Wednesday, May 9, 2012

2012 NFL Schedule Analysis

We have known the opponents for quite some time, but recently, NFL schedule maker Howard Katz put the finishing touches on the 2012 season by setting up each matchup across the 17 weeks of the regular season.  Talk about a tough job!  Obviously he cannot make every team happy, as he does have a tough gig – but let’s take a closer look first at SOS measured by my final power ratings for the 2011 regular season; then taking a look at SOS using initial 2012 figures including both my current power rankings for each team which is based on statistical performance, along with the second piece of my ratings that plays out the entire season based on the aforementioned power ratings which gives me another rating – blended those two make up each team’s power rating. 
We all have read, or can easily read, SOS #’s for next year’s schedule based on opponent winning % last year – that is all the media discusses.  I myself do not find a ton of value in that exercise, and frankly that is very straightforward and too heavy on last year’s record – not even true performance statistically which is a better true feel for how a team will play.  The main reason using last year’s records for current season SOS is not a good exercise is each season we can expect at least 8 & usually no more than 12 teams will shift their win total by four or more – hence, not a lot of promise in doing any SOS analysis based on last year’s records.  

2012 Schedule Rank
2012 Schedule Rank

Based on 2011
Based on End of Season
2012 Schedule Rank

Statistical Performance (a)
RANKING
2011 Power Ratings (b)
RANKING
Blended 50/50
RANKING





NY GIANTS
191
1
355
1
2
1

DENVER
225
4
348
2
6
2

WASHINGTON
220
2
344
4
6
2

TAMPA BAY
228
5
346
3
8
4

CLEVELAND
224
3
341
9
12
5

BALTIMORE
231
6
343
7
13
6

PHILADELPHIA
234
7
341
9
16
7

CAROLINA
243
11
343
6
17
8

CINCINNATI
238
8
339
11
19
9

TENNESSEE
256
14
343
5
19
9

ARIZONA
254
13
342
8
21
11

DALLAS
240
9
337
13
22
12

ATLANTA
254
13
334
16
29
13

NEW ORLEANS
243
11
333
18
29
13

OAKLAND
266
18
339
12
30
15

NY JETS
283
21
334
15
36
16

KANSAS CITY
260
16
329
22
38
17

SAN DIEGO
265
17
330
21
38
17

INDIANAPOLIS
286
23
334
16
39
19

SEATTLE
276
19
332
20
39
19

ST LOUIS
288
25
335
14
39
19

PITTSBURGH
259
15
328
25
40
22

CHICAGO
284
22
328
24
46
23

JACKSONVILLE
278
20
325
28
48
24

DETROIT
292
26
329
23
49
25

SAN FRANCISCO
300
31
332
19
50
26

MIAMI
288
25
326
26
51
27

GREEN BAY
300
31
326
26
57
28

MINNESOTA
298
28
321
30
58
29

NEW ENGLAND
295
27
321
31
58
29

BUFFALO
300
31
324
29
60
31

HOUSTON
319
32
317
32
64
32


(a) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on statistical performance rank.  The lower a number is the tougher the schedule played.
(b) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on 2011 final power ratings.  The higher a number is the tougher the schedule played.


Above I outline SOS based on two factors – first column is based on where opponents slotted in my “statistical performance ratings” – as support for footnote (a), a lower raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the best statistical performing team from last year obviously gets a #1 rank; the second column is based on my 2011 end of season power ratings – as support for footnote (b), a higher raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the team with the best power rating would have the highest number.  The third column is an aggregation of the “rank” columns from the first two “rank” columns, and those are then ranked in the far right green column to give an overall blended SOS based on those two measurements. 
Based on this type of analysis, using a pair of 2011 systems to project 2012 SOS, NYG have the strongest schedule – which many would argue makes sense because after all, they are the defending Super Bowl Champions – but we all know it doesn’t work that way, it just so happens with the rotation of inter-conference play the Giants come in at the top.  DEN & WAS are tied for second, while TB & CLE round out the top 5. 
While there is some value at using 2011 figures in an SOS analysis, let’s move forward some and focus on using my initial 2012 ratings for SOS.  Keep in mind however tweaks will still be needed before the season starts, but as of now I have made adjustments to include injuries, FA moves, key draft picks, coaching changes, etc.

