As we sit here after a riveting weekend of hockey action,
one that saw four of the eight series end, and the other four series having
gone at least five games to date, there has been one clear as day trend in the
results thus far – the regular season meetings in most of these series was a
Nostradamusesque prediction of what we would see in the playoffs. Let’s take a closer look series by series,
you will be amazed by the findings.
Here are the four series that have ended, and the regular
season record for each series:
#5 Flyers over #4 Penguins 4-2: Philadelphia won four
of six vs. Pittsburgh
#4 Predators over #5 Red Wings 4-1: team’s split six
meetings, but Nashville did win the last two
#8 Kings over #1 Canucks 4-1: team’s split four
meetings, but LA has showed over last two seasons to have a firm grasp on
controlling the robust Canucks offense (see prior preview article), which
occurred once again in this series
#2 Blues over #7 Sharks 4-1: St. Louis was 4-0 vs.
San Jose, dominating play only allowing 3 combined goals over four games.
For the series that have ended, the winner in the playoffs at
worst split the regular season series with their opponent, twice won it
outright. Even the series that were
tied, the team that won the playoff matchup clearly showed they had the edge
between the teams during the regular season.
Now, let’s look closer at the four series that are still
going, and what those regular season matchups showed:
#8 Senators up 3-2 on #1 Rangers: Ottawa won 3 of 4 during regular season
#2 Bruins tied 3-3 with #7 Capitals: Washington won 3
of 4 during regular season
#3 Panthers up 3-2 on #6 Devils: team’s split four
meetings
#3 Coyotes up 3-2 on #6 Blackhawks: Phoenix won 3 of
4 during regular season
For the four series that are still undecided the team that
won the regular season series is up in two, tied in another; and the one series
that was tied during regular season, Washington vs. Boston, is heading to a
Game Seven – the ultimate tiebreaker!
What does it all mean?
Typically most analysts say you can throw out the regular season when
the playoffs come around as it is a different time of year. It’s hard to judge during the regular season
a team’s motivation on a game by game basis because there could be injuries,
days rest, winning and losing streaks that play a part in the outcomes of those
games. It can be hard to quantify those
variables, and the impact they play on the games. But in the playoffs, most of those variables mentioned
are evened out, and everyone is playing on a level playing field. This year it is very clear we have seen the
team who won the regular season series fare quite well in the playoffs, and it
will be interesting to see if the Rangers, Bruins or Blackhawks can become the
only team in the first round to win their series after losing the regular
season series. Of those three you have
to think Boston has the best chance as they are heading to a Game 7 on their home
ice, while both NY and CHI need to win on their opponents ice one more time,
and another game on their ice to advance.
What do I expect
to see in the four remaining series?
Senators vs. Rangers: the heat is getting real hot in
NYC after a critical Game Five loss on their home ice for the #1 seed NY
Rangers. It seems NY has carried most of
the play during this series, yet finds itself in an unthinkable 3-2 hole,
facing elimination tonight in Ottawa.
This series really shows why the NHL playoffs can be so exciting – or
frustrating – depending on which team you are rooting for. Setting aside Game One where the Rangers
turned it on about midway through the second and breezed to a 4-2 win, the Blue
Shirts have only managed to score 5 goals in the last four games. A lot of concern about the Rangers and their
chances at hoisting their first Cup since 1994 was based on their offense (or
lack thereof), especially their power play unit – if both had enough firepower
to score critical goals at critical points in the playoffs. So far it has proved to be a legitimate
concern as their offensive stars, namely Gaborik, Richards, and Dubinsky have
yet to score more than 1 goal in this series.
If it wasn’t for Brian Boyle and his 3 goals, especially his winner in
Game Two, this series would likely be over already. NY hopes that getting first line winger Carl
Hagelin back from a 3 game suspension will be the infusion they need to get
back to scoring more goals, and tying and ultimately winning this series. Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson has played
extremely well, matching save for save with Rangers goalie Henrik Lundqvist –
can he continue playing at this high a level?
That question could very well be the determining factor on who goes on
to win this series. I still think the
Rangers will get it done – they have not played 60 minutes of good hockey yet
in this series – tonight will be that night – and Game 7 will be on the horizon
on Wednesday. I also look for Henrik
Lundqvist to be an absolute stone wall over the last two games; almost single handedly
willing his team to victory.
Bruins vs. Capitals: what a series this has been,
with 3 OT games, and all 6 games decided by 1 goal. How huge has Washington rookie third string
goalie Braden Holtby been? Amazing. Facing the defending Stanley Cup champs, and
his opposite number being the Conn Smythe winner from last year’s playoffs, he
has matched him save for save, including picking up critical road wins in Games
2&5. How will he fair on Wednesday,
in a do or die, winner take all, Game 7 on the road? That is the biggest question. From experience alone, and from an offensive
firepower perspective, you have to like Boston to win this game. But, at the same time, it’s very likely to be
a close, low scoring game – and one bounce here or there could be the game winner. I am really looking forward to this game, as
any Game 7 in the NHL is the best sporting event we can watch as a fan.
Panthers vs. Devils: Florida has played both their
goalies in this series, and after five games I feel Theodore is the right
answer in net for the final two games (if necessary). Theodore has yielded 5 goals in three games,
while Clemmensen has allowed more goals (7) in fewer games (2). The Panthers must stick with the more
experienced Theodore in my opinion moving forward, at least in this series,
barring a disaster of a Game Six. For
the Devils, goaltending is also the biggest factor so far – Brodeur has not
played consistently well, which has kind of been his MO over the last five or
so seasons in the playoffs – as I outlined in the preview article. Aside from his Game 4 shutout, he has allowed
13 goals in the other four games, over 3 goals per game – if that number does
not drop dramatically to around 2 over the last two games, Florida will win
this series. And judging on his recent
playoff performances, it’s hard to see him making that kind of jump. With Florida currently up 3-2 I think they
will go on and win this series.
