Saturday, October 22, 2011

NCAA Football Top 15 heading into Week 8 action


College Football Top 15 heading into Week 8 games

+ / - spot shows move team made since rankings heading into Wk6 games

  1. LSU [7-0, +1 spot]: the Bayou Tigers have looked impressive in back to back wins over Florida and at Tennessee.  An interesting, developing storyline is how much Les Miles will use Jordan Jefferson at QB, especially if the offense struggles early in a game behind Jarrett Lee.  Some off field issues cropped up this week that allegedly involve drugs, which cannot be a good sign and will leave the Tigers without a few key players for this week’s game vs. Auburn.  Next week they have a bye to prepare for the biggest college football regular season game this season: LSU at Alabama.
  2. Alabama [7-0, +1 spot]: like LSU, Alabama has pounded a pair of SEC foes in the last two weeks, one at home and one on road by combined score of 86-7.  The Tide seems to be firing on all cylinders at this point as Trent Richardson continues to bolster a strong Heisman campaign.  Tomorrow evening they host Tennessee, who will still be without the services of their young signal caller Tyler Bray.  Lastly, not only do we get LSU @ Alabama in two weeks, but both teams will be coming off a bye.  Just doesn’t get any better than that.
  3. Oklahoma [6-0, -2 spots]: how about that, drop two spots in two weeks without losing a game!  Yes, that is how competitive the top of these rankings are – and one poor half, especially against Kansas – will do just that.  One week earlier the Sooners picked up a very impressive win over Texas in the Red River Rivalry – impressive because of the score, not because Texas is a solid team as in my opinion they are highly over-rated if they show up anywhere in any poll.  The Sooners should put up a lot of offensive fireworks Saturday when they host the defensively challenged Red Raiders from Texas Tech, but then a back to back of @ Kansas State and hosting Texas A&M will put OU in the position to jump back up these rankings if they can look good dispatching those opponents.
  4. Wisconsin [6-0, same]: in the good spirit of full disclosure, I am not as sold on the Badgers as seemingly everyone else in the country is.  One big reason is they have yet to leave the friendly confines of Madison – amazingly they have played their first six games of the year at home, facing their first road game of the season this week, at night, in East Lansing.  They have looked good hammering poor teams at home, but with four road games remaining, hosting Penn State during the last week of the regular season, and a potential Big Ten Title game, there is still A LOT of work to be done by the Badgers to reach their ultimate goal of winning the National Championship behind their one year wonder boy Russell Wilson.  All that being said, at this moment in time, they deserve to be ranked #4 – clearly a step below the top 3, and probably just about in the same boat as Clemson and Stanford.
  5. Clemson [7-0, +1 spot]: this truly is a different breed of Clemson Tigers as mentioned in the last rankings – did you see the very nice comeback win in College Park on Saturday night?  Not only were they trailing by 17pts two separate occasions and came back to win by 11, but they also covered the 10pt line many Clemson backers had assumed was a big fat loss.  Gotta love that!    Tajh Boyd is without a doubt the real deal, as is Fr. WR Sammy Watkins and the two form one of the most dynamic duos in the country.  HC Dabo Swinney has the Orange crowd believing big things are possible, but with three road games remaining, including Georgia Tech & South Carolina, along with a likely ACC Title game rematch with one of the Tech’s, there is still A LOT of work to be accomplished before making reservations in New Orleans January 9, 2012.
  6. Stanford [6-0, -1 spot]: the Cardinal is certainly holding up their end of the bargain with an average margin of victory of 34.6ppg, but having not been challenged by a decent squad at this point in the season, even after playing 3 road games, still impacts the rankings.  Tomorrow Stanford will host Washington in a matchup of ranked teams, but I am not really that sold on Washington being able to step up and meet this kind of challenge – Washington debuted in many rankings this week mostly based on a 5-1 record, but they are not, in my opinion, one of the top 25 teams in the country – and it’s not even close.  After Stanford waxes Washington tomorrow, as mentioned in last rankings, Stanford’s season will come down to vs. Oregon, @ USC, and hosting Notre Dame.  Until those games are played their spot in the rankings is all aesthetics.
  7. Oklahoma State [6-0, +1 spot]: OSU has continued their high octane offensive assault on the country, but questions are percolating about a defense that allowed 28 at home to Kansas and 26 on road @ Texas.  Tricky test this Saturday @ Missouri before hosting Baylor and Kansas State in back to back weeks.  Cowboys continue to control their own destiny as far as a birth in National Championship game goes, win out including final week matchup hosting Oklahoma and we’ll see them in New Orleans for the big game.  I just do not see that happening in any way, shape or form.
  8. Arkansas [5-1, +8 spots]: barely on the fringes of being ranked in the last edition, the Razorbacks make some noise rumbling all the way up to #8.  Yes, they only won one game since the last rankings, and even though it was a 24pt SEC win, it wasn’t against one of the powerhouses of 2011.  But nevertheless, wins over Auburn and Texas A&M carry some clout with me as their offense has looked very impressive for most of the season.  They should win their next two @ Ole Miss and @ Vanderbilt before closing with three of last four at home, with LSU being only road game of the bunch (last week of season).  There is plenty of opportunity for Arkansas to make some noise this season, especially with that offense.
