This is our first installment of the 2014 NFL season
discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help
us form opinions on each NFL team. Let’s
jump right into the numbers!
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated by grading game by game performance in 16 different
stats on both sides of the ball:
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
|||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
||||||
|
3
|
SEA
|
55.0
|
3
|
42.3
|
5
|
97.3
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
|||||
|
3
|
IND
|
52.0
|
4
|
39.7
|
10
|
91.7
|
2
|
27
|
1
|
|||||
|
3
|
SF
|
47.3
|
13
|
44.0
|
2
|
91.3
|
3
|
17
|
5
|
|||||
|
2
|
NO
|
59.0
|
1
|
32.0
|
24
|
91.0
|
4
|
31
|
(7)
|
|||||
|
3
|
DEN
|
48.1
|
12
|
42.0
|
6
|
90.1
|
5
|
2
|
(1)
|
|||||
|
4
|
SD
|
49.3
|
10
|
40.8
|
8
|
90.1
|
5
|
29
|
6
|
|||||
|
4
|
DAL
|
58.6
|
2
|
31.3
|
25
|
89.9
|
7
|
15
|
(1)
|
|||||
|
3
|
DET
|
36.8
|
25
|
51.6
|
1
|
88.4
|
8
|
26
|
(2)
|
|||||
|
3
|
NYG
|
46.9
|
14
|
41.2
|
7
|
88.1
|
9
|
28
|
0
|
|||||
|
2
|
MIA
|
44.8
|
16
|
43.0
|
4
|
87.8
|
10
|
18
|
0
|
|||||
|
3
|
BAL
|
51.0
|
7
|
36.2
|
14
|
87.2
|
11
|
11
|
2
|
|||||
|
3
|
PIT
|
50.8
|
8
|
36.1
|
15
|
86.9
|
12
|
32
|
(1)
|
|||||
|
3
|
CIN
|
51.4
|
5
|
35.1
|
18
|
86.5
|
13
|
9
|
3
|
|||||
|
2
|
KC
|
43.8
|
17
|
38.1
|
11
|
81.9
|
14
|
7
|
(3)
|
|||||
|
2
|
CHI
|
43.7
|
18
|
37.9
|
13
|
81.6
|
15
|
20
|
1
|
|||||
|
1
|
WAS
|
45.0
|
15
|
35.7
|
17
|
80.7
|
16
|
24
|
(5)
|
|||||
|
3
|
NE
|
42.5
|
20
|
38.1
|
11
|
80.6
|
17
|
30
|
6
|
|||||
|
2
|
ATL
|
51.3
|
6
|
28.4
|
28
|
79.7
|
18
|
25
|
(3)
|
|||||
|
3
|
BUF
|
35.9
|
28
|
43.7
|
3
|
79.6
|
19
|
8
|
6
|
|||||
|
1
|
STL
|
48.3
|
11
|
30.9
|
26
|
79.1
|
20
|
23
|
(3)
|
|||||
|
1
|
NYJ
|
36.1
|
26
|
40.8
|
8
|
76.9
|
21
|
19
|
(7)
|
|||||
|
3
|
GB
|
41.1
|
21
|
33.9
|
19
|
75.0
|
22
|
13
|
6
|
|||||
|
1
|
TEN
|
40.8
|
23
|
33.2
|
20
|
74.0
|
23
|
7
|
0
|
|||||
|
4
|
PHI
|
40.3
|
24
|
33.2
|
20
|
73.5
|
24
|
14
|
(4)
|
|||||
|
3
|
CAR
|
40.9
|
22
|
32.5
|
23
|
73.4
|
25
|
12
|
4
|
|||||
|
3
|
HOU
|
43.0
|
19
|
30.3
|
27
|
73.3
|
26
|
22
|
4
|
|||||
|
2
|
CLE
|
50.3
|
9
|
22.0
|
32
|
72.3
|
27
|
5
|
3
|
|||||
|
3
|
ARI
|
35.5
|
29
|
35.9
|
16
|
71.4
|
28
|
1
|
4
|
|||||
|
2
|
MIN
|
34.9
|
30
|
33.0
|
22
|
67.9
|
29
|
22
|
(2)
|
|||||
|
1
|
TB
|
36.1
|
26
|
25.1
|
31
|
61.2
|
30
|
16
|
(2)
|
|||||
|
0
|
OAK
|
28.8
|
31
|
26.3
|
30
|
55.0
|
31
|
10
|
(4)
|
|||||
|
0
|
JAC
|
26.9
|
32
|
27.1
|
29
|
54.0
|
32
|
4
|
(6)
|
|||||
At the top we see six playoff teams from last season with
the Super Bowl combatants Seattle & Denver in the Top 5; let’s discuss
these six teams briefly:
- SEA: no surprise seeing the defending Super Bowl champions at the top of the ratings after 5 weeks, four games for the Seahawks. Seattle was outplayed in their only loss of the season to San Diego in Wk2; in their other three outings they posted grades of 113, 100 & 109 – very strong. Not only are they performing well, seemingly avoiding the dreaded Super Bowl hangover, they have faced the 3rd toughest schedule (ARI #1, DEN #2), another strong indication this team is once again at the top of the NFL.
