Sunday, April 20, 2014

NBA 2013-2014: Performance Ratings & Power Ratings FINAL FOR REGULAR SEASON





OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL
Team
SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK

SUM
RANK
Minnesota
36
2

53
10

89
1
Oklahoma City
48
8

43
5

91
2
L.A. Clippers
34
1

59
17

93
3
Portland
36
2

57
14

93
3
Houston
37
4

58
16

95
5
San Antonio
64
15

35
2

99
6
Memphis
58
13

44
8

102
7
Toronto
47
6

56
13

103
8
Charlotte
68
18

38
4

106
9
Chicago
76
24

33
1

109
10
Golden State
69
20

43
5

112
11
Indiana
79
26

36
3

115
12
Phoenix
47
6

68
18

115
12
Washington
73
22

43
5

116
14
Cleveland
66
17

53
10

119
15
Sacramento
49
9

72
19

121
16
Miami
65
16

57
14

122
17
Dallas
51
10

78
24

129
18
Denver
57
12

73
21

130
19
Atlanta
80
27

52
9

132
20
New Orleans
45
5

90
28

135
21
Detroit
56
11

81
25

137
22
New York
61
14

77
23

138
23
Orlando
84
29

55
12

139
24
Brooklyn
68
18

72
19

140
25
Boston
81
28

75
22

156
26
L.A. Lakers
78
25

85
26

163
27
Utah
73
22

91
29

164
28
Milwaukee
71
21

95
30

166
29
Philadelphia
103
30

88
27

191
30
               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points.  Last key item of note is these ratings weight each stat equally, where below in my projected wins & power ratings they are properly weighted to their impact based on statistical testing.  Using an equal weight for each statistic can add a lot of value to your handicapping efforts when properly applied.

For this final version let’s add a matrix that shows where each team ranked in the above non-weighted performance ratings throughout different points of the season:










ASB




19-Dec
26-Dec
2-Jan
9-Jan
15-Jan
23-Jan
27-Jan
2-Feb
9-Feb
13-Feb
5-Mar
20-Mar
FINAL
Atlanta
12
12
9
16
15
10
14
15
17
17
17
21
20
Boston
25
26
26
27
28
27
27
27
27
26
26
26
26
Brooklyn
23
24
24
21
24
22
22
22
22
22
23
23
25
Charlotte
7
5
9
9
10
9
10
10
11
12
10
11
9
Chicago
16
15
11
13
10
12
13
11
10
8
9
11
10
Cleveland
26
22
22
20
21
19
18
20
21
21
15
13
15
Dallas
21
20
20
24
22
23
23
20
20
18
22
20
18
Denver
10
12
17
10
9
13
11
14
14
15
19
18
19
Detroit
13
10
16
22
19
16
20
18
15
13
16
16
22
Golden State
18
19
12
13
12
13
15
12
12
10
10
8
11
Houston
9
9
8
7
8
7
7
6
4
6
3
5
5
Indiana
1
1
2
2
2
3
5
7
7
7
6
8
12
LA Clippers
8
7
4
5
6
6
5
5
5
5
3
2
3
LA Lakers
27
27
28
26
26
26
26
26
26
26
28
27
27
Memphis
19
18
13
11
12
10
9
9
9
10
12
8
7
Miami
16
11
14
13
18
19
17
19
22
22
19
19
17
Milwaukee
29
29
29
30
30
30
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
Minnesota
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
New Orleans
11
17
15
19
19
21
18
17
17
16
21
22
21
New York
22
24
25
24
23
25
24
24
24
24
25
24
23
Okla City
4
3
7
5
3
4
4
2
3
4
2
3
2
Orlando
25
23
23
23
25
24
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
Philadelphia
28
27
27
28
27
28
29
29
29
30
30
30
30
Phoenix
20
20
18
18
16
13
12
13
13
14
13
13
12
Portland
7
6
5
4
3
4
3
4
2
2
5
3
3
Sacramento
14
12
18
11
12
17
21
23
19
20
18
13
16
San Antonio
7
3
6
8
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
6
6
Toronto
4
8
3
3
3
2
2
2
5
2
6
6
8
Utah
30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
28
28
Washington
17
15
21
16
17
18
16
16
15
18
13
16
14

Next up let’s take a closer look at the above matrices, and provide some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or lower than their final record.

