Friday, February 3, 2012

2012 NCAA Tournment - Projected Field


2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field

As we currently sit about midway through the conference schedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAA Tournament.  I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch).

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten: Temple
                Looking good: LaSalle, Xavier, St. Louis
                Need wins: UMass, Dayton, St. Joseph’s (PA)

ACC: North Carolina
                Looking good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia
                Need wins: NC State, Miami (FL)

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big 12: Baylor
                Looking good: Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State
                Need wins: Kansas State

Big East: Syracuse
                Looking good: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville
                Need wins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Seton Hall

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: Ohio State
                Looking good: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin
                Need wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue

Big West: Long Beach State
If LBST does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one     away from the current at-large pool.

Colonial: VCU
                Need wins: Drexel, George Mason

Conference USA: Memphis
                Looking good: Southern Mississippi
                Need wins: UCF

Horizon: Cleveland State
If CSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Ivy: Harvard
If HAR does not win their conference during regular season (remember the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament) they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

MAAC: Iona
If IONA does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

MAC: Ohio
If OHIO does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
                Need wins: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Wichita State
                Looking good: Creighton
Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.


Mountain West: UNLV
                Looking good: San Diego State, New Mexico
                Need wins: Colorado State

Northeast: Wagner
If WAG does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Ohio Valley: Murray State
If MSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Pac 12: Arizona
                Need wins: Washington, Stanford, California, Oregon, Colorado

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky
                Looking good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
                Need wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Southern: Davidson
If DAV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

Summit: Oral Roberts
If OR does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
If MTSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

West Coast: St. Mary’s
                Looking good: Gonzaga
Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.
                Need wins: BYU

WAC: Nevada
If NEV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 24

Currently I project 55 of the 68 bids are earned.  

NEED WINS: 28 TEAMS I LISTED FOR 13 REMAINING SPOTS

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.  We are likely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 28 teams jockeying for position to earn ~10 spots . 
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012






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