|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
Current Wins
|
Current SOS
|
||||||||||
|
TEAM
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
RANK
|
||||
|
Minnesota
|
38
|
2
|
44
|
6
|
82
|
1
|
17
|
13
|
0.513
|
6
|
||||
|
Indiana
|
61
|
14
|
24
|
1
|
85
|
2
|
28
|
1
|
0.488
|
20
|
||||
|
Toronto
|
48
|
9
|
45
|
7
|
93
|
3
|
17
|
13
|
0.524
|
3
|
||||
|
Portland
|
30
|
1
|
64
|
15
|
94
|
4
|
27
|
3
|
0.499
|
16
|
||||
|
LA Clippers
|
43
|
5
|
54
|
11
|
97
|
5
|
25
|
6
|
0.511
|
10
|
||||
|
Oklahoma City
|
50
|
10
|
47
|
8
|
97
|
5
|
27
|
3
|
0.513
|
6
|
||||
|
Houston
|
39
|
3
|
62
|
14
|
101
|
7
|
23
|
8
|
0.512
|
9
|
||||
|
San Antonio
|
66
|
16
|
37
|
2
|
103
|
8
|
28
|
1
|
0.514
|
5
|
||||
|
Charlotte
|
69
|
18
|
41
|
3
|
110
|
9
|
15
|
16
|
0.479
|
26
|
||||
|
Denver
|
44
|
6
|
67
|
17
|
111
|
10
|
18
|
12
|
0.509
|
12
|
||||
|
Memphis
|
47
|
8
|
67
|
17
|
114
|
11
|
15
|
16
|
0.523
|
4
|
||||
|
Sacramento
|
45
|
7
|
69
|
19
|
114
|
11
|
11
|
28
|
0.534
|
1
|
||||
|
Chicago
|
74
|
24
|
42
|
4
|
116
|
13
|
15
|
16
|
0.485
|
21
|
||||
|
Golden State
|
73
|
23
|
43
|
5
|
116
|
13
|
24
|
7
|
0.508
|
13
|
||||
|
Miami
|
52
|
12
|
64
|
15
|
116
|
13
|
27
|
3
|
0.478
|
27
|
||||
|
Atlanta
|
70
|
21
|
50
|
9
|
120
|
16
|
19
|
11
|
0.476
|
28
|
||||
|
Washington
|
69
|
18
|
51
|
10
|
120
|
16
|
16
|
15
|
0.474
|
29
|
||||
|
Phoenix
|
53
|
13
|
70
|
20
|
123
|
18
|
21
|
9
|
0.508
|
13
|
||||
|
New Orleans
|
40
|
4
|
86
|
29
|
126
|
19
|
15
|
16
|
0.513
|
6
|
||||
|
Cleveland
|
77
|
25
|
55
|
12
|
132
|
20
|
12
|
25
|
0.481
|
24
|
||||
|
Brooklyn
|
51
|
11
|
82
|
27
|
133
|
21
|
14
|
20
|
0.495
|
18
|
||||
|
Detroit
|
66
|
16
|
71
|
21
|
137
|
22
|
14
|
20
|
0.485
|
21
|
||||
|
Orlando
|
82
|
28
|
56
|
13
|
138
|
23
|
10
|
29
|
0.498
|
17
|
||||
|
Dallas
|
64
|
15
|
77
|
24
|
141
|
24
|
20
|
10
|
0.510
|
11
|
||||
|
New York
|
69
|
18
|
72
|
22
|
141
|
24
|
13
|
23
|
0.494
|
19
|
||||
|
LA Lakers
|
79
|
27
|
78
|
25
|
157
|
26
|
14
|
20
|
0.508
|
13
|
||||
|
Boston
|
77
|
25
|
82
|
27
|
159
|
27
|
13
|
23
|
0.481
|
24
|
||||
|
Philadelphia
|
92
|
30
|
73
|
23
|
165
|
28
|
12
|
25
|
0.485
|
21
|
||||
|
Utah
|
71
|
22
|
95
|
30
|
166
|
29
|
12
|
25
|
0.530
|
2
|
||||
|
Milwaukee
|
90
|
29
|
78
|
25
|
168
|
30
|
7
|
30
|
0.468
|
30
|
||||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points.
