* did not receive a bid
1) America East: Vermont 16
4) Atlantic Ten: St. Bonaventure 14, St Louis 9, Temple 5, Xavier 10
6) ACC: Florida State 3, North Carolina 1, Duke 2, Virginia 10, Miami (FL)*, NC State 11
1) Atlantic Sun: Belmont 14
6) Big 12: Missouri 2, Kansas 2, Baylor 3, Iowa State 8, Kansas State 8, Texas 11
8) Big East: Louisville 4, Syracuse 1, Marquette 3, Georgetown 3, Cincinnati 6, Notre Dame 7, South Florida 12, West Virginia 10
1) Big Sky: Montana 13
1) Big South: UNC-Asheville 16
6) Big Ten: Ohio State 2, Michigan State 1, Michigan 4, Wisconsin 4, Indiana 4, Purdue 10
1) Big West: Long Beach State 12
2) Colonial: VCU 12, Drexel*
1) Conference USA: Memphis 8
1) Horizon: Detroit 15
1) Ivy: Harvard 12
1) MAAC: Loyola Maryland 15
1) MAC: Ohio 13
1) MEAC: Norfolk State 15
2) Missouri Valley: Creighton 8, Wichita State 5
3) Mountain West: New Mexico 5, UNLV 6, San Diego State 6
1) Northeast: Long Island Brooklyn 16
1) Ohio Valley: Murray State 6
4) Pac 12: Colorado 11, California 12, Washington*, Arizona*
1) Patriot: Lehigh 15
4) SEC: Vanderbilt 5, Kentucky 1, Florida 7, Alabama 9
1) Southern: Davidson 13
1) Southland: Lamar 16
1) SWAC: Mississippi Valley State 16
1) Summit: South Dakota State 14
1) Sun Belt: Western Kentucky 16
3) West Coast: St. Mary’s 7, Gonzaga 7, BYU 14
1) WAC: New Mexico State 13
First analysis, let’s look at the four teams we projected incorrectly vs. who received those bids:
- Washington: I had them securely in as the #3 Pac 12 team, and it turns out they were not even part of the “six team vote” that would have taken place for the final at large-spot had Xavier beat St. Bonaventure. Lunardi had them in his “first four out” bucket yesterday, and had them in the field as recent as his March 9th version. Ken Pom rated the Huskies #67, right behind South Florida and ahead of Southern Mississippi (who received an invite as a 9 seed somehow, I had them OUT) & Colorado State (who received an invite as an 11 seed, I had them out). RPI wise Washington was #70, Southern Mississippi was #21, Colorado State was #27, and South Florida was #51 – those numbers certainly support the teams that got in, vs. Washington who missed out. However, from my perspective, Washington went 14-4 and won the regular season outright, while Southern Miss was 2nd place in CUSA, Colorado State was 4th place in MWC, and South Florida was 6th place in Big East with an unbalanced schedule they greatly benefited from. Using the eye test I also place Washington above all three of those teams. I feel they deserved a bid, and the Pac 12 as a whole while certainly not having a very solid year, got burned on invites and seeds.
- Arizona: I also had them relatively safely in the field as the #4 Pac 12 team, but did realize their chances were hurt when Colorado won the auto-bid as five Pac 12 teams at that point did seem to be a stretch with the reputation it had for most of the season. However, 23 wins and a top 50 Ken Pom rating had me thinking they would sneak in – but a mid 70s RPI, only 1 top 50 win, and a 5-9 record vs. the Top 100 in RPI has me thinking the committee did the right thing leaving the Wildcats out of this year’s tournament.
- Drexel: I bumped the Dragons into the field following their loss in the Colonial Conference Tournament final – I had maintained all along I felt as long as both VCU and Drexel reached the final both teams would receive a bid. The Colonial was one of the strongest mid-major conferences this season, especially at the top with Drexel, VCU, George Mason and Old Dominion – something I felt the committee would consider, especially following the Dragons thumping of Cleveland State on the road during bracket-buster weekend. Ken Pom has Drexel rated very high at #41, RPI had them #64, 27 overall wins and an outright regular season champ of the Colonial I thought was enough to warrant one of the last few at-large selections. I still feel they deserved to receive a bid.
- Miami (FL): the Hurricanes were one of my “last four in” teams, and still feel they should have received an at-large bid based on their body of work over the entire season. RPI rating is #59, Ken Pom rating is #38, and a pair of wins over Top 25 RPI teams including Duke on the road I felt was enough. But 3-11 vs. Top 100 RPI teams is not good, nor was their OOC performance losing to Ole Miss, Purdue, Memphis and West Virginia – but one has to think now if they had played 4 cupcakes instead and went 4-0 in those games, sliding their record to 23-8 with wins over Duke and Florida State if they would not have received a bid. I could go either way on the Hurricanes, but do feel they should have snuck in.
