Another NHL regular season has gone by – one in which we
once again profited massively for our clients finishing ranked #2 at our
monitor – and we now head into the two plus month voyage known as the Stanley
Cup Playoffs. Most of you are aware by
now, but in case you aren’t – the hockey playoffs contain some of the most
exciting, fantastic, edge-of-your-seat action of any of the major sports in
America. Yes, the regular season,
similar to the NBA, can be a thud of sorts, stretching from October through
April – but once mid April does arrive, the intensity is ratcheted up a notch,
stars are born, and excitement fills the air.
I have a great analysis on how to handicap and bet money
lines, and also how to lay wagers on series odd’s bets with proper hedging to
lock in profits as a series progresses.
I will do my best to post that analysis by this weekend.
Today I will take a look at each first round series,
breaking down some key aspects, and offering projections on who will win each
series and the total lines.
Eastern Conference
#1 NY Rangers vs.
#8 Ottawa Senators: in the interest of full disclosure, yes, I am a
Rangers fan – but I am a professional as well, and can break their games and
series down from a neutral fan’s perspective – after all, many people pay me to
do that. Right off the bat I feel the
Rangers got a few breaks towards the end of the regular season, holding off
Pittsburgh for the top seed in the East, and simultaneously avoiding a
potential matchup with either Washington or Buffalo in the opening round. I feel Buffalo was more dangerous than Ottawa
simply because of Ryan Miller – he flat out did not have a solid year, which is
why Buffalo wound up missing the playoffs – but if they did make it he is still
one of the best net-minders in the game, and he would have played like he had
something to prove not only because of the average regular season he produced,
but because he would have been going head to head vs. Henrik Lundqvist, whom
many feel is the best goalie in the game.
I also feel Washington would have been a tougher matchup for the Blue
Shirts because of Alexander Ovechkin, who can take over a game and series
quickly, and they also eliminated the Rangers in two of the last three
seasons. But alas, the way it played
out, all the way down to the last game of the regular season, New York will
face Ottawa – a team they did lose three of four to this regular season. Looking back on those games, Ottawa outscored
New York 14-8. King Henrik started 3 of
the 4 matchups, as did Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson - the lone game the back-up
goalies started Ottawa prevailed 4-1, which was the last matchup between the
teams on March 8 in Ottawa. The Rangers
limp into the playoffs losing 3 of their last 4, including being outscored 9-3
in their last two games, losses to Pittsburgh and Washington. Ottawa also comes in losing 3 of their last
4, which caused them to drop from the 7 seed a week ago to the 8th
and final spot. This is the first series
the Rangers have had home-ice since 1996, a whopping 16 years ago! Neither team has enjoyed any recent playoff
success as the Rangers have not advanced to the Conference SF round since 2008,
while Ottawa last won a playoff series in 2007.
Ottawa has only won 2 playoff games since 2007, while the Rangers have
won 8 during the same time period. So
playoff experience, either way, doesn’t seem to be impactful one way or
another. As far as total trends go, the
o/u was 1-2-1, with the push involving an empty netter; however, with the totals
in playoffs typically set at 5 vs. the usual regular season number of 5.5, that
would have made the regular season series at 1-1-2, so not much trending
there. Also not many trends on the total
going back over their last ten games in the series. However, the Rangers have only gone under 5
in 2 of their last 10 – so you may find some value on over’s, especially
considering many will play the under with the Rangers involved. We have seen definite trending on the sides
of this matchup as both the underdog and road team has won 9 of the last
10. What does it all mean? I really like the Rangers in this series, and
although some experts have touted the Senators as decent challengers to the
Broadway Blue Shirts, I just do not see it and think NY got a break not facing
Buffalo or Washington. Down the line the
biggest potential matchup issue for the Rangers will be a team that has a great
goalie as the Rangers can already struggle scoring at times, which the Senators
do not possess. With the massive edge
between the pipes, and a hungry Rangers team that is seeking success in June,
the focused Rangers realize that starts with winning early in April, and thus will
handle Ottawa in 5 – realizing the earlier they can put this series behind them
the better as they are not the deepest team around, and any additional rest they
can achieve will help out come May.
