When handicapping NFL Preseason action I find the #1 aspect
to examine is depth & GAME EXPERIENCE at the QB spot. I have found over the years the teams that
have the deepest, most experienced QB depth fares well in preseason games. The key here is to locate solid, experienced
2nd and 3rd string QB’s, who can likely exploit the 2nd
and 3rd defensive units they will be facing.
|
Starter
|
Backup
|
3rd string
|
4th string
|
|
|
ARI
|
PALMER
|
STANTON
|
LINDLEY
|
|
|
ATL
|
RYAN
|
D.DAVIS
|
RENFREE
|
DOEGE
|
|
BAL
|
FLACCO
|
TAYLOR
|
HANIE
|
|
|
BUF
|
KOLB
|
MANUEL
|
TUEL
|
|
|
CAR
|
NEWTON
|
D.ANDERSON
|
CLAUSEN
|
C.CAMERON
|
|
CHI
|
CUTLER
|
J.MCCOWN
|
BLANCHARD
|
|
|
CIN
|
DALTON
|
J.JOHNSON
|
SKELTON
|
Z.ROBINSON
|
|
CLE
|
WEEDEN
|
J.CAMPBELL
|
HOYER
|
|
|
DAL
|
ROMO
|
ORTON
|
N.STEPHENS
|
|
|
DEN
|
P.MANNING
|
OSWEILER
|
DYSERT
|
KATZ
|
|
DET
|
STAFFORD
|
S.HILL
|
K.MOORE
|
T.LEWIS
|
|
GB
|
RODGERS
|
HARRELL
|
B.COLEMAN
|
|
|
HOU
|
SCHAUB
|
YATES
|
KEENUM
|
S.MCGEE
|
|
IND
|
LUCK
|
M.HASSELBECK
|
HARNISH
|
|
|
JAC
|
GILBERT
|
HENNE
|
KAFKA
|
M.SCOTT
|
|
KC
|
A.SMITH
|
C.DANIEL
|
BRAY
|
STANZI
|
|
MIA
|
TANNEHILL
|
M.MOORE
|
DEVLIN
|
|
|
MIN
|
PONDER
|
CASSEL
|
BETHEL-THOMPSON
|
|
|
NE
|
BRADY
|
MALLETT
|
TEBOW
|
|
|
NO
|
BREES
|
S.WALLACE
|
L.MCCOWN
|
R.GRIFFIN
|
|
NYG
|
E.MANNING
|
CARR
|
NASSIB
|
PAINTER
|
|
NYJ
|
SANCHEZ
|
G.SMITH
|
M.SIMMS
|
MCELROY
|
|
OAK
|
FLYNN
|
PRYOR
|
T.WILSON
|
MCGLOIN
|
|
PHI
|
VICK
|
FOLES
|
BARKLEY
|
DIXON
|
|
PIT
|
ROETHLISBERGER
|
L.JONES
|
GRADKOWSKI
|
J.WILSON
|
|
SD
|
RIVERS
|
WHITEHURST
|
SORENSEN
|
|
|
SF
|
KAEPERNICK
|
C.MCCOY
|
TOLZIEN
|
B.DANIELS
|
|
SEA
|
R.WILSON
|
QUINN
|
T.JACKSON
|
|
|
STL
|
BRADFORD
|
CLEMENS
|
A.DAVIS
|
|
|
TB
|
FREEMAN
|
ORLOVSKY
|
GLENNON
|
A.WEBER
|
|
TEN
|
LOCKER
|
FITZPATRICK
|
R.SMITH
|
ENDERLE
|
|
WAS
|
GRIFFIN
|
COUSINS
|
GROSSMAN
|
P.WHITE
|
Based on the QB depth charts by team listed above, I have
identified the following teams as targets (either favorable or unfavorable) for
the upcoming preseason:
Favorable (listed
in alphabetical order):
ARI:
Palmer, Stanton, Lindley. There are many
aspects to like about this 3 man QB rotation, most of which is the fact Carson
Palmer is the new starter, and will thus likely see more series and plays than
normal to get better acclimated to his new coaching staff, teammates and
weapons. #2 Drew Stanton, in his 7th
NFL season, joined ARI this offseason and has appeared in 12 career games,
including extended action in 2010. 3rd
stringer Ryan Lindley appeared in 6 games his rookie year, and although he
struggled mightily last year with a ratio of 0/7, that in game experience
should help when facing 2nd and 3rd stringers from the
opponents defense.
