|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
|
Current Wins
|
Current SOS
|
||||||||||
|
TEAM
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
RANK
|
||||
|
Minnesota
|
38
|
3
|
45
|
8
|
83
|
1
|
16
|
12
|
0.513
|
9
|
||||
|
Indiana
|
63
|
16
|
25
|
1
|
88
|
2
|
25
|
2
|
0.487
|
20
|
||||
|
Toronto
|
46
|
6
|
44
|
6
|
90
|
3
|
15
|
13
|
0.514
|
8
|
||||
|
LA Clippers
|
40
|
4
|
51
|
10
|
91
|
4
|
22
|
6
|
0.511
|
12
|
||||
|
Portland
|
30
|
1
|
67
|
19
|
97
|
5
|
26
|
1
|
0.511
|
12
|
||||
|
San Antonio
|
66
|
17
|
32
|
2
|
98
|
6
|
25
|
2
|
0.509
|
14
|
||||
|
Oklahoma City
|
52
|
9
|
49
|
9
|
101
|
7
|
25
|
2
|
0.520
|
5
|
||||
|
Houston
|
41
|
5
|
66
|
17
|
107
|
8
|
21
|
7
|
0.519
|
6
|
||||
|
Atlanta
|
66
|
17
|
44
|
6
|
110
|
9
|
18
|
11
|
0.468
|
29
|
||||
|
Charlotte
|
67
|
19
|
43
|
5
|
110
|
9
|
14
|
14
|
0.483
|
23
|
||||
|
Chicago
|
73
|
22
|
42
|
4
|
115
|
11
|
13
|
20
|
0.481
|
24
|
||||
|
Golden State
|
75
|
23
|
41
|
3
|
116
|
12
|
21
|
7
|
0.521
|
4
|
||||
|
Memphis
|
53
|
11
|
66
|
17
|
119
|
13
|
14
|
14
|
0.522
|
3
|
||||
|
Miami
|
57
|
13
|
64
|
15
|
121
|
14
|
24
|
5
|
0.484
|
22
|
||||
|
New Orleans
|
37
|
2
|
85
|
28
|
122
|
15
|
14
|
14
|
0.508
|
15
|
||||
|
Detroit
|
58
|
15
|
65
|
16
|
123
|
16
|
14
|
14
|
0.491
|
18
|
||||
|
Denver
|
51
|
8
|
75
|
24
|
126
|
17
|
14
|
14
|
0.512
|
10
|
||||
|
Phoenix
|
57
|
13
|
70
|
20
|
127
|
18
|
19
|
9
|
0.518
|
7
|
||||
|
Sacramento
|
48
|
7
|
79
|
27
|
127
|
18
|
10
|
27
|
0.535
|
1
|
||||
|
Dallas
|
56
|
12
|
76
|
25
|
132
|
20
|
19
|
9
|
0.507
|
16
|
||||
|
Washington
|
78
|
25
|
56
|
11
|
134
|
21
|
14
|
14
|
0.474
|
27
|
||||
|
Cleveland
|
78
|
25
|
60
|
13
|
138
|
22
|
11
|
23
|
0.480
|
26
|
||||
|
Orlando
|
84
|
28
|
57
|
12
|
141
|
23
|
10
|
27
|
0.487
|
20
|
||||
|
Brooklyn
|
52
|
9
|
90
|
29
|
142
|
24
|
11
|
23
|
0.495
|
17
|
||||
|
New York
|
71
|
20
|
74
|
22
|
145
|
25
|
10
|
27
|
0.488
|
19
|
||||
|
Boston
|
77
|
24
|
71
|
21
|
148
|
26
|
13
|
20
|
0.471
|
28
|
||||
|
Philadelphia
|
88
|
30
|
62
|
14
|
150
|
27
|
11
|
23
|
0.481
|
24
|
||||
|
LA Lakers
|
80
|
27
|
74
|
22
|
154
|
28
|
13
|
20
|
0.512
|
10
|
||||
|
Milwaukee
|
85
|
29
|
76
|
25
|
161
|
29
|
7
|
30
|
0.461
|
30
|
||||
|
Utah
|
71
|
20
|
94
|
30
|
165
|
30
|
11
|
23
|
0.528
|
2
|
||||
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL
ratings that are best when higher. We
can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or
under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could
produce more or less points.