SOS Rank based on Initial
SOS Rank based on 2011
2012 Power Ratings
50/50 blend (from above)
Raw Score
RANK
RANK
Variance (a)



NY GIANTS
349
1
1
0
TAMPA BAY
348
2
4
(2)
CLEVELAND
344
3
5
(2)
ARIZONA
344
4
11
(7)
NEW ORLEANS
343
5
13
(8)
BALTIMORE
342
6
6
0
DALLAS
341
7
12
(5)
DENVER
341
8
2
6
PHILADELPHIA
340
9
7
2
WASHINGTON
340
9
2
7
SEATTLE
339
11
19
(8)
CAROLINA
339
12
8
4
ATLANTA
339
12
13
(1)
TENNESSEE
337
14
9
5
ST LOUIS
336
15
19
(4)
CHICAGO
335
16
23
(7)
CINCINNATI
334
17
9
8
SAN FRANCISCO
334
18
26
(8)
DETROIT
333
19
25
(6)
KANSAS CITY
333
20
17
3
MIAMI
332
21
27
(6)
JACKSONVILLE
332
22
24
(2)
PITTSBURGH
332
23
22
1
MINNESOTA
332
24
29
(5)
SAN DIEGO
331
25
17
8
NY JETS
331
26
16
10
OAKLAND
330
27
15
12
GREEN BAY
330
28
28
0
INDIANAPOLIS
328
29
19
10
NEW ENGLAND
328
29
29
0
BUFFALO
325
31
31
0
HOUSTON
318
32
32
0
(a) Represents the difference between SOS using 2012 Initial Power Ratings vs. using blended 2011 Ratings from above (far right column)


What does this all mean?  A LOT!  The numbers in this matrix are sorted based on 2012 rating projected strength.  We can see there was limited movement at the top of the ratings as the NYG remain as the #1 toughest schedule, while TB & CLE stay amongst the top 5.  ARI & NO did take pretty significant jumps, sliding up into the top 5, while DEN & WAS dropped some but remained in the top ten.  One key item that really stands out is towards the bottom where we see HOU as having the easiest schedule, with NE, GB, NYJ, SD & PIT amongst the bottom ten.  All those teams have designs on at least reaching the playoffs, with quite a few having Super Bowl dreams – and it appears at this stage their schedule will assist them in reaching some of those goals.
There is my initial SOS analysis for the 2012 season – I did not want to spend a ton of time discussing the #s at this point as they will still move a bunch before the season starts – so we can come back to this exercise in late August and measure the impact of changes to power ratings before the season starts. 
There is so much more to come!  Here is a brief look at some of the entries I am already working on – the plan is to post at least one, and possibly two per week in the near future, at least through May.
  1. Key Trends over last four seasons breakdown by team
  2. Updated Turnover Analysis
  3. Detailed team by team schedule capsules examining actual layout of games, the impact divisional games have, the start times, etc….I will likely break this down into 8 entries to the blog, one division per entry, two entries per week
  4. Updated Leading Indicators Analysis
  5. Statistical Influence on games – which have the greatest, and show examples from last year
  6. Projected Standings using my initial power ratings to play the entire season out
  7. The +/- 4 games analysis – each season we see approximately 25% of teams increase of decrease their win total from the prior year by 4+.  We will examine who has done this over the last few years, and try to identify prime candidates to pull it off in 2012

That only mentions a few of the great NFL things I am working on for the coming season.  Be sure to continue checking back here for more information, and as always, if you have any questions or comments do not hesitate to email me directly at boss@thesportsboss.com, or leave comment here on the blog for everyone to use as a discussion.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012

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