#2 Boston Bruins
vs. #7 Washington Capitals: this series has the potential to be exciting
as Washington has taken down Boston in 3 of the 4 meetings this year, all of
which took place January 24th or later, including two matchups in
the last month both of which were Washington wins. The key to this series could be goaltending,
with both teams currently suffering injuries to at least one of their
net-minders. Let’s start with the
Capitals, who have the biggest injury issue related to goaltending as any team
in the NHL playoffs. Veteran starter
Tomas Vokoun is out with a groin injury and his status remains unknown for the
playoffs right now. Backup Michal Neuvirth,
who was last year’s playoff goalie for Washington, is also dealing with an
injury and will be re-evaluated as the week progresses. What does that leave Washington with? Answer is Braden Holtby, a 22 year old rookie
with no playoff experience. What Holtby lacks
in playoff experience he makes up for somewhat with a stellar early career
record of 14-4-3, and is looked at as the goalie of the future for the
Caps. Perhaps this series is the start
of a long career in net for Holtby with the Capitals, and perhaps he can
flourish in this role over the long haul – but it appears overcoming the
Bruins, who have a lot of firepower and experience, may be a lot to ask at this
stage of his career. The Bruins are not
without goaltending issues of their own as Tukka Rask, their clear cut goalie
of the future, has not played since March 3rd – he is expected to
resume practice this week and potentially be available towards the end of this
series, or for certain in the next series should Boston win. Tim Thomas has been one of the better stories
of the last few seasons, in particular the playoffs where he led Boston to the
Stanley Cup last year at the ripe age of 37.
Although he has not been as consistent as Boston would have liked this
year, he proved last year he can excel in May & June, and figures to be a
solid option for the defending Cup champions this spring. With the goaltending edge clearly in favor of
Boston, let’s examine some of the other key areas of this series, starting with
taking a closer look at the four regular season meetings. Washington outscored Boston 13-12, picking up
a pair of 1 goal wins in the team’s last two matchups. Boston outshot the Caps in 3 of the 4 games –
with the losing team having the shots edge in all four games. Power play was not an impact at all in any of
the four games, either from attempts or goals scored perspectives – in aggregate,
the Capitals were 1-6, while Boston was 1-8.
Lastly, Washington does come into the playoffs on a roll of sorts – they
had to in order to qualify – as they have won 4 of their last 5 including a
shoot-out win over Boston, while the Bruins also come in winning 4 of 5, 7 of 9
& 9 of 12. The Bruins have won their
opening round series in each of the last 3 seasons, winning it all last year
while Washington has won their opener 2 of the last 3 years, both times
defeating the Rangers. On the
handicapping angles, the home/away & underdog/favorite splits are 5-5 over
the last ten meetings. Total wise, only
4 of the last 10 meetings have gone over 5 goals, with another game winding up
at 5 exactly. Not much there, but one
thing to keep an eye on is how comfortable the Washington rookie goalie looks –
if he starts looking a little shaky, the over may be solid plays [targeting the
games in Boston primarily] especially considering Washington has an explosive
offense, and Thomas hasn’t been quite as good this year as he creeps up there
age wise. What does it all mean? Like Ottawa above, Washington has taken the
season series from Boston this year – but I do not think that will matter much
when the puck is dropped come Thursday.
Boston has a big edge in goal, especially considering a rookie will
likely be playing for Washington, and they come into the playoffs peaking of
sorts looking to advance deep and try to become the first team since the
’97-’98 Red Wings to win back to back Cups.
I am not sure that will happen this year, but I do think Boston will
advance to the SF round in 6 games here.
