If you are a statistical analyzer, and break down numbers on
NFL games with any sort of regularity, you know that TO margin is an incredibly
important statistic in the outcome of all games. Straight up, ATS – doesn’t matter. Perform well in this area, be it taking care
of the ball, or taking the ball away from your opponent on a regular basis, and
the likelihood you are playing football come January greatly increases. Most NFL fans, even the casual fan that
doesn’t get too involved in breaking stats down is aware of this
phenomenon. But how good a tool can it
be to predict future outcomes, whether it be on a week to week basis trying to
pick straight up winners in your office pool, picking a few games to wager your
hard earned cash on, or even trying to predict the chances your team has at
making the playoffs? It’s very useful,
and below I will show you in Part I of my NFL Turnover Analysis one way it can
be used, with more entries to follow discussing additional angles and ways to
utilize this one stat.
In Part I let’s examine the relationship between turnovers,
points scored vs. points against (which is a team’s points margin), and
projected records based on those two stats.
Most handicappers and others who work with turnovers in
their models will value these at approximately being worth 4 points either way
– takeaway’s are worth +4pts, while giveaway’s impact points margin
(4pts). Of course this number is not set
in stone, and can be debated – you may find turnovers are worth a different
amount, but since that is a sort of “industry standard”, I will use that today
for this analysis. In reality, any
number you select within reason (the number has to be worth anywhere between a
minimum 2pts and a maximum 5pts because a turnover either way leads to the
possibility of scoring or allowing points – working with estimated % chances of
scoring/allowing a FG/TD will allow you to derive your own worth of a turnover)
will work as long as it is consistent across the board for each team. By using that method of “valuing” turnovers,
we can calculate a new points margin based on a team’s pure play performance –
stripping away the advantage/disadvantage turnovers had on their points margin. This is a valuable way to place a barometer
on how team’s truly performed, statistically speaking, in their games.
Let’s look at a matrix with 2011 information (which would
have been used heading into last year, 2012):
|
2011
|
TO
|
*Normalized
|
2011
|
New
Proj
|
Wins
|
|
|
Margin
|
Adv/(Dis)
|
Margin
|
Record
|
Record
|
Impact
|
|
|
ARI
|
(2.06)
|
(3.25)
|
1.19
|
8-8
|
9-7
|
1
|
|
ATL
|
3.25
|
2.00
|
1.25
|
10-6
|
9-7
|
-1
|
|
BAL
|
7.00
|
0.50
|
6.50
|
12-4
|
11-5
|
-1
|
|
BUF
|
(3.88)
|
0.50
|
(4.38)
|
6-10
|
5-11
|
-1
|
|
CAR
|
(1.44)
|
0.25
|
(1.69)
|
6-10
|
7-9
|
1
|
|
CHI
|
0.75
|
0.50
|
0.25
|
8-8
|
8-8
|
|
|
CIN
|
1.31
|
0.00
|
1.31
|
9-7
|
9-7
|
|
|
CLE
|
(5.56)
|
0.25
|
(5.81)
|
4-12
|
5-11
|
1
|
|
DAL
|
1.38
|
1.50
|
(0.13)
|
8-8
|
8-8
|
|
|
DEN
|
(5.06)
|
(2.50)
|
(2.56)
|
8-8
|
6-10
|
-2
|
|
DET
|
5.13
|
2.75
|
2.38
|
10-6
|
10-6
|
|
|
GB
|
12.56
|
6.00
|
6.56
|
15-1
|
11-5
|
-4
|
|
HOU
|
6.44
|
1.75
|
4.69
|
10-6
|
11-5
|
1
|
|
IND
|
(11.69)
|
(3.00)
|
(8.69)
|
2-14
|
4-12
|
2
|
|
JAC
|
(5.38)
|
1.25
|
(6.63)
|
5-11
|
5-11
|
|
|
KC
|
(7.88)
|
(0.50)
|
(7.38)
|
7-9
|
4-12
|
-3
|
|
MIA
|
1.00
|
(1.50)
|
2.50
|
6-10
|
10-6
|
4
|
|
MIN
|
(6.81)
|
(0.75)
|
(6.06)
|
3-13
|
5-11
|
2
|
|
NE
|
10.50
|
4.25
|
6.25
|
13-3
|
11-5
|
-2
|
|
NO
|
13.00
|
(0.75)
|
13.75
|
13-3
|
14-2
|
1
|
|
NYG
|
(0.38)
|
1.75
|
(2.13)
|
9-7
|
7-9
|
-2
|
|
NYJ
|
0.88
|
(1.25)
|
2.13
|
8-8
|
9-7
|
1
|
|
OAK
|
(4.63)
|
(1.00)
|
(3.63)
|
8-8
|
6-10
|
-2
|
|
PHI
|
4.06
|
(3.50)
|
7.56
|
8-8
|
12-4
|
4
|
|
PIT
|
6.13
|
(3.25)
