Monday, January 26, 2015

NCAAB 2015: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] through Sunday January 25


Here is our second installment of the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday January 25 (SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings; DUN = Dunkel Index Rankings):


ADJ RATINGS






Team
SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
DUN
Kentucky
399.9
1

1
1
2
1
1
Kansas
395.9
2

11
10
1
10
18
Butler
385.5
3

22
25
17
17
32
Villanova
383.7
4

7
8
6
8
6
Duke
379.4
5

8
7
7
4
8
Baylor
374.9
6

15
19
16
16
19
Arizona
372.4
7

4
5
5
6
5
VCU
360.4
8

18
18
4
21
17
Wisconsin
355.3
9

6
4
8
5
3
Wichita State
351.9
10

9
13
13
13
20
Utah
348.2
11

5
9
11
7
11
Louisville
347.8
12

14
11
18
12
10
Gonzaga
347.7
13

3
3
9
3
4
Virginia
346.5
14

2
2
3
2
2
West Virginia
338.4
15

16
14
15
14
13
Florida
335.6
16

36
33


23
Oklahoma State
332.6
17

29

34
31
29
North Carolina
331.4
18

10
6
10
9
7
Xavier
331.1
19

24
22
32
26

Providence
327.2
20



20
30

San Diego State
327.0
21

26
35
27
33

Oklahoma
325.2
22

12
20
30
18
14
Brigham Young
322.6
23





24
South Carolina
321.1
24





36
Georgetown
318.6
25

23
17
12
22

North Carolina State
317.8
26


30

36

Michigan State
312.7
27

27
27

24
28
UCLA
309.8
28






Iowa
309.6
29





30
Stanford
309.1
30

31
31
32
32
35
Arkansas
309.0
31


32
22
35
26
Illinois
307.6
32






Arizona State
307.6
33






Iowa State
307.3
34

25
23
21
20
15
Ohio State
303.3
35

20
15

15
12
Texas
302.2
36

17
26
25
19
21

I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week & will continue that format going forward.  Why?  I figured there are 32 automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of other five sources:

#37 Seton Hall (DUN #27)
#40 Georgia (KP #28, BPI #21, RPI #24)
#41 Texas A&M (RPI #35)
#45 Ole Miss (KP #34)
#48 Davidson (KP #33, BPI #34, SAG #29)
#50 Miami, FL (SAG #25)
#56 Cincinnati (KP #32, RPI #28, DUN #31)
#58 Maryland (KP #30, BPI #24, RPI #14, SAG #23, DUN #16)
#66 SMU (KP #21, BPI #28, RPI #19, SAG #27, DUN #22)
#68 Syracuse (DUN #34)
#69 Indiana (RPI #31, SAG #34, DUN #33)
#72 Colorado State (RPI #29)
#75 Dayton (BPI #29, RPI #26, DUN #25)
#79 Northern Iowa (KP #19, BPI #16, RPI #23, SAG #28)
#90 LSU (KP #35, BPI #36)
#148 Notre Dame (KP #13, BPI #12, RPI #36, SAG #11, DUN #9)

Let’s take a closer look at Notre Dame as they are a big time outlier compared to the polls, other power indices & record.  If you followed my NCAAF SBPI this season you will most likely draw comparisons between these Fighting Irish and the Florida State Seminoles, who I had ranked in the mid-50s most of the season – much lower obviously than any other poll or power index.  Why is ND checking in so low?  Strength of schedule is the culprit no doubt.  I think the better question is to ask Ken Pomeroy how he can have the Irish ranked #13 with the following metrics, per his site:

Irish offense ranked #1 vs. the 173rd toughest schedule of opponent’s defense
Irish defense ranked #153 vs. the 284th toughest schedule of opponent’s offense
DOES THAT EQUAL Irish overall #13 vs. the 255th toughest schedule?

I do not see how those metrics add up to his ranking.  And since his website is really the only one of the five sources I compare my metrics to that offers up some numbers/support behind their rankings I cannot compare others to mine.  But it’s seems fairly obvious to me his support does not equal the ranking he gives Notre Dame.

New this week, but an analysis we showed in our NCAAF SBPI articles that people enjoyed, is the variance report that shows team’s movement over the last week.  Today we will show team’s that had a 50 spot or greater change in their ranking inclusive of all conferences:

Team
18-Jan
25-Jan
Change
Prairie View A&M
176
257
(81)
Texas Christian
293
213
80
Southern
134
209
(75)
DePaul
200
134
66
Akron
191
136
55
Lamar
155
210
(55)
Idaho
194
247
(53)
North Carolina Central
72
125
(53)
Northern Colorado
297
244
53
Texas Tech
215
162
53
USC Upstate
216
269
(53)
Wagner
140
193
(53)
Norfolk State
129
179
(50)

