One of the more interesting articles this time of
season is the plus / minus 4 wins analysis; what does that mean? Each NFL season we see approximately a dozen
teams either enjoy 4+ more wins or suffer through 4+ more losses
compared to the prior year – that is a significant swing considering that
equals about 37.5% of all NFL teams have a 25% or greater change in their win
total. Of course this analysis is more
for the straight-up analyst – really for fans of each team – but it can
certainly also add value to the bettor with future plays or as a small cog in
your week to week handicapping efforts if applied properly.
Initially let’s take a look at wins by team for each of the
last five seasons along with total wins for the last five & three seasons
with a ranking of each for those metrics as well:
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
2013
|
L5yrs
|
RANK
|
L3yrs
|
RANK
|
|
|
ARI
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
10
|
38
|
19
|
23
|
18
|
|
ATL
|
9
|
13
|
10
|
13
|
4
|
49
|
6
|
27
|
10
|
|
BAL
|
9
|
12
|
12
|
10
|
8
|
51
|
4
|
30
|
7
|
|
BUF
|
6
|
4
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
28
|
27
|
18
|
25
|
|
CAR
|
8
|
2
|
6
|
7
|
12
|
35
|
22
|
25
|
12
|
|
CHI
|
7
|
11
|
8
|
10
|
8
|
44
|
11
|
26
|
11
|
|
CIN
|
10
|
4
|
9
|
10
|
11
|
44
|
11
|
30
|
7
|
|
CLE
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
23
|
32
|
13
|
31
|
|
DAL
|
11
|
6
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
42
|
15
|
25
|
12
|
|
DEN
|
8
|
4
|
8
|
13
|
13
|
46
|
9
|
34
|
3
|
|
DET
|
2
|
6
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
29
|
25
|
21
|
22
|
|
GB
|
11
|
10
|
15
|
11
|
8
|
55
|
2
|
34
|
3
|
|
HOU
|
9
|
6
|
10
|
12
|
2
|
39
|
18
|
24
|
14
|
|
IND
|
14
|
10
|
2
|
11
|
11
|
48
|
8
|
24
|
14
|
|
JAC
|
7
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
4
|
26
|
30
|
11
|
32
|
|
KC
|
4
|
10
|
7
|
2
|
11
|
34
|
24
|
20
|
24
|
|
MIA
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
35
|
22
|
21
|
22
|
|
MIN
|
12
|
6
|
3
|
10
|
5
|
36
|
20
|
18
|
25
|
|
NE
|
10
|
14
|
13
|
12
|
12
|
61
|
1
|
37
|
1
|
|
NO
|
13
|
11
|
13
|
7
|
11
|
55
|
2
|
31
|
5
|
|
NYG
|
8
|
10
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
42
|
15
|
24
|
14
|
|
NYJ
|
9
|
11
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
42
|
15
|
22
|
19
|
|
OAK
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
4
|
4
|
29
|
25
|
16
|
28
|
|
PHI
|
11
|
10
|
8
|
4
|
10
|
43
|
13
|
22
|
19
|
|
PIT
|
9
|
12
|
12
|
8
|
8
|
49
|
6
|
28
|
9
|
|
SD
|
13
|
9
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
46
|
9
|
24
|
14
|
|
SEA
|
5
|
7
|
7
|
11
|
13
|
43
|
13
|
31
|
5
|
|
SF
|
8
|
6
|
13
|
11
|
12
|
50
|
5
|
36
|
2
|
|
STL
|
1
|
7
|
2
|
7
|
7
|
24
|
31
|
16
|
28
|
|
TB
|
3
|
10
|
4
|
7
|
4
|
28
|
27
|
15
|
30
|
|
TEN
|
8
|
6
|
9
|
6
|
7
|
36
|
20
|
22
|
19
|
|
WAS
|
4
|
6
|
5
|
10
|
3
|
28
|
27
|
18
|
25
|
That table forms the base of the below analysis which
displays the year over year (YOY) change in wins by team:
|
08-09
|
09-10
|
10-11
|
11-12
|
12-13
|
|
|
ARI
|
1
|
(5)
|
3
|
(3)
|
5
|
|
ATL
|
(2)
|
4
|
(3)
|
3
|
(9)
|
|
BAL
|
(2)
|
3
|
0
|
(2)
|
(2)
|
|
BUF
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
|
CAR
|
(4)
|
(6)
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
|
CHI
|
(2)
|
4
|
(3)
|
2
|
(2)
|
|
CIN
|
6
|
(6)
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
|
CLE
|
1
|
0
|
(1)
|
1
|
(1)
|
|
DAL
|
2
|
(5)
|
2
|
1
|
(1)
|
|
DEN
|
0
|
(4)
|
4
|
5
|
0
|
|
DET
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
(6)
|
3
|
|
GB
|
5
|
(1)
|
5
|
(4)
|
(3)
|
|
HOU
|
1
|
(3)
|
4
|
2
|
(10)
|
|
IND
|
2
|
(4)
|
(8)
|
9
|
0
|
|
JAC
|
2
|
1
|
(3)
|
(3)
|
2
|
|
KC
|
2
|
6
|
(3)
|
(5)
|
9
|
|
MIA
|
(4)
|
0
|
(1)
|
1
|
1
|
|
MIN
|
2
|
(6)
|
(3)
|
7
|
(5)
|
|
NE
|
(1)
|
4
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
0
|
|
NO
|
5
|
(2)
|
2
|
(6)
|
4
|
|
NYG
|
(4)
|
2
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
|
NYJ
|
0
|
2
|
(3)
|
(2)
|
2
|
|
OAK
|
0
|
3
|
0
|
(4)
|
0
|
|
PHI
|
2