|
9.38
|
12-4
|
13-3
|
1
|
|
SD
|
1.81
|
(1.75)
|
3.56
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
2
|
|
SF
|
9.44
|
7.00
|
2.44
|
13-3
|
10-6
|
-3
|
|
SEA
|
0.38
|
2.00
|
(1.63)
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
|
|
STL
|
(13.38)
|
(1.25)
|
(12.13)
|
2-14
|
2-14
|
|
|
TB
|
(12.94)
|
(4.00)
|
(8.94)
|
4-12
|
4-12
|
|
|
TEN
|
0.50
|
0.25
|
0.25
|
9-7
|
8-8
|
-1
|
|
WAS
|
(4.94)
|
(3.75)
|
(1.19)
|
5-11
|
7-9
|
2
|
Legend:
2011 Margin:
points scored – points against
TO Adv/(Dis):
represents the per game impact each team’s turnovers had on their points
margin. This number is derived by taking
the total TO Margin on the season, dividing by 16 to get a “per game” TO
Margin, then multiplying by 4 because as mentioned above, I am valuing each
turnover to be worth 4pts
Normalized Margin:
calculated by taking 2010 Margin – TO Adv/(Dis). This figure represents the points margin each
team would have w/o the impact of turnovers
2011 Record:
straight forward, each team’s true SU record
New Projected Record:
uses the Normalized Margin calculation, and fits each into a matrix (that is
relatively standard across the industry) which plugs teams into certain records
based on their points margin. It is
generally assumed that team’s who outscore their opponents by 1.5ppg will go
9-7, 3ppg 10-6, 5.5ppg 11-5 and so on increasing ppg by 2.5pts for each win –
and using the reciprocal of each of these ppg marks for losing records. Note, since these figures are quoted in
decimals, the sum of 252 wins does not equal 256, the amount we see in an
entire NFL season if there are no ties.
Wins Impact:
calculated by taking New Projected Record – 2011 Record. This column basically shows the impact
turnovers had on each team’s actual SU wins and losses.
Now that you understand the data, here is where it gets useful. As mentioned, a “model” or any analysis is
only good if you backtest it, and prove that it has worked in the past. You can read about models, statistical
impacts of various items on games, but unless it has been proven to be a solid
indicator of performance in the past, you will be wasting your time.
Let’s first focus on the teams I have highlighted in red,
those are the team’s that achieved a record in 2011 that was above and beyond
their actual performance disregarding the impact of turnovers. These team’s we forecasted to drop in wins
from 2011 to 2012 because as we know, turnovers typically, but not always,
revert back to the mean – so a team’s performance that was positively impacted
by a strong TO margin the prior season often sees the opposite occur in the
very next season. And wouldn’t you know,
of the 6 teams we forecast to have a drop in wins last year, 6 actually did
drop FOR ANOTHER SOLID INDICATOR:
- DEN: 8 to 6 (we disregarded all DEN statistical angles heading
into LY because of Peyton Manning addition)
- GB: 15 to 11
- KC: 7 to 4
- NE: 13 to 11
- NYG: 9 to 7
- OAK: 8 to 6
- SF: 13 to 10
Now let’s move onto the team’s that were negatively impacted
by TO margin in 2011, which means we expected this group to have a stronger
record in 2012 comparing to 2011 – and once again, of the 6 teams we forecast to
have an increase to their win total, 4 did while a pair dropped including SD
slipping one game for the second straight season:
- IND: 2 to 4
- MIA: 6 to 10
- MIN: 3 to 5
- PHI: 8 to 12 – missed on all Eagles statistical projections in
2012
- SD: 8 to 10 – like LY the Chargers also missed by 1 game falling
to 7-9
- WAS: 5 to 7
Looking back on 2011 figures used to project 2012 standings,
this analysis had 12 teams sliding one way or another in wins – and of those 12,
10 moved the way predicted, and only 2 moved opposite – and one of those, SD,
was by just one game.
