WOW. Is there a more appropriate word to describe the first six days of the 2012 NHL playoffs? I am sure there is, but my limited vocabulary isn’t up to the task of defining that. My time is better spent here offering my thoughts on how these days and games have gone vs. using the thesaurus on Microsoft Word to locate a better word, that’s for sure. We have seen a little of everything thus far, but at the top of the list is two items: fights and OT. Let’s start with OT, and the pure level of competition we have seen thus far. I cannot recall any season of NHL playoffs starting off so competitive, keeping in mind as I mentioned in my last NHL blog posting I look forward and thoroughly enjoy this sports playoffs each season. Let’s take a quick look at each series:
Eastern Conference
#1 NY Rangers vs. #8 Ottawa Senators: [road/underdog value, lean towards over]. On those two thoughts we stand PLUS, with the sides play of road/underdog @ +$145 on a 2-1 record, and the over “lean” stands at 1-1-1 for even units. I have given out no plays in this series to clients so far. What have we seen through three games? Early in Game One Ottawa played well, forcing the Rangers into a more wide open, free flowing style of hockey – but towards the middle of the 2nd period the game switched over towards the Rangers style, of dumping, chasing, churning, and the Senators were overmatched coming out a 4-2 loser. In Game Two Ottawa manned up, it got a little nasty because they knew they would have to play a lot tougher if they had a chance at winning this series, and they were somewhat successful using that strategy by pulling out a 3-2 win. However, when you examine those goals, two of the three could be labeled somewhat fluky. Last night we saw a tight affair in Game Three, with Henrik Lundqvist the clear difference maker posting a shutout including a handful of phenomenal saves, boosting the Rangers to the 1-0 win. Although Ottawa is doing a decent job matching the intensity and style of play the Rangers are dictating, that is not the best formula for their potential success. They need to find a better, healthier balance of disciplined toughness, while keeping the skating lanes open for their skill players to do what they do best. The 3 game suspension of winger Carl Hagelin made a definite impact last night as rookie Chris Kreider just did not play well in his first NHL game – which does not project anything as far as how good a player he will become, he just is clearly not ready for this kind of hockey yet (cannot be blamed for that either), and I would be surprised if we did not see a lineup change for Game Four. I continue to feel strongly the Rangers will win this series, and still believe it could happen in 5 as originally predicted.
#2 Boston Bruins vs. #7 Washington Capitals: [no leans on sides or totals]. I have given out no plays in this series to clients so far. What a grind it out affair the first two games of this series were, with a total of 4 goals scored. Last night things opened up some, with Boston pulling out a nice 4-3 road win on Chara’s late tally. This series has been tightly contested, lots of checking, fore checking, and limited open ice for the skill players on both teams, in particular Alex Ovechkin. AO has been targeted each time he touches the puck, as the Bruins look to grind him down as the series progresses, thus limiting his impact in potentially key Games 6&7. Both goaltenders have performed very well, as the Capitals appear to have potentially found a stud young net-minder with 22 year old Braden Holtby matching saves with 2011 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Tim Thomas. Even though the series sits at 2-1 Boston I get the feeling that Game One loss for Washington will turn out to be critical as they simply cannot get any better goaltending out of a rookie, and still find themselves in a hole through three games. Heading into the series I had Boston in 6, and still feel that will happen. The only real chance Washington has to push this series to 7 and possibly come out victorious is to generate much more offense, with Ovechkin needing to become the clear cut best player on the ice for either side. I just do not see that happening consistently enough.
#3 Florida Panthers vs. #6 NJ Devils: [no side plays/leans, over]. Heading into this series I targeted the over as potential plays because both goaltenders were struggling – thus far through two games we had a push in Game One, and an over Sunday night, moving this play to +100. I have given out one play to clients on this series so far, a Game Two winner on the Panthers. This series is kind of the “forgotten series” of the first round, no question about it. Each year in both NHL and NBA playoffs we have a series that just doesn’t generate the buzz and attention of their peers, and for 2012 this series fits that bill. Both games for the most part have played out the same way, just flip-flopping teams. In Game One NJ jumped out to a 3-0 lead, and held on to win 3-2. Sunday night Florida jumped out to a 3-0 lead, and they went on to win 4-2 (how about that EN goal with 1 second remaining for all those who played the total!). When watching the action a little closer its clear the Devils are the better team, as I projected in my initial write-up. Historically Southeast Division teams are not up to par (sans Washington) once the playoffs begin, and it looks as though that is the case once again. I expect NJ to take care of business here sooner than later, as originally I expected 5 games possibly 6, and still feel that will be the case.