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(4)
|
6
|
|
PIT
|
(3)
|
3
|
0
|
(4)
|
0
|
|
SD
|
5
|
(4)
|
(1)
|
(1)
|
2
|
|
SEA
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
4
|
2
|
|
SF
|
1
|
(2)
|
7
|
(2)
|
1
|
|
STL
|
(1)
|
6
|
(5)
|
5
|
0
|
|
TB
|
(6)
|
7
|
(6)
|
3
|
(3)
|
|
TEN
|
(5)
|
(2)
|
3
|
(3)
|
1
|
|
WAS
|
(4)
|
2
|
(1)
|
5
|
(7)
|
|
4
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
|
|
6
|
8
|
3
|
7
|
4
|
|
|
10
|
15
|
10
|
13
|
9
|
LEGEND:
- Teams that improved their wins by 4+ YOY are colored green & the number of teams who accomplished that feat are highlighted green towards bottom
- Teams that worsened by 4+ YOY are highlighted in red & the number of teams who accomplished that feat are highlighted in red towards bottom
- The final yellow row is simply a sum of the green & red rows which equals the total number of teams in a given season that shifted their wins by 4+ either way
Last year was the lowest # of teams that moved by the
requisite 4 wins either way – just 9; over the last five seasons the average is
roughly 11, just below the target premise discussed above of 12.
How can we use this information in an attempt to predict
team records for the 2014 season? In the
next matrix I lay out the information in two sets of two columns: “all
scenarios” includes any plus or minus 4 wins from last year that does not go
above 16 or below 0 (for example Denver was 13-3 last season but they are
obviously not a candidate to improve by 4 wins this season because that would
equal 17 wins); “my realistic scenarios” eliminates those outcomes I deem to have
little chance of occurring such as Baltimore winning 4 or fewer games in the
upcoming season (of course we assume no catastrophic injuries – that is one
reason I rarely suggest futures plays to my clients, far too many “unknown”
variables).
|
|
All Scenarios
|
|
My Realistic
Scenarios
|
||
|
|
2014 Projected Wins
|
2014 Projected Wins
|
|||
|
|
+4 wins
|
-4 wins
|
+4 wins
|
-4 wins
|
|
|
ARI
|
6
|
6
|
|||
|
ATL
|
8
|
8
|
|
||
|
BAL
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
BUF
|
10
|
2
|
|
||
|
CAR
|
8
|
8
|
|||
|
CHI
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
CIN
|
7
|
7
|
|||
|
CLE
|
8
|
8
|
|
||
|
DAL
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
DEN
|
9
|
|
|||
|
DET
|
11
|
3
|
11
|
|
|
|
GB
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
HOU
|
6
|
6
|
|
||
|
IND
|
7
|
7
|
|||
|
JAC
|
8
|
|
|||
|
KC
|
7
|
7
|
|||
|
MIA
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
|
|
|
MIN
|
9
|
9
|
|
||
|
NE
|
8
|
8
|
|||
|
NO
|
7
|
7
|
|||
|
NYG
|
11
|
11
|
|
||
|
NYJ
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
OAK
|
8
|
8
|
|
||
|
PHI
|
6
|
6
|
|||
|
PIT
|
12
|
4
|
12
|
4
|
|
|
SD
|
13
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
|
|
SEA
|
9
|
9
|
|||
|
SF
|
8
|
8
|
|||
|
STL
|
11
|
3
|
3
|
||
|
TB
|
8
|
8
|
|
||
|
TEN
|
11
|
3
|
3
|
||
|
WAS
|
7
|
7
|
|
||
|
|
|
||||
|
|
44 possibilities
|
33 possibilities
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
There are 44 possible outcomes under “all scenarios”, which
uses strictly the math of the analysis, where teams could either improve or
worsen their wins by 4+ games; the two columns to the right is where I have
eliminated 11 of those 44 possible outcomes leaving us with 33 “final” choices,
of which approximately a dozen will actually occur (it also just so happened
those 33 are split into 17 who could improve by 4+ games & 16 who could
worsen by same amount). Of those 12
possibilities it is also a fair assumption to split those 6/6 – half of the
changes will occur by teams improving (2nd to last column on right)
while half will occur with teams worsening (last column on right). I am sure when you first look at those 33
potential outcomes it seems hard to believe that 12 of them will occur – but
that is what makes this analysis so interesting: just like we see almost half
the NFL playoff teams change YOY we will see these drastic record changes despite
it looking so far-fetched as we sit here today.
