NCAAF Week 5 Line Moves
1.
#23
Florida State from -13 to -10 @ Wake Forest
a.
What
it means? This move was based on
performance of both squads – FSU has lost back to back games, while Wake Forest
is 3-1 and likely would be 4-0 had QB Price not been injured in Syracuse loss.
b.
What
will happen? Seems like a slight
over-reaction here as the Seminoles were without QB Manuel for about half of
the OU game and the entire Clemson game, while WF has beaten up on 2 lower
level BCS teams BC & NC State.
Manuel is expected to play and be 100%, and the ‘Noles have been
simmering for two weeks to get back on field and pick up a win – both unlikely
to be good for WF.
2.
#24
Texas A&M from -6.5 to -9.5 @ Texas Tech
a.
What
it means? This move is really about the
fact A&M had both Oklahoma State and Arkansas beat and gave those games
away, while Texas Tech comes in undefeated but has not played anyone with a pulse
– their best win @ Kansas last week.
b.
What
will happen? A&M has proved they are
a strong club despite the major failings that occurred the last two weeks against
decent teams. Texas Tech always has a
strong passing game, and the Aggies have given up an average of 474 yards
passing a game over last two weeks. Plus
a big concern needs to be placed on the Aggies confidence.
3.
#7
Stanford from -27 to -30 hosting Colorado
a.
What
it means? Stanford has looked impressive
thru 4 games averaging 45.8ppg while allowing 11.5 –close to the 30pt line here. Colorado checks in at 1-4, but has played a
very tough schedule with no cupcakes, and has been competitive in 3 of their 5
games.
b.
What
will happen? Luck and Co. hasn’t skipped
a beat thus far in 2011 including whipping Arizona and UCLA in Pac 12
play. After Colorado allowed 37 in
Columbus a few weeks ago against a very subpar Ohio State squad, it’s hard to
see them not yielding 45+ in this game – how many can they score?
4.
Southern
Mississippi from -1 to +2.5 @ Navy
a.
What
it means? Most of this move relates to
the status of the RB unit at Southern Miss as their top 2 RBs are listed as
questionable, the rest probably misguided based on records. SMiss checks in at 4-1 with its lone loss @
Marshall. Navy is 2-2, beating up on 2
cupcakes to open the season before suffering back to back tough losses to South
Carolina & Air Force.
b.
What
will happen? The status of RB’s Hardy
and Woodyard will need to be monitored right up until kick-off. Navy is coming off an emotional home loss to
Air Force, and could struggle moving the ball via the ground game vs. the stout
run defense of the Golden Eagles.
5.
#12
Michigan from -3.5 to -7.5 @ Northwestern
a.
What
it means? Michigan has started 5-0 and
climbed all the way from unranked to #12 in the country which is building a lot
of public momentum. Northwestern checks
in at 2-2, off back to back one score road losses to Army and Illinois. Line move based on NW coming off back to back
losses, is not widely regarded, and Michigan has won 8 of the last 10 meetings.
b.
What
will happen? Northwestern is clearly a
different team with QB Persa on the field, as witnessed by most of the Illinois
game. He is playing this week and is
expected to be 100%. For all the good
Michigan has done they have only played one BCS level squad Notre Dame, and it
took a frantic 4th quarter comeback to win. This is Michigan’s first road game with the
new coaching staff. © 2011 The SportsBoss
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