NCAAF Rankings

A piece I wrote two weeks ago, finally getting around to posting.   And will be adding an updated version sometime within the next few days.

College Football Top 15 heading into Week 6 games

I usually like to post more often on college football, prefer being able to give a new set of rankings each week, but time has eluded me for completing this task thus far during the 2011 season.  But as we head into conference play, with most of the out-of-conference action behind us, here is how I see the Top 15 – keep in mind my rankings are based on how good I think the teams are – not where I think they should be ranked right now because of their record, and not where I think they will finish the season.  Purely based on talent, and how well they have played thus far through 5 games:

1.       Oklahoma [4-0]: really a toss-up for top spot in my rankings between the Sooners and the LSU Tigers but since OU has Landry Jones, and LSU is rolling with Jarrett Lee, we’ll give the edge to the Sooners at this point in the season.  OU has looked excellent thus far through 4 games picking up a nice road win in Tallahassee in Wk3, sandwiched between bombings of Tulsa & Ball State, along with a decent but not overly convincing win in Norman over Missouri.  This team is led by a lethal offense spear-headed by Landry Jones passing, Ryan Broyles & Kenny Stills receiving, and Dominique Whaley rushing.  Big Red River Rivalry matchup this week vs. an over-rated Texas squad won’t tell us much, but a tough close to the season with 4 of last 5 vs. currently ranked teams will be key – especially Nov 19 @ Baylor, and last game of the season Dec. 3 @ Oklahoma State, a matchup that may have more than just a Big 12 title on the line.

2.       LSU [5-0]: hard to argue there is any team in America that has more big wins early in the season than the LSU Tigers, who have handled 3 ranked teams in their first 5 games, with none of those games in the friendly confines of Tiger Stadium (neutral vs. Oregon, @ Mississippi State, @ West Virginia).  There was concern heading into the season at the QB spot, even before Jordan Jefferson was suspended for multiple games after a bar fight before the season started.  Jarrett Lee stepped in and performed as needed – take care of the football, make passing plays when in a bind, and be a leader.  At some point however, you have to think Lee will need to make some big plays in the passing game for the Bayou Tigers to get through this season unscathed – will he be able to step up?  But truth is the defense, which I think is best in America (sorry Tide fans), has made key play after key play, led by the dynamic playmaking ability of Sophomore CB Tyrann Mathieu who has 36 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 interception in 2011.  Their conference slate is extremely manageable outside the Nov. 5 showdown in Tuscaloosa vs. the Crimson Tide – but at least they have a week off before making this trip.

3.       Alabama [5-0]: the Tide have looked every bit as impressive as the top 2 teams in the rankings, with a 30pt average margin of victory through 5 games including three easy wins vs. teams ranked at time of game.  Bama and LSU are almost clones of each other with strong stifling defenses, strong running games, and inexperienced and not overly talented QB’s.  RB Trent Richardson is one of the early favorites to win the Heisman Trophy rushing for 622 yards on 96 carries (6.1/carry) and 10 TD’s.  For good measure he has also caught 11 passes for another 148 yards and a touchdown.  His production will go a long way in determining how successful Alabama will be this season, especially vs. LSU in early November.  The schedule sets up nicely, like LSU, facing only one more ranked team sans LSU, @ Auburn to close the season.

4.       Wisconsin [5-0]: the Badgers have looked strong in all facets of the game, led by a bruising running game, and transfer QB Russell Wilson.  Wisky checks in 10^th in the country with 243 yards rushing per game, led by the one-two punch of Montee Ball and James White.  The early Christmas present of Russell Wilson landing in Madison has produced a potent passing attack, something the Badgers are usually lacking to be a true national title contender.  The defense has also played well through the first 5 games checking in at #2 in the country in points allowed @ 10.2, only trailing Alabama.  Two small concerns about how “in the mix” they will be for a national title are the fact they haven’t left Madison yet, and they have only played one ranked team, Nebraska, who is over-rated in the polls but is still a decent squad.  Their remaining schedule is also very manageable, facing only one currently ranked team #19 Illinois (on the road).  The other three road games are Michigan State, Ohio State and Minnesota.  They also avoid Michigan and Iowa from the Legends division, at least during the regular season.  They may have what it takes to make it through the regular season undefeated, but they then would have to play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, and also hope no other non-SEC teams go undefeated or they may be on the outside looking in on the National Championship Game.