#3 Florida
Panthers vs. #6 NJ Devils: in what seems like an annual rite of passage
in the Eastern Conference, any Southeast Division team not named the Washington
Capitals appears to be an underdog in the QF round – and that holds true once
again in 2012 as the Devils are the favorite in this series which commences on
Friday. Last year it was the Lightning,
underdogs vs. Pittsburgh but did come out victorious in 7 games; in 2010 no
team other than Washington made the playoffs; in 2009 the Hurricanes were
underdogs vs. New Jersey, but won that series in 7 games; 2008 once again only
Washington made the playoffs; 2007 both Atlanta (#3 seed) and Tampa Bay (#7
seed) made the playoffs only to win a combined 2 games between them in dropping
both series. You get the point – which
is over the last 5 years we only had four instances of Southeast Division teams
reaching the playoffs not named the Capitals, all four were underdogs, and only
two won and both did so in 7 games. Not
only that, of the 16 teams that have advanced to the playoffs in both
conferences, the only two teams with a negative goal differential are both SE
division qualifiers, Florida -24 and Washington -8. The Devils were one of the hottest clubs in
hockey over the last two thirds of the season, ironically led by HC Pete
DeBoer, who was an assistant with the Panthers for the previous 3 seasons. The Devils are still led by G Martin Brodeur,
who remains one of the better goalies in the game despite father time rapidly
ticking. Although his save percentage
has dropped for 6 consecutive seasons, he is still playing at a relatively high
level, and would love nothing more than to make one last run to his 4th
Stanley Cup title, which would be his first in ten seasons. Recently his playoff splits have not been
very good, posting a 3+ GAA in two of his last three playoff appearances, as NJ
has not won a playoff series with him in net since 2007, and they have not
advanced to the Conference Finals since their last Cup win in 2003. The 2012 Panthers make their first playoff
appearance in 12 years and were clearly one of the surprise teams this year in
hockey winning the SE division. But when
taking a look at their season results you may be wary of how they accomplished
this – they were 17-5-1 in one goal games – which is good in that it shows the
team plays well in tight games, but could also be looked at as poor as that
shows there was little room between the team winning the division which they
did, and potentially missing out on the playoffs if a few of those bounces
didn’t go their way. What is critical in
this matchup is the fact New Jersey was 24-7-6 themselves in one goal games,
and have consistently shown over the years they perform well in tight games –
most of which is driven by past solid goaltending by Marty Brodeur. Florida has a lot of questions at goaltender,
with Jose Theodore likely to get the nod even though he has struggled recently
in the playoffs. Both teams are pretty
even believe it or not as far as playoff experience goes, as neither team has
made any significant noise in quite some time.
Statistically, in the team’s 4 games this year, there was only 1
combined power play goal, but NJ did have the edge shots wise in 3 of the 4
games and in aggregate. With the recent
playoff struggles of both goalies, the over appears to be a decent angle to pursue
in these games. As far as the series
goes, I just have a hard time seeing Florida escaping with a win, based on
goaltending and the fact SE division teams almost always struggle in the
playoffs. New Jersey and Brodeur will be
extra hungry since they have not reached even the second round since 2007, and
that will lead the Devils to a series win in 5 possibly 6 games.
#4 Pittsburgh
Penguins vs. #5 Philadelphia Flyers: without a doubt this is the best
opening round series the Eastern Conference has to offer, and quite possibly
the best in the NHL although there are a few out West that should also be
highly entertaining. The Keystone state
rivalry, old Patrick Division rivals, current Atlantic Division rivals, lots of
bad blood (see the 2nd to last regular season meeting between these
two), two good hockey teams, and a pair of rabid fan bases load this one up to
potentially be one of the most memorable QF matchups of the last decade. Let’s start by looking at the playoff success
each franchise has enjoyed of late: Philadelphia has advanced to the EC SF
round 3 of the last 4 years (only missing in 2009), along with one Stanley Cup
Final appearance in 2010, and one EC Final appearance vs. Pittsburgh in
2008. The Penguins have also advanced to
the EC SF round in 3 of the last 4 years (only missing last year), including
two Stanley Cup Final appearances, along with one championship in 2009. As you can see just from that data these are
two Eastern Conference heavyweights as other than Boston last year these two
clubs have represented the EC in the SC Finals each year since 2008. Not only that, both teams put up 103 plus
points, and the total of 211 points between the clubs is a record for total
points between teams meeting in the first round of the playoffs. Four of the five Atlantic Division teams put
up 102 plus points, which by itself is amazing – those poor Islanders! That division continues to be the best in
hockey, which seems to be the case each season.
