Tuesday, December 13, 2011

NFL Best Statistical Performances thru Week 14


Best Statistical Performances of 2011 NFL season thru Week 14

Today we will look at the 10 best ONE GAME statistical performances per my NFL Model thru Week 14.  To refresh your memory on how team performance is rated on a weekly basis, 16 stats on both offense and defense per team per game are tracked; in each of those 16 stats team’s can achieve a maximum 5 points for a top 20% performance based on the history of those stats over the last decade (for example, when laying out every game over the last 10 years from least to most yards rushing per game, the top 20% of those games had yards rushing of 168 or more; hence if a team reaches that mark they receive a 5 grade for that stat that game; and I have done that for each of the 16 stats); with that being said obviously teams can score a max 80pts on offense (the 16 statistical categories tracked times the maximum 5pts per stat), 80pts on defense for a total score of 160 (which would be the “perfect game” and I have not had that at all in 5 years and do not expect to see a team score that in one game).  

To further give you a feel for this, MIA & NYG are currently sitting tied for 16th place in these performance ratings with scores of 80.04; HOU sits at the top at 100.85 (which would be the highest seen for a season over the 5 years this has been tracked), while IND brings up the rear at 54.50 (and this would actually be the worst, by far, of any team in the last 5 years as well).  

Today we are going to look at the 10 best ONE GAME performance scores thru Week 14 (keeping in mind the worst ONE GAME team performances are the opponent in these games because every game is scored based on 160 TOTAL POINTS – so whatever is left-over from the scores below is what the opponent rated in these games).  

Team / Total Rating [Offense Rating / Defense Rating] / Opponent

1.       Houston Texans 144 [76/68] @ Tennessee Titans: in what appeared to be a key AFC South matchup in Week 7, HOU dominated the Titans 41-7 as 3pt underdogs (the only underdog on the top ten list), and cemented themselves as the team to beat in the AFC South.  Their offense almost generated a perfect score (they lost 1pt in 4 categories that day: yards per rush, passing TD’s, conversion %, turnover margin) led by 222 yards rushing, 29 first downs, 12.9 yards per pass attempt, 78% completions, 296 yards passing, a perfect QB rating and holding the ball for 38 minutes.  Defensively they held Tennessee to under 150 yards of total offense including 3.1 yards per play.
2.       San Francisco Forty Niners 130 [69/61] vs. Tampa Bay Bucs: the Niners pasted TB 48-3 as 2.5pt favorites.  On this day SF rushed for 213 yards, picked up 28 first downs, amassed 7.2 yards per play (their highest mark on season), 9.3 yards per pass attempt and a near perfect QB rating of 139.3.  Defensively they held the Bucs to 86 yards rushing, 41.5 QB rating, and 4.5 yards per play.
3.       Buffalo Bills 129 [56/73] vs. Washington Redskins: BUF came out of their bye week 4-2 and dominated as mere 4pt favorites pitching a 23-0 shutout in Toronto.  Led by a sack margin of +7 (they had 9 sacks on the day), their defense held Washington to 26 yards rushing, 10 first downs (including none rushing), 3.6 yards per pass attempt, 3.3 yards per play (their best defensive effort of season), and only allowed WAS 25 minutes with the ball.  Offensively Fitzpatrick played his 2nd best game of the season completing 78% of his passes, 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and a QB Rating of 112.
4.       Houston Texans 129 [66/63] @ Tampa Bay Bucs: in Week 10 right before their bye week the Texans put a beat down on the Bucs 37-9 as 3.5pt favorites.  HOU was +4 in the turnover margin, rushed for 185 yards, passed for 235 yards on only 15 attempts with Schaub having a perfect passer rating, and they held the ball for 35 minutes.  Their pass defense was dominant on this day allowing only 3.6 yards per attempt, 43% completions and 21% conversions.
5.       Baltimore Ravens 128 [57/71] vs. Indianapolis Colts: yesterday the Ravens dominated the hapless Colts 24-10 though a late TD gave the 16.5pt underdog Colts the cover.  This game was all about defense, as even without their leader Ray Lewis BAL stuffed IND everywhere allowing 167 yards of total offense, 12 first downs, 2.9 yards per pass attempt, under 50% completions, 4 sacks and allowed IND to only possess the ball 24 minutes.
6.       Philadelphia Eagles 126 [70/56] vs. Dallas Cowboys: as Andy Reid teams do every year the Birds came out of their bye week flying higher than ever in 2011, pummeling the Cowboys on SNF 34-7 as 3pt favorites.  On this night not much didn’t go perfectly for the Eagles offensively as they rushed for a season high 239 yards, picked up 15 first downs rushing, 31 first downs total while Michael Vick also had his best day of the season thru the air throwing for 8.0 yards per attempt, 75% completions, 122 QB Rating while picking up 62% of their conversions and possessing the ball for a whopping 42 minutes.
7.       Atlanta Falcons 125 [61/64] @ Indianapolis Colts: also coming off their bye week the Falcons played their best game of the season in Wk9 hammering the Colts on the road 31-7 as 6.5pt favorites.  This was a balanced effort between the offense and defense.  Offensively the team had their second best rushing effort of the season totaling 163 yards while picking up 11 first downs rushing; passing wise Ryan had his second best day of the season with a QB Rating of 120 including passing for 269 yards on 10.8 yards per pass attempt and 3 TD’s.  Defensively the Falcons held the Colts to under 200 yards of total offense and the Colts only possessed the ball for 22 minutes.
8.       New Orleans Saints 124 [77/47] vs. Indianapolis Colts: the SNF Massacre in Wk7 is what some have called this 62-7 beating the Saints laid to the Colts on National TV as only 13.5pt favorites.  The Saints missed a perfect offensive game by one category: sacks given up as IND got to Brees twice, two more than needed for a perfect score.  The Saints rushed for 236 yards, had a whopping 36 first downs, 89% completions, 5 TD passes, perfect QB Rating, 7.4 yards per play, 75% conversions and held the ball for 38 minutes.  It just doesn’t get much better than that.
9.       San Francisco Forty Niners 123 [53/71] vs. St Louis Rams: the second shut-out on the list is the Niners 26-0 win over the hapless Rams in Week 13 as 14pt favorites.  While the Niners were far from perfect on offense this day, the defense more than held their own allowing 157 yards of total offense, zero first downs rushing, 3.2 yards per play, 4 sacks and only allowing the Rams to only hold the ball for 23 minutes and change.  SF set season bests in many defensive stats including yards per rush, yards rushing, first downs rushing, first downs total, completions, yards passing and yards per play.
10.   Pittsburgh Steelers 121 [55/66] vs. Seattle Seahawks: the Steelers opened the home slate of their 2011 schedule in style, bouncing back from a bad loss at Baltimore in Week One to throttle the Seahawks 24-0 as 13.5pt favorites.  PIT set season highs defensively in multiple stats in this one, namely yards per rush, yards rushing, first downs rushing, first downs total, sacks, conversions and conversion %.  Combine all that with Big Ben having one of his better days thru the air and you have the 10th best one game performance so far in 2011.


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2011

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