Saturday, March 10, 2012

NCAA Tournament 2012 - updated thru 3/10 afternoon games

**This week I will do my best updating daily**
Here are the 31 auto-bids by conference [bold represents already won conference tournament, if championship game is known but not played yet that is listed, rest are projected winners]:
America East: Vermont
Atlantic Ten: Xavier vs. St. Bonaventure on Sunday, March 11 @ 1pm - assume Xavier
ACC: North Carolina vs. Florida State on Sunday, March 11 @ 1pm
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big 12: Missouri
Big East: Louisville vs. Cincinnati on Saturday, March 10 @ 9pm
Big Sky: Montana
Big South: UNC-Asheville
Big Ten: Ohio State vs. Michigan State on Sunday, March 11 @ 330pm
Big West: Long Beach State vs. UC-Santa Barbara on Saturday, March 10 @ 10pm - assume LB St.
Colonial: VCU
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Detroit
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Loyola Maryland
MAC: Akron vs. Ohio on Saturday, March 10 @ 8pm
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley: Creighton
Mountain West: New Mexico vs. San Diego State on Saturday, March 10 @ 10pm
Northeast: Long Island Brooklyn
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pac 12: Colorado
Patriot: Lehigh
SEC: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt on Sunday, March 11 @ 1pm
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Lamar
SWAC: Mississippi Valley State vs. Texas Southern on Saturday, March 10 @ 8pm
Summit: South Dakota State
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky
West Coast: St. Mary’s
WAC: New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech on Saturday, March 10 @ 1159pm
Here are the 32 teams I view as “in the field” as at-large teams by conference:
**ADDED TEAMS SINCE LAST EDITION – Alabama was added to "in the field."  Few shifts from above auto-bids down to here "in the field" but nothing of consequence as all teams remained in the field of 68.
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: St. Louis, Temple
ACC: Duke, Florida State/North Carolina, Virginia
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: Kansas, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas
Big East: Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville/Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: Michigan State/Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Purdue
Big West: if Long Beach State was to lose in their conference tournament they would receive a bid, thus eliminating one at-large spot.
Colonial: Drexel
Conference USA: -
Horizon: -
Ivy: -
MAC: -
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State/New Mexico, UNLV
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: Washington, California, Arizona
Patriot: -
SEC: Florida, Vanderbilt/Kentucky, Alabama
Southern: -
Southland: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: -
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: -
That is 63 of the 68 teams that will comprise the field.
Here are the SEVEN true “bubble” teams by conference, of which FIVE will currently receive bids – but in some conference tournaments we will see upsets that will reduce the # of these teams receiving a bid from FIVE to likely somewhere closer to FOUR/THREE.
**CHANGES FROM LAST PUBLISHED VERSION: All A10 teams were removed from any shot at a bubble berth - there will be three teams from the A10, as we have had all along unless St. Bonaventure wins the final tomorrow in which case they will receive auto-bid and certainly steal a bid from rest of the at-large field but the A10 will keep their three prior bids.  Southern Miss was removed from consideration following their loss to Marshall on the CUSA SF round.  Colorado State has been removed from the discussion following their SF round loss to San Diego State - the Rams are the clear cut 4th team in the MWC, with an RPI in the mid 70s - just not enough on their resume.  Stanford has been removed from bubble talk.  In the SEC Alabama was moved up to "in the field" while Tennessee was removed from the bubble and will not be considered.  Middle Tennessee State has been removed from the bubble and will not receive consideration.  New Mexico State has likewise been removed from bubble consideration.
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: -
ACC: Miami (FL), NC State.  Both are likely to receive invites at this point, but will remain on "bubble" for tonight and be re-evaluated for last time tomorrow morning.
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: -
Big East: West Virginia, UConn.  Will leave both here for tonight, but feel both will wind up missing out - at best one makes it and I feel WVU has the better resume for reasons discussed in last edition of this blog post.
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: -
Big West: -
Colonial: -
Conference USA: -
Horizon: -
Ivy: -
MAAC: Iona.  The Gaels have actually creeped closer as the week has gone on to receiving an at-large as not much bid stealing has occurred.  They will remain for tonight and be examined one final time tomorrow for determination.
MAC: -
Missouri Valley: -
Mountain West: -
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: Oregon will remain in for tonight, but with Colorado taking the Pac 12 tourney auto-bid, the Ducks are unlikely to receive an at-large bid.
Patriot: -
SEC: -
Southern: -
Southland: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: -
West Coast: BYU.  The Cougars are right on the center of the top of the bubble.  More analysis, and more games need to be finished before finalizing their status by tomorrow afternoon.
WAC: -
Here is the order of at-large selections as we stand right now.  Just to reiterate, there are FIVE open spots today – but that # will be reduced due to conference tournament upsets – I currently project THREE of these teams will wind up making the dance, with #4-7 being the dreaded “first four out”:
  1. Miami (FL)
  2. NC State
  3. BYU
  4. West Virginia
  5. Iona
  6. Oregon
  7. UConn
What it comes down to is we currently have five spots open, and I feel good about three teams - the pair of ACC teams, and BYU listed above.  The last two spots are really wide open - but keep in mind there are still two teams that could take care of that issue by stealing an auto-bid: St. Bonaventure & UC-Santa Barbara.  Should both those teams win I would feel solid about my 68 team field - if either or both lose deciding on those final two at-large spots which would be teams that will play on Dayton play-in games on Tuesday will be tough. 
Multiple Bid Conferences (47 bids here from 11 conferences + 21 additional auto-bids = 68 teams)
BE: 8                      ACC: 6                   B10: 6                    B12: 6                    SEC: 4                   P12: 4
A10: 3                    MWC: 3                WCC: 3                  COL: 2                   MVC: 2                MAAC: 2

Team by Team variance vs. Lunardi @
UConn: me OUT, him IN
Seton Hall: me OUT, him IN
Miami (FL): me IN, him OUT
NC State: me IN, him OUT
Northwestern: he has now moved Northwestern OUT, as I have had all along.
Mississippi State: me OUT, him IN
Colorado State: me OUT, him IN
Washington: me IN, him OUT
Oregon: me IN, him OUT
Southern Mississippi: me OUT, him IN

Drexel: me IN, him OUT


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