I didn’t notice many discussing this statistic about 6 years
ago when I started crunching the numbers, and really touting its importance
whenever, wherever I could. And year
after year, season after season, this metric is about as close to a “LOCK” as
you can get when talking NFL statistics and their correlation to points scored,
which leads to SU wins/losses, and ATS win/losses. There really are so many angles to take when
simply using this one statistic, but let’s start by combining this metric with
TOM, and show how critical those two combined are to a team’s performance.
How rare is it for a team to win a game, but lose both of
those statistics in that same game? The
answer is it’s extremely rare; it’s absolutely critical for a team to excel in
both those areas. To show the point,
let’s go back the last 4 seasons, and show how many times it occurred – a team
winning the game, but being negative in TOM and NET YPA:
|
Game
|
Winner
|
TOM
|
NET YPA
|
|
|
2012
|
TB@CAR
|
TB 27-21
|
(2)
|
(2.5)
|
|
CAR@CHI
|
CHI 23-22
|
(1)
|
(3.3)
|
|
|
JAC@HOU
|
HOU 43-37
|
(2)
|
(1.3)
|
|
|
CLE@IND
|
IND 17-13
|
(1)
|
(1.0)
|
|
|
IND@TEN
|
IND 19-13
|
(1)
|
(0.1)
|
|
|
IND@DET
|
IND 35-33
|
(2)
|
(0.2)
|
|
|
NYG@WAS
|
WAS 17-16
|
(1)
|
(0.2)
|
|
|
ARI@NE
|
ARI 20-18
|
(1)
|
(0.9)
|
|
|
SEA@CHI
|
SEA 23-17
|
(1)
|
(1.1)
|
|
|
KC@NO
|
KC 27-24
|
(2)
|
(0.1)
|
|
|
2011
|
CIN@DEN
|
DEN 24-22
|
(2)
|
(0.3)
|
|
SF@DET
|
SF 25-19
|
(2)
|
(1.1)
|
|
|
HOU@NO
|
NO 40-33
|
(1)
|
(1.2)
|
|
|
TB@NO
|
NO 27-16
|
(1)
|
(0.2)
|
|
|
DAL@NE
|
NE 20-16
|
(2)
|
(0.9)
|
|
|
HOU@CIN
|
HOU 20-19
|
(2)
|
(0.8)
|
|
|
DAL@NYJ
|
NYJ 27-24
|
(1)
|
(1.6)
|
|
|
BUF@NYJ
|
NYJ 28-24
|
(2)
|
(0.9)
|
|
|
STL@CLE
|
STL 13-12
|
(1)
|
(1.5)
|
|
|
KC@SD
|
SD 20-17
|
(1)
|
(0.4)
|
|
|
ARI@STL
|
ARI 23-20
|
(1)
|
(1.4)
|
|
|
MIA@DAL
|
DAL 20-19
|
(1)
|
(1.1)
|
|
|
|
||||
|
2010
|
CAR@NO
|
NO 16-14
|
(1)
|
(0.3)
|
|
PHI@NYG
|
PHI 38-31
|
(1)
|
(0.6)
|
|
|
BAL@NE
|
NE 23-20
|
(2)
|
(1.6)
|
|
|
CHI@CAR
|
CHI 23-6
|
(1)
|
(0.4)
|
|
|
MIA@NYJ
|
MIA 10-6
|
(1)
|
(2.6)
|
|
|
HOU@WAS
|
HOU 30-27
|
(1)
|
(1.6)
|
|
|
OAK@ARI
|
ARI 24-23
|
(2)
|
(2.3)
|
|
|
TEN@SD
|
SD 33-25
|
(1)
|
(0.4)
|
|
|
2009
|
CLE@KC
|
CLE 41-34
|
(2)
|
(4.2)
|
|
TEN@HOU
|
TEN 20-17
|
(1)
|
(1.3)
|
|
|
DEN@IND
|
IND 28-16
|
(2)
|
(0.8)
|
|
|
OAK@DEN
|
OAK 20-19
|
(2)
|
(3.5)
|
|
|
WAS@DAL
|
DAL 7-6
|
(1)
|
(1.1)
|
|
|
CAR@TB
|
CAR 28-21
|
(1)
|
(2.7)
|
Believe it or not, there is every game over the last 4 seasons
where a team WON the game SU, yet LOST both TOM & YPA in that same
game. As a reminder, there are 256 wins
per season across the NFL; since we are looking at FOUR years here multiply
that by 4 which equals 1,024 wins for this analysis. Of those winners only 36 of them were won by
a team that lost both the TOM & YPA in that same game. That equals 3.5% of the games played over the
last FOUR years! That is truly amazing!