#4 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers: [road/underdog value, over]. As far as my projections go for this series, the underdog has won all 3 games for a HUGE PROFIT OF +$460, while the over has also gone 3-0 netting a cool +$300. Thru three games my predictions have gone a ROBUST 6-0 in this series, cashing each side and total. I am 0-1 in this series so far in client selections losing Game 3 play on Penguins. But setting aside the gambling aspect for a moment, wow…what is going on with Pittsburgh? I had Pens in 7 heading in, thinking this would be extremely competitive, with the key difference maker being between the pipes. I pointed out how poor Fleury has performed recently in the playoffs, and didn’t think Bryzgalov had what it takes to get the job done for the Flyers in this kind of series. To a certain degree both of those points have been correct, but I would have never thought the Flyers would be the more explosive team, seemingly scoring at will each and every time they needed a response to Penguin goal. Call me crazy, but I do not think this series is over quite yet – why you may ask? Well, we all know, goaltending is so critical to playoff success. So with such poor goalies in net for both teams, offense is still going to win this series – and there are very few offenses as potent as Pitt’s can be when it is humming on all cylinders. I expect the Pens to get their act together in Game Four, realize the style of hockey they are attempting to play over the last three games is out of their comfort zone, and start re-focusing on what they do best. It is clearly a huge hill to climb, but I am currently projecting they will win the next two, setting up a potentially massive, critical Game 6 taking place in Philly on Sunday.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings: [no side plays, under]. The under was my target in this series prior to it commencing, and thus far it is 1-2 for -$160 (could easily be 1-1-1 as an EN goal in Game One moved that game from a push to a loss) as the juice on the under has been higher because of the action on that end, and Vegas is not going to move a total to 4.5. I am 0-2 in this series losing Games 2&3 on Canucks. Looking back on my breakdown of this series it was obvious LA had played extremely well vs. Vancouver over the last two years plus – and frankly that same story has continued as the Canucks had averaged only scoring 1.9 goals per game vs. LA over the last two years, and in this series they are averaging 1.3 goals scored – you are not going to beat many teams in the NHL scoring like that. However, to a certain extent, it’s hard to get a grasp on just why Vancouver has struggled so much in this series, especially with two of three at home so far. Yes, the loss of a Sedin twin hurts, but there is too much talent on this team to be struggling to the extent they are offensively vs. the Kings. LA has a talented team as pointed out multiple times, but for some reason it didn’t seem to click until March – they were in fact one of the hottest teams in the league since then. Looking forward in this series it doesn’t appear the Canucks have the juice in them to dig out of this hole, and this early round exit could really make that seat extra hot for Canucks head man Vignault.
#2 St. Louis Blues vs. #7 San Jose Sharks: [no side plays, under]. The under is 1-1-1 so far, even money. I am 1-0 in client plays so far cashing Game 2 under. Check out this one sentence I had in my preview: “Discipline, penalties, and special teams units will be absolutely critical in this series.” How true has that been so far? St. Louis is 5-13 on the PP, while only allowing 2 PP goals to SJ. That is on the back of STL going 5-18 on the PP in the regular season meetings between the teams – the Blues have now gone 10-31 on the PP vs. the Sharks PK, 10 power play goals in 7 games! San Jose had the 2nd worst PK unit based on % in the NHL on the season, and that has continued into the playoffs, blatantly costing them Game 3, which put them in a 2-1 hole after winning Game 1. If San Jose can figure out the PK unit they could have a shot at going on to win this series. But after seeing seven games between the teams this season where the Blues have had a clear advantage on special teams, it flat out appears unlikely they will. I also believe targeting under plays moving forward will net positive units over the remainder of this series as SJ will do their best at tightening up either their PK unit, or taking penalties – and SJ has struggled to score on STL this year.
#3 Phoenix Coyotes vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks: [no side plays, lean over]. Thus far the over is 1-0-1 for a profit of $90. Client plays are 1-1 in this series, losing Game One but winning Game Two, both plays on Chicago. Here was my critical sentence about this series from my preview: “His play (PHO G Mike Smith), and the Coyote defense, will be the determining factor here.” Looking back on that thought through only two games neither has played well for Phoenix, as they have allowed a massive 95 shots (CHI has outshot PHO 95-67) and Smith has allowed 6 goals, including in both games allowing the Blackhawks to tie the game in the final minute – PHO went on to win Game One in OT, but lost Game Two in OT. This series so far has been very exciting, while also flying under the radar somewhat because of the late starts in the desert. Judging on the way the first two games have played out, that we are now shifting to the Windy City for Games 3&4, and lastly the fact Phoenix has not won a series yet in their existence, I see no reason to change my original prediction of the Blackhawks winning this series in 6 – if anything I think it could go only 5.
#4 Nashville Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings: [no side plays, under]. Through three games the under is 0-0-3, as all 3 games have pushed on the 5 goal number set by Vegas. In addition, all three games have been 3-2 final scores, with Nashville winning two of the three to take their second lead in the series. I have gone 2-0 in client plays this series, with side winner in each of the first two games. In an odd statistical phenomenon, in Detroit’s win they had only 17 shots; in their two losses they had 37 & 43 shots – go figure. In my preview I mentioned shots could be key in this series as Detroit seems to generate more, which obviously leads to more chances at scoring – which could be huge for the skill players the Wings possess. Through three games Detroit is +23 in shots, and +2 in PP goals scored. If both of those stats stay this way as the series plays out I still like Detroit to win and advance – my original selection was Detroit in 7, and still feel that will be the case although Nashville has certainly showed they are a legit contender.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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