Our second quarterly installment of the NFL SBPI (SportsBoss
Power Index) comes after Week Nine, when all but eight teams have played
exactly 8 games this season (ATL, CLE, IND, NO, NYG, PIT, SD, SF have all
played 9 games).
SBPI: max grade 160: 80 on offense & 80 on defense,
which can be achieved by receiving a perfect grade of “5” in each of the 16 different
statistics tracked on both sides of the ball:
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
6
|
ARI
|
54.5
|
2
|
44.5
|
4
|
99.0
|
1
|
31
|
3
|
||||
|
8
|
NE
|
55.4
|
1
|
40.6
|
7
|
96.0
|
2
|
26
|
7
|
||||
|
8
|
CIN
|
53.2
|
3
|
38.9
|
11
|
92.1
|
3
|
17
|
4
|
||||
|
5
|
NYJ
|
46.9
|
8
|
44.7
|
3
|
91.6
|
4
|
29
|
7
|
||||
|
6
|
ATL
|
52.1
|
4
|
38.5
|
12
|
90.6
|
5
|
32
|
0
|
||||
|
4
|
SEA
|
45.4
|
10
|
45.1
|
2
|
90.4
|
6
|
19
|
(1)
|
||||
|
8
|
CAR
|
44.1
|
14
|
44.5
|
4
|
88.6
|
7
|
20
|
6
|
||||
|
7
|
DEN
|
36.1
|
28
|
48.7
|
1
|
84.8
|
8
|
24
|
3
|
||||
|
3
|
KC
|
44.1
|
14
|
40.0
|
9
|
84.1
|
9
|
12
|
3
|
||||
|
4
|
BUF
|
45.9
|
9
|
37.8
|
14
|
83.6
|
10
|
22
|
1
|
||||
|
6
|
GB
|
45.4
|
10
|
36.4
|
17
|
81.8
|
11
|
7
|
6
|
||||
|
6
|
MIN
|
41.6
|
21
|
40.3
|
8
|
81.8
|
11
|
29
|
0
|
||||
|
4
|
STL
|
39.0
|
25
|
42.4
|
6
|
81.4
|
13
|
15
|
4
|
||||
|
2
|
SD
|
48.2
|
6
|
33.1
|
23
|
81.3
|
14
|
27
|
(5)
|
||||
|
4
|
OAK
|
47.8
|
7
|
33.2
|
22
|
80.9
|
15
|
14
|
1
|
||||
|
4
|
PHI
|
42.4
|
18
|
38.5
|
12
|
80.9
|
15
|
13
|
5
|
||||
|
5
|
PIT
|
44.3
|
13
|
36.5
|
16
|
80.8
|
17
|
9
|
4
|
||||
|
2
|
DAL
|
44.6
|
12
|
35.4
|
18
|
80.0
|
18
|
5
|
(9)
|
||||
|
4
|
NO
|
50.3
|
5
|
28.5
|
32
|
78.8
|
19
|
19
|
(2)
|
||||
|
2
|
TEN
|
38.6
|
26
|
39.4
|
10
|
78.1
|
20
|
25
|
(6)
|
||||
|
3
|
HOU
|
39.7
|
24
|
37.4
|
15
|
77.1
|
21
|
21
|
(2)
|
||||
|
2
|
BAL
|
42.1
|
19
|
34.7
|
20
|
76.8
|
22
|
10
|
(7)
|
||||
|
3
|
TB
|
43.6
|
16
|
32.2
|
26
|
75.8
|
23
|
23
|
1
|
||||
|
4
|
IND
|
40.3
|
23
|
34.6
|
21
|
74.9
|
24
|
11
|
(7)
|
||||
|
3
|
CHI
|
42.1
|
20
|
32.6
|
25
|
74.6
|
25
|
3
|
(1)
|
||||
|
3
|
MIA
|
41.1
|
22
|
32.7
|
24
|
73.8
|
26
|
16
|
(4)
|
||||
|
5
|
NYG
|
43.3
|
17
|
29.1
|
30
|
72.3
|
27
|
30
|
12
|
||||
|
2
|
JAC
|
35.8
|
29
|
35.3
|
19
|
71.0
|
28
|
9
|
(7)
|
||||
|
3
|
WAS
|
38.0
|
27
|
29.6
|
28
|
67.6
|
29
|
4
|
(2)
|
||||
|
2
|
CLE
|
35.4
|
30
|
29.6
|
29
|
65.0
|
30
|
6
|
(4)
|
||||
|
3
|
SF
|
33.1
|
32
|
30.4
|
27
|
63.4
|
31
|
3
|
(1)
|
||||
|
1
|
DET
|
33.6
|
31
|
28.6
|
31
|
62.2
|
32
|
1
|
(9)
|
||||
·
The Arizona Cardinals have hung onto the top
spot for the 2nd report in a row, though their average game grade
score has fallen from 101.1 to a still respectable 99.0. Last season my second posting of the SBPI
came after Week 8 and the top team was the Denver Broncos, who had a grade of 99.1
(almost identical, even the specific offense & defense grades; however
Denver had faced the 2nd toughest blended SOS last year while
Arizona this year has faced the 2nd EASIEST blended SOS). Last year the Broncos were the only team with
an average game grade above 92.9; this year New England also fits that
category.
·
We all hear how important turnover margin is
(TOM) but check the far right column above – only ONE team in the top 13 of the
SBPI has a negative TOM (Seattle at just -1) while just TWO of the bottom 15 of