Minnesota: the Timberwolves have been ranked #1 for 12 of the 13 editions we published including each of the last 12 since Christmas.  Why did a mere 40-42 team rate so highly?  The answer is very simple – Minnesota was very solid in all categories that comprise this analysis besides the biggest one on each side of the ball: Effective FG%.  The Wolves were ranked 21st offensively & 27th defensively in that area, which is the most heavily weighted statistic when using linear regression as I do below.

Portland & Houston: these teams are matching up in the opening round of the Western Conference playoffs, and were ranked tied for 3rd & 5th respectively in these ratings – very solid obviously.  Both teams had Top 4 offenses and mid ranked defenses – look for a lot of points, with turnovers (especially for Houston both sides of the floor) & offensive rebounding being key drivers to the winner of this series.

Western Conference: of the 15 teams in the conference 7 rated #1 thru #7 here, and just 2 rated amongst the bottom 9 teams – shows how strong that conference is.

Toronto, Charlotte & Chicago: here is a trio of teams we made a lot of cash backing this season, and they check in at #8, #9 & #10 overall – the top 3 teams in the Eastern Conference.  Although they are the top 3 teams in the conference using the equally weighted method they slip in the linear weighted model because of average to poor EFG%, especially offensively.  These teams, especially the latter two, are best known for their work on the defensive end – which is where they will no question need to excel in order to advance in the playoffs.

Brooklyn: the Nets check in at #25, easily the lowest rated team in the playoffs this season – even the lowly Hawks are ranked #20!  What does it all mean?  Brooklyn is very much a middle of the road team AT BEST when using full regular season statistics as even their EFG% numbers are middle of the pack – and they frankly do not excel in any one area besides possibly defensive pressure/forcing turnovers (which was assisted by the Livingston addition to the starting lineup in early calendar year 2014) and getting to the FT line offensively – both areas they leveraged to pick up a win in Toronto in Game One.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:


HOME
ROAD

Power Rating
Power Rating
L.A. Clippers
117.0
113.0
San Antonio
116.2
112.7
Miami
116.0
112.5
Golden State
115.5
112.5
Oklahoma City
116.2
112.2
Dallas
114.7
111.7
Toronto
114.3
111.3
Phoenix
114.2
111.2
Washington
113.3
110.8
Houston
114.5
110.5
Memphis
113.1
110.1
Indiana
113.7
109.7
Minnesota
112.2
109.7
New York
111.6
109.6
Portland
112.7
109.2
Charlotte
111.9
108.9
Chicago
111.8
108.8
Brooklyn
110.9
107.9
New Orleans
110.3
107.8
Detroit
109.5
107.5
Atlanta
109.6
107.1
Denver
109.4
106.9
Cleveland
108.8
106.8
Sacramento
108.6
106.6
Boston
108.5
106.5
Orlando
106.5
104.5
L.A. Lakers
105.6
103.6
Utah
105.4
103.4
Milwaukee
105.2
103.2
Philadelphia
102.0
100.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.  

Keep in mind however that when the playoffs commence ratings become more hyper-sensitive to variance in performance, and are adjusted slightly from what you see above.  But these can still be used as a solid estimate – let’s take a look at projected lines for Game One of each series versus the actual line posted in Vegas:

[#1] PACERS       -6.5       [#8] hawks                          Vegas line: -8                     Variance: 1.5 points
[#2] HEAT            -7            [#7] bobcats                       Vegas line: -9.5                 Variance: 2.5 points
[#3] RAPTORS    -6.5        [#6] nets                           Vegas line: -3.5                 Variance: (3.0) points
[#4] BULLS          -1            [#5] wizards                       Vegas line: -4.5                 Variance: 3.5 points

[#1] SPURS         -4.5        [#8] mavericks                  Vegas line: -9.5                 Variance: 5.0 points
[#2] THUNDER   -6            [#7] grizzlies                     Vegas line: -8                     Variance: 2.0 points
[#3] CLIPPERS    -4.5        [#6] warriors                      Vegas line: -7.5                 Variance: 3.0 points
[#4] ROCKETS    -5.5        [#5] blazers                      Vegas line: -5                     Variance: (0.5) points


What initially really jumps off the page is the fact 6 of the 8 lines (and another is just 0.5 points below & may still move on Sunday to positive territory) are HIGHER on the favorite in Vegas compared to my ratings - which makes perfect sense since Vegas routinely adjusts odds on favorites up based on the public typically backing the favorites.  For Saturday’s games my ratings suggested plays on Hawks, Raptors, Grizzlies & Warriors – 3 of 4 underdogs; the pair of 3pt variances split while the two smaller variance plays also split.  However, remember, line value is only one small piece of the handicapping puzzle – and unlike the regular season there are small adjustments made to these ratings in the playoffs designed to further accentuate the performance fluctuation by team.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: ATS Win %, Final Wins, Regression Wins.  Also we will examine the variance between actual & regression wins:


