First let’s dissect the Western Conference:
ACTUAL
|
REGRESS
|
VARIANCE
|
|
WEST
|
Wins
|
Wins
|
Wins
|
San Antonio
|
62.0
|
56.8
|
5.2
|
Oklahoma City
|
59.0
|
54.3
|
4.7
|
L.A. Clippers
|
57.0
|
59.4
|
(2.4)
|
Houston
|
54.0
|
48.4
|
5.6
|
Portland
|
54.0
|
43.5
|
10.5
|
Golden State
|
51.0
|
55.0
|
(4.0)
|
Memphis
|
50.0
|
48.2
|
1.8
|
Dallas
|
49.0
|
51.4
|
(2.4)
|
First Round matchups
#1 San Antonio vs.
#8 Dallas: according to this matrix (and many of the other metrics
& statistics throughout this analysis also support this thought) Dallas and
San Antonio only had a 5.4 game difference in projected record (Spurs were 2nd
in NBA while Dallas was 6th in projected record) – significantly
less than the actual 13 games difference their records indicate. With the Spurs, similar to the Heat, we do
have to mentally/qualitatively adjust their statistical performance based on
the fact they often rest players during the season, and typically start each
year off slower than others teams since they are an aging team and winning
another championship is of the utmost importance to their franchise. Despite this smaller than expected variance
the Spurs are a MUCH better team defensively, especially EFG% as they check in
at #2 in the NBA while the Mavericks are just #24. Unless Dallas significantly ups their
defensive performance – which would lead to exposing some of the weaknesses of
the Spurs like offensive rebounding – San Antonio should not have much of a
problem disposing of Dallas – but the opening lines on these games might be a
touch high even though the Spurs are much like the Patriots in the NFL – seems
a good idea to either play on them or pass; fading them is very tough.
#2 Oklahoma City
vs. #7 Memphis: the Grizzlies have been one of the hottest teams in the
NBA since the calendar turned to 2014, and did beat the Thunder in last year’s
Western Conference semifinal round – but do they have a decent shot at pulling
of the upset in back to back years?
Remember Russell Westbrook was injured in the first round of the 2013
playoffs and did not play in these teams meeting last May. Both teams overachieved record wise compared
to what their regression based record suggested – especially the Thunder
checking in at +4.7 despite Westbrook missing extended action this winter. Both of these teams are strong defensively
checking in at 5th & 8th respectively – but there is
a big discrepancy between offensive EFG% with OKC having the edge as the 6th
best in the league vs. Memphis rating 18th. Since Memphis is one of the worst teams in
the league at getting to the FT line, and because the Thunder have revenge on
their minds in this series, I do not see many ways the Grizzlies take this
series deep despite their recent hot run – and despite what some media analysts
believe. They just are not efficient
enough offensively, and OKC’s defense is underrated.
#3 LA Clippers vs.
#6 Golden State: this heated rivalry features a pair of underachieving
teams as our model projected 59.4 wins for the Clippers (57 actual) & 55.0
wins for the Warriors (51 actual) which would have checked them in at 1st
and 4th in the entire NBA respectively. Many certainly do not realize how solid the
Warriors play defense as they are ranked 3rd in the NBA in EFG% defensively,
while the Clippers are also a solid 5th. Both offenses also have top 8 EFG%’s,
however, their defense in that metric is better than their offense – suggesting
unders may be solid plays here especially with the higher totals posted &
the public generally backing the over between these two teams. The biggest edge between these teams and the
possible deciding factor may be the frequency each team reaches the FT line:
LAC are 2nd in the league while GS is a miserable 28th –
which puts more pressure on the Warriors shooting, which often isn’t a good
thing especially how perimeter based they are.
In Game One LA shot 10 more FT’s (and almost hit that well known mark of
making more FT’s than your opponent attempts 23 to 25 yesterday) but still took
the loss. It’s likely the lines on these
games are too inflated on the Clippers side – look for a closely contested
series between two of the better teams in the NBA.
#4 Houston vs. #5
Portland: this is a meeting between the two most overachieving clubs in
the Western Conference as the 4th seeded Rockets won 5.6 more games
than my model suggests & the 5th seeded Blazers won an
incredible 10.5 more games than their statistical performance suggested! Truly amazing how many “extra” games these
teams managed to win despite numerous injuries during the season to key players
like Dwight Howard & Lamarcus Aldridge.
These teams are very identical in many of the statistical areas I track
and use for my ratings, but like many of the matchups discussed above one team
has the significant edge offensively – and that is Houston. Not only is Houston 3rd in
offensive EFG% they also get to the line the most of any team in the league –
which gives them flexibility in scoring points if they are having an off night
from the field. Their only weakness is
turnovers where they rate worst in the NBA – but unfortunately for Portland
they rate worst in the NBA defensively in forcing turnovers – so this seems to
be a bad matchup for the Blazers.
