The SportsBoss: NCAAF SBPI: Top 30 Teams of Last Six Seasons (2009-2014) First Installment

After approximately two years of tweaks & statistical work we published the NCAAF SBPI (SportsBoss Power Index) for the first time last season. As a reminder the SBPI is a power index we have formulated for the NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB & NBA that takes various statistics we have tested & confirmed have the most significant impact on team performance, adjusts for SOS & provides a power rating we can use to compare vs. the lines Vegas gives us each week. As a reminder here are the SBPI rankings of each national champion since 2009 (which is how far we back-tested the model):

· 2009: Alabama #2

· 2010: Auburn #12

· 2011: Alabama #2

· 2012: Alabama #1

· 2013: Florida State #2

· 2014: Ohio State #3

As we can see above FIVE of the SIX national champs were ranked inside the Top 3 with four of the six being ranked #1 or #2. Remember, this model is PURELY based on statistics & is not adjusted for anything else including wins & losses. Based on the results above we see how well this model projects the strength of teams. For more information on the NCAAF SBPI in years 2009 to 2013 see here.

Of course each of the four SBPI ratings are calculated using different weights & variables – however, each comes to the same end result: a power rating. Our initial NCAAF SBPI post was on October 8th and we will continue posting a similar article this season come early October when enough games have been played to provide the model with enough of a statistical sample.

In today’s article we are going to countdown the Top 30 teams according to SBPI since the 2009 season. To start here is a small matrix that shows how many teams per season are inside the Top 30 teams of the last six seasons:

2009	4
2010	6
2011	3
2012	3
2013	7
2014	7

Without any further ado let’s jump in (SBPI ranking, team, year, SBPI rating, record, SOS rank*, SOS ADJ OFF rank*, SOS ADJ DEF rank*):

* Rankings include all 737 team seasons we have had since 2009

- All rankings listed in team bio’s below refers to opponent rankings when game was played

#30 Arkansas Razorbacks 2014 [251.5, 7-6, #5, #49, #87]: the Razorbacks are probably the “oddest” team that has showed up on this list considering they went just 7-6 including 2-6 in SEC play; but a big driver of their high placement was SOS where according to Sagarin (source I use for my SOS in CFB & CBB) their 2014 schedule ranked 5^th toughest of any schedule over the last six years! They played a total of 13 games in 2014 and EIGHT of those were against ranked teams including SIX vs. teams ranked in the TOP TEN!! Of their six losses just two were decided by more than a TD – and their smallest margin of victory was 17 points; that suggests none of their wins could have really turned into a loss while 4 of their losses could have shifted to the win column with perhaps a little luck and/or a more experienced team. Their defense was dominant to close the season allowing 31 total points in their last five games, four of which came against ranked teams ranked (#1, #17, #8, #17). Bret Bielema has this program on an upward trajectory – how high it can go in the robust SEC West is the real question here.

#29 Stanford Cardinal 2013 [251.9, 11-3, #7, #40, #99]: the ’13 Cardinal won the Pac 12 North, beat Arizona State in Tempe to claim the Pac 12 Championship & advance to the Rose Bowl – not bad just two years removed from losing the #1 pick in the NFL Draft QB Andrew Luck. They faced 7 ranked teams (including four Top 11 teams) during the season going 6-1 in those games, with the lone loss against a ranked foe coming in their finale against Michigan State. Their three losses were by 6 points at Utah, 3 points at USC and 4 points vs. Michigan State in the Rose Bowl; meaning they were in every game which could have led to a truly magical season with a few well timed breaks – which is so often the difference between a solid season & a championship one. On the flip side they did win four games by one score (8 points or less) – meaning half of their 14 games were decided by one possession, and they were an aggregate 4-3 in those.

#28 Auburn Tigers 2014 [251.9, 8-5, #1, #1, #280]: this version of the Auburn Tigers posted the TOP OFFENSE over the last 6 years according to the SBPI – they scored less than 31 points just three times & averaged 35.6 ppg. The meaning of “top offense” in my SBPI translates to the best overall grade in the 15 statistical categories I track (fifteen categories was the # chosen after testing p-values and correlation independent of one another to avoid spurious correlation) AFTER adjusting for SOS; without an SOS adjustment they were only ranked #6 LAST YEAR! As mentioned above with Arkansas the SEC West was so stout last season massive SOS adjustments were made to team’s performance grades. That SOS adjustment and some inefficiency as far as yards translating to points is the reason they “only” averaged 35.6 ppg (which is low for top offenses as team’s routinely average 40+ ppg). One of the biggest reasons Auburn had 5 losses last season, besides the overall strength of the schedule, was the home/road splits. Their road slate included #20 Kansas State, #3 Mississippi State, #4 Ole Miss, #15 Georgia & #1 Alabama while their home schedule featured just one ranked team, #15 LSU!

