2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field – UPDATED THRU 2/26 GAMES
I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view
as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but
need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament
gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPI
could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch). Teams are also listed in the order I view
their seeding or chances of receiving a bid.
America East:
Stony Brook
This
only auto-bid league will likely come down to Stony Brook vs. Vermont in the
conference tournament. The teams split
their regular season meetings with SB winning by 6 at home on Jan 2, but
Vermont crushing SB at home on Feb 12 by 19.
Atlantic Ten:
Temple
Looking
good: St. Louis, Xavier. The
Billikens are a LOCK to go dancing, while Xavier sits very well on the back of
a few quality OOC wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and to a lesser extent
Purdue and Butler. These two teams face
off this week, a win by Xavier would seal their deal for earning a bid.
UMass
was removed from the “need wins” category after going 1-2 the last week and a
half including a 33pt loss @ Dayton on Saturday. I have maintained thru all these editions the
A10 seems like a 3 bid conference, and I still feel that way – perhaps even
moreso in this edition as what also needs to be considered as I mention below
is there will be conference tournament upsets which will remove some of the
projected at-large bids we forecast here.
While Joe Lunardi continues displaying outright “homerism” placing St.
Joseph’s in his “last four out” bucket, I do not see any shot barring at least
a run to the A10 Conference Tournament final for them to receive a bid with an
RPI in the mid 60’s, and 11 losses already.
The typical absolute cut-off as far as RPI’s and at-large bids is 60,
and with only one game remaining vs. mid 50s RPI St. Bonaventure, I personally
do not see it happening for the Hawks.
ACC: North Carolina
Looking
good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Need
wins: Miami (FL), NC State. With an
RPI around #40 and key wins @ Duke and yesterday over Florida State, Miami (FL)
is almost a lock to receive an at-large, barring a very early exit in the ACC
Tournament. NC State was sitting very
nicely as far as at-large bids goes in the second half of a Feb. 16 game @ Duke
– unfortunately for the Pack they blew a 20pt lead in that game, and have not
recovered since losing 4 straight and putting them at risk of missing the
dance. They currently sit with an RPI
around the imaginary cut-off of #60, but they do host Miami (FL) on Wednesday
in an absolute must-win game. In
addition they likely will need a pair of wins (at least) in the ACC Tournament
to receive legit consideration – their bracket will shape up something like
first round match-up vs. BC/GT, second round vs. UVA/Miami, and potential
semi-final vs. FSU/Duke or UNC loser from this week’s game.
Atlantic Sun:
Belmont
This
league will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-Sun
Tourney. Belmont won the pair of regular
season match-ups between these schools, but only by a combined 5pts – and with
the understanding it is very tough to beat a team three times in one season,
the potential conference tournament final could be a good one, and a legit spot
where Mercer could steal this conference’s only bid.
Big 12: Kansas
Looking
good: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State
Need
wins: Kansas State, Texas. Both of
these teams sit very well in the at-large pecking order as far as RPI goes,
hovering around the mid 20s currently.
KST can lock up a bid this week if they can sweep their pair of games, @
A&M and hosting OKST. The major
issue with the Wildcats is their conference record that currently sits at 8-8 –
they at least obviously need 9-9 – if they can get there, and pick up a win or
two in the conference tournament, they will earn a bid as they already have
victories over Alabama, Long Beach State, Missouri twice, and Baylor. Texas made their debut in this analysis last
edition, but went 1-2 in their last 3 – their only win an OT win @ a bad Texas
Tech team. The Horns lack a signature
win, and also clearly need to go at least 9-9 in conference play (which would
be 1-1 to close) to have any shot – they have a chance to solve a lot of their
troubles this Saturday if they could win @ Kansas. What may hold Texas back in their 2-7 mark
vs. the other 5 Big 12 teams listed here, only beating Iowa State and Kansas
State at home.
Big East: Syracuse
Looking
good: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati. The Bearcats move up a level to “looking
good” in this edition as with 10+ conference wins, 20+ overall wins, and an RPI
sub 40 I believe they will receive a bid come Selection Sunday.