- IND: the Colts have NOT graded out well the last two seasons despite posting 11 wins in each of Andrew Luck’s first two NFL seasons (#16 in 2013 & #24 in 2012). This year so far on aggregate has been different – but keep in mind two things: one, they were outplayed badly in their opening two games vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams DEN & PHI; two, they increased their aggregate grade through five games with triple digit marks vs. JAC, TEN & BAL. Let’s see where the Colts stand after their next five games before getting too excited they have turned the corner & are a true Super Bowl contender in the AFC.
- SF: the Niners are back in a very familiar spot inside the Top 5 checking in at #3 this week. Many in the media panicked after their first three games (I certainly did not because we saw the same story in the 2013 season), but SF got back to running the ball & took care of business in their last two vs. fellow 2013 playoff teams PHI & KC (albeit both games were at home). They have outplayed four of five opponents thus far (only game they did not was at ARI where they still managed a grade of 78, meaning they were narrowly outplayed) and still have the look of an NFC contender in the numbers.
- NO: without question the biggest surprise to many will be the Saints, who check in at #4 in the performance ratings. It’s very easy to see what their main issue has been so far this season – turnovers. They are tied with NYJ for worst TOM in the NFL – and if they do figure out a way to fix that issue they are playing solid football – albeit only on the offensive side where they rank #1. Their defense is a big issue & it only got worse losing S Byrd last week. With a remaining schedule that ranks 2nd toughest in the NFL according to opponent wins through the early part of this season it’s clearly going to be an uphill battle for the Saints in 2014.
- DEN: the Broncos check in tied for the 5th spot with division rival San Diego, but have faced the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL to this point vs. SD’s 29th. Each of their first four opponents won 10+ games in 2013 & outside this week’s trip to NYJ they will see 2013 10+ win teams through Wk9 before facing OAK, STL & MIA in consecutive weeks. Although they were able to push the Seahawks to OT on a vintage Peyton Manning drive late in the 4th quarter they were badly outplayed in that game to the tune of 99-61: meaning the final score was not indicative of how dominant the Seahawks really were on that day (most of you probably realized that by watching the game). Denver will be near the top of the ratings all season long, but once again their season will come down to their success in January & perhaps February.
- SD: the Chargers are tied with Denver at this point for 5th, and are a clear player for the AFC Super Bowl berth. Head Coach Mike McCoy has revitalized Philip Rivers’ career, but can they get over those Broncos in the AFC West remains a big question, especially with the injuries in their backfield to RBs Matthews & Woodhead. SD’s SOS to date checks in at 29th in the NFL and that INCLUDES a game vs. Seattle – showing just how weak their other 4 opponents have been. Expect the Chargers to be around 9-2 before their final 5 games of the regular season that feature @BAL, NE, DEN, @SF, @KC – those five are likely to tell the story of their regular season.
