Tuesday, July 15, 2014

MLB 2014: All Star Break Analysis



The MLB All Star break is upon us meaning we are now 3 full weeks into our “official” MLB selections implementing the trio of models mentioned on our website:

  • Efficiency measured in runs scored & runs allowed
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Pitching performance
We posted MLB selections very successfully via Twitter during the months of April & May (56-42 57.1% +$1,383 on all $100 wagers) – which prompted to apply these models as the basis for selections over the last 3 weeks of action – the only selections we are recording official records for despite posting big profits on plays posted to Twitter earlier in the year.
One of the new analyses we use measures each teams actual runs scored & allowed versus what we expect each team to post in those categories based on statistical performance (essentially measuring how efficient each team is during critical game spots).  Based on that run margin we use a Pythagorean Theorem for MLB to project what each team’s record would be if they were all working at maximum efficiency – this is exactly the same type of analysis we used in a recently posted article about the NFL where we valued TOM for each team, removed that impact on their points margin, and slid each team into a new fully efficient record based on true statistical performance.  

Here is what the standings & playoff seeding would look like for each division, starting first with the American League:






P WINS
P LOSSES
+ / -

TBR
52
45
(8)

BAL
49
45
3

TOR
50
46
(1)

NYY
44
50
3

BOS
44
51
(1)






DET
53
38
0

CHW
48
48
(3)

CLE
46
48
1

KCR
46
48
2

MIN
43
51
1






OAK
61
34
(2)

LAA
60
34
(3)

SEA
54
41
(3)

HOU
41
55
(1)

TEX
36
59
2







CURRENT PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
#1 SEED
OAK


#2 SEED
DET


#3 SEED
TBR


WC #1
LAA


WC #2
SEA



Clearly there are a few discussion points but perhaps not as many as expected.  Right off the bat we can mention the AL West projected standings are in the precise order the actual standings are INCLUDING both Wild Card teams being LAA & SEA in all scenarios.  In the AL Central the first place Tigers are at top, 3rd place Indians & the last place Twins are static in both scenarios; the only variance comes from the White Sox & Royals who have flip flopped in my model – but in the actual standings there is just a 3 win difference between the two teams, while in my model it’s down to a 2 win variance – nothing significant & it could “fix” itself as early as this weekend’s series’.  The AL East has the most surprising breakdown without question: last place BOS is the same in both scenarios, and the order of BAL, TOR, and NYY are also identical – but the biggest standout in the AL comes from the Rays who jump from 4th in actual standings to projected tops in the division using my model.  TB has the biggest win variance of any team in MLB as they currently have won 8 less games than I project, even including their recent 13-5 run to close before the ASB.  Why do the Rays have such a huge variance?  Most of their inefficiency comes from their offense which has scored approximately 35 less runs this season than their statistics suggest they should have (that mark is 3rd worst in MLB).  If the Rays can find timelier hitting come the last two plus months of the season they could certainly find themselves in the mix for an AL East title, especially considering this is the weakest division in the American League this season.

Next up let’s take the same look at the National League:






P WINS
P LOSSES
+ / -

WSN
52
41
(1)

ATL
50
45
2

NYM
47
48
(2)

MIA
44
50
0

PHI
42
53
0






STL
53
43
(1)

PIT
51
44
(2)

CIN
51
44
0

MIL
51
45
2

CHC
47
47
(7)






LAD
56
41
(2)

SFG
51
45
1

COL
47
49
(7)

ARI
42
54
(2)

SDP
39
56
2







CURRENT PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
#1 SEED
LAD


#2 SEED
WSN


#3 SEED
STL


WC #1
PIT


WC #2
CIN



The NL East is the same as the AL West in that my model projects all teams in their same spot as actual standings.  My model has the top two teams in the NL West identical to actual standings, while the bottom three are in a slightly different order with COL being the big standout – the Rockies have won 7 less games than expected this season!  Similar to TB but not exactly the same they lead MLB in offensive inefficiency scoring a whopping 38 runs less than their statistics suggest, a tough pill to swallow for a Rockies team that must excel offensively due to a weak pitching staff & their home park.  Amazingly COL has allowed the exact # of runs their statistics suggest which is worst in MLB on an actual basis & 2nd to TEX on an adjusted efficiency basis.  The NL Central is very strong in actuality & my model – of the five teams in the division my model has 4 projected as above .500 teams currently & the fifth, CHC, projected to be exactly .500 – very strong top to bottom, which may wind up working against the possibility both NL Wild Card teams could come from that division.  The Cubs match the Rockies as far as inefficiency goes as they have won 7 less games than their statistics suggest – but unlike the other two big variance teams TB & COL the Cubs inefficiency has come in their runs allowed, yielding 28 more runs which is 2nd in MLB to LAA.  With recent moves made by GM Theo Epstein & a better than many believe performance so far this season the Cubs could be priming themselves to get back in the mix here in a year or two, despite this division being one of the toughest if not the toughest in all of baseball.  One interesting team is MIL, who have cut their projected wins variance down to 2 recently after reaching 6 games above earlier this month, which was the highest of any team since the early stages of this season.  On July 3rd I tweeted the Brewers were due for a big time correction as their actual record was far greater than their statistics suggested – since that day they went 2-8, closing with a big win over STL to avoid the sweep Sunday at home.  Those Brewers, Reds, Cardinals & Pirates seem to be heading towards a September to remember with two and possibly three playoff spots up for grabs.


Thanks for taking in one of my few MLB articles posted here.  Looking forward to a very strong next 6 weeks of baseball action leading us into football season!  Stop by, grab a package & build that bankroll for the Fall!



Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014

No comments:

Post a Comment