What are the best ways to attempt at selecting which
outcomes are most likely? One place to
start is examining the first matrix I posted which shows how each team has done
in each of the last five seasons – was last year an outlier? Of course there are many variables that need
to be taken into account such as injuries last year, free agent additions this
year, draft picks, schedule, etc...(most of those topics I will be touching on
prior to the start of the season in my usual NFL season preview entries).
One additional angle I will present here is Phil Steele’s “Stock
Market Indicator” (SMI) – this metric simply takes a 2 year average of each
teams wins, compares it to their performance last year & can be used as a
forward looking indicator.
|
L2yrs Avg
|
LY
|
VARIANCE
|
|
|
ARI
|
7.5
|
10
|
(2.5)
|
|
ATL
|
8.5
|
4
|
4.5
|
|
BAL
|
9
|
8
|
1.0
|
|
BUF
|
6
|
6
|
0.0
|
|
CAR
|
9.5
|
12
|
(2.5)
|
|
CHI
|
9
|
8
|
1.0
|
|
CIN
|
10.5
|
11
|
(0.5)
|
|
CLE
|
4.5
|
4
|
0.5
|
|
DAL
|
8.5
|
8
|
0.5
|
|
DEN
|
13
|
13
|
0.0
|
|
DET
|
5.5
|
7
|
(1.5)
|
|
GB
|
9.5
|
8
|
1.5
|
|
HOU
|
7
|
2
|
5.0
|
|
IND
|
11
|
11
|
0.0
|
|
JAC
|
3
|
4
|
(1.0)
|
|
KC
|
6.5
|
11
|
(4.5)
|
|
MIA
|
7.5
|
8
|
(0.5)
|
|
MIN
|
7.5
|
5
|
2.5
|
|
NE
|
12
|
12
|
0.0
|
|
NO
|
9
|
11
|
(2.0)
|
|
NYG
|
7.5
|
7
|
0.5
|
|
NYJ
|
7
|
8
|
(1.0)
|
|
OAK
|
4
|
4
|
0.0
|
|
PHI
|
7
|
10
|
(3.0)
|
|
PIT
|
8
|
8
|
0.0
|
|
SD
|
8
|
9
|
(1.0)
|
|
SEA
|
12
|
13
|
(1.0)
|
|
SF
|
11.5
|
12
|
(0.5)
|
|
STL
|
7
|
7
|
0.0
|
|
TB
|
5.5
|
4
|
1.5
|
|
TEN
|
6.5
|
7
|
(0.5)
|
|
WAS
|
6.5
|
3
|
3.5
|
*Positive numbers in the variance column represent teams
that SMI would be bullish on this year while negative numbers represent bearish
teams
TEAMS THAT COULD
IMPROVE BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bullish squads)
- Atlanta Falcons to 8 wins: really dropped off a cliff last year down to 4 wins after some very tough early season losses that seemed to snowball quickly. Before last year the Falcons had averaged 11.2 wins per year since QB Matt Ryan took over in 2008 including a floor of 9 wins. At the moment my calibrated wins model has the Falcons going 8-8 although they do face a tough schedule that is ranked 7th overall using my power ratings (8th toughest road & 11th toughest home) including facing the AFC & NFC North. My models also expect an improvement to their TOM, the SMI is +4.5 and they should enjoy better luck with injuries.
- Houston Texans to 6 wins: before last year’s 2-14 mark they had not won fewer than 6 games since 2005. There is still a ton of talent on this roster & although a coaching change was made to Bill O’Brien he has been successful at all prior stops including his only head coaching experience at Penn State the last couple years. Currently my calibrated wins model projects a 7-9 mark versus the weakest schedule in the NFL as measured by my power ratings (Important to note I say currently when specifically talking to calibrated wins model & SOS because they are completely driven by the power rating I apply to each team, which is fluid & not only could change before the season starts due to injury or other reasons but they shift weekly during the season). Houston suffered through the worst YOY change in TOM last season at a whopping (32) – that will no doubt improve. Considering the Texans were 21st in my performance ratings last year vs. the 10th toughest schedule, a weak division, the top SMI in the NFL at +5.0 & a new voice in the room with O’Brien I feel they should easily top this 6 win mark.