5.       Stanford [4-0]: the Cardinal have steamrolled the competition through four weeks, seemingly not missing a beat since losing HC Jim Harbaugh to the NFL.  Andrew Luck continues improving his stock, if that is even possible, leading his team to a 34.3 average margin of victory thus far by featuring a balanced attack ranking #32 in passing yards, and #31 in rushing yards through 4 games.  Stanford only has 3 road games left, having already throttled Duke and Arizona in Durham and Tucson, respectively – and although they will be favored in all 3, Washington State and USC will not be easy wins – or at least as easy as they handled Duke and Zona.  But they do still have 3 non-cupcake home games, facing Washington (who has already beat Cal at home and beat Utah on road), Oregon (likely to decide the Pac 12 North winner), and Notre Dame (last game of season, a BCS bid could be on the line for both schools).  Even with Luck and how well they have looked so far it may be asking too much for the Cardinal to win out, but another BCS appearance, maybe even a Rose Bowl bid is within reach – most of which will ride on the Oregon game Nov. 12.

6.       Clemson [5-0]: yes, the Clemson Tigers ranked #6 so far – who would have thunk it!?!  Give Dabo and Co. credit for the start to their season in what many expected to be a rebuilding season of sorts.  Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd has stepped in for the much maligned Kyle Parker and played incredibly well for a first time starter, completing 61.3% of his passes for 1459 yards, 14 TD’s/2 INT’s and a QB Rating of 159.4.  After Clemson started the season struggling to put away a pair of lesser talented teams including FCS foe Wofford, I do not think many if anyone was thinking this team would follow that winning 3 straight over the defending National Champs Auburn, Florida State who started the season in most people’s top 5, and perennial ACC Coastal Champ Virginia Tech.  Now Clemson is sitting at 5-0, atop the Atlantic Division, and looking for its first ACC Championship in some 20 years.  There are still many landmines on the Orange Tigers schedule, including two big time road tilts @ Georgia Tech on Oct. 29, and @ South Carolina on Nov. 26.  In past years it was also the games they should have won that wound up costing them, so we still cannot dismiss games @ Maryland and vs. North Carolina either.  Even with all the success so far I cannot see this team winning out, but a birth in the ACC Championship Game is certainly within reach, and probably likely at this point considering the win over Florida State, who seems to be the only real threat in the division.  If so, a rematch with either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech would seem to be on the horizon, with a BCS birth to likely the Orange Bowl on the line.  Either way, this team looks like it has finally found its man on the sidelines, and an exciting QB under center who is only a Soph. – they will be a force to be reckoned with the next 2 seasons.

7.       Georgia Tech [5-0]: this is where the rankings take a step down, as the top 6 have been clearly the best in college football thus far through 5 weeks – and these next few teams starting with GT are a notch below.  The Ramblin' Wreck has been an offensive juggernaut so far as Paul Johnson and crew have the triple option running on all cylinders, and a defense that is doing just enough so far to win games.  Tech leads the country in rushing amassing 378.2 yards per game so far – yes that figure includes games vs. Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee State, but MTS game was on road, and they have also faced 3 BCS conference teams including one on road  – so that schedule, while certainly not a death march, hasn’t been cupcake city either.  The big question, as is always the case in Atlanta, will be can GT pass the ball effectively enough when it has to – because make no mistake, although the ground game has been incredible thus far, there will be times when it will not be working at this high a level – there is a reason they are the only BCS conference team that runs the triple option currently – and how will Tevin Washington respond?  So far so good: 31/54 57.4% 10TD/1INT Rating 260.7.  But with only 54 attempts through 5 games, you have to believe at some point, in some game, the Jackets will be down due to their mediocre defense, and be forced to pass the ball a little more than they are comfortable with.  The schedule is brutal for ACC standards to close the season still having to play @ Miami, host Clemson and Virginia Tech, and the annual meeting with Georgia at home to close the season.  Hey, at least three of those four are at the friendly confines of Bobby Dodd stadium, but not sure GT is consistent enough on either side of the ball to win 10 regular season games before the potential ACC Championship Game.