This season the teams met 6 times, with Philadelphia winning 4 of the 6,
road/home split was 3-3, and O/U split was 3-2-1. The winning team scored at least 3 goals in
every game, and averaged 4.33 goals scored over the six games. This is the only series in the EC where PP
units had an impact as Philly scored one PP goal in each of the 6 meetings, and
Pitt netted 3. With the high powered
Pens really coming into their own over the last third of the season, the
question mark Philly has between the pipes, and the fact that the winning team
averaged scoring over 4 goals a game during their regular season matchups, the
Flyers figure to need their PP unit continuing to produce in this series to
keep pace with the Pens. On the season,
Philly ranked #1 in the NHL with 66 PP goals, while Pitt was tied for 2nd
at 57. What could be key here as far as
the PP units go is penalty killing, where there was a big gap between the two
teams production – PHI was ranked 3rd worst in the NHL allowing 58
PP goals on the year, while PIT was 2nd best in the NHL allowing a paltry
33 AND they scored 11 SH goals, tied for 3rd best in the NHL! I think a lot of those numbers can be traced
back to goaltending, especially for Philadelphia as goaltending in any playoff
series is extremely critical to team success – and a big reason around
Philadelphia why they have not been able to hoist a Stanley Cup since 1975
despite quite often heading into the playoffs as one of the best teams in
hockey. The Flyers made a big splash
this past offseason signing G Ilya Bryzgalov to a high dollar, long term deal
believing he would be the answer they have so long sought at goalie. It has not been smooth all season, and
perhaps it hasn’t worked out as planned, but his numbers were decent posting a
GAA of 2.48 with a save % of .909, and many fans and media pundits alike
believe he did improve his play down the stretch. But I have my doubts based on some of his
comments during the season that when the lights are turned brightest, which
they always are on Broad Street come spring, that he will be able to perform at
a high enough level to push the Flyers into a deep 2012 playoff push. On the other side is Marc-Andre Fluery, who
has really come into his own the last few seasons. This year he picked up his career high in
wins at 42, posted his second straight GAA under 2.40, and posted his second
straight save % over .912. However,
examining his postseason numbers yield a different story, one not as good as
outside his 2008 playoff performance, over his postseason career, his numbers
have been poor allowing 2.52 or more goals on average per game, and a save % at
or below .908 including three of four
below .900. Based on that goalie
analysis, the meetings we have seen so far this season, and the strong PP
performance both teams enjoyed in prior meetings this season, I feel the over
is probably going to be a good play on most nights in this matchup. As far as the series goes, I have a hard time
seeing Philadelphia being able to escape with four wins in seven games between
these teams, even though they got the better of Pitt during the regular season
outscoring them 22-20. These games will
all be hotly contested, physical affairs, and I give the Penguins the edge and
likely win based on goaltending, and home ice.
Pens in 7, but I also think there will be a lot of value on the
underdogs in this series – Philadelphia was tied with Los Angeles for the 3rd
least regulation road losses this season with 13 only trailing both #1 seeds NY
Rangers & Vancouver Canucks who had 12, while the Pens went 22-15-4 themselves. Remember, if you are not betting underdogs in
NHL or MLB action, you will not win money over the course of the season – it
will not happen period.
Western Conference
#1 Vancouver
Canucks vs. #8 Los Angeles Kings: the Canucks sit atop the WC for the
second straight season, along with winning back to back President’s Cups for
the first time in franchise history.
Over the last two seasons they have been the best team in hockey, but
are still seeking their first Stanley Cup after losing in seven games to Boston
last year. This year it is clearly title
or bust for Vancouver, and the journey begins Wednesday night when the Kings
visit rowdy Rogers Arena. Speaking of
the Kings, they backed into the last playoff spot after losing three of four
and five of eight to close their regular season. Things never quite came together for the
talented Kings this year, as interim HC John Stevens was replaced by veteran
bench jockey Darryl Sutter in mid December.