#27 Texas Longhorns 2009 [252.9, 13-1, #254, #179, #10]: Mack Brown’s last top notch Longhorn squad was this 2009 version that won the Big 12 title over Nebraska on a last second kick we all remember but fell in the National Championship game to Alabama 37-21 (see below for this Tide team that checks in at #11). We all recall that title tilt in the Rose Bowl as Colt McCoy was knocked out of the game on the Horns 5^th play from scrimmage, and true freshman Garrett Gilbert did an admirable job but it wasn’t enough as Alabama won it’s first national title since 1992. How dominant was Texas that season? Heading into the title game they outscored their opponents by an average of 41-15! This Longhorns team was anchored by the #10 defense of the last 6 years; they allowed more than 20 points just twice during the regular season – in the pass happy, high scoring Big 12 conference. They even held up very well against Alabama allowing just 263 total yards, but the 5 turnovers was the difference in the game.

#26 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2012 [254.2, 12-1, #112, #119, #25]: in his 3^rd season Brian Kelly led the Irish to an undefeated regular season including a TON of close wins (5 wins decided by 7 points or less including a pair of OT games) before they ran into that Alabama buzz-saw, our #1 team of the last 6 years (see below). Their defense checked in as the 25^th best unit of the last 6 years; heading into the national title game the Irish did not allow ONE TEAM to score more than 20 points on them in regulation (Pitt managed 26 but 6 of those were in the first two OT’s) – even against a non-juggernaut schedule that is still an impressive feat. However when they needed it most they were gashed by Bama for 529 yards, equally disbursed between rushing & passing; they were just simply outclassed in the title game.

#25 Florida Gators 2012 [254.9, 11-2, #37, #264, #2]: following his 1^st year’s 7-6 mark Will Muschamp really got things going in the Swamp his 2^nd season, checking in as the 25^th best team of the last 6 years posting an 11-2 mark. This Gators team was a defensive juggernaut, ranking as the 2^nd best unit of the last 6 seasons (only trailing the 2011 LSU defense) – leading many in Gainesville to believe Muschamp was in fact going to be more than an adequate replacement for the departed Urban Meyer. Of course that 2012 season turned out to be his peak at UF as he went 4-8 in 2013 & 7-5 in 2014 before being dismissed. The defense of the ’12 Gators was similar to ND’s above – however it was done against a much tougher schedule (37^th vs. 112^th). Florida allowed more than 20 points just once all regular season – in their finale at #10 Florida State, a game they still won 37-26. Their only loss of the regular season came in Jacksonville against Georgia 17-9 – a game where neither team’s offense could get anything going, and 6 Gator turnovers proved costly not only that day but it would also cost them a berth in the SEC Championship game. Following that there was an obvious letdown in the Sugar Bowl where Florida went down 24-3 to Teddy Bridgewater’s Louisville Cardinals and was unable to mount a comeback losing 33-23.

#24 Michigan State Spartans 2013 [255.3, 13-1, #292, #147, #14]: one of two Sparty teams to make the cut is the 2013 version, which was led by the 14^th best defense of the last 6 years; the irony is their best team in the rankings, the 2014 version (#7, see below), was buoyed by a top flight offense showing MSU has won being led by a great offense and a great defense, in back to back years no less which shows how strong & well rounded a program HC Mark Dantonio has built in East Lansing. This ’13 version lost just one game all season: at #22 Notre Dame 17-13 in a game that was marred by questionable calls against the Spartans. Granted their schedule was far from brutal (#292 overall which is little better than average [737 team seasons in this analysis making 50^th percentile ~#368] which is poor for a P6 conference team) as they faced only two ranked teams (the aforementioned Irish & #23 Michigan) before their final two games of the season where they beat #2 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game followed by the Rose Bowl win over #11 Stanford (who did make these rankings at #29 – see above). They played just two games all year decided by single digits losing at ND and beating Stanford. They used this ’13 campaign to catapult into a stronger 2014 campaign where they ranked #7 over the last 6 seasons (#2 ranked in 2014 behind Alabama ahead of national champion #3 Ohio State), and hope to build off that to a CFB Playoff run in 2015 behind 3^rd year starting Sr. QB Connor Cook.

