This is our second installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes as January winds down over this coming weekend.
Before jumping into this week’s breakdown let’s take a quick
look back comparing my projected field last week with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Setting aside automatic bids & focusing
on at-large teams Lunardi had in the following:
- Tulsa: in my “Next Five Out”
- Wyoming: not in my analysis at all meaning I have 43 teams ahead of them for an at-large bid
- Louisiana Tech: also not in my analysis, see Wyoming comment
To summarize I have Tulsa on the fringes of earning an
at-large while the other two teams are not even on my radar as far as earning
an at-large bid.
Here are the three teams I had in:
- Washington: in Lunardi’s “Next Four Out”
- Davidson: in Lunardi’s “First Four Out”
- BYU: not on Lunardi’s list
When I look at each set of three teams I would certainly
lean towards my selections (I guess that’s fairly obvious since it is my
bracketology) over his, but would be interested in hearing from others who
disagree with me, him, or have any comments overall on those six teams.
Now that we briefly looked back at last week’s differences
(which we will do every week) let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection! Below we breakdown each conference into three
buckets initially (with a fourth bucket “life support” coming in our
next installment along with a more detailed breakdown – see last year’s
Bracketology entries to get a feel for next week’s template):
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference**
**To add some color
to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through action on Thursday
January 29. For one bid leagues I will
also show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not
selected as my automatic bid entrant to give a feel for their competition**
**Last key to
remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my
breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme
longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them
later out of blue. Leveraging that idea
further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them
up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not
want to slide teams down levels, only up.
Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a
level at this point in the season**
America East: Stony
Brook #111 (Albany #218)
American Athletic:
SMU #69
Looking Good: Cincinnati
#55
Need Wins: Temple #48, Tulsa #62, Memphis
#141, UConn #99
Atlantic Ten: VCU
#8
Need Wins: Davidson #42, Dayton
#58, George Washington #64, Rhode Island #93
ACC: Virginia #12
Looking Good: Duke #1, North
Carolina #18, Louisville #9, Notre Dame #112
Need Wins: Miami #60, NC State #34,
Syracuse #47, Clemson #87, Pittsburgh #61
Atlantic Sun: North
Florida #166 (Florida Gulf Coast #205)
Big 12: Kansas #2
Looking Good: Iowa State #35, West
Virginia #14, Oklahoma #20, Texas #27
Need Wins: Baylor #7, Oklahoma State
#21, Kansas St. #49
Big East: Villanova
#4
Looking Good: Butler #5, Providence
#24, Georgetown #25
Need Wins: Seton Hall #37, Xavier
#11, St. John’s #59
Big Sky: Eastern
Washington #211 (Northern Arizona #137)
Big South: High
Point #123 (Gardner-Webb #106)
Big Ten: Wisconsin
#10
Looking Good: Maryland #52, Indiana
#56
Need Wins: Ohio State #31, Michigan
State #28, Iowa #32, Illinois #36, Michigan #43, Purdue #57, Nebraska #118, Penn
State #127, Minnesota #44
Big West: Long
Beach State #82 (UCSB #72)
Colonial: William
& Mary #102 (Northeastern #163)
Conference USA: Old
Dominion #63 (Western Kentucky #73)
If OLD
DOMINION does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large
bid. The Monarchs have gone 2-0 vs. Top
50 RPI teams: win over RPI #38 LSU on a neutral court & a home win over RPI
#4 VCU. They have also gone 3-1 vs. RPI
#51-100 for a total mark of 5-1 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.
Horizon: Cleveland
State #66 (Green Bay #84)
Ivy: Yale #39
(Harvard #89)
MAAC: Iona #173
(Canisius #151)
MAC: Bowling Green
#124 (Buffalo #65)
MEAC: North
Carolina Central #142 (Norfolk State #215)
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State #15
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field. The
Shockers are currently 7-2 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.
Need Wins: Northern Iowa #76
Mountain West: San
Diego State #33
If SAN DIEGO
STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field. The
Shockers are currently 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams including a signature win over
RPI #11 Utah earlier in the season.
Need Wins: Colorado State #80
Northeast: St.
Francis NY #170 (St. Francis PA #189)
Ohio Valley: Murray
State #113 (Eastern Kentucky #75)
Pac 12: Arizona #6
Looking Good: Utah #13
Need Wins: Stanford #22, Washington
#134, Oregon St. #126, Oregon #96, UCLA #23
Patriot: Bucknell
#213 (Holy Cross #188)
SEC: Kentucky #3
Looking Good: Arkansas #30, Georgia
#45
Need Wins: LSU #95, Texas A&M
#40, Ole Miss #46, Tennessee #81, Alabama #54, Florida #16
Southern: Wofford
#110 (Chattanooga #140)
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin #68 (Sam Houston State #101)
SWAC: Texas Southern
#203 (Southern #229)
Summit: South Dakota
State #169 (Oral Roberts #86)
Sun Belt: Georgia
Southern #159 (Georgia State #135)
West Coast: Gonzaga
#17
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Need Wins: St Mary’s #53,
BYU #26
WAC: New Mexico
State #107 (Chicago State #227)
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 17
(up from 15 last week with West Virginia & Georgia added)
Currently I project 49
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 43 (two
added this week were Clemson & Penn State)
That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 19 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it
currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference
alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference):
Temple (LAST FIVE IN)
Davidson
Dayton
Miami, Fla
NC State
Syracuse
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Seton Hall
Xavier (LAST FIVE IN)
Ohio State
Michigan State
Iowa
Northern Iowa (LAST FIVE IN)
Colorado State (LAST FIVE IN)
Stanford
LSU
Texas A&M
Ole Miss (LAST FIVE IN)
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order by conference:
Tulsa
Illinois
Michigan
St. Mary’s
BYU
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
ACC (8)
B12 (7)
BE (6): lost St. John’s
B10 (6)
SEC (6): added Texas A&M and Ole Miss
P12 (3): lost Washington
A10 (3)
AAC (3): added Temple
MWC (2)
MVC (2)
**Additional team that fell off from last week was BYU, moving the WCC to a 1-bid conference**
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