NFL Update after
Week 15
Each team
has two games left in the 2011 season – and here is how the playoffs are
setting up:
·
NFC: GB will lock up home-field either this week
or next. NO & SF are battling it out
for the #2 seed and a bye in the Wild Card round – currently SF has the edge
with an 8-2 conference record vs. NO’s 7-3.
SF closes with two road divisional contests, while NO hosts two
divisions rivals – so we could potentially see a flip flop there. The NFC East is still up for grabs with three
teams still alive; most likely scenario still appears DAL wins it as they
currently hold a 1gm lead. Barring a
complete collapse by either, ATL & DET appear to be the WC teams; keep in
mind ATL won @ DET earlier in the season and would hold that tie-breaker if
they wind up tied which will be enormous and the difference between playing @
SF/NO or @ NFC East winner; I currently project DET with 0.7 more wins so
because it is 0.5 or higher I give them the #5 seed as of now. If seeds hold to what is currently projected
below we would see a pair of regular season rematches in the WC round – DET won
@ DAL earlier in the season on a frantic late game comeback, while ATL and NO
are divisional rivals who are set to play for the second time this season this
week in NO – the Saints won by 3 @ ATL in Week 10.
·
AFC: NE was the big winner last week taking care
of business in Denver, while the next 3 teams in the AFC all lost. The Patriots now control their destiny for
the #1 seed and home-field advantage – and with a pair of home divisional games
to close out the season vs. MIA then BUF that looks to be the likely
scenario. BAL & PIT both let
opportunities pass this week losing tough road games; thus the winner of the AFC
North is still undecided. Keep in mind
BAL swept the season series from PIT – but PIT has the much easier closing
schedule. DEN still controls their
destiny in the AFC West even with a loss to NE last week as OAK blew a 13pt 4th
quarter lead to DET and remains 1gm back – now tied with SD who put together another
convincing win, hammering BAL on SNF.
OAK hosts SD last week of the season which will eliminate one from a
chance at winning the division. If DEN
can win at home vs. KC in Week 17, and SD beats OAK that same day, DEN is
assured of winning the division no matter what happens in any games this
week. The final WC spot looks like it
will come down to CIN & NYJ thanks to crushing losses from the
aforementioned Raiders, and TEN giving the Colts their first win of the season –
CIN closes the season with a pair of home games, while the Jets have a tough
close facing the Giants then travelling to a hot Miami squad. Right now using this model the NYJ wind up
with 0.08 more wins than CIN and take the last spot – which is obviously an
extremely small projected margin. If
these projections hold true they would set up a rematch of a regular season
game between the Jets and Ravens that BAL won convincingly on SNF early in the
season, while DEN and PIT would renew their playoff rivalry having played each
other 6 prior times in January including twice in the AFC Championship Game in
the last 13 years.
There were
no changes to projected playoff teams from last week’s edition. If you go back to these projections following
games in Week 3 we only have two changes to projected teams: PHI is out as a WC
in NFC and ATL is in as a WC in NFC, while in the AFC SD is out as AFC West
champs and DEN is in as AFC West champs.
Going back to these projections following Week 10 there is only one
change with CHI being out as an NFC WC entrant, and ATL in that spot. Not too bad, look how accurate these
projections were, even all the way back to September!
Seeding wise
there were a few changes: in the AFC, the top 3 seeds were changed as NE went
from #3 to #1, HOU dropped from #1 to #2, and BAL fell from #2 to #3 – all
those moves were driven by game results as NE won, while HOU & BAL both
lost. In the NFC technically there were
no changes – last version (as footnoted) I was not adjusting for tie-breakers
as that can get very complex – but now that were are down to the last couple
games it is a little easier process so we flipped NO & SF based on
conference records. But in reality there
were no moves from last week.
These standings
are solely based on projected wins, and do not take into consideration
tie-breakers (other than BAL/PIT for the NFC North division title, and NO/SF
for the #2 seed in the NFC) which will obviously occur especially when we are
talking < 1 win variance within these projections.
Here are the latest projected standings:
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
12
|
4
|
DAL
|
9
|
7
|
|
|
NYJ
|
9
|
7
|
NYG
|
8
|
8
|
|
|
MIA
|
6
|
10
|
PHI
|
7
|
9
|
|
|
BUF
|
6
|
10
|
WAS
|
6
|
10
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|
||||
|
BAL
|
12
|
4
|
GB
|
14
|
2
|
|
|
PIT
|
12
|
4
|
DET
|
10
|
6
|
|
|
CIN
|
9
|
7
|
CHI
|
8
|
8
|
|
|
CLE
|
4
|
12
|
MIN
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|
||||
|
HOU
|
12
|
4
|
NO
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
TEN
|
8
|
8
|
ATL
|
9
|
7
|
|
|
JAC
|
5
|
11
|
CAR
|
6
|
10
|
|
|
IND
|
1
|
15
|
TB
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|
||||
|
DEN
|
9
|
7
|
SF
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
OAK
|
8
|
8
|
SEA
|
8
|
8
|
|
|
SD
|
8
|
8
|
ARI
|
8
|
8
|
|
|
KC
|
7
|
9
|
STL
|
2
|
14
|
|
|
|
|
|||||
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|
||||
|
#6 NYJ @ #3 BAL
|
#6 ATL @ #3 NO
|
|
||||
|
#5 PIT @ #4 DEN
|
#5 DET @ #4 DAL
|
|
||||
|
|
|
|||||
|
#1 NE
|
#1 GB
|
|
||||
|
#2 HOU
|
|
|
|
#2 SF
|
|
|
I also did another view this week by actually projecting who
I thought would win each game the last two weeks instead of using the power
ratings/decimal system the usual projections entail. Upon completion of that analysis, here are
the changes to the standings above:
·
NFC: NO picked up the #2 seed with SF falling to
#3 as I gave SF a loss @ SEA this week.
In addition, ATL & DET flipped spots with the Falcons moving up to
the #5 seed as I had both teams going 1-1 finishing with identical 9-7 records
which would give ATL the tie-breaker in that spot.
·
AFC: PIT won the AFC North and achieved the #3
seed after winning out combined with BAL losing @ CIN in Week 17. That move would obviously also include BAL
sliding down to the #5 seed and a trip to DEN.
Lastly, CIN grabs the #6 and final spot in the AFC after going 2-0 to
close the season, while the Jets lose the final week in Miami and give up their
spot.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2011