the SBPI has a positive TOM. Note the NY
Giants, checking in at #27 in the SBPI, but with FIVE wins – more than any team
in the bottom 15 – why? Leading the
league in TOM helps you win games despite not playing well.
·
Last year’s two Super Bowl teams Seattle &
New England were ranked 8th & 14th respectively at
this point in 2014 – hello a Denver vs. Philadelphia Super Bowl 50? Unlikely for sure; the point was more to show
how things can change, and pacing yourself to peak at the right time in January
is critical.
New to my NFL reporting this is what the standings would
look like if teams won or lost games solely based on how they performed in my
ratings (with 160 grade being perfect a grade of 80 is a “tie” thus anything
above that equals a win while below that would be a loss):
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
Tie
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
Tie
|
|
|
NYJ
|
6
|
2
|
0
|
DAL
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
NE
|
5
|
3
|
0
|
NYG
|
4
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
BUF
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
WAS
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
MIA
|
2
|
6
|
0
|
PHI
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||||
|
CIN
|
7
|
1
|
0
|
GB
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
PIT
|
6
|
3
|
0
|
MIN
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
|
|
BAL
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
CHI
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
|
|
CLE
|
1
|
7
|
1
|
DET
|
1
|
7
|
0
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||||
|
HOU
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
CAR
|
7
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
TEN
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
ATL
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
JAC
|
3
|
5
|
0
|
TB
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
IND
|
3
|
6
|
0
|
NO
|
4
|
4
|
1
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||||
|
KC
|
5
|
3
|
0
|
ARI
|
7
|
1
|
0
|
|
|
SD
|
5
|
3
|
1
|
STL
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
DEN
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
SEA
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
OAK
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
SF
|
2
|
7
|
0
|
|
We can compare those standings to the actual standings and
see which teams are perhaps enjoying “game luck” more than others, or vice
versa.
Next up let’s examine the divisional ratings:
|
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
|
AE
|
42
|
1
|
|
AW
|
46
|
2
|
|
NW
|
51
|
3
|
|
NS
|
54
|
4
|
|
AN
|
72
|
5
|
|
NN
|
79
|
6
|
|
NE
|
89
|
7
|
|
AS
|
93
|
8
|
The AFC East remains the strongest division in football
although other divisions, namely the AFC West is making a run at that
distinction. The AFC West’s four teams
rank 8, 9, 14 & 15 as the Raiders strong play this season has elevated that
division once again – remember just a few years ago 3 of the 4 teams in that
division made the playoffs. The AFC
South remains the weakest, as it has been for years, while the NFC East is
struggling this season with injuries and poor play.