BAL:
Flacco, Taylor, Hanie. Flacco, fresh off
his new big dollar contract, doesn’t figure to see extended preseason action,
meaning more snaps for Tyrod Taylor and Caleb Hanie. T2 has seen limited regular season action
outside last year’s Wk17 matchup @ CIN where he played pretty well considering
it was on the road versus a divisional rival that was heading to the
playoffs. However, Taylor has played
well (for the most part) in the last two preseason’s, and is equally as
dangerous with his legs as his arm.
Caleb Hanie joined the Ravens this offseason from CHI, and has played in
10 regular season games over 6 years including extended action in 2011. The Ravens should have a significant
advantage late in preseason games with Taylor’s legs, and when Hanie faces 2nd
& 3rd string defenders.
CAR:
Newton, D. Anderson, Clausen, C. Cameron.
Obviously Cam Newton will not see a ton of preseason action, but the
Panthers have 3 backups, 2 of which have played in the regular season, which
should equal plus QB play late in these preseason games. Anderson enters his 3rd season as
the CAR backup, and although he has not played much in the last two years, he
started for CLE multiple seasons posting some impressive numbers, especially in
2007. Clausen enters his 4th
season in the NFL, all with CAR, and has not played in the regular season since
2010, pre Cam Newton. He did not play
well that season, a big reason CAR burned a first round pick on a QB for a 2nd
straight season heading into 2011. That
being said Clausen has talent, and should at worst offer neutral QB play versus
2nd and 3rd string defenses. Colby Cameron is in his first year after posting
great numbers at Louisiana Tech last season.
CIN:
Dalton, J. Johnson, Skelton, Z. Robinson.
Like Flacco & Newton above do not expect to see an abundance of Andy
Dalton snaps during the preseason as he is fresh off leading CIN to back to
back playoff appearances. Josh Johnson,
in his 5th season but 2nd with CIN, has appeared in 27
games during his career (all with TB), but has limited passing statistics only
attempting 177 in those games. 2009 was
the season he played most, before Josh Freeman took over. 3rd stringer Josh Skelton joins
CIN this year after three years with ARI where he saw significant, extended
action appearing in 20 games and attempting over 600 passes; he may be the most
experienced 3rd string QB on any NFL depth chart (outside Rex Grossman),
which is typically a massive edge in preseason handicapping. Last on the depth chart is Zac Robinson, who
enters his 2nd season and has yet to take a snap. Depending on how much Robinson plays the QB
spot could be a HUGE edge for the Bengals this preseason.
CLE:
Weeden, J. Campbell, Hoyer. Although the
starter with CLE, whoever that may be, would be ranked among the worst in the
NFL, the depth at this spot should be an advantage for the Browns during the
preseason. Last year’s starter Brandon Weeden
played pretty well overall considering he was a rookie and didn’t have a ton of
weapons around him. I expect Weeden to
win the starter’s job in 2013, and also see extended snaps this preseason to
give him more experience. 2nd
stringer Jason Campbell has been a starter in the NFL, playing in 77 games with
a career QB Rating of a solid 82.7. 3rd
stringer Brian Hoyer enters his 5th season, but just his first year
with CLE after stints with NE & ARI.
Although he has limited game experience he is widely regarded as one of
the better backup QB’s in the NFL, and should help boost his stock some facing
2nd and 3rd string defenses. I would not be surprised if in the next year
or two Hoyer gets a deal similar to what Flynn landed.
NO: Brees,
Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin. We all know
about Drew Brees, and expect HC Sean Payton to play him limited snaps in the
preseason. That is precisely why they
are currently carrying 4 QBs, and the 2nd stringer is the experienced
Seneca Wallace. Wallace has played 9
seasons, with 2 clubs CLE & SEA. His
most significant action came in 2008 with SEA, and overall in his career he has
played in 62 games and attempted 750+ passes.
