Monday, March 5, 2012

NCAA Tournament 2012- Updated thru 3/4 Action


**This week I will do my best updating daily**

***FEEL FREE TO DISCUSS, LEAVE COMMENTS, I WILL RESPOND TO EVERY ONE***

Here are the 31 auto-bids by conference [bold represents already won conference tournament, if championship game is known but not played yet that is listed, rest are projected winners]:

America East: Stony Brook vs. Vermont on Saturday, March 10 @ 11am

Atlantic Ten: Temple

ACC: North Carolina

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big 12: Kansas

Big East: Syracuse

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: Drexel vs. VCU on Monday, March 5 @ 7pm

Conference USA: Memphis

Horizon: Valparaiso vs. Detroit on Tuesday, March 6 @ 9pm

Ivy: Harvard (potential one game playoff on Saturday if Penn beat Princeton Tuesday night)

MAAC: Fairfield vs. Loyola Maryland on Monday, March 5 @ 7pm

MAC: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Creighton

Mountain West: UNLV

Northeast: Long Island Brooklyn vs. Robert Morris on Wednesday, March 7 @ 7pm

Ohio Valley: Murray State

Pac 12: Washington

Patriot: Bucknell vs. Lehigh on Wednesday, March 7 @ 7pm

SEC: Kentucky

Southern: Davidson vs. Western Carolina on Monday, March 5 @ 9pm

Southland: Texas Arlington

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

Summit: Oral Roberts

Sun Belt: Denver

West Coast: St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga on Monday, March 5 @ 9pm

WAC: New Mexico

Here are the 27 teams I view as “in the field” as at-large teams by conference:

America East: -

Atlantic Ten: St. Louis, Xavier

ACC: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Atlantic Sun: -

Big 12: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State

Big East: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Big Sky: -

Big South: -

Big Ten: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Big West: if Long Beach State was to lose in their conference tournament they would receive a bid, thus eliminating one at-large spot.

Colonial: loser of VCU/Drexel

Conference USA: -

Horizon: -

Ivy: -

MAAC: -

MAC: -

MEAC: -

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico

Northeast: -

Ohio Valley: -

Pac 12: California, Arizona

Patriot: -

SEC: Florida, Vanderbilt

Southern: -

Southland: -

SWAC: -

Summit: -

Sun Belt: -

West Coast: loser of St. Mary’s/Gonzaga

WAC: -

                                                                                                                                                                                                               
That is 58 of the 68 teams that will comprise the field.
                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Here are the “bubble” teams by conference, of which 10 will currently receive bids – but in some conference tournaments we will see upsets that will reduce the # of these teams receiving a bid from 10 to likely somewhere closer to 6.  I have listed here each team that has even the smallest of chances at receiving an at-large selection without winning their conference’s auto-bid just to be thorough – teams will be weeded out as the week goes on and teams lose in their conference tournaments:

America East: -

Atlantic Ten: if St. Bonaventure, LaSalle, Dayton, UMass or St. Joseph’s (PA) was to reach the A10 Final they may have a case for being one of last four teams into the field, obviously dependent on how other conference tournaments play out.

ACC: Miami (FL), NC State.  Both are likely to receive invites at this point.  Either could seal the deal for certain by advancing to the semifinal round of the ACC Tournament, while both could be in danger of barely missing out should they lose in the first round of the ACCT.

Atlantic Sun: -

Big 12: Texas.  The Horns are likely to receive a bid right now, and could seal the deal by beating Iowa State in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 Tournament Thursday.

Big East: South Florida, West Virginia.  Both teams are likely to receive bids currently, and I feel both would lock up an at-large with a win in their first game of the BET.  If Seton Hall or UConn was to advance to the semifinal round of the BET they too would move themselves into the conversation, but right now with 8-10 conference records they are 100% on the outside looking in.

Big Sky: -

Big South: -

Big Ten: Purdue, Northwestern.  The Boilers are likely in as an at-large, but picking up only one win vs. the other 5 Big Ten teams that are likely to receive invites has me placing them on bubble looking in.  A win over Nebraska in the opening round of BTT would be solid, and a good showing vs. Ohio State would lock them into a spot.  A loss to Nebraska and they will need some help.  If Northwestern was to advance to the BTT semifinals they may receive consideration; if they beat Michigan then Ohio State to reach the final they may have a case as being one of the last four invites.