Next, let’s examine this data for the upcoming season – here
is data based on last season that can be used to forecast the 2013 NFL season:
|
2012
|
TO
|
*Normalized
|
2012
|
New
Proj
|
Wins
|
|
|
Margin
|
Adv/(Dis)
|
Margin
|
Record
|
Record
|
Impact
|
|
|
ARI
|
(6.69)
|
(0.25)
|
(6.44)
|
5-11
|
4-12
|
-1
|
|
ATL
|
7.50
|
3.25
|
4.25
|
13-3
|
10-6
|
-3
|
|
BAL
|
3.38
|
2.25
|
1.13
|
10-6
|
9-7
|
-1
|
|
BUF
|
(5.69)
|
(3.25)
|
(2.44)
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
|
|
CAR
|
(0.38)
|
0.50
|
(0.88)
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
|
|
CHI
|
6.13
|
5.00
|
1.13
|
10-6
|
9-7
|
-1
|
|
CIN
|
4.44
|
1.00
|
3.44
|
10-6
|
10-6
|
|
|
CLE
|
(4.13)
|
0.75
|
(4.88)
|
5-11
|
5-11
|
|
|
DAL
|
(1.50)
|
(3.25)
|
1.75
|
8-8
|
9-7
|
1
|
|
DEN
|
12.00
|
(0.25)
|
12.25
|
13-3
|
14-2
|
1
|
|
DET
|
(4.06)
|
(4.00)
|
(0.06)
|
4-12
|
8-8
|
4
|
|
GB
|
6.06
|
1.75
|
4.31
|
11-5
|
11-5
|
|
|
HOU
|
5.31
|
3.00
|
2.31
|
12-4
|
10-6
|
-2
|
|
IND
|
(1.88)
|
(3.00)
|
1.13
|
11-5
|
9-7
|
-2
|
|
JAC
|
(11.81)
|
(0.75)
|
(11.06)
|
2-14
|
3-13
|
1
|
|
KC
|
(13.38)
|
(6.00)
|
(7.38)
|
2-14
|
4-12
|
2
|
|
MIA
|
(1.81)
|
(2.50)
|
0.69
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
1
|
|
MIN
|
1.94
|
(0.25)
|
2.19
|
10-6
|
10-6
|
|
|
NE
|
14.13
|
6.25
|
7.88
|
12-4
|
12-4
|
|
|
NO
|
0.56
|
0.50
|
0.06
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
1
|
|
NYG
|
5.31
|
3.50
|
1.81
|
9-7
|
9-7
|
|
|
NYJ
|
(5.88)
|
(3.50)
|
(2.38)
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
|
|
OAK
|
(9.56)
|
(1.75)
|
(7.81)
|
4-12
|
4-12
|
|
|
PHI
|
(10.25)
|
(6.00)
|
(4.25)
|
4-12
|
5-11
|
1
|
|
PIT
|
1.38
|
(2.50)
|
3.88
|
8-8
|
10-6
|
2
|
|
SD
|
0.00
|
0.50
|
(0.50)
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
1
|
|
SF
|
7.75
|
2.25
|
5.50
|
11-5
|
11-5
|
|
|
SEA
|
10.44
|
3.00
|
7.44
|
11-5
|
12-4
|
1
|
|
STL
|
(3.06)
|
(0.25)
|
(2.81)
|
7-9
|
6-10
|
-1
|
|
TB
|
(0.06)
|
0.75
|
(0.81)
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
|
|
TEN
|
(8.81)
|
(1.00)
|
(7.81)
|
6-10
|
4-12
|
-2
|
|
WAS
|
3.00
|
4.25
|
(1.25)
|
10-6
|
7-9
|
-3
|
Team’s that are likely to see a drop in their 2013 record
with a brief point regarding each:
- ATL (13): last season the Falcons tied the Broncos for the top
mark in the NFL at 13-3. However,
examining true performance showed DEN clearly was superior to ATL as far
as performance goes, even though ATL won the SU matchup early in the
season in that official’s debacle on MNF.