  9. Kansas State [6-0, +10 spots]: the Little Apple Wildcats also breakthrough in a large way this week, checking in at #9 after reeling off a half dozen victories to start their season.  It was not looking so promising after a 3pt home win over Eastern Kentucky to start the season, but Bill Snyder’s club has played very solid football since including road wins over Miami and Texas Tech, while they took care of Baylor and Missouri at home.  It will be tough to find many teams in the country with four strong wins like that thus far, sans LSU.  There are still plenty of question marks about this club, especially on offense (in particular the passing game) – but this defense is for real and should keep the Wildcats in most games.  A four game gauntlet is coming up vs. Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma State, vs. Texas A&M, @ Texas – after which we will know a lot more about this club, and how far along Snyder is into rebuilding K-State into a strong Big 12 club once again.  I think it is fairly clear he still has a little ways to go if he wants to bring Kansas State back to challenging the Oklahoma’s or Texas’ of the conference – but he may be ahead of schedule which is a good sign for his supporters.
  10. Oregon [5-1, -1 spot]: since losing their first game in disappointing fashion to LSU, the Ducks have continued to pound their opponents into submission, averaging 33pt wins in going 5-0.  Last week they hosted a ranked Arizona State squad and after a slow start they took care of the Sun Devils relatively easily.  The health of L. James will be critical for this team going forward, especially heading into a 3gm stretch starting on Nov 5 @ Washington, @ Stanford, hosting USC.  But in reality the same story we mentioned for Stanford goes for Oregon – the Nov. 12 matchup in Palo Alto will determine each team’s season.
  11. Boise State [6-0, +3 spots]: from what I have seen, and how good I believe the players on Boise State to be, I feel the #11 spot is more than fair for this version of the Broncos.  There is no question they have picked it up a little bit the last two weeks, smashing two squads on their own home fields by a combined 120-20.  But stacking this team up vs. say a 1 loss Oregon team, or any of the teams rated ahead of them outside Kansas State just would not be good things for this team.  From a pure talent perspective they are down from the last 2-3 years, and it has shown some early in the season.  With literally one game remaining vs. a team that has a heartbeat in TCU, the truth is we will not find out how good this team is until BCS bowl time, likely in the Fiesta Bowl vs. Oklahoma State.
  12. Texas A&M [4-2, unranked]: the Aggies deserve a spot in this edition of the rankings maybe not so much based on their record, but certainly based on the fact they lost two games by a combined 5pts to the teams ranked #7 and #8 in this poll, blowing big leads in both games.  In addition, they have showed nice resolve the last two weeks, picking up a gritty road win over Texas Tech, and handling a Baylor team that many were high on going into that game.  Can the Aggies go on a run like the end of last season, and wind up making noise in the Big 12?  With only 1 conference loss so far it is possible, but with road games @ Oklahoma and @ Kansas State later in the year, it isn’t probable.  A solid close to the season is probably needed for HC Mike Sherman to keep his gig in College Station.
  13. Virginia Tech [6-1, unranked]: there were warning signs flashing everywhere in Blacksburg even before the beat down Clemson laid on the Hokies – VT was not handling the lesser opponents to the degree they usually do: 7pt win at lowly East Carolina, 19pt win @ Sun Belt foe Arkansas State, 20pt win @ Marshall…then when a real team showed up they lost, and lost big.  Since the Clemson game VT has won back to back games over top half ACC teams, beating Miami at home and whipping a decent Wake Forest club in Winston-Salem.  Before traveling to Georgia Tech for a Thursday ESPN game, the Hokies have two breathers in Boston College and Duke.  It is not out of the realm of possibility VT runs the table from here out and finishes the regular season 11-1, with a potential rematch vs. Clemson in the ACC Title game for an Orange Bowl berth.  With a win over Ga Tech, it is actually very likely.
  14. West Virginia [5-1, +4 spots]: by now you should be noticing a trend in many of these teams that make the rankings, and it is their ability to bounce back after one loss and not allow one bad game to turn into multiple losses.  The same can be said for the Mountaineers, who have bounced back from the LSU dismantling to woodshed Bowling Green and Connecticut on home turf.  There is unquestionable talent on this team that makes them very dangerous, especially on offense as Dana Holgersen has delivered the goods from that perspective thus far in his short tenure.  WVU still has four road tilts left, three of which will be challenging @ Rutgers, @ Cincinnati and closing season @ South Florida.  The Backyard Brawl vs. Pittsburgh is also remaining on the slate – so it is a challenging close to the season.  With Big East conference play just getting underway there is a lot to be determined, in what seems like a relatively wide open race that WVU is probably the team to beat.
  15. Michigan State [5-1, unranked]: I am not going to lie, finding a team for this last spot was tough as every candidate in my eyes had a significant red flag – but MSU gets the edge and the nod because it did just beat the #10 team from last edition in relatively convincing fashion last week.  In addition, MSU also boasts one of the strongest defenses in the country, and a solid leader at QB in Kirk Cousins.  The Spartans will need to find a lot more offensive horsepower however if it has dreams of winning the Big Ten, and hosting Wisconsin tomorrow night would be a great place to start.  Even if State found a way to pull off the upset tomorrow, with road trips still remaining to Lincoln, Iowa City and Evanston, it will be very tough to be consistent enough on offense to win the Leaders division over Wisconsin.  But winning tomorrow night would be a good place to start in attempting to reach those goals, and stay in these rankings. ©The SportsBoss 2011

On the outside looking in:

  1. Michigan [6-1]
  2. Arizona State [5-2]
  3. Georgia [5-2]
  4. USC [5-1]
  5. Auburn [5-2]

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