Next is my red flag/green light identification. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings
& TOM to identify teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas
because they are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that
have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the
field performance.
- Red Flag: ARI (w/o Palmer), HOU, CAR
- Green Light: NO, DAL, KC
Now let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. Here are the figures – I simply take each
team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s
four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is
the best / #32 the worst):
|
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
|
NW
|
52
|
1
|
|
AW
|
55
|
2
|
|
NE
|
56
|
3
|
|
AN
|
63
|
4
|
|
AE
|
67
|
5
|
|
NN
|
74
|
6
|
|
NS
|
77
|
7
|
|
AS
|
83
|
8
|
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk5. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
8.57
|
7.43
|
DAL
|
9.77
|
6.23
|
|
|
BUF
|
8.27
|
7.73
|
PHI
|
9.27
|
6.73
|
|
|
MIA
|
7.52
|
8.48
|
NYG
|
8.76
|
7.24
|
|
|
NYJ
|
5.98
|
10.02
|
WAS
|
6.41
|
9.59
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
10.19
|
5.81
|
DET
|
9.32
|
6.68
|
|
|
BAL
|
9.10
|
6.90
|
GB
|
8.76
|
7.24
|
|
|
PIT
|
8.53
|
7.47
|
CHI
|
7.58
|
8.42
|
|
|
CLE
|
7.51
|
8.49
|
MIN
|
6.91
|
9.09
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
9.45
|
6.55
|
CAR
|
8.57
|
7.43
|
|
|
HOU
|
8.60
|
7.40
|
NO
|
7.56
|
8.44
|
|
|
TEN
|
5.88
|
10.12
|
ATL
|
7.31
|
8.69
|
|
|
JAC
|
3.15
|
12.85
|
TB
|
5.51
|
10.49
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
11.91
|
4.09
|
SEA
|
11.76
|
4.24
|
|
|
SD
|
10.08
|
5.92
|
ARI
|
9.31
|
6.69
|
|
|
KC
|
7.50
|
8.50
|
SF
|
8.27
|
7.73
|
|
|
OAK
|
3.66
|
12.34
|
STL
|
5.01
|
10.99
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 BAL @ #3 IND
|
#6 PHI @ #3 DET
|
|||||
|
#5 SD @ #4 NE
|
#5 ARI @ #4 CAR
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
|
#2 CIN
|
#2 DAL
|
|||||
Here are the current playoff projections where I use my
power ratings to play out the entire season.
Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my
performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home
field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance
at winning each game. I simply add up
the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played,
and it all comes to my projected standings listed above. One aspect of this analysis to note is the
teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to where team’s actual records
will finish (especially early in the season) – meaning, using this analysis to
project order of finish, playoff berths and seeds is very accurate, but using
it to project actual wins and losses will not be as accurate since teams on the
outer edges of wins (very high or very low) will typically win more/less than projected.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:
|
Overall
|
|
|
DEN
|
1
|
|
SEA
|
2
|
|
CIN
|
3
|
|
IND
|
4
|
|
SD
|
4
|
|
DAL
|
6
|
|
DET
|
7
|
|
ARI
|
8
|
|
NYG
|
8
|
|
SF
|
10
|
|
NO
|
11
|
|
PHI
|
12
|
|
GB
|
13
|
|
BAL
|
13
|
|
CAR
|
15
|
|
NE
|
16
|
|
KC
|
17
|
|
PIT
|
17
|
|
ATL
|
19
|
|
WAS
|
19
|
|
CHI
|
21
|
|
BUF
|
22
|
|
MIA
|
23
|
|
NYJ
|
24
|
|
HOU
|
25
|
|
CLE
|
26
|
|
MIN
|
27
|
|
TB
|
28
|
|
TEN
|
29
|
|
STL
|
30
|
|
OAK
|
31
|
|
JAC
|
32
|
One point on these power ratings is a team like ARI – I continue
to rate them as if Carson Palmer is their QB, and make an “adjustment” to their
rating on a game by game basis depending on who their QB is for a given week.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
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