Indianapolis Colts: for the first time in quite some time, the Colts franchise does not have an end goal of hoisting the Lombardi trophy as Peyton Manning is now in Denver, and Andrew Luck is taking over as the franchise leader. How does the schedule stack up for him? The first three contests of the season should help him get some confidence under his belt and perform well as they do not play a team that finished 2011 in the top 19 of my statistical performance ratings – but they unfortunately do pick up a bye in Wk4, which happens to be the first week team’s will have them. They do have a three game home stand sandwiched around that early season bye – Wk2 MIN, Wk3 JAC, Wk4 bye, Wk5 GB. In an odd scheduling twist they will not play HOU until travelling there in Wk15, with the return trip in IND Wk17. Three of their last four are vs. divisional foes (two of which are at home), with a trip to KC the other piece of that four game set. They also have two instances of back to back road games. Opponents wise I have them with the 3rd easiest schedule using last season’s metrics, and 4th easiest using current 2012 power ratings. As far as time slots go, there isn’t more continuity with any team in the entire NFL compared to IND – currently they only face one non 1pm start, their lone TNF game @ JAC in Wk10, which comes off a home game vs. MIA. Overall, this certainly is not a brutal schedule for Luck in his rookie season, and he does get a break of sorts with an early season 3 game home stand, and not facing the division favorite Texans till Wk15.
Tennessee Titans: the Titans schedule is tougher on the back end vs. early season, as after their bye in Wk11 they face 4 of their last 6 vs. divisional rivals, with a home game vs. NYJ and a trip to GB packaged in during Wks 15 & 16 respectively. Five of the first six weeks will feature tough opponents as all five were rated in the top 13 as far as my 2011 statistical performance rankings go – the only outlier is a Wk5 road trip to MIN. Overall they do not have any three game sets of home/road, and they also do not face any team’s coming off their bye week. I have their schedule rated #18 on blended 2011 numbers, and #20 on 2012 power ratings – so not too tough. What also isn’t too tough is they only have 3 non 1pm starts: Wk2 @ SD late afternoon, Wk6 hosting PIT on TNF, and Wk15 hosting NYJ on MNF. The short week for their TNF game comes off a trip to MIN, while they have to travel to GB in Wk16 following the MNF home game vs. NYJ. Even with what seems like a lot of favorability for their slate in 2012, it will still be an uphill battle for the Titans to make any noise, or get in position to make a run at the playoffs with that tough start where they could find themselves 1-5 thru 6 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars: the Jags schedule is rated #20 in my blended 2011 numbers, and #25 using my current 2012 power ratings – which should help them in their attempt to not have the worst record in the NFL this coming season – or are would that be a blessing in disguise having the #1 overall pick in the 2013 draft? I am extremely bearish on this team and franchise, as they fired a great head coach in my opinion Jack Del Rio this past offseason, and have a QB under center in Blaine Gabbert that is one of the worst QBs I have seen as an NFL starter in quite some time. To make matters worse, they drafted Justin Blackmon in the first round, who will not be able to help much with the terrible QB play Jacksonville gets on a weekly basis – not to mention his attitude will probably be extremely poor and do bad things for the team’s chemistry when things start going downhill, and he isn’t catching many passes. Schedule wise their division games are stacked a little odd: they close the regular season @ TEN; they play back to back in Wks 2&3; and play three straight Wks 10-12. That is not a prime split of those games for certain – in addition the Wk12 divisional contest hosting TEN comes as the Titans come off their bye week. They open and close on road, have a pair of back to back home games, and one set of back to back road games. Like most of the rest of their division, sans HOU, JAC is lacking in primetime games – only one night game, Wk10 at home vs. IND. They are scheduled to play a trio of late afternoon starts, all early in the season when the NFL tries to keep Florida games kicking off in the late slot due to temperature concerns.
Houston Texans: the Texans are a trendy Super Bowl pick at this point, and rightfully so in my opinion as well. The fact they play the easiest schedule according to my 2012 current power ratings, and the 4th easiest according to blended 2011 numbers will only help potentially reaching those goals. Not only do they face an easier schedule opponent wise, they do not play any back to back divisional contests, and only face one team coming off a bye when they host BUF in Wk9. On the flip side, their road games are bunched together in a challenging fashion as they play back to back roadies in Wk2&3, and play 3 straight roadies in Wks 12-14. Their bye week does come at a favorable time, Wk8, which is surrounded by a three game home stand – Wk6 GB, Wk7 BAL, Wk8 bye, Wk9 BUF. The early part of that home stand, along with the game before Wk5 @ NYJ is the toughest stretch of games they will face during the season. They close the season with three games they will be large favorites in vs. IND twice and hosting MIN – so if they can position themselves at 10-3 or so after 13 games they could be sitting quite nicely to grab home field advantage in the AFC. Another favorable tidbit is they also do not face many long road-trips, with the only medium range one being a trip to NE in Wk14. However, with all the projected success does come primetime action and HOU is currently scheduled for a pair of MNF & SNF games, along with their solo TNF matchup. Four of those five night games are on the road, which will not help winning those games, and is a serious disadvantage the following week with shorter preparation time. They do however face somewhat weaker teams off the last 3; although the brutal slate of @ NYJ MNF, hosting GB SNF, and hosting BAL early kickoff will be tough Wks 5-7. HOU will be front and center a lot this season, especially in an extremely watered down AFC South.
The AFC West will be featured by the end of the week.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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