Biggest movers
over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking: DEN +7,
SAC +7, WAS +5, BRO +3, DAL (4), NO (4), DET (6), ATL (7)
Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the
win/loss column through yesterday’s games (01/09), here are a few teams to be
both bullish and bearish on:
Bullish (looking
for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested
statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 4th
consecutive week; Chicago for 2nd consecutive week; Denver, Memphis
& Sacramento newly minted bulls.
Bearish (opposite
of Bullish comments above): Phoenix for 4th consecutive week;
Dallas for 2nd consecutive week.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
TEAM
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
Minnesota
|
115.5
|
113.0
|
|
Indiana
|
117.1
|
112.6
|
|
Toronto
|
113.5
|
111.5
|
|
Portland
|
114.8
|
111.3
|
|
LA Clippers
|
114.9
|
110.9
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
114.9
|
110.9
|
|
Houston
|
113.8
|
110.3
|
|
San Antonio
|
113.6
|
110.1
|
|
Charlotte
|
111.1
|
109.1
|
|
Denver
|
111.5
|
109.0
|
|
Memphis
|
110.5
|
108.5
|
|
Sacramento
|
110.5
|
108.5
|
|
Chicago
|
110.8
|
108.3
|
|
Golden State
|
111.8
|
108.3
|
|
Miami
|
112.3
|
108.3
|
|
Atlanta
|
111.2
|
107.7
|
|
Washington
|
109.7
|
107.7
|
|
Phoenix
|
110.8
|
107.3
|
|
New Orleans
|
109.9
|
106.9
|
|
Cleveland
|
108.5
|
106.0
|
|
Brooklyn
|
108.4
|
105.9
|
|
Detroit
|
107.3
|
105.3
|
|
Orlando
|
107.2
|
105.2
|
|
Dallas
|
107.8
|
104.8
|
|
New York
|
106.8
|
104.8
|
|
LA Lakers
|
104.5
|
102.5
|
|
Boston
|
104.3
|
102.3
|
|
Philadelphia
|
103.4
|
101.4
|
|
Utah
|
103.3
|
101.3
|
|
Milwaukee
|
103.0
|
101.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Let’s
examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can
identify some teams to target – since we commenced this analysis two weeks ago
these plays have gone 5-0:
Washington @
Indiana (-9): my power ratings suggest this # should be IND -9.5, right
on target.
Detroit (-2.5) @
Philadelphia: my power ratings suggest this # should be DET -2, right on
target.
Houston (-3) @
Atlanta: my power ratings suggest this # should be ATL -1, so we have
value on the Hawks tonight. Keep in mind
however that according to my performance ratings above the Hawks fell the
furthest of any NBA team in the last week, suggesting they are not playing
solid basketball right now.
Phoenix @ Memphis
(-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MEM -3, right on
target.
Charlotte @
Minnesota (-9.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MIN -6.5
leaving it on the fringe of a value play.
Considering how big this line is, and how well Charlotte rates in my
performance ratings above I will officially NOT call this a value play (also
considering I prefer to have a greater than 3pt variance between line & my
ratings; I also expect this # to drop as the day goes on).
Dallas (-2) @ New
Orleans: my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -5, suggesting a
lot of value on Pelicans here. Also
considering the Mavericks are a bear team, and the fact New Orleans rates
higher than Dallas, is at home, and is listed as an underdog here and we are
backing the Pelicans.
Miami (-5) @
Brooklyn: my power ratings suggest this # should be a Pick so we have a
lot of value on the Nets here. But with
emotional levels being so key when handicapping any nightly sports, and the Heat
are coming off a loss last night, it’s tough to back the underachieving Nets in
this spot.