With a career QB Rating of 81.3, and the ability to beat teams with his
legs as well, look for Wallace to be a plus under center. 3rd stringer Luke McCown enters
his 10th NFL season with his 5th different team. He has never appeared in more than 5 games in
a season, and does not have extensive regular season experience; however, he
has played in the NFL for 9 years, and appeared in many preseason games which
will help him at least hold his own versus lower string defenses. 4th stringer Ryan Griffin is in
his rookie season out of Tulane.
WAS:
Griffin III, Cousins, Grossman, P. White.
Don’t expect many snaps taken by RGIII this preseason as he returns from
his torn ACL suffered in last season’s playoff loss to SEA. That being said the Skins are still in
relatively good shape at the QB position, with 2nd year guy Kirk
Cousins set to be the backup. Cousins
filled in admirably for RGIII last season, playing in 3 games and posting a
101.6 QB Rating, obviously very solid.
He should continue to flourish in HC Mike Shanahan’s QB friendly system. 3rd stringer Rex Grossman enters
his 11th season, and has seen extensive NFL action through his
career. He was the starter for CHI in
2006, and for WAS in 2011. He did not
take any snaps last season, but I feel very confident in his abilities versus 2nd
and 3rd string defenders this preseason. Grossman could even be traded if other teams
suffer a QB injury. Pat White is the 4th
stringer has not completed a pass in the NFL, but has the legs to cause
problems versus lower level defenders in 4th quarters during
preseason action. There is no guarantee
White even sees snaps under center, which if he didn’t would only be an
advantage to WAS.
Unfavorable
(listed in alphabetical order):
ATL: Ryan,
D. Davis, Renfree, Doege. To put it
bluntly the Falcons are in a lot of trouble under center when Matt Ryan isn’t
taking the snaps. 2nd
stringer Dominique Davis enters his 2nd season, 3rd
stringer Sean Renfree & 4th stringer Seth Doege are rookies, and
no QB outside Ryan has taken a snap in the NFL.
Look for the ATL offense to really struggle this preseason, especially
in Gms1, 2 & 4 when Ryan will not be taking a bulk of the snaps.
DEN: P.
Manning, Osweiler, Dysert, Katz. The
Broncos QB depth chart is very similar to that of ATL. Outside MVP candidate Peyton Manning DEN has
basically no NFL experience from any of their three backups. Brock Osweiler remains listed as the #2 – he
enters his 2nd season and only attempted 4 passes during the 2012
regular season. 3rd stringer
Zac Dysert was selected in the 7th round out of Miami, OH and enters
his rookie season while 4th stringer Ryan Katz, out of San Diego
State, enters his rookie season as well.
Look for the Broncos to struggle with QB play once Peyton Manning exits
– and also look for Peyton to take less snaps than most starters this
preseason.
NYJ:
Sanchez, G. Smith, M. Simms, McElroy.
One of the biggest QB controversies heading into the 2013 regular season
is that of the NYJ – will Mark Sanchez hang onto his job, or will first round
draft pick Geno Smith take over? That
question will likely not be answered until early September, but for preseason
action look for both to take about the same amount of snaps. Although Sanchez has the experience edge
Smith brings more measurables to the table and may be the favorite to win the
job – if not when the season starts as it progresses. With Simms and McElroy also in the rotation
the entire group is filled with question marks as QB play appears to be a big
issue for NYJ not only during the preseason but as the regular season
commences.
In addition to QB rotations, coaching trends are also a
critical aspect of preseason handicapping.