As we can see most of the big moves were in the lower level conferences where a very strong or weak performance can impact a team’s full season metrics typically more than higher level conference teams.  With that point in mind here is another matrix that isolates Power 6 conference moves over the last week – we will show the Top 10 changes only (it’s just coincidence all ten of these teams improved in their ranking; that will not be the case each week):

Team
18-Jan
25-Jan
Change
DePaul
200
134
66
Texas Tech
215
162
53
Washington
182
133
49
Northwestern
169
126
43
Mississippi State
232
190
42
Nebraska
160
118
42
USC
205
165
40
Pittsburgh
96
57
39
LSU
128
90
38
Virginia Tech
281
243
38

Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by conference:

RANK
CONFERENCE
AVG RATING
TOP 36
1
BE
304.9
5
2
B12
303.9
7
3
ACC
276.6
5
4
SEC
275.6
4
5
B10
273.5
5
6
P12
268.5
5
7
WCC
253.6
2
8
A10
240.1
1
9
MVC
228.7
1
10
HORIZON
221.3

11
AAC
215.0

12
MAC
211.7

13
MWC
209.6
1
14
BIG WEST
203.9

15
IVY
196.5

16
CUSA
193.9

17
OVC
189.1

18
SOCON
182.1

19
BIG SOUTH
179.5

20
SUN BELT
178.3

21
CAA
178.1

22
SOUTHLAND
175.0

23
SUMMIT
175.0

24
BIG SKY
173.1

25
PATRIOT
166.0

26
MAAC
164.3

27
WAC
161.8

28
NEC
159.1

29
AMER EAST
157.6

30
INDEPENDENT
154.3

31
ASUN
153.3

32
MEAC
148.1

33
SWAC
135.4


For this week, and moving forward, I have added in a new column to this portion of the article that shows the average rating of every team in a conference.  To further clarify these figures, for example, the Big East, whom retains the #1 spot again, has an average rating of 304.9 for the 10 teams in their conference.  By looking at the first matrix in this article we can see that 304.9 average rating would fall between the 34th best team in country Iowa State & the 35th best team in the country Ohio State.  The Big 12 remains right on the heels of the Big East for the top conference in the country according to SBPI, falling just 1.0 short of taking over that spot.  What is the biggest driver between these two conferences?  The bottom of the Big 12, namely Texas Tech (#162) & TCU (#213) are both rated well below the worst Big East team DePaul (#134).  In addition the 2nd worst Big East team is Creighton, who checks in at #65 with Marquette just one spot ahead of the Blue Jays at #64.  So measuring top to bottom the Big East is the strongest conference in the country – a lot of which is driven by only having one awful team in the SBPI while many other conferences have multiple teams below DePaul.

Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10, BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:


ADJ RATINGS






Team
SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
DUN
VCU
360.4
8

18
18
4
21
17
Wichita State
351.9
10

9
13
13
13
20
Gonzaga
347.7
13

3
3
9
3
4
San Diego State
327.0
21

26
35
27
33

Brigham Young
322.6
23





24
Yale
294.6
39






Illinois State
288.4
42






Saint Mary's
280.7
46






Davidson
279.2
48

33
34

29

Boise State
274.5
49






Old Dominion
272.3
52






Temple
272.2
53






Tulsa
270.3
54






Cincinnati
269.4
56

32

28

31
Stephen F. Austin
266.5
60






La Salle
260.8
62






George Washington
260.1
63






Southern Methodist
259.1
66

21
28
19
27
22
Western Kentucky
259.0
67






Cleveland State
257.3
70







Examining this group closer as far as NCAA Tournament at-large bids go it’s very unlikely any teams outside the Top 5 (VCU, Wichita State, Gonzaga, San Diego State & BYU) would earn an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tournament – especially if that loss came before the championship game.  And of those five the top 3 are locks to be dancing with or without the automatic bid; San Diego State would be likely to earn a bid but not a lock should they lose in their conference tournament; BYU likely needs to at least reach the championship game in the WCC Tournament to feel good about their chances.  Keep in mind there is of course a lot of games to be played – but for these teams to earn at-large bids a lot of their work, for good or bad, was completed in the OOC portion of their schedule.

Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Basketball SBPI:


ADJ RATINGS
Team
SUM
RANK
Nicholls State
106.9
342
Liberty
105.3
343
UMBC
103.8
344
Stetson
103.3
345
Maine
95.8
346
Kennesaw State
92.7
347
Grambling State
92.0
348
Central Connecticut State
88.0
349
Florida A&M
63.3
350
Central Arkansas
54.7
351

Only change to the bottom ten teams this week was Nicholls State moving down to #342 from #325 replacing Texas A&M CC who rose from #342 to #339 this week.  Last week Nicholls State lost to Texas A&M CC at home by 3, lost to Sam Houston State 62-39 at home but beat Central Arkansas (lowest ranked team in college basketball each of last two editions) by 10 on road.

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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