Sutter has never been known for playoff success as 7 of his 10 playoff
appearances have resulted in first round exits, twice he lost in the second
round, and in 2004 he lost in the Stanley Cup final to Tampa Bay as HC of
Calgary. The seat is getting a little
hotter for Canucks HC Alain Vigneault as he has coached the Canucks to 100+
point seasons in 5 of his 6 years behind the bench, but has lost in the 2nd
round in 3 of 4 playoff appearances, the lone outlier being last season’s
finals loss to Boston. The Canucks enter
this series red hot winning 8 of their last 9 games, and look to make quick
work of a Kings team they are more talented than, despite the season series
being split 2-2 between the clubs. An
interesting totals trend between the clubs 8 meetings over the last two years
was none of them resulted in an over.
Five unders, and 3 pushes with all 3 pushes this season on 5 goal
totals, the same total we will see in this series. Based on that, the under appears to be a
strong play between these two clubs. What
is also of note, Vancouver and their high powered offense that averaged 3.2
goals per game on the season has not scored more than 3 goals against LA in any
of the 8 meetings over the last two seasons.
In fact, they have only averaged 1.9 goals scored in those matchups,
almost 1.5 goals less per game than they average vs. the rest of the NHL. Could that perhaps be a sign this series will
be tougher than most typical 1 vs. 8 matchups?
A quick glance at the “experts predictions” on ESPN show 8 of the 12
selecting Vancouver to win the series, but 6 of the 8 believe it will go at
least 7, and 7 of the 12 believe this series will go 7 games regardless of which
team they selected to win. For
comparative purposes 11 of the 12 selected the #1 Eastern Conference seed NY
Rangers to handle Ottawa, and only 3 of the 12 believe it will go 7 games (the
one analyst who picked the Sens to win did so in 7 games). This could be a tough matchup for the Canucks
as judging on past action between the clubs LA forces Vancouver to play more of
their style of hockey. If the ‘Nucks are
able to get the game more free-flowing and fast paced, LA will certainly be in
trouble – which I feel will be the case more times than not especially at
Rogers Arena. The Canucks have too much
firepower for the Kings over the course of the series, and because of that I do
not see it going 7 games, possibly 6, probably 5 as LA just has never found
their mojo this season for whatever reason.
#2 St. Louis Blues
vs. #7 San Jose Sharks: this year’s biggest surprise squad has to be
the Blues, who have only qualified for the playoffs once since the ’04-’05
lockout, have not won one playoff game since 2004, and have not won a playoff
series since 2002. Kudos to the Blues
for a great regular season, which was built on one of the best blue lines in
hockey as they yielded an NHL low 165 goals on the year, 14 better than 2nd
place LA, and 22 better than 3rd place NYR in that category. In addition to a strong defense, home ice was
a big advantage for St. Louis this season as they went a remarkable 30-6-5 at
Scottrade Center – that mark was the best in the league since the ’09-’10
Capitals went 30-5-6. Let’s hope for the
Blues sake the playoff do not go as poor as they did for that Capitals team,
who as the #1 seed in the East lost their opening round series to #8 Montreal
in 7 games, in fact losing the deciding game on home ice! What do the Blues get for such a great
regular season? The San Jose Sharks, far
from a bargain. San Jose is coming off
back to back Western Conference Final appearances, and they have won at least
one series in 6 of the past 7 seasons – only opening round loss was as the #1
seed in 2009 to Anaheim. So right off
the bat, we can see there is a HUGE edge as far as playoff experience goes to
the Sharks side. But, there are some
areas St. Louis has a nice edge, and we can start with the four meetings
between the teams this season, that the Blues swept by outscoring the Sharks
11-3! The Sharks were only able to
muster 3 total goals in 4 meetings this year, and what’s more they have only
scored 1 goal over the last 180+ minutes of action between the teams. A key driver of that regular season success
for St. Louis was their power play that went 5-18 in aggregate, and was the
obvious differentiator in at least two of the games – STL won the most recent
meeting 3-1 and scored a pair of PP goals, and STL won a December 10th
matchup 1-0 behind a PP goal. What makes
that point interesting is the fact that on the season San Jose was tied for 2nd
in PP goals with 57, while St. Louis was middle of the pack tied for 16th
with 45 – that definitely makes you wonder can the Blues PP success vs. SJ
continue in this series? As far as PK
goes, SJ was one of the better teams in the league with their unit tying for 7th
best in PP goals allowed, BUT they were 2nd worst in the NHL as far
as PK % is measured checking in at 76.9%.
