Wednesday, November 13, 2013

NFL 2013: Week Ten Review



After ten weeks of action we still have the Denver Broncos leading the performance ratings, but have three teams just behind them followed by a huge drop-off to the 5th rated team Cincinnati.  Eight of the top twelve teams reside in the NFC including three of the top four.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80). 


OFFENSE

DEFENSE

TOTAL TEAM

Blended


Wins

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

Rating
Rank

SOS

TOM
8
DEN
56.1
1

41.9
12

97.9
1

29

(2)
7
NO
50.2
3

45.4
7

95.6
2

28

5
6
CAR
46.2
10

49.0
1

95.2
3

31

8
9
SEA
48.1
7

46.7
4

94.8
4

25

7
6
CIN
42.0
13

47.3
3

89.3
5

22

(4)
6
DET
48.9
5

40.1
19

89.0
6

18

1
9
KC
39.8
16

48.4
2

88.2
7

32

15
5
GB
51.1
2

36.9
24

87.9
8

11

(4)
2
HOU
42.0
13

44.9
8

86.9
9

7

(9)
6
SF
42.2
12

43.8
9

86.0
10

14

4
3
WAS
48.7
6

33.1
26

81.8
11

6

(1)
5
PHI
46.8
9

34.6
25

81.4
12

30

2
5
NYJ
34.1
27

46.6
5

80.7
13

26

(10)
6
IND
42.4
11

37.8
21

80.2
14

13

3
4
SD
49.2
4

31.0
29

80.2
14

23

(6)
5
CHI
48.0
8

31.6
27

79.6
16

10

8
7
NE
38.6
17

40.8
13

79.4
17

27

7
4
TEN
37.4
21

40.7
15

78.1
18

3

4
5
ARI
35.0
23

42.3
11

77.3
19

5

(1)
3
PIT
36.3
22

40.4
17

76.8
20

20

(11)
4
BAL
30.3
30

45.9
6

76.2
21

19

(3)
3
BUF
34.9
24

40.8
14

75.7
22

8

(1)
4
STL
38.2
20

37.5
22

75.6
23

24

5
4
CLE
32.3
29

42.4
10

74.8
24

21

(1)
4
MIA
34.2
26

40.4
17

74.7
25

16

0
3
OAK
34.8
25

39.6
20

74.3
26

9

(1)
5
DAL
39.8
15

31.6
28

71.4
27

18

11
3
NYG
29.7
31

40.7
15

70.3
28

5

(13)
1
TB
33.3
28

36.9
23

70.2
29

2

2
2
ATL
38.5
18

30.4
30

68.9
30

12

(6)
2
MIN
38.4
19

28.2
31

66.7
31

15

(4)
1
JAC
23.5
32

26.4
32

49.9
32

1

(5)

This week let’s examine some of the biggest outliers when it comes to record versus performance.  Dallas is easily the team that stands out the most as they rate just 27th but have posted a 5-5 mark to date.  We can see right off the bat their +11 TOM has been a critical driver to their success – they are 1-3 when they are even or negative in TOM compared to 4-2 when positive.  In addition they are 0-4 versus teams rated in the top 10 of the performance ratings compared to 5-1 facing teams sub top ten.  More specifically when examining their performance they are 0-4 when facing one of the top six pass offenses in the NFL.  It may remain an uphill battle for the Cowboys this season as their remaining schedule is ranked 6th overall including 7th versus passing offenses and 5th versus total offense.  Right behind the Cowboys in the overachieving column are the New England Patriots who check in at 17th in the ratings versus the 6th easiest schedule – but they have posted a 7-2 mark to date.  The Patriots offense rates just 17th in the NFL, behind the likes of Kansas City, Houston, San Francisco and Carolina to name a few.  That is not a good sign in today’s offense happy NFL, but even more so because the Patriots will face the toughest schedule of opponent defense over the final 7 weeks of the regular season – including the toughest schedule versus opponent pass defense, rush defense and miscellaneous defense!  To date they have faced the 12th toughest schedule of opponent defense, so expecting their offensive numbers to improve dramatically even after the demolition they put on the Steelers in their last outing may prove incorrect unless they continue to post a strong TOM.  On the flip side a team that may be undervalued some is Washington as they check in at #11 in the ratings, but because of an SOS rated #6, and a negative TOM they have just 3 wins on the season.  With the health of Griffin III improving by the week the offense has posted the 6th best rating to date; the defense has been the issue checking in at #26.  But there is reason for optimism, not only because the NFC East is not any good, but because to date they have faced the toughest schedule of opponent offenses; over their final 7 weeks of the season that number dramatically shifts to the 26th rated schedule of opponent offenses!  In addition to that note on SOS they also will face the easiest closing schedule in the NFL including 4 divisional contests and four home games.  Washington is 2-0 on the season when holding opponents to 26pts or less – which is a very modest point total – so keep an eye on the Skins as they attempt to defend their NFC East title.  The last potentially bullish teams I will examine here are the three 6 win teams that check in at #3, 5, and 6 in this week’s performance ratings.  The Panthers have been ranked in my top 3 teams the last four weeks, and been inside the top 8 the last seven weeks, but until last week’s win at SF they were not receiving much recognition.  Carolina was one of my top sleeper picks this summer, and has been even better than I expected posting a 6-3 mark along with the #1 defense in the NFL.  Over their final 7 games Carolina will face just the 23rd toughest schedule of opponent offenses, which should further solidify their spot near the top of the NFL as measured by total defense; on the flip side although they will face a tougher schedule of defenses they do face the easiest schedule of opponent rush defense to close – which should also lock up their playoff spot being such a strong rushing team.  Expect Carolina to at best win the NFC South; at worst secure a Wild Card berth.  Cincinnati checks in at #5 despite back to back tough losses in OT.  Cincinnati has 4 losses on the season, three of which came by 3pts or less – so many in the media discounting their record and efforts over the last two weeks appear misguided.  TOM has proved a critical metric for their success as they are 0-3 when posting a negative margin versus 6-1 when even or positive.  Andy Dalton has a ratio of 4/9 in their 4 losses, clearly a spot he must improve upon if the Bengals are to finally make some noise come January.  Cincinnati will face a remaining schedule similar to what they have thus far – if they can take care of the football, and win more of those close games, expect them to win the NFC North.  Detroit has taken over sole possession of the lead in the NFC North, and checks in at #6 in my performance ratings, buoyed by an offense that rates #5 in the NFL.  Passing is the name of the game in today’s NFL and Matthew Stafford is playing better than any current NFC North QB, hence why the Lions find themselves at the top of their division.  And only better times may be ahead for these Lions as their closing schedule ranks amongst the easiest in the entire NFL at #29 including #28 versus opponent offenses and #30 versus opponent defenses.  What’s more they also face the 31st rated schedule of opponent pass defense!  I projected the Lions to also be one of my top sleeper teams this summer, and they have not disappointed to date; I also have projected them to reach the playoffs following each of the last 7 weeks including 4 times to win the NFC North.
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:

Rating
NFL
AW
48
1
NW
56
2
NN
61
3
NS
64
4
AN
70
5
AS
73
6
AE
77
7
NE
78
8

This analysis has not changed much during the entire season as the AFC West remains the top division which should come as no surprise since KC remains undefeated and Denver continues to lead the performance ratings.  The NFC owns the next 3 spots in the divisional rankings with the NFC East being the lone outlier – and they continue to battle the AFC East for the worst division in football.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk10.  As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.  For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
AFC East
Wins
Loss

NFC East
Wins
Loss
NE
10.39
5.61

PHI
8.05
7.95
NYJ
8.59
7.41

DAL
7.56
8.44
MIA
7.15
8.85

WAS
6.94
9.06
BUF
6.10
9.90

NYG
6.15
9.85







AFC North



NFC North


CIN
9.88
6.12

DET
10.44
5.56
CLE
7.33
8.67

CHI
8.76
7.24
BAL
7.11
8.89

GB
8.74
7.26
PIT
6.33
9.67

MIN
4.31
11.69







AFC South



NFC South


IND
9.81
6.19

NO
11.32
4.68
TEN
7.18
8.82

CAR
10.72
5.28
HOU
6.28
9.72

ATL
4.67
11.34
JAC
2.15
13.85

TB
3.57
12.43







AFC West



NFC West


DEN
13.32
2.68

SEA
13.14
2.87
KC
12.39
3.61

SF
10.00
6.00
SD
7.15
8.85

ARI
8.56
7.44
OAK
5.78
10.23

STL
6.14
9.86







Playoffs



Playoffs


#6 NYJ @ #3 CIN


#6 SF @ #3 DET

#5 KC @ #4 IND


#5 CAR @ #4 PHI








#1 DEN



#1 SEA


#2 NE



#2 NO



As far as playoff projections go things are starting to really solidify themselves in many spots.  In the AFC we know the next three week’s will tell the story as to whom will earn home field advantage, and the #2 seed as Denver plays KC, @NE, @KC.  We also know there will only be one additional WC berth available (as the AFC West loser will earn the #5 seed) and that battle will likely come down to the final two weeks between a number of teams.  The NFC may be even more clear-cut especially following last week’s win by Carolina at SF.  The pair of WC teams seem to be known with the NFC South loser (between NO & CAR) and the NFC West loser (between SEA & SF) earning those spots and likely travelling to the NFC East & North division winners on Wild Card weekend.  Seattle appears to be a lock to win the NFC West, while the Saints are also in good shape to win the NFC South – those two teams will likely wind up with the bye weeks in the NFC.  This weekend’s NFC East matchup between Washington and Philadelphia is a big one as I believe the Redskins are playing better than many believe, and need that win badly; the NFC North could come down to how quickly Aaron Rodgers returns to the Packers lineup.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings.  My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread.  These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.  For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:
1
DEN
2
SEA
3
NO
3
CAR
5
SF
6
KC
7
CIN
8
DET
9
NE
10
WAS
11
IND
11
HOU
13
GB
14
SD
15
CHI
16
ARI
17
NYJ
18
PHI
19
TEN
19
NYG
28
OAK
21
DAL
22
STL
22
MIA
24
BAL
25
PIT
25
CLE
27
BUF
29
TB
30
ATL
31
MIN
32
JAC


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