Here is the initial installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2016-2017 season. As a reminder this model first uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas followed by filtering that data into a regression formula that properly weights the impact of each statistic before being finalized by an SOS adjustment. Here is where each team stands through Sunday April 9:
The “Projected Record” column is calculated by:
1. Taking a teams current record
2. Adding wins over remainder of the season based on their regression analysis of strength
*In my next article for "Projected Record" I will show, based on my model, what each team's true projected record is*
Taking an example from a current playoff projection my SBPI would have the Warriors favored by 13.5 over the Blazers in Oracle & laying 6.5 in Portland.
If the top rated team Golden State hosted the worst rated team Brooklyn the true line using SBPI would be GS -21.2; rarely would we see a line that high for numerous reasons but the key is understanding that line represents both teams playing their usual rotation for 48 minutes and having the same focus during all 48 minutes of said game. We know players often rest in the 4th quarter of blowout games hence why the actual line would not be that high, and hence why I never play favorites laying double digits as there are far too many "tough to calibrate" variables in play.
By examining the data in the above table you can also identify teams that have posted a better record than their stats project, and vice versa.
I will post another article towards the end of this week breaking down the playoff matchups.
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