On the contrary was STL who ranked #7 in PK % @ 85.8. If you have not noticed by those stats there
was a big gap as far as times shorthanded goes, as the Blues were SH 57 more
times than the Sharks were. Discipline,
penalties, and special teams units will be absolutely critical in this
series. What’s more as far as favoring
SJ goes is the way the two teams closed out their seasons – STL did not play
well, losing 4 of their last 5 and 8 of their last 12; SJ won their last 4 and
7 of their last 9. Talent wise the
Sharks are one of the better teams in the league, but this year they went
through an extended funk of sorts from February to mid March where they lost 10
of 14 games, which obviously at the end of the day really impacted their
seeding. I want to feel good about the
Blues, I want to see them have success this playoff season – I really enjoy
their brand of hockey, their home ice at the Scotttrade Center is one of the
best in the NHL when it really rocks – it’s just hard for me to get excited
about this matchup for them. Along with
PIT/PHI & NAS/DET this will be one of the better first round series to
watch, with lots of tight checking, physical play, and fun buildings. I see this one going the distance, with under
plays probably working out well over the course of the series, and think at the
end of the day San Jose will find a way to win this series as they are perhaps
peaking as we head into April, whereas
St. Louis may have peaked too early in the season. Just like the 2010 Capitals, the Blues will
lose Game 7 on their home ice after posting the best home record in the NHL
this year.
#3 Phoenix Coyotes
vs. #6 Chicago Blackhawks: like the Eastern Conference 3 vs. 6 matchup,
the 6 seed is on paper the clear favorite as Chicago had more points than
Phoenix during the regular season (101 vs. 97), but since Phoenix won their
first ever Pacific division crown they earned the #3 seed. What is interesting however is Phoenix beat
Chicago in 3 of the 4 regular season games this year, outscoring Chicago
13-8. The winning team in those games
scored 3, 4, 4, 5 goals, so a higher scoring affair is quite possible in this
series although 24 of the last 35 meetings have gone under – to a certain
extent those numbers are useless, but using them only for the most recent
matchups over last 2-3 years max can be somewhat helpful. Both teams enter the series very hot, with
CHI going 6-1-3 in their last ten, while PHO posted a 7-1-2 mark. The Coyotes closed the regular season winning
5 straight, using dominating defense during that stretch to seal up the Pacific
Division title only allowing 2 goals combined in those games. However, prior to that run, the ‘Yotes lost
10 of 14, allowing a whopping 46 goals (3.2/game) in those games. Which team will show up in this series is a
big question mark for Phoenix, and their chances of knocking off the more
talented and experienced Blackhawks.
Chicago has dealt with a ton of injuries this year, but was able to
still secure their third 100+ point season in the last 4 years, and their 4th
straight playoff appearance. In those 4
appearances Chicago has only lost in the first round once, last season in 7
games as the #8 seed to the WC champion Canucks – in other words, they will be
extra hungry and focused. Two seasons
ago Chicago won the Cup in six games over Philadelphia, and much of that team
is still intact so another run towards a title is a real possibility. But, to some extent, Chicago has vastly
underachieved last year and this regular season, only being able to secure the
#8 seed last year before suffering a first round exit; and only able to secure
the #6 seed this year, granted the Central Division was much deeper and
stronger in ’11-’12. And as previously
mentioned, some of those struggles (including a stretch where they lost 9
straight games in late January early February) can be correlated to their
injuries – and that is still something we must keep an eye on as a pair of
Centers are banged up in Toews & Bolland, along with LW Brunette and D
Montador. The first three are expected
to play on Thursday, with Montador expected to be re-evaluated early next
week. Last offseason Phoenix upgraded
their goaltending in their opinion by signing Mike Smith, who in turn had a
career year, posting a 2.21 GAA along with a .930 save percentage. His play, and the Coyote defense, will be the
determining factor here. Chicago will
look to exploit that goaltending and defense as they check in with the 2nd
most goals scored in the Western Conference, only 1 goal behind Vancouver on
the season. I have a hard time getting a
solid feel for this series as on one hand Chicago is clearly the more talented
team, but on the other hand Chicago never really found its groove this
year. It seems obvious Chicago is the
pick here, especially considering Phoenix is 0-7 all time in playoff series,
including losing to Central Division bully Detroit in each of the last two
years. But is it too obvious? I say no, Chicago is finally getting back to
full health, will be hungry, and they played in either the best or the second
best division in hockey this year depending on who you talk to. I will go with Chicago in 6, with some leans
towards overs.