ATS WIN %

FINAL ACTUAL WINS

REGRESS WINS

ACTUAL - REGRESS WINS

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK

Wins
RANK
L.A. Clippers
0.568
4

57.0
3

59.4
1

(2.4)
21
San Antonio
0.549
5

62.0
1

56.8
2

5.2
9
Miami
0.463
24

54.0
5

56.4
3

(2.4)
20
Golden State
0.519
10

51.0
8

55.0
4

(4.0)
15
Oklahoma City
0.538
6

59.0
2

54.3
5

4.7
11
Dallas
0.537
7

49.0
10

51.4
6

(2.4)
22
Toronto
0.582
3

48.0
11

49.6
7

(1.6)
25
Phoenix
0.642
1

48.0
11

49.0
8

(1.0)
27
Washington
0.531
9

44.0
14

48.7
9

(4.7)
12
Houston
0.500
13

54.0
5

48.4
10

5.6
6
Memphis
0.456
25

50.0
9

48.2
11

1.8
24
Indiana
0.469
20

56.0
4

47.1
12

8.9
2
Minnesota
0.476
18

40.0
17

45.4
13

(5.4)
7
New York
0.463
23

37.0
19

43.9
14

(6.9)
4
Portland
0.537
7

54.0
5

43.5
15

10.5
1
Charlotte
0.595
2

43.0
16

42.4
16

0.6
28
Chicago
0.506
12

48.0
11

42.3
17

5.7
5
Brooklyn
0.512
11

44.0
14

40.4
18

3.6
17
New Orleans
0.487
17

34.0
21

37.7
19

(3.7)
16
Detroit
0.432
29

29.0
23

37.6
20

(8.6)
3
Atlanta
0.469
20

38.0
18

36.2
21

1.8
23
Denver
0.476
18

36.0
20

35.4
22

0.6
29
Cleveland
0.488
15

33.0
22

34.3
23

(1.3)
26
Sacramento
0.468
22

28.0
24

30.7
24

(2.7)
19
Boston
0.488
16

25.0
26

28.1
25

(3.1)
18
Orlando
0.430
30

23.0
28

27.5
26

(4.5)
14
L.A. Lakers
0.500
13

27.0
25

21.8
27

5.2
10
Utah
0.434
28

25.0
26

20.4
28

4.6
13
Milwaukee
0.444
26

15.0
30

20.3
29

(5.3)
8
Philadelphia
0.439
27

19.0
29

19.5
30

(0.5)
30

The first column ATS Win % is not only impacted by actual team performance but also certainly by other factors that are tough to measure but we know they exist such as expectations & public teams.  Team expectations at the beginning of the season certainly plays a critical role in ATS performance because perceived “good” teams people will continually wait on if they start slow (New York), while perceived “bad” teams people will continually wait and/or bet on to flounder after a hot start which sometimes doesn’t occur (Phoenix).  We also see teams such as Miami who checks in at #24 in ATS performance largely driven by the fact they are more actively managing the regular season grind compared to most other teams, with a clear eye on winning another championship.  Understanding these largely unmeasurable variables is absolutely critical to having success betting on the NBA because the season is such a long grind, and emotional levels, lineups, injuries, motivation and other human behaviors are key in the NBA compared to say the NFL where every team plays once per week and is typically motivated equally.

Perhaps the most critical piece of this final NBA analysis entry of the season is the far right column.  As a reminder let’s define regression wins: this figure represents how many games a team is projected to win based on their performance in specific statistical categories I have defined (with help from many other books & intelligent NBA executives) as having the greatest impact on winning games, properly weighted using linear regression.  The statistics & weights will remain for my eyes only as that is proprietary, but we can discuss the results in some detail that will provide insight into my process to the astute reader.  One item of note is the rank column for the actual minus regression wins metric uses absolute values of the variances to better represent which teams were furthest or closest to actual wins.  Based on this metric let’s take a closer look at the playoff teams from each conference, and possibly identify teams that are over or under valued based on their true statistical performance this season.  In total of the 16 playoff teams 10 posted a record better than their true performance suggested (5 in each conference) – but who has the biggest variances?  

CHECK BACK TOMORROW FOR A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF EACH PLAYOFF SERIES.


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