Next up,
here are my projected standings after Wk9. As a reminder, this
process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for
each team. For more information on this topic and process, and to
see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read my blog entry
from July 31, 2012:
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
13.90
|
2.10
|
NYG
|
8.11
|
7.89
|
|
|
NYJ
|
9.06
|
6.95
|
PHI
|
8.11
|
7.89
|
|
|
BUF
|
7.80
|
8.20
|
WAS
|
6.59
|
9.41
|
|
|
MIA
|
6.54
|
9.46
|
DAL
|
5.95
|
10.05
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
12.44
|
3.56
|
GB
|
10.91
|
5.09
|
|
|
PIT
|
7.29
|
8.71
|
MIN
|
9.78
|
6.22
|
|
|
BAL
|
6.00
|
10.00
|
CHI
|
6.78
|
9.22
|
|
|
CLE
|
4.86
|
11.14
|
DET
|
4.18
|
11.82
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
7.84
|
8.17
|
CAR
|
12.44
|
3.56
|
|
|
HOU
|
6.47
|
9.53
|
ATL
|
9.44
|
6.56
|
|
|
TEN
|
5.56
|
10.44
|
NO
|
7.80
|
8.20
|
|
|
JAC
|
5.42
|
10.58
|
TB
|
6.49
|
9.51
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
11.31
|
4.69
|
ARI
|
11.28
|
4.72
|
|
|
OAK
|
8.02
|
7.98
|
SEA
|
9.48
|
6.53
|
|
|
KC
|
7.16
|
8.84
|
STL
|
8.02
|
7.98
|
|
|
SD
|
5.10
|
10.90
|
SF
|
5.88
|
10.12
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 OAK @ #3 DEN
|
#6 SEA @ #3 GB
|
|||||
|
#5 NYJ @ #4 IND
|
#5 MIN @ #4 NYG
|
|||||
|
#1 NE
|
#1 CAR
|
|||||
|
#2 CIN
|
#2 ARI
|
|||||
Teams highlighted in green are division winners while the
four yellow teams are projected to be Wild Card squads. In last year’s first projection posted here
on my blog after Wk5 of action this exercise nailed 5 of 6 playoff teams in the
AFC & NFC (so 10 of the 12 playoff teams in total); our mid season
projections last year also hit the same 10 of 12 playoff teams.
Last analysis
for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power
rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one
measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of
this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two
ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams,
not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in
my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:
|
Overall
|
|
|
NE
|
1
|
|
SEA
|
2
|
|
ARI
|
3
|
|
CIN
|
4
|
|
GB
|
5
|
|
CAR
|
6
|
|
DEN
|
7
|
|
PIT
|
8
|
|
PHI
|
9
|
|
ATL
|
9
|
|
IND
|
11
|
|
NYJ
|
12
|
|
OAK
|
13
|
|
MIN
|
13
|
|
KC
|
15
|
|
STL
|
15
|
|
DAL
|
17
|
|
BUF
|
18
|
|
NO
|
19
|
|
BAL
|
19
|
|
NYG
|
21
|
|
WAS
|
22
|
|
SD
|
23
|
|
CHI
|
23
|
|
HOU
|
25
|
|
MIA
|
26
|
|
TEN
|
27
|
|
TB
|
28
|
|
SF
|
29
|
|
DET
|
29
|
|
JAC
|
31
|
|
CLE
|
32
|
*NOTE: for a team like Pittsburgh I make manual adjustments
to their overall power rating shown above when Roethlisberger is not playing
QB; so although they are listed at 8th after an adjustment of around
a TD that drops them significantly into the mid 20s.
Look forward to any comments or questions.
Be back in early December with next NFL Quarterly report.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
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