Thursday, December 11, 2014

NBA 2014-2015: Performance Ratings & Power Ratings thru Wednesday 12/10/14



Here is our 3rd installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index].  As a reminder this model uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas.  New this season I have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores (if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower grades were better).  Here is where each team stands through last night’s action:

OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL

SOS ADJ

SU
Team
RANK

RANK

RANK

RATING
RANK

RECORD
Memphis
4

3

1

166.4
1

17-4
Cleveland
2

8

2

162.8
2

13-7
San Antonio
11

1

2

157.7
3

16-6
Houston
11

5

4

147.3
4

16-5
L.A. Clippers
6

10

5

145.8
5

16-5
Dallas
1

26

7

140.4
6

17-7
Toronto
2

28

10

139.9
7

16-6
Washington
15

6

8

137.4
8

15-6
Atlanta
18

2

6

136.2
9

15-6
Portland
15

7

9

135.5
10

17-5
Golden State
21

3

11

134.3
11

19-2
Sacramento
11

18

14

132.6
12

11-11
Denver
5

23

13

131.5
13

10-12
Utah
9

20

15

129.2
14

6-16
New Orleans
8

26

15

128.1
15

10-11
Chicago
9

15

12

127.9
16

13-8
Minnesota
14

22

17

124.2
17

5-16
Miami
17

23

20

114.3
18

10-12
Indiana
27

8

21

113.8
19

7-15
Boston
25

11

21

113.7
20

7-13
L.A. Lakers
7

30

24

113.6
21

6-16
Charlotte
26

11

23

112.1
22

6-15
Detroit
22

13

18

111.5
23

3-19
Milwaukee
19

17

19

109.3
24

11-12
Phoenix
20

25

25

105.5
25

12-11
Brooklyn
24

16

26

102.1
26

8-12
Oklahoma City
23

21

27

98.7
27

8-13
Orlando
29

13

28

97.6
28

9-15
Philadelphia
30

19

29

80.7
29

2-19
New York
28

29

30

69.3
30

4-20

Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or lower than expected.

Memphis: the Grizzlies remain in the top spot for the third consecutive installment of the SBPI although the Cavaliers are making a run towards that reign.  

Golden State: the Warriors do have the best record in the NBA at 19-2 but check in at #11 based on a 21st ranked offense – they do not grade well in any offensive category besides EFG%, which is obviously the most important sparking their 19-2 record.  Amazingly they have the best DEF EFG% mark in the league as well.  To date they have played just below an average SOS, but look for that to ramp up significantly in the coming weeks when they face a majority of stronger Western Conference teams.

Top 11: of those teams in the SBPI nobody has more than 7 losses

Western Conference: of the top 15 teams in the above ratings 11 are from the West, and that does not include Oklahoma City who figure to make a big climb following the addition of Durant & Westbrook into their lineup

Philadelphia & New York: by far these two are the worst teams in the NBA & frankly we do not see that changing for most of the season

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

Team
Home PR
Away PR
Memphis
117.7
113.0
Golden State
112.9
108.9
San Antonio
115.9
111.9
Portland
113.0
109.0
Atlanta
113.1
109.1
Washington
113.3
109.3
Toronto
113.1
109.6
Dallas
113.1
109.6
New Orleans
116.5
113.0
Houston
114.0
110.5
L.A. Clippers
113.8
110.3
Cleveland
115.5
112.5
Milwaukee
113.6
110.6
Denver
111.5
108.5
Phoenix
112.6
110.1
Sacramento
111.1
108.6
Oklahoma City
111.7
109.2
Charlotte
112.9
110.9
Boston
113.1
111.1
Miami
113.2
111.2
Brooklyn
111.7
109.7
Chicago
115.0
113.0
Indiana
113.2
111.2
Utah
110.2
108.2
Minnesota
114.5
112.5
New York
103.9
101.9
Orlando
111.1
109.1
L.A. Lakers
113.1
111.1
Detroit
112.9
110.9
Philadelphia
106.9
104.9

These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.  As always let’s take a look at Thursday night’s action using the above ratings:

Cleveland at Oklahoma City (-4.5): the above ratings would set this at CLE -1 but that is largely based on the results the Thunder gave us without Russell Westbrook & Kevin Durant in the lineup.  Is the addition of those two worth 5.5 points?  Probably even more than that – but knowing how well Lebron has played against the Thunder during his career, and the fact Cleveland is hot coming into this one I would suggest no action on this game.

Houston (-1) at Sacramento: my ratings have this game about SAC -1 so a 2pt variance is not enough to warrant action strictly on line value derived from this exercise.

Since it remains too early in the season to use performance and its impact on Pythagorean record we will skip that portion until the numbers settle in some & they can be used to better forecast.  Instead let’s take a look at where each team stands ATS wise thus far:


ATS RECORD
Team
WIN
LOSS
%
Golden State
15
6
71.4%
Milwaukee
15
8
65.2%
Atlanta
13
8
61.9%
Toronto
13
9
59.1%
Sacramento
13
9
59.1%
Orlando
14
10
58.3%
Portland
12
9
57.1%
Indiana
12
9
57.1%
Memphis
12
9
57.1%
Phoenix
12
10
54.5%
Dallas
13
11
54.2%
Houston
11
10
52.4%
New Orleans
11
10
52.4%
Philadelphia
11
10
52.4%
Oklahoma City
10
10
50.0%
San Antonio
11
11
50.0%
Boston
10
10
50.0%
Denver
10
11
47.6%
L.A. Clippers
10
11
47.6%
Utah
10
12
45.5%
Cleveland
9
11
45.0%
L.A. Lakers
9
12
42.9%
Miami
9
12
42.9%
Washington
9
12
42.9%
Chicago
9
12
42.9%
Brooklyn
8
12
40.0%
Minnesota
8
12
40.0%
Charlotte
7
12
36.8%
New York
8
16
33.3%
Detroit
6
16
27.3%

How good are bookmakers at setting odds?  Eight of the thirty teams in the NBA are currently playing to within one game of .500 in their ATS record & twelve are within two games of .500.  As a reminder from a previous entry you can use these ATS records along with the ratings above to locate teams to play on or against – you would be looking for strong teams in the ratings with weak ATS records & vice versa.

Thanks for reading.  In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football winds down we will post this article more frequently.

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014

No comments:

Post a Comment