Coyotes vs. Blackhawks: it has been widely discussed
how competitive this series has been, with the first give games going to
OT. Similar to the BOS/WAS series, all
games thus far have obviously been decided by one goal, with Phoenix winning
three of the five. Phoenix has consistently
put themselves in better position in these games often leading late, but they
have allowed Chicago to score a number of late third period goals to force OT,
and at times pull out the win. What is
odd about that is Chicago has dominated this series statistically, outshooting
the Coyotes by 63 shots thru 5 games!
Typically that kind of number is a death blow to an opponent, and their
chances at pulling out 4 wins in 7 games – but thus far, oddly enough, as
mentioned above, Phoenix has consistently put themselves in better position
late. Heading into this series I pointed
out I felt Phoenix goalie Mike Smith, and the Coyote defense would be the keys
to winning this series – that has played out, as Mike Smith has played
unbelievable, outplaying his fellow net-minder Corey Crawford easily,
especially considering the amount of shots faced. The biggest question is can he keep that
up? This series is very similar to
NY/OTT in a lot of ways, with Chicago, like New York, seemingly carrying most
of the play, yet Phoenix, like Ottawa, is often better positioned to win the
game. It’s hard to go against a goalie
as hot as Mike Smith, so I feel Phoenix will win one of the last two and seal
up their first playoff series win in their history.
Few thoughts on
team’s that have already advanced:
#4 Philadelphia
Flyers: in the end it took six games, which made this series look more
competitive than it really was, but the Flyers took control of this series
early and never relinquished hold. I
still have a lot of concerns about the goaltending for the Flyers, which is
their question mark annually. And feel
when they face a team next round that is stronger defensively, more balanced,
and has better goaltending, it will not work out as well as it did in the
opening round for them. But there is
certainly something to be said about how impressive, and explosive they looked
vs. Pitt. A potentially bad matchup in
the next round would be vs. the NY Rangers, whom they lost all 6 meetings to
during the regular season, and the Blue Shirts pose a lot of the threats I mentioned
that Philadelphia has to try and avoid – namely, strong blue line and great
goaltending. A potentially good matchup
would be Florida or New Jersey, as neither of those teams has great
goaltending, or the explosive front lines to go toe to toe with the Flyers.
# 8 Los Angeles
Kings: LA surprisingly took early control of their series vs. President Cup
champ Vancouver, and never allowed the Canucks to get back in the series, or to
shift the game play towards a more up-tempo, open ice style they prefer. LA picked up their first playoff series win
in some 10 years, and they will be a force moving forward with a strong back
line, and good goaltending. LA will
match up with STL next round for certain, as the Blues will be the highest
remaining seed in the West, while LA is the lowest. The season series was won by LA 3-1, in
rather dominating fashion outscoring the Blues 9-3 in those games. I definitely expect these games will be tight
checking, grind-it-out type affairs – looking back on the last two games these
teams played, the only times they met in calendar year 2012, St. Louis won 1-0
on Feb 3 on their home ice, while LA won 1-0 on Mar 22 on their home ice. Expect more of the same, in what should be a
very exciting series – one that will certainly advance a team we are not used
to seeing to the Western Conference Finals – which is what makes hockey such a
great sport – take notes Major League Baseball.
#2 St. Louis Blues:
in what should not have been that big a surprise after dominating San Jose
during the regular season, STL easily dispatched the Sharks 4-1 in a series
that wasn’t all that close. After San
Jose won the opener of the series 3-2 in OT, the Blues ran off four straight
wins, outscoring SJ 12-5 during that span.
St. Louis goaltending was stellar, holding San Jose to 2 goals or less
in four of the five games. In addition,
the Blues special teams generated a huge edge as we expected going in, as their
power play unit scored 6 goals, while their PK unit killed off 15 of 17 Shark
PP’s. Make no mistake about it, the
Blues PP unit is absolutely critical to their ongoing potential success in the
playoffs, as they are just not explosive enough 5 on 5 to win 8 more games in
the Western Conference without continued success with that unit. I am really looking forward to the next round
matchup with LA, in what should be one of the better series we have in the
Conference Semifinals.
#4 Nashville
Predators: in surprising fashion, NAS took care of DET in 5 games – it
wasn’t so much that Nashville won the series, it was the ease at which they
accomplished the task, not allowing the potent Red Wing offense to score more
than 2 goals in any game besides their Game Two 3-2 win. The Western Conference is really shaping up
to be a defensive battle, with the three teams that have advanced known for
their defensive prowess – and when examining all 5 teams that could potentially
reach the WC SF round, Nashville just might be the best all around club –
especially considering experience, as outside a Chicago win they would also
have that going for them after last season’s 2nd round run. There is a lot of like about Nashville, as I
fell in love with this team last year during the playoffs, and have really
enjoyed watching them come together this year and build off that success,
instead of going the other way in a tough Western Conference. I feel either team that advances from the
PHO/CHI series will be a good matchup for Nashville, but think they would even
admit behind closed doors Phoenix would be their preferred opponent. There is absolutely no reason to not call the
Predators the favorite in the WC right now in my opinion, and the remainder of
the playoffs with the three teams that we know have advanced should be a ton of
fun out West.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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