Wednesday, September 28, 2011

NFL Updated Projected Wins & Comparison Against Prior to Season


NFL Updated Projected Wins & Comparison against Prior to Season
Prior to the start of each NFL season I assign each team a power rating which subsequently is adjusted as we progress through the season based upon team performance in the 20 metrics I track by team by game on both offense and defense.  As we all know we can translate spreads on games into estimated percentages each team has at winning a game – so I play out the entire season based upon the power ratings I assign each team, add in home field which leads to a “spread” on each game, which I then translate into a % chance to win the game for each team.  Based upon that exercise I am able to project where I see teams stacking up in the standings – it is not as “calibrated” as I would like, meaning, it really cannot be used to strictly take my figure and use it as an estimated record for each team as it typically underrates the strong teams and overrates the poor teams – the disparity from the best to the worst team was only 7.8 wins before the season, and we know typically that number will be more like 10/11 for any given season.  But this analysis can be used to estimate who has the best chances at making the playoffs, which is what we will present below.
Here is the wins matrix I have worked up:
After Wk3
After Wk2
Before Season
B/(W)
ARI
6.62
7.18
7.27
(0.7)
ATL
8.30
8.88
9.58
(1.3)
BAL
11.27
9.80
10.00
1.3
BUF
8.56
7.91
5.83
2.7
CAR
5.06
4.61
4.02
1.0
CHI
7.48
8.10
7.96
(0.5)
CIN
6.37
7.16
5.89
0.5
CLE
7.39
7.08
7.11
0.3
DAL
8.72
8.19
8.35
0.4
DEN
6.77
7.04
7.04
(0.3)
DET
9.58
9.02
7.50
2.1
GB
12.63
12.18
11.50
1.1
HOU
9.44
9.43
8.65
0.8
IND
6.21
6.74
8.33
(2.1)
JAC
5.10
5.70
5.29
(0.2)
KC
5.69
5.70
7.22
(1.5)
MIA
5.52
5.89
7.35
(1.8)
MIN
5.64
6.10
7.56
(1.9)
NE
9.33
11.03
10.18
(0.8)
NO
11.21
10.96
11.03
0.2
NYG
8.40
7.66
7.87
0.5
NYJ
9.03
9.48
8.93
0.1
OAK
7.37
6.66
6.84
0.5
PHI
10.78
11.54
11.84
(1.1)
PIT
11.16
10.94
11.40
(0.2)
SD
9.61
10.25
10.48
(0.9)
SEA
5.44
4.93
5.57
(0.1)
SF
7.27
5.74
5.81
1.5
STL
5.58
6.90
7.65
(2.1)
TB
7.91
7.45
7.45
0.5
TEN
8.20
7.02
7.08
1.1
WAS
8.39
8.74
7.45
0.9

Explanation by column:
·         After Wk3: the most up-to-date column in this analysis.  This shows where I currently project each team to finish based on wins.  These new win totals were derived from two changing variables when compared to before season – first, I use my updated power ratings thru 3 games: so far I have moved 20 teams one spot based upon their performance thru those 3 games – no teams have moved 2+ spots, and I keep the balance throughout the power ratings meaning those 20 teams are broken into 10 teams up, 10 teams down; two, I have updated the first 3 weeks for actual wins and losses, which will have the biggest impact on the analysis.  To be clearer, let’s say just for example I had projected the Denver Broncos as a ATS “Pick-em” in each of their first 3 games – that essentially gives them, and their opponents a 50% chance of winning each of those games – which, in other words, means I had estimated their win total for first 3wks as 1.5 (3 games x 50% chance in each)…and since they wound up going 1-2, they would have lost 0.5 wins based on actual results.

·         After Wk2: same points I made above, just using data through 2wks instead of 3.

·         Before season: again the same points as above, but no wins/losses were adjusted for games played obviously, it was all based on my preseason power ratings.

·         B/(W) shows the teams that have made the biggest jump in projected wins since before the season.
This analysis is relevant in many ways, not least of which is it takes into consideration a team’s schedule for the remaining part of their season, and includes updated power ratings which are much more solid then what I had before the season.  Being able to digest 3 games worth of data and make the necessary adjustments gives us a much better and clearer picture of how the entire season may unfold.  Taking a look at some specific results, it is not surprising to see BUF & DET leading the way in regards to additional projected wins.  Let’s look at DET a little closer, and their +2.1 wins.  Before the season started I gave DET a rounded total of 1.5 wins for their first three games.  Based upon that piece of information we now know that my +1 level to their power rating after seeing their first 3gms added an approx. 0.6 wins to the remainder of their season.  As you can see there are two pieces that will drive an increase or decrease in wins – the actual results of their first three games, and the adjustment to their power rating thru Wk3.
Based upon the win totals above I also construct a mock standings matrix to project which teams are best positioned, based on performance and future schedule, to make the playoffs. 
Here are the latest standings thru Wk3:

AFC East
Wins
Loss
NFC East
Wins
Loss
NE
9.33
6.67
PHI
10.78
5.22
NYJ
9.03
6.97
DAL
8.72
7.28
BUF
8.56
7.44
NYG
8.40
7.60
MIA
5.52
10.48
WAS
8.39
7.61
AFC North
NFC North
BAL
11.27
4.73
GB
12.63
3.37
PIT
11.16
4.84
DET
9.58
6.42
CLE
7.39
8.61
CHI
7.48
8.52
CIN
6.37
9.63
MIN
5.64
10.37
AFC South
NFC South
HOU
9.44
6.57
NO
11.21
4.79
TEN
8.20
7.81
ATL
8.30
7.70
IND
6.21
9.79
TB
7.91
8.09
JAC
5.10
10.90
CAR
5.06
10.94
AFC West
NFC West
SD
9.61
6.39
SF
7.27
8.73
OAK
7.37
8.63
ARI
6.62
9.39
DEN
6.77
9.23
STL
5.58
10.42
KC
5.69
10.31
SEA
5.44
10.56


Teams highlighted brown are projected division winners, while teams highlighted in green are the two projected Wild Card teams per conference. 
Based upon that data here is what the potential playoff matchups look like as of now:
AFC
NFC
#6 NYJ @ #3 HOU
#6 DAL @ #3 PHI
#5 PIT @ #4 NE
#5 DET @ #4 SF
#1 BAL
#1 GB
#2 SD
#2 NO


Some interesting matchups if these were to hold true, unlikely after only 3wks of action.  But nevertheless it is fun to speculate, and see where your team could potentially play in January.
Hope you find this information useful and fun to read.  I play on updating this analysis each week, and will post an article like this every other week to keep everyone abreast of where their team stands.

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