Need
wins: South Florida, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia. Things have cleared themselves up a little
more as far as Big East bids goes, but there is still a lot of work that needs
to be done for these four teams to receive an at-large invite. We did see some sliding amongst these teams
as far as who I see as the most likely to receive a bid as WVU was the “most
likely” in last edition, now they are the “least likely” in my opinion – others
have shifted as well. The first point
that can be made is both West Virginia and UConn will need to win BOTH their
remaining regular season games to have any shot – that would move each to 9-9
in conference play. That feat seems more
likely to be completed by UConn as the Huskies travel to Providence, and host
Pittsburgh – while WVU hosts DePaul but then travels to South Florida in what
will be a massive game for at-large positioning next weekend. Seton Hall only has one regular season game
remaining @ DePaul, a game they also must win to move to 9-9 in conference
play. USF is one of the most interesting
teams I have come across in recent memory as far as this exercise goes – on one
hand they are 11-5 in Big East play – no team has ever not made the dance with
that kind of mark – yet their RPI sits around #70 which would make them one of
the worst teams of all time to receive a bid as far as RPI goes. The Bulls could NO DOUBT seal their fate to
receiving a bid if they can close 2-0 @ Louisville and hosting West Virginia;
1-1 I still think they are positioned nicely; 0-2 may mean some trouble. If the teams on this list can reach .500 in
conference play maybe the safest bet to make would be whichever team goes the
furthest in the Big East Tournament will receive a bid. Right now, barring small conference
tournament upsets, the BE seems like a 8 to 9 bid league – which means 2 to 3
of these teams will make it. Two is probably
the most likely scenario when taking into consideration the likely hood we will
see 3-5 upsets.
Big Sky: Weber
State
The Big
Sky will likely come down to a battle between Weber State and Montana. On Jan 14th WST took down MON
rather easily which is why they hold the current bid in this edition, but the
return game is on Feb 28th @ Montana, with a probable 3rd
meeting in the conference tournament final to determine the automatic bid.
Big South:
UNC-Asheville
UNCA has a 4 game lead in their
conference, so any other team winning this conference tournament would
certainly be an upset but would not steal an at-large bid as the Big South is
definitely a one bid conference.
Big Ten: Ohio
State
Looking
good: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Need
wins: Purdue. The Boilers check in
this week at 19-10/9-7, high 20s RPI – all decent numbers that have been
improving over the last few weeks. Purdue
also picked up a signature win on Saturday, beating Michigan on the road – they
are still only 1-6 vs. ranked teams, but do have decent wins over Temple, Iona
and Miami (FL) earlier in the season. With
games remaining vs. Penn State and @ Indiana, a 2-0 sweep would have them
sitting almost as a lock barring a first round Big Ten Tournament exit – the
key this week has to be at least getting one win moving them to a > .500
conference record. The BT Tourney
bracket for Purdue will shape up something like first round vs. Penn
State/Nebraska, second round vs. Ohio State/Michigan – in almost every scenario
I can imagine they would have to certainly avoid a loss to PSU/Nebraska in that
first round.
Big West: Long
Beach State
If LBST
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool. The Beach is 14-0 in
conference play, easily plowing through the competition this season – but we
have seen this before, recently from LBST, only to have them lose in the
conference tournament. As talked about
often in this article, it is tough sledding trying to beat teams for the third
time in one season – which they will have to do multiple times to earn their
conference’s auto-bid.
Colonial: Drexel
Looking
good: VCU. The Rams have been
upgraded to this category as they are currently sitting in high 40s RPI wise,
relatively comfortable position for a team with a 25-6 record in one of the top
mid-major conferences around. So long as
they at least reach the conference tournament final I feel they have a very
strong chance at receiving an at-large bid, especially considering they have
won 14 of their last 15 games, and their 3 conference losses have come by a
combined 9 points. George Mason has
been removed from the “need wins” category following a pair of losses in their
last two outings. But, that being said,
Mason is still a very legit contender for winning the conference tournament –
and if they did so, it would be very interesting to see if the selection committee
does indeed give the Colonial three bids.