Expect ATL to drop back this season as their division continues to
improve, and ATL didn’t do much personnel wise to improve their team.
- HOU (12): the Texans won 12 games last season, but fell apart
late in the season dropping to the #3 seed in the AFC, leading to a
Divisional Rd loss @ NE. Despite
some big name additions this season I expect a shift in their TOM, leading
to a dip of 1-2 losses – but make no mistake, the Texans are the class of
the AFC South and will win that division barring significant injuries.
- IND (11): no team LY exceeded their true on the field
performance record wise than the Colts, as even though we projected the
Colts to increase their wins LY, we did not expect a double digit win
season for sure. Almost all of my
indicators point towards a dip in wins this year – perhaps even a
significant one down towards .500.
Yes, QB Andrew Luck looks like the real deal, however, the rest of
the roster does not stack up with the other AFC powers, the Colts schedule
is much tougher, and IND will feel a drop this season.
- TEN (6): the Titans are the lowest win team from LY I project
to drop in wins this coming season.
TEN had the 5th worst Points Margin LY, and a modest
(1.00) impact from TOM. With no
significant personnel changes, and uncertainty at QB, I look for TEN to
drop at least 1 win in the coming season, settling into a Top 5 draft pick
come the 2014 NFL Draft.
- WAS (10): along with IND, we projected the Redskins to improve
LY and that they did, winning the NFC East title on the final Sunday
behind rookie QB Robert Griffin III.
However, outside CHI & NE, no team enjoyed a more favorable
impact from TOM than WAS, which may not bode well for the 2013
season. With the injury to RG3, TOM
reversion, increased SOS, and an improving & tough division, I see the
Skins falling back towards .500 this coming season.
Now let’s focus on the team’s that should see at least one
more win than last year:
- DET (4): like all 3 of my leading indicators (points per game,
yards per play, first downs per game – see article from May), the TOM Part
I supports an increase in wins for DET – perhaps as many as +4 wins
climbing towards the .500 mark. LY,
only KC & PHI suffered more negative impact from TOM than the Lions
did, a mark that should shift some at the very least come this
season. The Lions are clearly one
of the biggest projected wins increase teams, probably the biggest.
- KC (2): many were picking the Chiefs to compete for an AFC
West title LY coming off a divisional crown in 2010; we however stuck with
our indicators and projected a dip from their 7-9 mark of 2011 and that is
exactly what happened, slipping all the way down to just 2 wins and the #1
overall selection in the NFL Draft.
This season Andy Reid takes over at HC, Alex Smith was brought in
to play QB, and the schedule is more favorable; expect the Chiefs to
battle back and post at least 5 wins this coming season.
- PIT (8): perhaps no team is being overlooked more heading into
2013 than the Steelers. I am bullish
on the Steelers as being the AFC North favorites, as their defense
remained stout LY checking in at #3, but the offense and turnovers really
cost them at critical times.
Considering PIT rarely plays a 3rd place divisional
schedule, and Big Ben appears healthy heading into 2013, and I feel PIT
will get back to the top of their division, and be dangerous come playoff
time – perhaps even the second best team in the AFC behind DEN.
In summary, heading into 2012 there were 12 teams that were
projected to slide up or down in wins based on turnover impact – 10 moved the
way projected.
This season we have just 8 teams projected to slide up or
down in wins based on this initial look at TOM.
That will conclude Part I of our Turnover Margin
analysis. Trust me when I say I have a
lot more great analysis related to turnovers that will be discussed in the
coming week’s right here on my blog.
Thanks for reading, just a few days till preseason football
gets going!
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
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