- Washington Redskins to 7 wins: despite winning 10 games & the NFC East in RG3’s rookie season of 2012 the Skins struggled mightily in 2013 going just 3-13 leading to the firing of Head Coach Mike Shanahan. That by itself should give a boost to Washington as there was a clear dysfunctional relationship between he & his prized QB – in comes Jay Gruden who has no NFL head coaching experience but has been an OC with modest success. The Skins had the 3rd worst YOY change in TOM last year which should improve this season & currently my calibrated wins model projects an 8-8 mark in 2014. Their SOS based on my current power ratings checks in at 26th in the NFL (18th on road & 28th at home) – easiest in their division, while the SMI is bullish as well at a +3.5.
I have discussed three teams I feel will improve by the 4+
wins – what 2 or 3 other teams would you add to that list to round out your
likely candidates? Which teams would you
remove from my list & who would you replace them with? Leave comments here, email me or discuss on
Twitter!
TEAMS THAT COULD
WORSEN BY 4+ WINS THIS YEAR (Bearish squads)
- Arizona Cardinals to 6 wins: this coming year the Cardinals will face the 2nd toughest schedule in the NFL largely because they reside in the toughest division in football, but also driven by the fact they are playing the strong AFC West & the “no team is awful” NFC East. In addition to their SOS their QB is still Carson Palmer whom many believe played well last year but according to my performance ratings their offense was just 19th in the NFL including 25th in rushing offense & 30th in INT’s thrown as a % of pass attempts. With St. Louis improving & their other two divisional rivals remaining Super Bowl threats ARI is due for a dip this season – how far is yet to be determined but I feel they are amongst the handful of most likely to worsen by 4+ games.
- Cincinnati Bengals to 7 wins: we have all likely seen the stat that each year we can expect to see approximately 5 new playoff teams – well that is a big reason the Bengals made the cut here unfortunately. Cincy has improved each of the last 3 seasons going from just 4 wins in 2010 to 9, 10 & 11 the last three – but this could be the year we see a step back. How fragile is Andy Dalton mentally is one big question after playing so badly in the playoffs once again. Their schedule does not appear to be a killer checking in at #23 overall but they will face the toughest amongst their divisional rivals; with Baltimore & Pittsburgh both coming off a season where they missed the playoffs, and Cleveland improving a ton not only with their on field play last year but their paper game this past offseason (sans the behavior of stud WR Josh Gordon) this could be the season the Bengals struggle & Marvin Lewis’ job is in danger. Their defense ranked #2 in my models last year but that was versus the 26th toughest schedule of opponent offenses – this year their opponent offenses will definitely be up a modest amount with the likes of New England & Denver (both of whom they did play last year), hungry Baltimore & Pittsburgh along with the NFC South juggernauts like Atlanta, New Orleans & Carolina.
- Indianapolis Colts to 7 wins: hard to argue with Indy’s success since the decision to let QB Peyton Manning walk away & draft QB Andrew Luck – the Colts have gone 11-5 & reached the playoffs in each of the last two seasons; the question is how much of that success was smoke & mirrors vs. statistically playing to a combined 22-10 mark? According to my models no team has overachieved as much in these last two years as Indy – and frankly it’s not very close. Last year they checked in at #16 in my performance rankings vs. the 17th toughest schedule – an exactly average team by both measurements, suggesting precisely an 8-8 team. Their 2014 schedule will be tough as outside their own division they will not have 1 truly “gimme” win facing Denver, New England, AFC North & NFC East. After not doing much of anything to improve their roster this past offseason, enjoying many lucky bounces over the last two years including last year’s playoff win against Kansas City and management in a bit of disarray with the personal problems their owner faced this offseason the Colts are ripe to dip in 2014.
There are my top 3 teams I feel are most likely to drop in
wins this season – would you change any?
If so who? Which squads would you
add to that list knowing we are likely to see another three or so also drop by
4 or more wins in 2014?
This analysis is very interesting as it seems difficult to
imagine 12 or so of these scenarios unfolding in 2014, yet we see it year after
year after year. I always find it best
to use the upcoming season’s SOS (using my current power ratings instead of
last year’s records like the general media uses), looking back on what drove a
team’s success or failure the year & comparing these win totals to what
Vegas offers before identifying solid candidates to fit the premise.
Thanks again for reading the initial NFL 2014 season installment. In the coming weeks more statistical based
analysis will be presented as we look back at what we learned in 2013 & how
to apply those theories for the upcoming season.
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