Big West: -

Colonial: -

Conference USA: Southern Mississippi.  USM likely needs to advance to the CUSA Final to receive consideration, and based on their small margin for error playing a lot of close games during the season I do not see that happening. 

Horizon: -

Ivy: if Harvard was to play in and lose a one game playoff vs. Penn on Saturday they may still receive an at-large bid, but I do not expect them to lose and not receive the auto-bid.

MAAC: Iona.  With the Gaels losing in the semifinals of their conference tournament I do not think that will be enough for them to receive an at-large bid, but I will still include the on the absolute fringe of the bubble – they will need A LOT of help to grab a spot come Sunday.

MAC: -

MEAC: -

Missouri Valley: -

Mountain West: Colorado State.  The Rams probably need to win the MWCT to receive a bid, or at the very least reach the final for any hopes whatsoever.  Both scenarios unlikely in my opinion – and even if they happened there appears to be too many teams in between them and a bid to have a legit shot.

Northeast: -

Ohio Valley: -

Pac 12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Colorado.  All four of these teams at a minimum must advance to the semifinal round of the P12T.  This is likely a four bid conference, with an outside chance at five – but I feel that is unlikely with the upsets we will see this week.  I have listed the teams in the order I believe they are stacked in right now.  Stanford, UCLA, and Colorado most likely need to win the auto-bid; while Oregon may sneak in if they reach the semifinals and show well in that spot.

Patriot: -

SEC: Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State.  Alabama sits on a level above UT & MSU and could have locked up a bid with a win over Ole Miss this past weekend, but now must beat South Carolina in the first round of the SECT to remain alive.  Tennessee is the #2 seed and receives a bye, which oddly enough may hurt them not picking up the extra win.  They at least need to win their first game, facing either Ole Miss or Auburn.  Miss State has the most work to do and at least needs to win two games including beating Vanderbilt to get firmly on the bubble.

Southern: if Davidson was to lose tonight they would be on the bubble, but most likely would not receive an invite come Sunday.

Southland: -

SWAC: -

Summit: -

Sun Belt: with Middle Tennessee State losing in the QF round of the SBT they are unlikely to receive an at-large bid on Sunday.  Had they advanced to the Final and lost they would have been on the bubble.

West Coast: BYU.  The Cougars did themselves no help getting blown out by 20 to Gonzaga in the semifinals.  They still have a solid RPI, but with two teams locked into bids from the WCC they may need too much help come Sunday.

WAC: if New Mexico State loses in the final of the WACT they may still be alive to receive an at-large, but would likely wind up on the outside looking in.

Here is the order of at-large selections as we stand right now.  Just to reiterate, there are ten open spots today – but that # will be reduced due to conference tournament upsets – I currently project 6 of these teams will wind up making the dance, with #7-10 being the dreaded “last four out”:

  1. Purdue
  2. Miami (FL)
  3. Texas
  4. South Florida
  5. Alabama
  6. West Virginia
  7. NC State
  8. Oregon
  9. BYU
  10. Tennessee

Multiple Bid Conferences (48 bids here from 11 conferences + 20 additional auto-bids = 68 teams)
BE: 8                      ACC: 6                   B10: 6                    B12: 6                    SEC: 5                    P12: 4
A10: 3                    MWC: 3                WCC: 3                  COL: 2                   MVC: 2                

Team by Team variance vs. Lunardi @ espn.com
UConn: me OUT, him IN

Seton Hall: me OUT, him IN

Miami (FL): me IN, him OUT

NC State: me IN, him OUT

Northwestern: me OUT, him IN

Tennessee: me IN, him OUT

Mississippi State: me OUT, him IN

VCU: me IN, him OUT

Colorado State: me OUT, him IN

Arizona: me IN, him OUT

Oregon: me IN, him OUT

Southern Mississippi: me OUT, him IN

Today’s differences vs. Lunardi, and comments on past version differences to see which direction either of us has gone:

Comparing each of our 2/16 versions:

Illiniois: I had them OUT, Lunardi had them IN – now both of us have them OUT.  Check mark for me.