Conference USA:
Memphis
Need
wins: Southern Mississippi, UCF. SMISS
was downgraded this week from “looking good” to “need wins” after dropping two
of their last 3 to Houston and UTEP.
With an RPI in the mid 60s the Golden Eagles will need to win their last
two vs. SMU and @ Marshall, along with making a run to at least the CUSA
Tournament semi-finals to receive legitimate consideration. The Golden Knights are basically on the same
predicament, but a little worse – their RPI is hovering around #80, so I figure
they need to at least beat Memphis again on the road this week, close the
regular season with a win over UAB, and go on a similar run in the conference
tournament. Just a few weeks ago this
looked like a possible 3 bid conference, now it’s looking like 1 is more likely
unless either of these teams gets real hot real fast.
Horizon: Valparaiso
The
Horizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason to
think that will change this year. This
league is extremely competitive with not much difference between the top 8
teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting – and would not surprise me
one bit if Valpo or even Cleveland State did not cut the nets down. I have placed action on Wisconsin-Green Bay
to win the Horizon tournament at 50/1 odds.
Ivy: Harvard
If HAR
does not win their conference during the regular season (remember the Ivy
League does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding
to the pool of current at-large teams.
HAR has gone 3-2 in their last 5 league games, which places them in a
tie in the loss column for the top spot with Penn. Those two teams do not play again this year
after splitting the regular season pair of contests – a playoff, similar to
what we saw last season, could be in the cards again for the Ivy auto-bid.
MAAC: Iona
If IONA
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams. The Gaels are a
very dangerous team, make no mistake about it.
On the season they are 24-6, and 5 of their 6 losses were by single
digits (including a 1pt loss to Purdue in their opener). Of the teams right behind them in the
conference standings they did lose once to Loyola Maryland (#2 seed), and
Manhattan (#3 seed) – oddly that may bode well for them during Championship
Week.
MAC: Akron
If
AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus
adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
Akron maintains a 2gm lead with 2 to play, and they reside in the
tougher East division of the MAC that has 5 of 6 teams above .500 in league
play. Although Akron will be the
favorite to win the conference tournament, I feel four teams have a legit shot
at cutting the nets down (Akron, Ohio, Buffalo, Kent State) – so the auto-bid
for this league is not a certainty at this point.
MEAC: Norfolk
State
Although
Savannah State has overtaken Norfolk State in the standings currently, and has
a better RPI, I am going to leave NS as my projected auto-bid winner based on
their win over SS earlier in the season in the team’s only meeting.
Missouri Valley:
Wichita State
Looking
good: Creighton. The Blue Jays are
back on the “looking good” line after closing the season with four straight
wins including the big bracket-busters victory over Long Beach State. With an RPI in the high 30s, as long as
Creighton picks up a couple of wins in the MVC Tournament they will solidify
their spot amongst the Field of 68.
Mountain West:
UNLV
Looking
good: New Mexico, San Diego State
Need
wins: Colorado State. Wyoming has
been removed from this list following their loss to Colorado State last week
which moved them to losing 4 of 5, and a below .500 in MWC play which certainly
doesn’t bode well for receiving an at-large.
Then when you consider there are 3 teams that are close to locks to make
the field, getting four teams for this conference may be a stretch let alone
five. For now we will leave CSU but they
are on the brink of elimination, and must beat UNLV & Air Force to close
their regular season at the very least to remain in the next edition before
Championship Week.
Northeast: LIU
Brooklyn
LIUB
has grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking of
Wagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twice
this season. Similar other examples
discussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – and
it is tough to beat a team three times in one season.
Ohio Valley:
Murray State
If MSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool. Murray State has been
playing very well since seeing their bid for an undefeated season come to an
end 2.5 weeks ago – 5 straight wins and covers.
Win or lose in the OVC Tourney they will be dancing, and they hope to at
least make the second weekend of action – and are a real threat to do so,
especially with a favorable draw or an upset or two in their bracket.
