Denver Broncos: Denver made the biggest splash this offseason as they were able to land their man, one of the best QBs of all time Peyton Manning to lead the orange and blue for the next handful of seasons. With a playoff win under their belts from a year ago, and a massive upgrade at the all important QB position, Super Bowl goals are the theme at Dove Valley this spring and summer. However, the schedule is not going to make those goals easily achievable as their opponents rank tied for first using my blended 2011 figures, and #10 using 2012 initial power ratings. One thing however that may help some is the fact according to my 2012 initial numbers they face the 22nd toughest road schedule vs. 4th toughest home schedule – so a lot of that opponents that are driving the strength of their schedule at least visit Mile High in 2012. They open with 3 of 4 at home, and close with 3 of 5 at home – nice bookends, but obviously will face a lot of road games during the middle portion of their schedule. They have one instance of back to back divisional games, Wks 11 & 12 where they host SD then travel to Arrowhead. The opening portion of the schedule, while heavy on home games, is also heavy on quality opponents as the first three games are vs. teams that finished in the top 8 of my performance stats last season – matter of fact, over their first ten games, they will not face a team that finished below #17 in those ratings, with five of them finishing in the top ten. Denver will face one team coming off a bye, Wk9 @ CIN – and that game comes on the heels of a trio @ NE, @ SD, NO – so that will not be an easy feat there. Along with expectations comes a lot of primetime games, and DEN is no slouch in that department with a pair of SNF & MNF contests, along with their TNF game. They open on SNF hosting PIT, then travel to ATL for the aforementioned MNF contest which shouldn’t impact them much, but their second SNF game in Wk8 hosting NO comes the week before travelling to face a fresh and rested CIN team in Wk9. Lastly, DEN also has 4 games this season set for 1pm kicks – which doesn’t help things either - but one or two could be flexed, with the leading possibility being the Wk15 trip to BAL. Overall the schedule has very tough opponents, and a tough, but not a killer layout. I expect DEN to win the AFC West for the second straight year in 2012.
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Kansas City Chiefs: new HC Romeo Crennel gets a second chance at succeeding as a HC, this time in KC – and he hopes to have all his key players that went down with injuries last season back and near 100% by the time Sunday September 9th rolls around. The Chiefs play 5 of their last 10 vs. division opponents, including two roadies in the last three weeks in OAK & DEN – a visit from the Colts is mixed in Wk16. KC does have more than the usual amount of back to back home or road tilts, including a 3 game home stand near middle of season: away games back to back – Wks 2&3, Wks 9&10, Wks 14&15; back to back (and one back to back to back) home games – Wks 4&5 & Wks 11-13. Of their four toughest games, three come early in the season in Wks 1, 3, 5 – with the lone outlier being a Wk10 MNF trip to PIT. With a schedule that is stacked towards the early portion like that it makes their injury situation that much more critical as they cannot dig too big a hole early on with the likes of DEN/Peyton Manning & SD/Philip Rivers residing in the division Over their last seven games they face no team that was ranked higher than 14 in my performance stats from a year ago. KC plays all 1pm games until after their Wk7 bye, with the first of three 4pm kicks in Wk8 (the other pair in Wks 15 & 17). Their lone TNF game follows their initial 4pm start in Wk9 @ SD, which cannot be considered too tough as it’s only their second game following their bye. Their lone MNF contest follows that trip to SD in Wk10, when they travel to PIT – which is followed by a home game vs. CIN. Not too tough a layout at all for KC. Overall although it is a strange layout in the sense of so many back to back games on road or at home, the schedule is manageable and if KC can get all their pieces back near 100% they could potentially challenge for a WC berth.
Oakland Raiders: the first thing that stands out with the Raiders schedule to me is the close – 3 of their last 4 are in the division, while the last five weeks features a home/away split of H/H/H/A/A. If OAK is in the mix heading into Wk14 they will clearly have control of their own destiny, but with closing games @ CAR then @ SD, it will certainly be an uphill battle – if Carson Palmer can even stay healthy enough to participate in those games. OAK also faces back to back weeks, 7&8, where they play teams coming off their bye week – hosting JAC and @ KC respectively. What also is a potentially devastating blow to their playoff chances is all the travel they will incur this season – the Raiders will play a massive 5 of their 8 road games in the Eastern time zone – and all those games as of now are scheduled to kick off at 10am Pacific time! Wow! Talk about a killer. Compare that to DEN that also will face 5 trips to the EDT, but only 3 of those games will kick at 1pm – and most likely at least the BAL game in Wk15 will be moved to a national game at 415pm, or possibly even flexed to SNF. That is really a tough break for any team especially team’s travelling west to east. On a good note, according to my 2011 & initial 2012 #’s, OAK does face the easiest schedule of all AFC West teams – and it is one of the easier in the entire NFL checking in at tied for 4th easiest using 2011 figures, and tied for 22nd using 2012 initial numbers. The one area of concern using 2012 however is the home/road split as their home slate is ranked an extremely manageable 28th in the league; but the road SOS is tied for 9th – combine the strength of road opponents with the travel and early starts, and that could very well spell disaster and a last place finish in the tightly packaged AFC West for the Raiders in 2012. As far as primetime games go, OAK opens on MNF hosting SD, then has to travel to MIA in Wk2 for a 1pm game – that will not be easy off the short week, in the heat of MIA during the early afternoon. Their lone TNF game is in Wk14 when they host DEN, and that comes off a home game vs. CLE.