Biggest movers
over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking: GS +7, TOR
+5, MEM +5, CHI +4, ATL +3, LAC +3, SA (3), MIA (3), OKC (4), CHA (4), DEN (5),
DET (6), SAC (6), WAS (6)
Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the
win/loss column through yesterday’s games (12/26), here are a few teams to be
both bullish and bearish on:
Bullish (looking
for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested
statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 3RD consecutive
week. Atlanta & Chicago newly minted
bulls, no pun intended.
Bearish (opposite
of Bullish comments above): Phoenix for 3rd consecutive week;
Dallas newly minted bear.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance
Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
|
TEAM
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
Minnesota
|
116.0
|
113.0
|
|
Indiana
|
116.8
|
112.3
|
|
Toronto
|
114.0
|
112.0
|
|
LA Clippers
|
115.8
|
111.8
|
|
Portland
|
115.0
|
111.0
|
|
San Antonio
|
114.3
|
110.8
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
114.4
|
110.4
|
|
Houston
|
113.0
|
109.5
|
|
Atlanta
|
112.5
|
109.0
|
|
Charlotte
|
111.0
|
109.0
|
|
Chicago
|
110.8
|
108.3
|
|
Golden State
|
111.7
|
108.2
|
|
Memphis
|
109.7
|
107.7
|
|
Miami
|
111.4
|
107.4
|
|
New Orleans
|
110.3
|
107.3
|
|
Detroit
|
109.1
|
107.1
|
|
Denver
|
108.7
|
106.7
|
|
Phoenix
|
109.6
|
106.6
|
|
Sacramento
|
108.6
|
106.6
|
|
Dallas
|
109.3
|
105.8
|
|
Washington
|
108.0
|
105.5
|
|
Cleveland
|
107.5
|
105.0
|
|
Orlando
|
106.5
|
104.5
|
|
Brooklyn
|
106.4
|
104.4
|
|
New York
|
105.9
|
103.9
|
|
Boston
|
105.5
|
103.5
|
|
Philadelphia
|
105.2
|
103.2
|
|
LA Lakers
|
104.6
|
102.6
|
|
Milwaukee
|
103.6
|
101.6
|
|
Utah
|
103.0
|
101.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Let’s
examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can
identify some teams to target – last week was first time we did this exercise
all season and cashed going 2-0 with nice home barking dog winners on Charlotte
& Sacramento:
Toronto @
Washington (-3): my power ratings suggest this # should be TOR -4 so
from a value perspective we see some on the Raptors.
Golden State (-3)
@ Atlanta: my power ratings suggest this # should be ATL -4 so we see
value on the Hawks. Considering the
Warriors are also coming off a big win over the Heat last night the Hawks
certainly have an ATS & emotional level advantage in this game.
New Orleans (-3.5)
@ Boston: my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -2, right on
target.
New York @ Houston
(-11.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be HOU -8 which would
equal small value on the Rockets since the variance is greater than 1
possession.
LA Clippers (-2.5)
@ Dallas: my power ratings suggest this # should be LAC -2.5, right on
target.
Memphis @ Denver
(-4): my power ratings suggest this # should be DEN -1, close to the
target to not equal a value play.
However, when considering there is a 3pt variance in the lines, and the
fact Memphis is quickly improving while Denver is quickly slipping per the
Performance Ratings above there is value on the Grizzlies this evening.