Considering how poor Portland plays in the playoffs annually, how they
should have been closer to a .500 team vs. winning 50+, and how the statistics
matchup between these two squads, I see a significant edge for the Rockets here
– and barring injuries do not see many scenarios where they would lose this
series.
Now let’s take a look at the Eastern Conference:
ACTUAL
|
REGRESS
|
VARIANCE
|
|
EAST
|
Wins
|
Wins
|
Wins
|
Indiana
|
56.0
|
47.1
|
8.9
|
Miami
|
54.0
|
56.4
|
(2.4)
|
Toronto
|
48.0
|
49.6
|
(1.6)
|
Chicago
|
48.0
|
42.3
|
5.7
|
Washington
|
44.0
|
48.7
|
(4.7)
|
Brooklyn
|
44.0
|
40.4
|
3.6
|
Charlotte
|
43.0
|
42.4
|
0.6
|
Atlanta
|
38.0
|
36.2
|
1.8
|
First Round Matchups
#1 Indiana vs. #8
Atlanta: right off the bat the number that sticks out in the entire
Eastern Conference is the Pacers winning 8.9 more games than my model suggests
their statistics say they earned – big red flag there, as if they needed
another big red flag against them with how poor they have played down the
stretch. According to the regression
model the Pacers were the 4th best team in the East, and their play
over their last 30 games or so certainly supports that thesis. The only positive for the Pacers is they are
facing a Hawks team that posted a terrible 38-44 regular season mark, which
should have been 36-46 according to my model – one of the worst team’s record
wise to ever reach the playoffs. This
matchup will likely come down to can the Hawks score consistently enough
against the #1 EFG% defense in the NBA?
The Pacers are solid across the board defensively – which may be enough
to get them past the Hawks, but any further there will be significant
resistance. Expect a lot of low scoring
games between these squads in a series that is likely to go deeper and be more
competitive than any Pacers fan thought was possible earlier this season.
#2 Miami vs. #7
Charlotte: Miami was just 2.4 wins short of their expected total, while
the Bobcats were right on their number – keep in mind like the Spurs above the
Heat routinely sat players during the season to give them rest as their aging
stars look to win their third straight championship. Charlotte is one of the worst shooting teams
in the NBA amongst playoff teams, while Miami is the best – having such
extremes in such a critical statistic doesn’t bode well the for the
Bobcats. And that is really the
determining factor in this series – not only do the Heat own the Bobcats since
Lebron James came to South Beach, but they also have all the playoff experience
and can score much easier than the Bobcats can.
I have been riding the Charlotte train a lot this season, and would have
given them a shot against any other team in the Eastern Conference besides
Miami. The Heat, again like the Spurs,
know how valuable time off can be, so look for them to make short work of
Charlotte – 5 games max.
#3 Toronto vs. #6
Brooklyn: in actuality there is only a 4 win difference between these
two squads, but my regression model suggests their records were closer to 10
games difference according to their performance in my statistical package. Like many of the other aging, veteran teams
discussed above, the Nets certainly lost a TON of starter games due to injury
or rest – which should be accounted for – as should their dearth of playoff
experience, especially when compared to the Raptors. That certainly slims the record margin down a
lot – but statistically speaking the Raptors played better this season, and
were another team we cashed with early & often this NBA year. Almost the entire variance between these two
teams projected wins was driven by their rebounding numbers – with the Raptors
enjoying a clear edge, especially since the Nets lost Lopez for the season due
to injury. Despite that statistical edge
for the Raptors they will have to up their game more than that if they hope to
beat this veteran squad looking to make a deep run in the playoffs. Unless Toronto absolutely dominates the
glass, especially on the offensive end – which they didn’t accomplish in Game
One leading to a loss – Brooklyn is definitely the favorite here.
#4 Chicago vs. #5
Washington: this matchup features teams that are almost a mirror image
of each other according to the projected wins model – Chicago won 5.7 more
games than projected (48 vs. 42.3) while Washington won 4.7 fewer games than
projected (44 vs. 48.7) – so what does that mean? Well I think most have recognized the Bulls
have certainly overachieved this season – to my eye they struggled right after
losing Rose for the 2nd straight season because of the sheer shock
of another injury to their star player – but once they got over that, and
adjusted their playing style, they excelled.
Washington on the other hand surprisingly won 44 games this season, and
probably to the surprise of many people should have won closer to 49 according
to my model – which was actually a higher projection than Indiana. Many of the stats I track in my model are
very close between these teams as their net EFG% is almost 0.00 for both teams
(although Washington shoots a higher % they also allow a higher %), but the
biggest difference is turnovers.
Washington, with John Wall has a big edge at the PG spot and taking care
of the basketball compared to the Derrick Rose-less Bulls. This series will likely go deep and come down
to can Chicago take care of the basketball AND get to the FT line enough to
support their weakness from the field.
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