Oakland Raiders: the first thing that stands out with the Raiders schedule to me is the close – 3 of their last 4 are in the division, while the last five weeks features a home/away split of H/H/H/A/A. If OAK is in the mix heading into Wk14 they will clearly have control of their own destiny, but with closing games @ CAR then @ SD, it will certainly be an uphill battle – if Carson Palmer can even stay healthy enough to participate in those games. OAK also faces back to back weeks, 7&8, where they play teams coming off their bye week – hosting JAC and @ KC respectively. What also is a potentially devastating blow to their playoff chances is all the travel they will incur this season – the Raiders will play a massive 5 of their 8 road games in the Eastern time zone – and all those games as of now are scheduled to kick off at 10am Pacific time! Wow! Talk about a killer. Compare that to DEN that also will face 5 trips to the EDT, but only 3 of those games will kick at 1pm – and most likely at least the BAL game in Wk15 will be moved to a national game at 415pm, or possibly even flexed to SNF. That is really a tough break for any team especially team’s travelling west to east. On a good note, according to my 2011 & initial 2012 #’s, OAK does face the easiest schedule of all AFC West teams – and it is one of the easier in the entire NFL checking in at tied for 4th easiest using 2011 figures, and tied for 22nd using 2012 initial numbers. The one area of concern using 2012 however is the home/road split as their home slate is ranked an extremely manageable 28th in the league; but the road SOS is tied for 9th – combine the strength of road opponents with the travel and early starts, and that could very well spell disaster and a last place finish in the tightly packaged AFC West for the Raiders in 2012. As far as primetime games go, OAK opens on MNF hosting SD, then has to travel to MIA in Wk2 for a 1pm game – that will not be easy off the short week, in the heat of MIA during the early afternoon. Their lone TNF game is in Wk14 when they host DEN, and that comes off a home game vs. CLE.
San Diego Chargers: the once dominant Chargers appear to be a shell of their former selves, as they head into a critical 2012 campaign for their HC Norv Turner, and QB Philip Rivers. SD has not quite achieved what they have been in position to do multiple times over the tenure of the aforementioned duo, and last year DEN won the division which was the second straight season SD did not after winning it 4 straight years and 5 of 6. Make no mistake, the pressure is truly on, the seat is nearly ablaze, and SD needs a big season here to avoid a potential rebuilding state. SD plays 3 of their first 6 before their bye week vs. divisional opponents, two of which are on the road – that doesn’t figure to be a good formula for a team that notoriously starts slow. They complete divisional play outside their closing game hosting OAK (whom they also open with) by Wk11 – and Wks 12-16 are chock full of strong, playoff type teams. They play a pair of back to back home and road games, evenly distributed. They also do not face any team’s coming off their bye week, another plus. And although they too have multiple trips to the east, they only have three games at 10am Pacific, with really no possibility of any of those games being flexed out of that time slot. They do face potentially cold weather games Wk14 @ PIT, and Wk16 @ NYJ as well. Like DEN they face 5 primetime games, 2 MNF & SNF along with 1 TNF. Their MNF games are placed nicely, opening @ OAK right up the road in Wk1, with a visit from TEN in Wk2 (extremely manageable). Their second MNF matchup comes in Wk6, off their first SNF game, right before their Wk7 bye. Coming off their bye they travel to CLE, followed by hosting KC on TNF (short week). Their last primetime game falls in Wk16 @ NYJ on SNF, which is sandwiched around a pair of home games vs. CAR & OAK, respectively. Overall this is not too bad of a slate of games, opponent or layout wise. SD expects to challenge for the AFC West title each year so long as Rivers is under center, and this year should be no different. The key pair of games vs. DEN will take place in Wk6 (right before their Wk7 bye week) when they host the Broncos on MNF, and the return trip to the Mile High city in Wk11.
Check back next week as we move to the NFC, starting with the NFC East.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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