Each offseason leading
up to a new season I complete an analysis of 4 key statistics – called my
“Leading Indicators” – I feel are critical to team success. Those four stats are point differential
(which is simply points scored minus points allowed), yards per play, first
downs per game, and turnover margin – those four by themselves are very highly
correlated with win/loss performance year after year. Besides setting up this analysis for the
upcoming season below, I have posted my review of the NFL
2012 Leading Indicators article that was very successful projecting which
way team’s records would slide
Without further
discussion let’s break down 3 of the 4 stats I mentioned above leaving out
turnovers for now – they are perhaps the most critical, but I will be
performing a more detailed analysis on that stat down the line – which will be
featured in its own blog entries – so today I will not spend any time on
it. In a change from last year’s format,
since we have already posted an in depth review of last season’s projections
which is linked above, here is what stands out for the upcoming 2013 NFL
Regular Season:
1. Points Differential: simple calculation by taking the average points scored per game
minus the average points allowed per game which yields a points differential
per game. There is a pretty standard
matrix across the industry that has been put together studying just this figure
over the last 30 or so years, which allows you to slot teams into a specific
projected record based on this number (some refer to this analysis as the
Pythagorean Theorem Analysis). Once you
do that the value in this analysis is added by comparing the actual record of a
team vs. the record their points differential suggest it should have led to –
and based on that you can green or red flag specific teams for the upcoming
season.
o
Last year we nailed 4 of 5 projections
·
Based on 2012 figures, for
the 2013 season we expect to see:
o
DET & NE & NYG & SEA to increase their wins this year. Those four teams are what the numbers suggest
– meaning, each of those four teams had a points differential that suggested
they should have posted a better record than they actually did (and it just so
happens this year that all four of those teams should have each won 2
additional games). But by taking a
closer look, and being familiar with the general slides we see year to year
with NFL teams, I am hard pressed to agree with NE moving up from their 12 wins
last year, along with SEA increasing their win total from the 11 they posted
last season. However, I do expect both
DET & NYG to increase their win totals – especially DET which has a lot of
supporting indicators that you will read about in this blog as we review last
season.
o
IND & TEN to decrease this year. Unlike the team’s projected to enjoy
additional wins in the coming season, I do agree with the assessment that both
of these AFC South teams will drop in wins from the 2012 season. Like the Lions who are supported by many data
points for an increase in their win total, the Colts on the flip side somehow
won 11 games last season with not many indicators suggesting they should have
even been close to that level – thanks Andrew Luck. Expect the Colts to miss the playoffs in
2013, while the Titans should wind up with at worst a Top 5 selection in the
2014 NFL Draft.
2. Yards per Play: the calculation is straight forward, and the idea here is to take
this number for each team, sort from best to worst, and identify outliers –
where teams that are near the top of this metric had a poor record, or vice
versa.
o
Last year we were correct on 4 of 4 projections
·
Based upon 2012
figures, for the 2013 season we expect to see:
o
IND & CHI & CIN to have a worse record compared to 2012. As mentioned above and in other articles we
are extremely bearish on the Colts as 2013 approaches. CHI, led by a Top 5 defense, has changed HC
and resides in the tough, deep NFC North – so I will concur with the premise
suggested here that CHI will win 9 or fewer games in 2013. Lastly, the Bengals have enjoyed a playoff
berth in each of the last two seasons, both times falling to the Texans in the
Wild Card round…..this year I do not expect them to be as successful, as they
will fail to reach double digit wins.
o
NO & CAR & TB & DAL & DET will have a better record. Although the numbers suggest this, it’s hard
to envision a scenario where 3 of the 4 NFC South teams enjoy an increase in
their win totals from 2012 – hence, we will back the first two NO & CAR,
leaving TB off the official projection list.
The Saints are a team to be bullish on because the impact HC Sean
Payton’s suspension had on this team was visible – just like the favorable
impact he will have this season. CAR
suffered through multiple close losses early last season, and although QB Cam
Newton struggled some in his 2nd season, I look for him to use that
as a launching pad onto bigger and brighter things in 2013. DAL was once again stuck at 8 wins, although
their yards per play metric ranked 9th in the NFL, suggesting a
potential double digit win team. With
the heat turned way up on HC Jason Garrett & newly minted QB Tony Romo, I
do finally expect DAL to contend for a playoff berth in 2013, breaking through
the .500 mark. DET shows up once again
in one of our leading indicators as a team who should enjoy more success in
2013, and we completely back that projection here.
3. First Downs per Game: another straight forward calculation or stat you can pull
from just about any website, this gives a good idea of the consistency and
success teams have a moving the ball, and hence scoring points. While the big play isn’t captured in this
metric, they are few and far between – and a much more favorable way to measure
the consistency of an offense is by their success picking up first downs.
o
Last year we were correct on 3 of 3 projections
·
Based upon
2012 figures, for the 2013 season we expect to see:
o
CIN & CHI to have a worse record
o
DET & NO to have a better record
As mentioned in the
beginning of this post, Turnover Margin is the other leading indicator I use,
but it will not be discussed here today.
I will feature an entire blog entry on this topic in the coming weeks,
and trust me when I tell you that is a must read for any football handicapper.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
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