Second analysis, let’s look at the four teams that did receive bids that I did not have in my final projection:
- Southern Mississippi: I just am not a big fan of the Golden Eagles and think they were gifted such a high seed, let alone even being invited to the tournament. 5 losses in the CUSA regular season, of their 12 conference wins including the CUSAT nine (or 75%) of them were by 4pts or less or in OT! A loss to Marshall in the CUSA SF round only solidifies me feelings, along with a #71 Ken Pom rating are terrible. Somehow they had a nice RPI of #21 which was massive, along with their strong record vs. Top 100 RPI teams of 9-5 helped their case. They do not pass my eye test for certain, and fading them vs. Kansas State is one of my biggest early targets in the first round (yes, that game is truly first round, not the 2nd round the NCAA is trying to tout them as with these play-in games).
- Colorado State: going 8-6 in MWC play just does not do it for me, I have a hard time justifying an at-large selection on the 4th best team in the MWC when the regular season winner of the Pac 12 does not get an invite. Ken Pom has CSU all the way down at #76, but the Rams do grade out well in the RPI checking in @ #27 mostly due to a strong SOS. CSU accomplished nothing in their OOC schedule losing to Stanford by 12, Southern Miss by 21, and Duke by 23 – it is nice to play a tougher schedule, but if teams do not win those games they should not be rewarded for doing so which is exactly what happened here. They also only won 1 road game in MWC play, 1-6 on the road only beating Air Force in their last road game of the year! I just do not see how they deserved a slot, especially say over Washington.
- Iona: the Gaels were my last team out following the St. Bonaventure win over Xavier. I can understand the frustration many fans are showing today regarding their inclusion in the bracket, but to me, the two teams mentioned above are somehow coasting by most fans and analysts when they are the two that had no business receiving an invite. Iona had a solid RPI of #42, and Ken Pom had them #57 – both numbers OK, not great, but not bad. Iona was only 0-2 vs. Top 50 teams which is cause for concern, but they did go 5-1 against RPI #51-100, and closed the season 10-2 over their last 12 including a bracket-buster win over Nevada. They did win the MAAC outright by two games, and won 25 games which are also impressive – however no big wins should have hurt them more than it did.
- UConn: the Huskies I left out for the simple fact they went 8-10 in their conference during the regular season – I do not feel any team that cannot at a minimum go .500 in conference play should ever receive an at-large invite. A solid RPI of #32 again based on SOS does not impress me much when you look closer and see UConn was 1-6 vs. RPI Top 25, and 3-8 vs. RPI Top 50. When you look at their performance in conference play they did not beat any of the other 8 teams that received bids sans West Virginia, whom they beat twice, along with Notre Dame & USF whom they beat once. I feel Miami (FL) was a better option from a power conference.
Summary: I feel Southern Miss, Colorado State and UConn all did not deserve a bid for reasons described above. In addition, I feel all three of those squads are good fade material in their first game because they are not as solid as some of their numbers portray them to be. Washington and Drexel had the best cases for teams left out of the dance in my opinion, with Miami (FL) right behind them – if I was in the committee I would have shifted out the three mentioned above for the Washington, Drexel and Miami (FL) – I am OK with Iona receiving a bid and taking part in the play-in game as they did have a solid season, and I would rather reward mid-major teams that have strong records as opposed to BCS conference teams that go below .500, or in some cases .500 during their conference slate.
Lastly, let’s take a closer look at seeding, and see where some opportunities may lie as far as playing these games ATS. What I am going to do here is just strictly based on the eye test I will lay out the 68 teams included in the field in order of how good I think they are, basically states who I would take on a neutral floor if any of these teams would play each other, better ranking below is who I would take. It would be too much work and analysis to research all the necessary numbers (RPI, Ken Pom, records, etc…) and slot teams like that. This does not mean the teams are listed how deep into the tournament I believe they will play because I am not taking into consideration brackets – it is strictly eye test, how I rank the teams (seed, region):
- Kentucky (1S)
- North Carolina (1M)
- Missouri (2W)
- Syracuse (1E)
- Kansas (2M)
- Ohio State (2E)
- Duke (2S)
- Michigan State (1W)
- Florida State (3E)
- Georgetown (3M)
- Marquette (3W)
- Vanderbilt (5E)
- New Mexico (5W)
- Baylor (3S)
- Louisville (4W)
- Cincinnati (6E)
- Murray State (6W)
- Temple (5M)
- Michigan (4M)
- Wichita State (5S)
- Florida (7W)
- Kansas State (8E)
- Wisconsin (4E)
- Indiana (4S)
- Virginia (10W)
- Iowa State (8S)
- Memphis (8W)
- St. Louis (9W)
- Long Beach State (12W)
- UNLV (6S)
- St. Mary’s (7M)
- Creighton (8M)