Pac 12: California
Looking good: Arizona,
Washington. Not much has occurred to
separate these teams since the last edition, but these three teams will be in
the field. California appears to be the
best team using the eye test, and some of the #’s as their RPI has been
climbing steadily in recent weeks settling in the mid 20s today. Arizona and Washington will both also be
dancing, probably being first round favorites seed wise come Selection Sunday.
Need
wins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford. Oregon
has clearly taken a step above Colorado and Stanford in the past three games,
going 2-1 in road games including a win over Stanford. With the Ducks closing with a pair of home
games vs. Colorado and Utah, they appear to be in solid shape to be dancing as
the 4th Pac 12 team. Colorado
and Stanford both have work to do – I like the Buffs resume more than
Stanford’s, even considering Stanford does have a pair of nice OOC wins – but
the Cardinal win over Colorado last week may be the final nail in the Colorado
coffin. Both these teams have an
opportunity to improve their positioning this week as Colorado faces both
Oregon schools on the road, while Stanford hosts Cal to close the season. Both teams need to win those games to remain
in the next edition – they are teetering right now on the brink of elimination
barring a run in the Pac 12 Tourney.
COLO figures to be the #5 seed which would set up a bracket facing USC
in first round, then a big QF match-up with likely Oregon or possibly
Arizona. Stanford on the other hand
figures to likely fall to the #7 seed (assumes a loss to Cal in season finale)
which would have them likely facing Arizona State in first round, then Cal or
Washington in second. I think a safe
assumption for both teams is win out, and must win AT LEAST TWO in Pac 12
tournament to keep their hopes alive.
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
Looking
good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Need
wins: Mississippi State. Alabama has
jumped from the “need wins” group up to “looking good” based on going 3-0 over
the last week and a half, 6-2 in their last 8, an RPI in the low 20s, and OOC
wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU.
The Tide still has work to do, a 2-0 close to the regular season with
wins over Auburn and Ole Miss would nearly lock them into a spot. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas were removed from
this edition as we kind of forecasted happening last time we published, while
Mississippi State has fallen from “looking good” to “need wins” based on losing
5 straight, a sub .500 conference record, double digit losses, and an RPI that
continues to plummet now sitting in the low 80s. Not only do they need wins, but they need ‘em
fast and furious to keep their faint hopes alive. At the very least the Bulldogs need to close
the year with wins @ South Carolina and home vs. Arkansas, and pick up one and
most likely two conference tourney wins – they will likely face
ARK/MISS/AUB/UGA in first round, then either Florida or Kentucky in Rd2.
Southern: Davidson
If DAV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams. Davidson could
have helped themselves out huge had they beat Wichita State at home during
bracket-busters, but with that loss it is unlikely they would receive a bid
should they lose in their conference tournament.
Southland: Texas-Arlington
Similar
to Long Beach State UTA has not lost a conference game this season – and that
may NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.
SWAC: Mississippi
Valley State
Similar
to Long Beach State and UTA, MSVS has not lost a conference game this season –
and that may NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.
Summit: Oral
Roberts
OR has
plowed thru the Summit League during the regular season only losing one game,
but they may be in for a battle should they face South Dakota State in the
conference tourney, whom they lost to by 15 earlier in the season.
Sun Belt: Middle
Tennessee State
If MTSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.
West Coast: St.
Mary’s
Looking
good: Gonzaga
Those
two teams are near locks to
be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that
would likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.
Need
wins: BYU. The Cougars were swept by
St. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which will
help their case. BYU is positioned
pretty strongly with a top 40 RPI, but an early exit from the WCC Tournament
could be fatal.