#23 Washington Huskies 2013 [255.4, 9-4, #58, #26, #111]: the ’13 Huskies, along with #30 Arkansas, are the main “outliers” of this analysis – not exactly powerhouse football programs of late. UW’s 2013 season was the first 9+ win season for the program since 2000, and just the 2^nd since 1996; sadly for the Huskies this was the last season coach Steve Sarkisian roamed the sidelines in Seattle as he took the USC job following AD Pat Hayden’s firing of Lane Kiffin – or perhaps not so sadly? Since then Washington was able to lure Chris Petersen from Boise State, something many other major programs had attempted in the past only to fail. Petersen went 8-6 in 2014, his 1^st season – but let’s get back to the 2013 version of the Huskies. They faced four ranked teams that year going 1-3; toss in a loss to Arizona State on the road, and beating every other team on the schedule (all of which were unranked) & you have that 9-4 mark. The offense led these Huskies and the major catalysts were QB Keith Price & RB Bishop Sankey – the team was deadly when Price was able to stay on the field. Washington scored 24+ points in every game that season – but without much help from their defense the Huskies went 1-3 in the only games they scored less than 31 points in (they still scored 28, 24, 24 & 27 in those four). They did not have 1 single digit win, and did get a tough break playing 2 of 3 ranked Pac 12 opponents on the road – so it’s possible they could have enjoyed a double digit win season here with just a few breaks. Chris Petersen appears to have the Huskies back on the right track as the UW faithful still yearn for the success enjoyed during the Don James days of the late 80s and early 90s.

#22 Baylor Bears 2013 [256.8, 11-2, #257, #20, #116]: the only Baylor team to make the cut was the 2013 version that went 11-1 in the regular season followed by a Fiesta Bowl loss to UCF – a game the Bears were clearly not motivated for. Like every Baylor team under Art Briles these Bears were led by an explosive offense that averaged 52.4ppg, and averaged outscoring their opponents by more than 4TDs per game! They scored 70+ points FOUR TIMES on the season & scored 63 & 69 in two other games!! They only had one road game against a ranked team – and that trip to Stillwater cost them everything as they were blown out 49-17. Last year’s Baylor team, which also lost just one game during the regular season, had a defense ranked #206 vs. the 2013 version that ranked #116. They yielded 34+ points FOUR TIMES in 2013, but some adjustment has to be made looking at that figure in an isolated state based on the additional possessions Baylor opponents routinely have because of their quick strike, explosive offense (although the SBPI model adjusts for this phenomenon by using averages in most statistics). Baylor will need a better defensive unit than each of the last two seasons if they are to reach the CFB Playoff in 2015.

#21 Oregon Ducks 2013 [257.7, 11-2, #110, #12, #133]: the lower ranked of the two Ducks teams to make the Top 30 of the last 6 years is the 2013 version, which posted an 11-2 record but lost the Pac 12 North division title to Stanford (ranked #29 above) & settled for the Alamo Bowl where they destroyed Texas 30-7. Oregon would face just three ranked teams in ’13, their lowest # of games vs. ranked opponents in recent years – but Stanford handled them for the 2^nd straight season pushing the Ducks out of divisional contention, drastically shifting their bowl path as a Pac 12 team. Like most, if not all Ducks teams, this version was led by an offense that was SBPI ranked #12 (SOS adjusted): during the regular season they scored less than 36 points just twice – and they lost both of those games at Stanford 26-20 and at Arizona 42-16. They only played two games that were decided by single digits – splitting the pair so not much shift in record could be expected. Their defense was the major culprit costing the Ducks at any hopes of a big season in 2013.

That covers the first of three installments counting these 30 teams down; the next set of ten will be posted within a week.

Looking forward some here is a matrix that shows the 17 different schools making up the Top 30 teams according to SBPI over the last six seasons (this shows each school & the season(s) they made the cut):

Alabama (6)	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
TCU (3)	2009	2010				2014
Florida (2)	2009			2012
Georgia (2)			2011			2014
Michigan State (2)					2013	2014
Ohio State (2)		2010				2014
Oregon (2)		2010			2013
Stanford (2)		2010			2013
Arkansas (1)						2014
Auburn (1)						2014
Baylor (1)					2013
Boise State (1)		2010
Florida State (1)					2013
LSU (1)			2011
Notre Dame (1)				2012
Texas (1)	2009
Washington (1)					2013