8.       Oklahoma State [4-0]: the Pokes have been superb on the offensive side of the ball, as was expected heading into the 2011 campaign.  Brandon Weeden leads a passing game that checks in #1 in the country tallying 416 yards per game, and Justin Blackmon has been as good as advertised with 38 receptions for 450 yards and 4 TD’s.  Weeden at this point is in the mix for Heisman consideration, while Blackmon was among the favorites heading into the season but likely has to pick up the “big play” pace if he hopes to attend the NY ceremony in December.  Mike Gundy has done a heck of a job in Stillwater, but is often overshadowed by Bob Stoops’ Sooners just down the road – there will be no better way to steal some of the thunder than Gundy leading his Cowboys to a win over OU in Stillwater on Dec. 3.  State will clearly need some improved play from their defense if they have any hopes of winning the Big 12, and potentially playing in the National Championship Game as allowing 34 to Louisiana Lafayette and 33 to Tulsa are just not numbers you see from the elite national title contenders.  As usual the Big 12 is deep, with a handful of teams ranked in the top 15 range, and OSU has 4 games remaining vs. currently ranked teams, but only one of those is on the road @ Texas Oct. 15.  But road trips to Columbia vs. Missouri, Lubbock vs. Texas Tech and even Ames vs. Iowa State will be no walks in the park.  The Pokes control their own destiny for a Big 12 Title if they win out (they are likely to be favored in all games outside Oklahoma), including beating the aforementioned Sooners last game of the season.  Possible, but unlikely as their defense will not hold up against the better offenses, and the offense themselves seems to make too many mistakes against better defenses.

9.       Oregon [4-1]: after a disappointing effort to start the season vs. LSU in Jerry’s World, the Ducks have been back to their usual selves amassing points and yardage in tons and hammering opponents into misery.  In the last four games they have scored an average of 56ppg while allowing 18.3ppg, and nice cool winning margin of 37.7ppg.  Granted, three of those games were in Autzen, and none of these games were against any teams likely to accomplish much of anything this season, but it showed they still have the juice and confidence to get the job done.  Oregon checks in #2 rushing thus far amassing 312.6 yards per game, only trailing the run happy Yellow Jackets mentioned above.  Speaking of that ground game, LaMichael James has returned for his junior year in Eugene and after a slow start has picked it up eclipsing 200 yards rushing in each of his last 3 games, two of which were against fellow Pac 12 members.  For good balance, QB Darron Thomas has done a good job passing the rock and seems to be improving by the week.  On the season his rating is 159.4, and he has thrown 10TD vs. 2INT – which is exactly what HC Chip Kelly wants from his man under center – manage the game, hand the ball off to the punishing ground game, and pass when needed without making mistakes – for good measure Thomas has rushed for another 191 yards and 4 TD.  Defensively the Ducks are breaking in a lot of new inexperienced players, but they are talented and improving each quarter learning on the job.  The Ducks have two games remaining vs. currently ranked teams, but the real question is will anyone outside Stanford be able to score enough points to take Oregon down?  Seems unlikely from my vantage point – the 3 toughest games remaining in my opinion come in a 3 week stretch towards end of season: @ Washington Nov. 5, @ Stanford Nov. 12, and hosting USC Nov. 19.  Outside the Stanford game Oregon will be favored in all their remaining games, likely laying double digits.  The Stanford matchup will determine the Pac 12 North winner, who will likely host the South winner in the inaugural Pac 12 title game in December with the winner either going to the National Title game, or the Rose Bowl.  The loser of the Oregon/Stanford game could still potentially receive an at-large BCS bowl bid, especially with the non-AQ schools that typically try and invade the party not looking quite as strong as usual (though Boise State is likely a lock for one bid).  Either way, Nov. 12 is the day of reckoning, and ultimately will decide how successful this season will be for Oregon.

10.   Michigan [5-0]: the Wolverines have been impressive thus far under the new coaching staff led by HC Hoke, OC Borges and DC Mattison.  Yes, it’s true they have only played one strong team in Notre Dame, and it took a comeback of epic proportions to win that game; and yes its true they have not left the friendly confines of the Big House as of yet – but it’s hard to argue the improvements that have been made defensively allowing less points in 5gms so far than they allowed vs. Mississippi State in a bowl game to close last season.  Denard Robinson continues playing at an extremely high level and is in the mix to win the Heisman Trophy as he has adapted ok to the new pro-style offense run by Borges, passing for 793 yards with a rating of 144.0 thru the air, and feasting once again via his legs for another 603 yards.  The defense will be tested more as the season progresses, heading into conference play, especially on the road.  But if the offense can continue playing at a high level, they just may be able to outscore their remaining opponents and win the Legends division.  The schedule certainly picks up from here on out with road games @ Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois, along with home tilts of note vs. Nebraska and Ohio State.  But they will likely be favored in all but one remaining game, so a birth in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game could be in the cards, especially if they can split with Michigan State and Iowa on the road.