VCU: I had them IN, Lunardi had them OUT and not even in his first 8 teams OUT.  I still have them IN and feel very confident as they have reached the Colonial Final, while Lunardi has them in his “first four OUT” bucket currently.  Still undecided, but at the very least Lunardi has raised VCU a lot in his version.

Comparing each of our 2/23 versions, disregarding two teams mentioned above:

Big East: I had 9 teams receiving a bid, with the qualifier I expected it to wind up being 8 after a few conference tournament upsets.  I currently have 8 and believe all 8 will wind up receiving a bid – I mentioned in last edition I barely had UConn in the field, but didn’t expect them to hang onto a spot – and since the Huskies have a 8-10 conference record they need to play deep into the BET as mentioned above to receive any consideration.  Lunardi had UConn in the field back on 2/23, and still currently has them in on the 10 line.  As mentioned in last edition I do not understand that.  USF I have had in my bracket “pretty comfortably” as I quoted last edition, while Lunardi had them as his “first four out” and has upgraded them now to receiving a bid.  Lastly, Lunardi has Seton Hall in his field, while I do not even list them as a true bubble team.  Still a while to go but thus far it looks like another check mark for me.

Northwestern & Mississippi State: on 2/23 I had neither in the dance, and still do not while Lunardi had both in the dance two weeks ago, and still has both.  He has Northwestern in a play-in game for a 13 seed, while Miss St is “comfortably” in as an 11.  To me, like UConn (who he also has in), Northwestern going under .500 in league play has me keeping them out pretty firmly – and that is unlikely to change unless either makes their conference tournament final as mentioned above.  Mississippi State going only .500 in a poor SEC, along with a no-so-hot RPI has me keeping them out too – but they are on my “bubble” as mentioned above.  It is still too early to determine who is correct here.

Oregon: I still have the Ducks technically in the tournament as of today, but after a few conference upsets they are likely to be on the outside looking in without a few wins of their own.  Lunardi has upgraded them from “next four out” to “first four out”, so he is moving more towards my stance on the Ducks.  Check mark for me.

Comparing current versions, disregarding any teams mentioned above – quick comment on the differences and reasons I am opposite his selection:

UConn: 8-10 conference record means OUT for me, despite strong RPI

Seton Hall: 8-10 conference record, huge loss @ DePaul to close regular season means OUT for me

Miami (FL): over .500 in conference, wins over Duke and Florida State means IN for me

NC State: over .500 in conference has them IN right now, but when everything shakes out they will likely barely miss receiving an invite

Northwestern: 8-10 conference record means OUT for me

Tennessee: 10-6 conference record, winning 8 of last 9, beat Florida twice has them IN for me currently but they will likely miss out when it all shakes out

Mississippi State: .500 in one of weaker power conferences, losing 5 of last 7 means OUT for me currently – but they have a chance to improve their chances with solid performance in SECT.

VCU: 27 wins in one of better mid-major conferences, avoided early round upset in conference tourney, solid enough RPI has them IN for me

Colorado State: 8-6 record in mid-major conference, 10 losses, no key OOC wins, 4th place in their conference has them OUT for me right now.  On a good note they did manage to beat each of the teams above them who are likely to dance, they just lost too many games vs. teams below them for my liking.  Strong performance in MWCT will help boost their resume as their RPI is in line with an at-large.

Arizona: 12-6 in conference play, 21 wins in power conference, won 7 of last 9 has them IN for me but make no mistake they did not pick up any nice OOC wins, and with a first game loss in Pac Ten tourney they could be in some trouble.

Oregon: 22 wins overall, 13-5 record in conference play, won 6 of last 7 has them picking up one of last few spots right now, but that will probably mean no bid after a few conference tourney upsets this week especially with a weaker than typical RPI for an at-large, and no big OOC wins.
Southern Mississippi: played their best ball earlier in the season as they lost 3 of 5 to close year.  Weaker than typical RPI for at-large team, few nice OOC wins, beat Memphis has them on my bubble but well behind a few teams.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012

No comments:

Post a Comment