Chicago (-4) @
Milwaukee: my power ratings suggest this # should be CHI -5, right on
target.
Cleveland @ Utah
(-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be CLE -2.5 so we have
5pts of value on the Cavaliers here.
Keep an eye on injuries in this game before making a final decision.
Orlando @
Sacramento (-7.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be SAC -5.5,
right on target.
Boston @ Golden
State (-11.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be GS -9.5, right
on target.
LA Lakers @ LA
Clippers (-11): my power ratings suggest this # should be LAC -12.5,
right on target.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:
|
Current Wins
|
ATS Wins
|
Projected Wins
|
||||||
|
TEAM
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
17
|
13
|
19
|
8
|
50.42
|
7
|
||
|
Indiana
|
28
|
1
|
23
|
2
|
58.80
|
1
|
||
|
Toronto
|
17
|
13
|
20
|
5
|
48.60
|
10
|
||
|
Portland
|
27
|
3
|
21
|
4
|
48.56
|
11
|
||
|
LA Clippers
|
25
|
6
|
22
|
3
|
53.50
|
4
|
||
|
Oklahoma City
|
27
|
3
|
19
|
8
|
53.03
|
5
|
||
|
Houston
|
23
|
8
|
18
|
13
|
47.04
|
12
|
||
|
San Antonio
|
28
|
1
|
19
|
8
|
58.75
|
2
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
15
|
16
|
20
|
5
|
36.20
|
20
|
||
|
Denver
|
18
|
12
|
16
|
17
|
43.24
|
14
|
||
|
Memphis
|
15
|
16
|
14
|
25
|
42.36
|
15
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
11
|
28
|
13
|
28
|
32.73
|
22
|
||
|
Chicago
|
15
|
16
|
14
|
25
|
33.98
|
21
|
||
|
Golden State
|
24
|
7
|
18
|
13
|
51.89
|
6
|
||
|
Miami
|
27
|
3
|
16
|
17
|
57.92
|
3
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
19
|
11
|
20
|
5
|
41.01
|
17
|
||
|
Washington
|
16
|
15
|
19
|
8
|
40.46
|
18
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
21
|
9
|
24
|
1
|
49.18
|
8
|
||
|
New Orleans
|
15
|
16
|
13
|
28
|
42.19
|
16
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
12
|
25
|
16
|
17
|
30.99
|
24
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
14
|
20
|
16
|
17
|
28.75
|
26
|
||
|
Detroit
|
14
|
20
|
14
|
25
|
40.31
|
19
|
||
|
Orlando
|
10
|
29
|
15
|
22
|
29.38
|
25
|
||
|
Dallas
|
20
|
10
|
19
|
8
|
48.74
|
9
|
||
|
New York
|
13
|
23
|
15
|
22
|
43.90
|
13
|
||
|
LA Lakers
|
14
|
20
|
18
|
13
|
21.61
|
28
|
||
|
Boston
|
13
|
23
|
17
|
16
|
31.13
|
23
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
12
|
25
|
15
|
22
|
22.11
|
27
|
||
|
Utah
|
12
|
25
|
16
|
17
|
20.13
|
29
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
7
|
30
|
12
|
30
|
19.85
|
30
|
||
Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire
matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance
Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top nine teams in performance are
all within the top 8 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Houston – keep an eye on
the Rockets making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play. Last week the only outlier we mentioned were
the Raptors, whom we expected to go on a successful ATS run – they have now won
8 straight games against the #.
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 01/02 the
playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 59-23
#2 LA Clippers 54-28
#3 Oklahoma City 53-29
#4 Golden State 52-30
#5 Minnesota 50-32
#6 Phoenix 49-33
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Portland 49-33
Eastern Conference
#1 Indiana 59-23
#2 Miami 58-34
#3 Toronto 49-33
#4 New York 44-38
#5 Atlanta 41-41
#6 Washington 40-42
#7 Detroit 40-42
#8 Charlotte 36-46
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