Now, let’s move on to breaking down YPA on its own, as
simply by itself it has an enormous correlation to success. Over the same 4 seasons, 58 of 63 (92%) teams
that have finished with a NET POSITIVE YPA (Offensive YPA minus Defensive YPA)
have had an 8-8 or better record that season.
Who are the five teams that missed the mark?
- 2009 Washington Redskins,
who were 6.01 OFF YPA, 5.89 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.12 – that is
narrowly in the positive category, and WAS went 4-12.
- 2010 Tennessee Titans, who
were 6.36 OFF YPA, 5.96 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.39 – they went 6-10.
- 2012 Carolina Panthers,
who were 7.19 OFF YPA, 5.96 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +1.23 – they went 7-9
including the pair of wins teams picked up against them mentioned above. As another reminder this is a team we
are extremely bullish on heading into 2012, and would not be shocked to
see them win the competitive NFC South.
- 2012 Detroit Lions, who
were 6.43 OFF YPA, 6.12 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.31 – they only won 4
games, and once again are a team we are bullish on for the upcoming
season. See our other blog entries
including “2013 NFL Leading Indicators” for more discussion on the Lions.
- 2012 St. Louis Rams, who
were 6.19 OFF YPA, 6.13 DEF YPA for a NET YPA of +0.07 – extremely
narrowly in the positive category, and the Rams just missed going .500 at
7-9.
What’s more, examining the last 3 seasons, here are the
team’s that were positive in YPA each year, and where they rank in wins during
that same period:
|
Positive YPA '10, '11, '12
|
||
|
WINS
|
WINS RANK
|
|
|
NE
|
39
|
1
|
|
GB
|
36
|
2
|
|
BAL
|
34
|
4
|
|
PIT
|
32
|
5
|
|
*ATL
tied with GB's 36 wins but had NEG YPA in 2010
|
||
We can see just how solid this metric is for identifying the
best teams in the NFL – each of those teams has appeared in the Super Bowl over
those 3 seasons, with GB & BAL winning championships in ’10 & ’12
seasons. The Top 7, and 14 of 16 teams
in the NFL over the last three seasons as measured by SU wins were positive in
NET AVERAGE YPA over those seasons.
Now that we have discussed NET YPA, let’s focus on offensive
YPA, which is definitely more impactful compared to defensive YPA. The first angle I will present is some key by
year trends within the OYPA data:
- 2009: top 16 were all at
least 8-8
- 2010: 9 of the top 11 were
at least 8-8.
- 2011: top 12 were all at
least 8-8
- 2012: 10 of the top 13 were
8-8 with the three that missed #3 NO, #4 CAR & #10 TB going 7-9 (note
all NFC South teams, very competitive and offensive division)
- Summary: If you look at
the top 11 teams each year in OYPA since the 2009 season, 39 of the 44 finished
at least 8-8. Get that OYPA up and
your chances of reaching the playoffs dramatically increases.
Lastly, let’s move to defensive YPA. Although when testing statistically it does
not have quite the same impact on game to game results as OYPA does, it is
still useful and clear trends can be seen in the data – especially full seasons. Here are some of those key trends over the
last 4 seasons:
- 2009: 10 of top 11 were at
least 8-8.
- 2010: 8 of the top 9 were
at least 8-8.
- 2011: top 9 were all at
least 8-8
- 2012: top 8 were all at
least 8-8 with 7 of 8 winning 10+ (PIT going 8-8 lone non 10 win team)
- Summary: If you look at
the top 8 teams each year in DYPA since the 2009 season, an amazing 31 of
32 finished at least 8-8.
YPA, especially NET YPA, but also OYPA and to a lesser
degree DYPA all have significant impacts on the success of NFL teams on a week
to week basis. You saw all the numbers
above, and they came to a conclusion that the better you are in NET YPA, the
more likely you make the playoffs. And
any team that can come up with a top 10-ish YPA, whether OFF or DEF has a very
good chance at making the playoffs – or at the very least being in the mix as
the calendar turns to December.
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