Friday, September 23, 2011

Turnover Margin and Its Impact on NFL Outcomes



As a professional sports advisor/handicapper I am very aware, as you should be, of the impact turnovers have in a typical NFL game from both a straight up, and ATS perspective.  But how big?  That is the question I will shed some light on in this article, as we breakdown the turnovers impact on SU team records.

Utilizing some data from studies that are already completed, the average turnover is worth 4pts for/against any team.  For ease of analysis we will use that figure, but keep in mind, if performing a more detailed analysis, fumbles are typically much more costly compared to interceptions because they happen closer to the line of scrimmage, which obviously reduces the yardage the recovering team needs to gain to score points.  Our second assumption is the pts scored / pts against margin, and how they relate to final SU records: again using studies I have read, it is suggested the following matrix represents approximate margins per game and their correlation to wins and losses:
·         0: 8-8

·         +/- 1.5pts: 9-7/7-9

·         +/- 3pts: 10-6/6-10

·         +/- 5.5pts: 11-5/5-11

·         +/- 8pts: 12-4/4-12

·         +/- 10.5pts: 13-3/3-13

·         +/- 13pts: 14-2/2-14

·         +/- 16pts: 15-1/1-15

·         +/- 19pts: 16-0/0-16

For example, if a team averaged scoring 22pts per game, and averaged allowing 19pts per game, you would expect their SU record to be 10-6.
Using those two assumptions we can complete an analysis and attempt to project how team’s statistically performed on the field in the absence of turnovers – we essentially are stripping out the advantage a team with a high + turnover margin gained, while boosting up a team that had a – margin [or for business folks, “normalizing” points by removing impact of turnovers].   

2010
TO
*Normalized
2010
New Proj
Wins
Margin
Adv/(Dis)
Margin
Record
Record
Impact
ARI
(9.06)
(1.25)
(7.81)
5-11
4-12
(1)
ATL
7.69
3.50
4.19
13-3
10-6
(3)
BAL
5.50
1.75
3.75
12-4
10-6
(2)
BUF
(8.50)
(4.25)
(4.25)
4-12
6-10
2
CAR
(13.25)
(2.00)
(11.25)
2-14
3-13
1
CHI
3.00
1.00
2.00
11-5
9-7
(2)
CIN
(4.56)
(2.00)
(2.56)
4-12
6-10
2
CLE
(3.63)
(0.25)
(3.38)
5-11
6-10
1
DAL
(2.63)
0.00
(2.63)
6-10
6-10
DEN
(7.94)
(2.25)
(5.69)
4-12
5-11
1
DET
(0.44)
1.00
(1.44)
6-10
7-9
1
GB
9.25
1.50
7.75
10-6
12-4
2
HOU
(2.31)
0.00
(2.31)
6-10
6-10
IND
2.94
(1.00)
3.94
10-6
10-6
JAC
(4.13)
(3.75)
(0.38)
8-8
8-8
KC
2.50
2.25
0.25
10-6
8-8
(2)
MIA
(3.75)
(2.75)
(1.00)
7-9
7-9
MIN
(4.56)
(2.75)
(1.81)
6-10
7-9
1
NE
12.81
7.00
5.81
14-2
11-5
(3)
NO
4.81
(1.50)
6.31
10-6
11-5
1
NYG
2.94
(0.75)
3.69
10-6
10-6
NYJ
3.94
2.25
1.69
11-5
9-7
(2)
OAK
2.44
(0.50)
2.94
8-8
10-6
2
PHI
3.88
2.25
1.63
10-6
9-7
(1)
PIT
8.94
4.00
4.94
12-4
11-5
(1)
SD
3.56
(1.50)
5.06
9-7
11-5
2
SF
(2.56)
(0.25)
(2.31)
7-9
6-10
(1)
SEA
(6.06)
(2.25)
(3.81)
7-9
6-10
(1)
STL
(2.44)
1.25
(3.69)
7-9
6-10
(1)
TB
1.44
2.25
(0.81)
10-6
7-9
(3)
TEN
1.06
(1.00)
2.06
6-10
9-7
3
WAS
(4.69)
(1.50)
(3.19)
6-10
6-10
*Strips out TO's; assumes all teams @ 0


Let’s walk through one team, number by number so you get an understanding of the results, and what takeaways you can take home and use in your own handicapping each week.  Arizona had a 2010 Margin per game of (9.06) as they scored 18.06/gm but allowed 27.13/gm.  So right off the bat we know that is terrible as only Carolina was worse in that department.  Next column entitled “TO Adv/(Dis)” represents the advantage or disadvantage their TO margin provided.  Using Arizona we see (1.25)/gm which states that of the (9.06)/gm they were outscored, (1.25) of that amount was driven by turnovers.  How did we get the (1.25)/gm you ask?  First we take their season long TO Margin number and divide that by 16 so we get a “per game” figure.  Then, back to our first assumption mentioned above, we multiply that number by 4pts as each turnover is worth that much: (5)/16 = (0.3125) x 4 = (1.25pts)/gm.  The next column is 2010 Margin minus TO Adv/(Dis) to get to a “normalized margin” which essentially provides a level TO margin to all teams of zero.  Notice anything obvious about this stat?  Look at the team that has the highest mark - GREEN BAY, the Super Bowl Champs!  Look for the team with the lowest mark - CAROLINA, the team that had the #1 Overall Pick in the Draft!  Now that we have the normalized margin we can move to the record portion of the exercise, utilizing the matrix from page 1, and see where that would put team’s record wise.
The 2010 Record column is actual W/L record from 2010 season, while the New Proj. Record column takes the Normalized Margin column and applies it to said matrix.  The final column, which is key to this analysis, shows an estimated impact of turnovers on their wins from last season [or put another way, is actual record minus our new projected record].
What’s important to keep in mind is TO margin is NOT THE ONLY variable that is driving wins and losses higher – sometimes teams just have a better record than their points scored / points against metric would suggest – this could be driven by some blow-out wins or some blow-out losses, depending on which way the numbers are trending.  But we can certainly identify some nice trends on this data and see a clear turnover impact. 
Teams with red coloring: impacted favorably from TO margin.  When we take a look at these teams, first thing that jumps right off the page is 6 of the 7 made the playoffs – TB being the only team that missed, yet they still won 10 games!  That right there confirms what we already know, turnovers are incredibly critical to success in the NFL as the teams that performed best, and were helped out by favorable turnover margins had successful seasons.
Teams with green coloring: most of these teams it is a story of poor play on the field, combined with the impact of an unfavorable TO margin.  BUF stands out in the sense they played poorly  from a margin perspective last season with only two teams checking in lower than them – but take a look at the impact poor ball security had on them…half of their margin was because they couldn’t hold onto the rock!  Amazing!  BUF is clearly a team to watch this season that could be a nice sleeper if they can cut back on their TO margin – which we expect them to be able to do.  We also can look at GB – just really focus on how well they played last season, even after stripping out the impact of turnovers!  Sometimes it’s hard to believe they almost missed the playoffs all together were it not for some nice things breaking right for them in the last few weeks. 
To summarize we can use this data as a starting point or indicator on projected team success in 2011. Keep in mind, most statistics revert back to the mean: if you got lucky last season and had a better record than your points margin suggested you should, it’s likely to flip in the coming season – and the same can be said for turnover margin.
Based on this analysis here are some bullish teams for 2011: BUF, CIN, GB, OAK, SD, TEN
Based on this analysis here are some bearish teams for 2011: ATL, BAL, CHI, KC, NE, NYJ, TB

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