11.   South Carolina [4-1]: Spurrier seemed to finally have all the stars aligned for the 2011 season with South Carolina, but is has started somewhat rocky, including a home loss to Auburn in Wk5.  Signs of danger were already present before that loss, maybe even before the season with Stephen Garcia, his much maligned QB, continuing to find trouble off the field.  Then the season started with Connor Shaw under center, only to be pulled when the Cocks went down big to East Carolina in their opener – Garcia led the comeback, but the team continued struggling in the next 3 games with a pair of 3pt wins, and an uninspiring 21-3 win vs. Navy at home.  The one good thing is the SEC East is still down and open for the taking, and maybe just maybe the Auburn loss woke up SC for bigger things down the road.  There is no arguing the talent on this team, especially defensively led by the best defensive line in the nation – but can the passing game compliment Mr. All Everything Marcus Lattimore to reach the lofty goals set upon this team entering the season?  The schedule is manageable to close the season, with games vs. 3 teams that are currently ranked - @ Arkansas Nov. 5, hosting Florida Nov. 12, and closing the season hosting Clemson Nov. 26.  If they win out, which could happen being that they will be favored in every game but maybe @ Arkansas, and win the SEC Title game over Alabama or LSU, they still have a shot at playing in the National Title game – but those are all big “if’s.”  I think right now Gamecock fans would settle for just winning the SEC East for only the 2^nd time in their history.

12.   Auburn [4-1]: yes, the defending National champs are checking in at #12 right now in this poll.  Sure, they struggled in an opening week win over Utah State on the Plains, yes it took a goal line tackle in Wk2 to beat Mississippi State at home, yes they lost by double digits @ Clemson, and yes they struggled some to put away a weak Florida Atlantic team – but they won 3 of those 4 games which is all that matters, and followed that up with a big win @ South Carolina in Wk5.  It was going to take some time for Gene Chizik and his team to get up to speed this season following the loss of a ton of key players from last year’s championship team, but they are getting better by the week, and will be a force to be reckon with as the season progresses.  Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb lead a dual headed rushing attack behind an offensive line that is improving, and the defense has improved in every week allowing less points then the week before.  Yes, QB Barrett Trotter will need to play better, especially throwing fewer interceptions and the schedule will toughen up some – but this is Auburn, the defending national champs – the talent is in the cupboard, it just needs to come out and get some reps.  The Tigers face a BRUTAL schedule to close the season facing 4 ranked teams, 3 in the current top ten.  Last week at South Carolina started a four week gauntlet of @ SCAR, @ ARK, FLA, @ LSU…yikes, welcome to the SEC.  They also still must travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and close the season hosting a revenge minded Alabama Crimson Tide.  It’s hard to envision a scenario where AU wins the West, but they should remain competitive in most games, with the dividends to this season paying off next year.

13.   Florida State [2-2]: a two loss team ranked #13, ahead of an undefeated Boise State and Texas?  The answer is yes, as this poll is about talent and where teams DESERVED to be ranked right now, not looking at 2 losses and automatically pushing their rating lower than their true talent.  FSU has lost a pair of games, to #1 Oklahoma and #6 Clemson – both games where their QB EJ Manuel didn’t finish or play at all, and the latter on the road.  If Manuel doesn’t go down in the OU game do they have a chance?  Do they win the Clemson game in Death Valley?  We will never know, but we do know they are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball, and when everyone is healthy they are a team that clearly will be in the ACC mix.  The Noles are not back to their old selves, the 1990’s flashy overly talented teams – but they are attempting to regain that swagger under 2^nd year coach Jimbo Fisher – who is bringing in a ton of talent since taking over for legend Bobby Bowden.  The key to FSU having a successful close to their season will be the health of Manuel, along with improving a running game that is struggling so far because of poor blocking, and under production from their backs.  The defense is stout, and is full of playmakers – but the offense needs to pull its own weight because the defensive unit isn’t quite to the level of an LSU or Alabama.  It’s going to be tough for the Seminoles to get back to the ACC title game as they trail Clemson by 1.5 games already having lost to the Tigers, but they definitely have a more favorable remaining conference slate than Clemson – then they have the big time in-state rivalry game with the Gators in the Swamp to close the season.  It is not out of the realm of possibility, matter of fact I think it is likely that FSU wins their remaining ACC games and closes their conference season at 7-1, but it will still take two losses from Clemson to win the Atlantic.  More likely is their game with Florida decides their fate as an at-large BCS team – a win there and a season record of 10-2 with losses to Clemson and Oklahoma may get them that coveted at large BCS bid.