- California (12M play-in game)
- VCU (12S)
- UConn (9S)
- Gonzaga (7E)
- Notre Dame (7S)
- San Diego State (6M)
- West Virginia (10E)
- Alabama (9M)
- South Florida (12M play-in game)
- BYU (14W play-in game)
- Purdue (10M)
- New Mexico State (13S)
- NC State (11M)
- Xavier (10S)
- Texas (11E)
- Colorado (11S)
- Ohio (13M)
- Colorado State (11W)
- St. Bonaventure (14E)
- Southern Mississippi (9E)
- Davidson (13W)
- Harvard (12E)
- Iona (14W play-in game)
- Detroit (15M)
- Montana (13E)
- Belmont (14M)
- South Dakota State (14S)
- Lamar (16M play-in game)
- Lehigh (15S)
- LIU Brooklyn (16W)
- Vermont (16M play-in game)
- Loyola Maryland (15E)
- UNC-Asheville (16E)
- Mississippi Valley State (16S play-in game)
- Norfolk State (15W)
- Western Kentucky (16S play-in game)
Region strength
East: 557
West: 477 (includes the average of the play in game – BYU 42, Iona 55 = 48)
Midwest: 544 (includes average of two play in games – Cal/USF 37, Lamar/Vermont 61)
South: 553 (includes average of play in game – MSVU 66, WKU 68 = 67)
East
|
West
|
Midwest
|
South
| |
1-10
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
11-20
|
2
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
Top 20
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
21-30
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
3
|
Top 30
|
7
|
11
|
5
|
7
|
31-40
|
2
|
0
|
5
|
3
|
41-50
|
1
|
1
|
3
|
3
|
Top 50
|
10
|
12
|
13
|
13
|
51-60
|
4
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
61-68
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
TOTAL
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
16
|
*For the above table I used the average of the rankings for the 4 play-in games to fill each region to 16 teams. For example, California is ranked #33, South Florida ranked #41; the average of those two is #37, so the Midwest region had an added team in the 31-40 bucket.
Few areas really stand out in this analysis, the first being the strength of the West region. It is clearly superior in every bucket above, with the most top 20 & top 30 teams in that bracket – what is interesting about this region as #1 seed Michigan State I rank #8 overall, which really shows how strong the rest of this region really is. The West really strengthens in the 21-30 area where I rank 5 of their teams (Florida 7 seed #21, Virginia 10 seed #25, Memphis 8 seed #27, St. Louis 9 seed #28, Long Beach State 12 seed #29) – the other 3 regions combined only have 5 teams in that bucket. In addition, that region only has one team in the 31-50 buckets, which is the play-in game between #42 BYU and #55 Iona. With all these strong teams in one region, let’s take a closer look at the first round matchups according to my rankings:
1 seed Michigan State (#8) vs. 16 seed LIU Brooklyn (#62): close to where it should be, many argue Missouri should have been the #1 seed here; my rankings basically state they are according to matchups
2 seed Missouri (#3) vs. 15 seed Norfolk State (#67): Missouri received a 1 seed opponent here
3 seed Marquette (#11) vs. 14 seed BYU (#42) / Iona (#55): should BYU beat Iona Marquette is essentially playing a 6/7 seed opponent, so tougher draw than they should have.
4 seed Louisville (#15) vs. 13 seed Davidson (#53): right on target
5 seed New Mexico (#13) vs. 12 seed Long Beach State (#29): I had New Mexico ranking wise as closer to a 4 seed, but either way they got a tough draw as LBST in my opinion is more like a 7/8 seed.
6 seed Murray State (#17) vs. 11 seed Colorado State (#50): Murray State was not seeded correctly in my opinion for the year they had, should have been closer to a 4/5 seed – but at least the committee did reward them with a weak first game as CSU, as mentioned above and discussed a lot, I felt should have not received a bid – even so with them in the field I slot them closer to a 12/13 seed (which turns out to be typically a seed for one of last team’s in the field).
7 seed Florida (#21) vs. 10 seed Virginia (#25): UF I have as around a 5/6 seed, while Virginia should be a 7/8. This is a tough opening matchup for both teams, who are both undervalued in these spots.
8 seed Memphis (#27) vs. 9 seed St. Louis (#28): I have both these teams on the 7/8 line, so in reality both would be receiving a tough matchup in the first round either in this kind of 8/9 game, or the 7/10 which are always equally as tough. And the teams rated high 20s to low 30s are very close to each other, so there should be no real complaints here from either team.
Biggest difference between seed and seeds based on my rankings (actual seed, my seed):
2 seeds variance: Vanderbilt (5,3); Cincinnati (6,4); Kansas State (8,6); St Louis (9,7); UNLV (6,8); Gonzaga (7,9); New Mexico State (13,11); Xavier (10,12); Colorado State (11,13); Harvard (12,14); Montana (13,15)
3 seeds variance: Virginia (10,7); California (12,9); VCU (12,9); Notre Dame (7,10); BYU (14,11)
4 seeds variance: Long Beach State (12,8); San Diego State (6,10); Southern Mississippi (9,13)
Hope that analysis helps you some when it is time to win some money on Thursday! My NCAA Tournament package is posted on the website for purchase, only $199 for an estimated 30 plays. Grab it and WIN BIG, been ON FIRE OF LATE!
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