#4 Nashville
Predators vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings: this behemoth of a series is the
last of the trio I feel will be the best of the first round (along with PIT/PHI
& STL/SJ), as these Central Division rivals lace ‘em up and face off
starting tonight in Nashville. We all
know about the Red Wings, who have consistently been amongst the best teams in
the sport over the last 25 years, including winning the Cup four times, but
have they slipped some this year finishing in 3rd place in the newly
robust Central? Quick fact, this was the
first year since 1991 that Detroit did not finish 1st or 2nd
in their division! How about the new
juggernaut known as the Nashville Predators?
We got a little taste of what this team could become in last year’s
playoffs, as they defeated the Ducks in the first round and gave the Canucks
all they could handle in a 6 game loss in the 2nd round. They proved last season’s success was not a
fluke, posting 104 points (good for 5th in the NHL), second most in
franchise history only behind the ’06-’07 Preds that posted 110 points. But what has not followed prior regular
season success was playoff success – before last season’s win over Anaheim
Nashville had not won a playoff series in their history, never even forcing a
game 7 in five prior series. Can this
year be different, more like last year than years past? It could be, but it will be a tough hill to
climb. During the regular season the
teams split 6 meetings, with each team winning once on the other team’s ice,
and Nashville winning the last two meetings in March. Four of the six meetings went under the
total, one pushed – but what is interesting is the winning team scored 4 goals
four times, 3 & 2 goals once – relatively high scoring. What we can take away from that is some of
the games were not close, and that is what we find looking closer as 3 of the 6
were 4-1 wins. The under has been strong
between these clubs as its 3-0-1 last four meetings, and 6-2-1 last 9 in
Nashville. Add that point into the fact
when division rivals face off in the playoffs there is so much bad blood and
intensity the games are typically lower scoring affairs, and the under seems
like a strong play in this series. Nashville
comes into the playoffs playing better hockey than Detroit as they are 6-2 in
their last 8, while Detroit is only 2-4 in their last 6 and 5-12 over their
last 17. Yikes. Yes, injuries have played a big part in that,
but that cannot be looked at as favorable for the Red Wings. When looking at record splits the one thing
that stands out is Detroit being under .500 on the road (they are only WC team
under .500 on road, and only Washington joins them in that category out of the
16 playoff teams), which could be a big factor especially considering Nashville
has the home ice, and that home ice edge is one of the best in the NHL. Another point that really stands out is of
the 12 experts on ESPN that are projecting winners of each playoff series, not
one analyst is picking Detroit to win this series – really? Hey, I see the numbers, I broke it all down,
and although Nashville has some clear cut edges, nobody thinks big ole mighty
Detroit has a shot? Wow. Don’t think for a second that won’t be
motivation for the Wings. I see a lot of
low scoring hockey games in this series, very tightly contested, tempers high
with a lot of short fuses. As is often
the case in the playoffs, especially a series between two teams this close in
talent, and being divisional rivals, goaltending is huge. Red Wings net minder Jimmy Howard has the
experience and GAA on his side, while Predators goalie Rinne is one of the
better young goalies in the NHL, and had a higher save % on the season vs.
Howard. Based on that we can determine
Nashville gives up more shots than Detroit on the season to about the tune of
30-26 when these two goalies are in net.
More opportunities for the skill players of Detroit to find the back of
the net is how I see that point. Based
on all of that, I am going to roll the dice some and go with the Red Wings to
win this series, as they have not lost a first round series since 2006. I think they are upset about coming in 3rd
place during the regular season in the division they have owned over the last
25 years, and the fact many are picking Nashville to beat them. I will go with Detroit in 7, winning the deciding
game on Nashville’s home ice.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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