14.   Boise State [4-0]: let’s be honest here, this is not the BSU team that we have seen the last few seasons.  I know they opened the season with a nice win over Georgia in the Georgia Dome, essentially a road game for the orange and blue – but how good is Georgia – UGA looks like a 7-5 maybe 8-4 type team.  And that game was played very close statistically – stats and margin of victory are very important to a Boise State club as those are the metrics many use to attempt to gauge how good the team is since they are not facing top level competition really at all during regular season.  The three games following the UGA matchup have been less than inspiring victories over the likes of Toledo, Tulsa and Nevada.  Kellen Moore is clearly the real deal – he is a lock to be invited to NY for the Heisman ceremony, and a likely first round draft pick – but his numbers haven’t been as good since losing star wideouts Titus Young and Austin Pettis.  The defense has yielded ~ 15ppg the last 3 outings, nothing to sneeze at, but last year they would have allowed 15 points total over that same span vs. that competition.  And the worst part for Boise is they will not face anyone that is highly regarded for the rest of the season, even with the jump to the MWC.  TCU this year is not TCU from the last few years, San Diego State is not the same team with Brady Hoke roaming the Michigan sidelines, and while Air Force is a decent squad, it is not exactly resume bolstering material.  I see Boise State running the table this year but once again, not being invited to the big game.  Only way an undefeated Boise State would have a shot in my opinion (also assuming the SEC winner gets one invite to the Championship Game) is if multiple BCS conference teams like Oklahoma and Wisconsin lost twice – one loss BCS conference teams will get the edge over Boise when it comes down to it at season end.  And after this year Kellen Moore will leave, and Boise you would figure would take at least one step back towards their goals of winning a national championship.

15.   Florida [4-1]: how about this for a trifecta – host #3 Alabama, travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU the following week, then for good measure round that out with a trip to the defending national champs Auburn.  Then, for fun, let’s play @ South Carolina, and close the season vs. Florida State.  That is what the Gators face under first year coach Will Muschamp – welcome back to the SEC Will!  The Gators brought in a new coaching staff for the 2011 season, headlined by previously mentioned HC Muschamp, and OC Charlie Weis.  The problem for the offense though has been the play at QB – John Brantley, now a Sr. never morphed into the player the recruiting services and Florida thought he would become when he signed.  Now he is banged up with an ankle sprain and true Fr. Jeff Driskel or Jacoby Brissett will take the reins when the Gators travel to LSU – welcome to the SEC Freshmen.  At least the offense has a great one-two punch at RB in Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey who are both explosive game-changers.  The defense has a lot of fresh faces as well, and has played well thus far in the early part of the season – but really only faced two solid QB’s and teams in Tennessee and Alabama – played well against Tennessee, not so hot vs. Alabama – and keep in mind both of those games were in the Swamp.  It’s a brutal schedule as mentioned for the Gators this season, and clearly their end of season record will not truly represent the kind of talent and team they have – they are definitely a notch below the ultra talented teams of the mid to late 00’s, but we believe they are on the fast track to reaching that status sooner than later.  Expect a 7-5 to 8-4 finish and borderline top 25 ranking at season’s end – but better get the Gators now because in a year or two, it won’t be happening. © The SportsBoss 2011

On the outside looking in: 

16.   Arkansas [4-1]

17.   Texas [4-0]

18.   West Virginia [4-1]

19.   Kansas State [4-0]

20.   Baylor [3-1]