Why you may ask? The answer is
some coaches take these games more serious than others – for some winning these
games is believed to strengthen a team’s confidence, while others are more worried
about getting through each game without injuries. Which coaches do well or poorly in the
preseason? Here are Preseason records as
researched by my buddy Jeff Loop, aka, “The Mayor of Indy”:
Head Coach Trends as measured by Total ATS record:
|
|
|
ATS Record
|
Win %
|
Situation
|
Notes
|
|
DET
|
SCHWARTZ
|
10-5-1
|
66.7%
|
Overall
|
12-4 SU
|
|
PIT
|
TOMLIN
|
15-10
|
60.0%
|
Overall
|
19-6 SU
|
|
WAS
|
SHANAHAN
|
7-5
|
58.3%
|
Overall
|
49-23 SU Lifetime
|
|
SEA
|
CARROLL
|
19-9-1
|
67.9%
|
Overall
|
8-4 ATS w SEA; 7-1 ATS
L2yrs
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
SMITH
|
1-8 SU L9; 2-7-1 ATS on
road Lifetime
|
|||
|
MIA
|
PHILBIN
|
0-4
|
0.0%
|
Overall
|
|
Head Coach Trends as measured by SU record in Specific Weeks:
|
|
|
SU Record
|
|
Situation
|
Notes
|
|
CIN
|
LEWIS
|
14-6
|
70.0%
|
Wks 1&4
|
|
|
DET
|
SCHWARTZ
|
4-0
|
100.0%
|
Wk4
|
|
|
GB
|
MCCARTHY
|
10-4
|
71.4%
|
Wks 2&3
|
|
|
HOU
|
KUBIAK
|
10-4
|
71.4%
|
Wks 1&2
|
|
|
NE
|
BELICHICK
|
10-4
|
71.4%
|
Wk1
|
|
|
NYG
|
COUGHLIN
|
12-6
|
66.7%
|
Wks 2&4
|
|
|
NO
|
PAYTON
|
6-1
|
85.7%
|
Wk3
|
|
|
PIT
|
TOMLIN
|
6-0
|
100.0%
|
Wk4
|
|
|
WAS
|
SHANAHAN
|
25-8
|
75.8%
|
Wks 1&4
|
includes DEN & WAS
|
|
STL
|
FISHER
|
25-9
|
73.5%
|
Wks 2&4
|
includes TEN & STL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CIN
|
LEWIS
|
2-8
|
20.0%
|
Wk3
|
|
|
GB
|
MCCARTHY
|
4-10
|
28.6%
|
Wks 1&4
|
|
|
NYG
|
COUGHLIN
|
2-7
|
22.2%
|
Wk3
|
|
|
NYJ
|
RYAN
|
0-4
|
0.0%
|
Wk1
|
|
|
NO
|
PAYTON
|
1-6
|
14.3%
|
Wk4
|
|
|
STL
|
FISHER
|
4-11
|
26.7%
|
Wk3
|
|
Over/Under Trends by Head Coach:
|
|
|
OVER Trends
|
Notes
|
|
|
DET
|
SCHWARTZ
|
9-4-3
|
69.2%
|
|
|
GB
|
MCCARTHY
|
20-8
|
71.4%
|
Just 1-3 OVER in 2012
|
|
HOU
|
KUBIAK
|
20-8
|
71.4%
|
|
|
NYJ
|
RYAN
|
9-6-1
|
60.0%
|
Just 1-3 OVER in 2012
|
|
NE
|
BELICHICK
|
45-27
|
62.5%
|
Just 4-4 L2yrs
|
|
SEA
|
CARROLL
|
11-5
|
68.8%
|
8-4 with SEA
|
|
STL
|
FISHER
|
17-7-1
|
70.8%
|
includes TEN & STL;
3-1 OVER in 2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
UNDER Trends
|
|
||
|
BAL
|
HARBAUGH, JOHN
|
11-7-1
|
61.1%
|
Just 2-4-1 UNDER L7gms
|
|
ATL
|
SMITH
|
12-8
|
60.0%
|
Just 4-4 L2yrs
|
|
PIT
|
TOMLIN
|
15-10
|
60.0%
|
Just 2-6 UNDER L2yrs
|
|
SF
|
HARBAUGH, JIM
|
5-2-1
|
71.4%
|
|
This article discusses two of the most critical areas I find
for preseason NFL handicapping: QB depth and Head Coach trends.
Check back in the coming weeks leading up to the season as
we continue breaking down & analyzing the biggest, baddest, most critical
metrics for handicapping the NFL Regular Season.
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