WAC: Nevada
If NEV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOOKING GOOD: 27
Currently I project 58
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 17
TEAMS I LISTED FOR 10 REMAINING SPOTS
If there are upsets in
the a handful of conference tournaments the at-large spots will be reduced – so
the ten “open” spots I listed here are likely to be less, almost a 100%
certainty. So this time around I have
listed these teams in order, keeping in mind the most likely scenario only
sends the top 6 or 7 from this list because small conference tournament upsets
will steal auto-bids for some teams, and hence they will be forced into the
at-large pool:
- Kansas State
- Miami (FL)
- Purdue
- BYU
- South Florida
- Texas
- Oregon
- Seton Hall
- UConn
- Southern Mississippi
MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES
Big East: 9 ACC:
5 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 4 A
10: 3 Big
12: 6
Colonial: 2 MWC:
3 Pac 12: 4 WCC: 3 MVC: 2 CUSA: 2
Differences from my bracket vs. the bracketologist himself,
Mr. Joe Lunardi @ espn.com:
My latest
projection: Bracketologist:
West Virginia – OUT West
Virginia – IN (#12 seed)
South Florida – IN South
Florida – first four OUT
Northwestern – OUT Northwestern
– IN (#13 seed)
Mississippi State – OUT Mississippi
State – IN (#12 seed)
VCU – IN VCU
– first four OUT
Oregon – IN Oregon
– next four OUT
Let’s first revisit the biggest differences from the 2/16
edition to see where we both stand on the pair I pointed out from this blog 10
days ago:
Illinois: Lunardi had the Illini in
the field 10 days ago, I did not. Today
Lunardi does not have them included, and I still do not. Looks like a check mark for me.
VCU:
Lunardi did not even list VCU in his first 8 teams out 10 days ago, I had the
Rams in. Today Lunardi has the Rams as
first four out, while I still have them in the field. Looks like another check mark for me.
I guess at this point I should be asking why this guy has a
job, right? J
Now let’s examine the biggest differences between the two of
us where things stand today:
Big East:
Lunardi has WVU solidly in his bracket, not even amongst the last four in while
I have WVU as the clear-cut 10th best team in the Big East and hence
not making the dance. Even though I
currently list 9 teams from the Big East receiving bids, I think that # winds
up being 8 as UConn will be pushed out after conference tournament upsets next
week; Lunardi currently has UConn as comfortably in his bracket as a 10 seed –
I just do not understand that, I know they have a great RPI but they are 7-9 in
conference play and if they do not AT LEAST win both their last two contests of
the regular season they are more than likely OUT – so to have them in so
comfortably is mind boggling. Lastly,
USF, I have them in the field right now pretty comfortably, while Lunardi has
them just missing – and again, to stress the point, his “first four out” is
more likely the “4th to 8th teams out” because as team’s
lose in conference tournaments his “first four out” bucket will only slide
further down the list when team’s he currently projects as in lose. USF is a bit of a conundrum as they do have a
terrible RPI for a team with their record playing in a power conference, but at
the end of the day if they go 12-6 or better in the Big East, unbalanced
schedule or not, they will get a bid in my opinion.
Northwestern &
Mississippi State: I have neither coming close to making the dance at
this point, and to be fair he has both barely sneaking in playing those
“play-in” games on Tuesday night. At the
end of the day team’s he has listed in those games almost certainly will slide
off the bracket after upsets, so we most likely will wind up agreeing that
these two teams will miss out – but nevertheless, for now we both are assuming
there are no upsets, and he still lists both while I list neither.
VCU: as
discussed above, I still list them as in the Field of 68, while Lunardi has at
least upgraded the Rams to his “first four out” bucket. Time will tell, but a conference like the
Colonial with three very solid clubs in my opinion deserves and will get two
bids – keep in mind Mason is still alive in the sense they have a legit shot at
winning the conference tourney. If that
was to happen I would give the other to either Drexel or VCU if they played in
the Final vs. Mason, if neither made it I would give it to Drexel. If neither makes the semifinals of the
conference tourney I may adjust and not give out two bids to this conference.
Oregon: I
feel pretty good about Oregon; they pass my eye test for sure as I have watched
quite a few of their games recently including last night @ Oregon State. 20 wins, 11 in Pac 12 – yeah they could use a
boost to an RPI that sits around #70, but let’s see how rest of season and
tourney plays out. Lunardi has them
pretty safely OUT of the tournament right now as they reside in his “next four
out” bucket that at the end of the day is probably a 2 seed in the NIT – that
how far off they will be from making the cut.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