Utah @ LA Lakers
(-3.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be LAL -3.5, right on
target.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:
|
Current Wins
|
ATS Wins
|
Projected Wins
|
||||||
|
TEAM
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
16
|
12
|
18
|
6
|
48.96
|
9
|
||
|
Indiana
|
25
|
2
|
22
|
1
|
58.48
|
2
|
||
|
Toronto
|
15
|
13
|
16
|
14
|
47.77
|
10
|
||
|
LA Clippers
|
22
|
6
|
20
|
3
|
55.48
|
4
|
||
|
Portland
|
26
|
1
|
20
|
3
|
49.91
|
7
|
||
|
San Antonio
|
25
|
2
|
17
|
9
|
57.80
|
3
|
||
|
Oklahoma City
|
25
|
2
|
17
|
9
|
54.97
|
5
|
||
|
Houston
|
21
|
7
|
17
|
9
|
45.72
|
13
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
18
|
11
|
18
|
6
|
42.38
|
15
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
14
|
14
|
19
|
5
|
36.22
|
20
|
||
|
Chicago
|
13
|
20
|
12
|
26
|
32.75
|
22
|
||
|
Golden State
|
21
|
7
|
16
|
14
|
51.47
|
6
|
||
|
Memphis
|
14
|
14
|
11
|
29
|
41.39
|
16
|
||
|
Miami
|
24
|
5
|
14
|
19
|
58.55
|
1
|
||
|
New Orleans
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
23
|
46.33
|
12
|
||
|
Detroit
|
14
|
14
|
14
|
19
|
44.34
|
14
|
||
|
Denver
|
14
|
14
|
13
|
23
|
37.06
|
19
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
19
|
9
|
22
|
1
|
47.70
|
11
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
10
|
27
|
12
|
26
|
30.21
|
24
|
||
|
Dallas
|
19
|
9
|
18
|
6
|
49.57
|
8
|
||
|
Washington
|
14
|
14
|
17
|
9
|
40.54
|
18
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
11
|
23
|
14
|
19
|
29.41
|
25
|
||
|
Orlando
|
10
|
27
|
15
|
16
|
32.06
|
23
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
11
|
23
|
13
|
23
|
26.25
|
26
|
||
|
New York
|
10
|
27
|
11
|
29
|
40.75
|
17
|
||
|
Boston
|
13
|
20
|
15
|
16
|
34.29
|
21
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
11
|
23
|
14
|
19
|
24.69
|
27
|
||
|
LA Lakers
|
13
|
20
|
17
|
9
|
23.20
|
28
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
7
|
30
|
12
|
26
|
21.77
|
29
|
||
|
Utah
|
11
|
23
|
15
|
16
|
19.54
|
30
|
||
Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire
matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance
Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top ten teams in performance are
all within the top 9 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Toronto – keep an eye on
the Raptors making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play, with
tonight’s game that I mentioned above further supported by this data.
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins). Based on these projections as of 01/02 the
playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 58-24
#2 LA Clippers 55-27
#3 Oklahoma City 55-27
#4 Golden State 51-31
#5 Portland 50-32
#6 Dallas 50-32
#7 Minnesota 49-33
#8 Phoenix 48-34
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 59-23
#2 Indiana 58-34
#3 Toronto 48-34
#4 Detroit 44-38
#5 Atlanta 42-40
#6 New York 41-41
#7 Washington 41-41
#8 Charlotte 36-46
One question I have been asked numerous times is how can a
team rate highly in the power ratings, have played a stronger schedule than
another team, yet be projected to win less games than that team come mid April’s
end to the regular season. The answer is
the projected wins are based on a regression formula that properly “weights”
each of the statistics according to their impact on wins – effective FG % is by
far the most critical aspect of this formula.
On the other hand the Performance Ratings weight all the statistics I
use evenly, rating each team from #1-30 in the NBA in each stat, then
aggregating (which is why LOWER is better than HIGHER). So for example Minnesota is currently the #1
team in the Performance Ratings but just 9th in projected wins
because their worst category on both sides of the ball is Effective FG %. But of note with that statistic is its hyper
sensitive to small changes, meaning because its impact is so great a small
improvement in those figures can greatly impact a team’s performance &
projected win total, and vice-versa.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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