The opening weekend of NFL play is in the books and for me as a Broncos fan it lived up to all the summer hype as Peyton and Co. looked strong picking up a win over the Steelers. Setting that aside, let’s examine three of my major analysis based on Wk1 results – first I will post my performance ratings in the opening games, second I will post my updated projected standings, and third I will share my power rankings.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80). Also of note, a few stats such as TOM & INT do not have ½ pt values, so a game may not sum to exactly 160.
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL TEAM
| ||||||
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
| |||
PHI
|
48.5
|
10
|
70.0
|
1
|
118.5
|
1
| ||
NE
|
67.0
|
1
|
49.0
|
8
|
116.0
|
2
| ||
DEN
|
54.5
|
8
|
51.5
|
5
|
106.0
|
3
| ||
DAL
|
58.5
|
4
|
47.0
|
11
|
105.5
|
4
| ||
BAL
|
62.5
|
2
|
42.5
|
15
|
105.0
|
5
| ||
CHI
|
56.0
|
7
|
49.0
|
8
|
105.0
|
5
| ||
WAS
|
60.0
|
3
|
44.5
|
13
|
104.5
|
7
| ||
HOU
|
42.0
|
16
|
56.5
|
2
|
98.5
|
8
| ||
SF
|
52.5
|
9
|
44.0
|
14
|
96.5
|
9
| ||
DET
|
44.5
|
15
|
51.0
|
7
|
95.5
|
10
| ||
TB
|
41.0
|
17
|
51.5
|
5
|
92.5
|
11
| ||
NYJ
|
58.5
|
4
|
29.0
|
23
|
87.5
|
12
| ||
ATL
|
56.5
|
6
|
29.5
|
22
|
86.0
|
13
| ||
SD
|
35.5
|
18
|
48.0
|
10
|
83.5
|
14
| ||
SEA
|
25.5
|
28
|
56.0
|
3
|
81.5
|
15
| ||
JAC
|
47.5
|
11
|
33.0
|
18
|
80.5
|
16
| ||
ARI
|
24.0
|
30
|
54.5
|
4
|
78.5
|
17
| ||
MIN
|
46.0
|
12
|
32.0
|
19
|
78.0
|
18
| ||
OAK
|
30.0
|
23
|
46.5
|
12
|
76.5
|
19
| ||
KC
|
45.5
|
14
|
28.0
|
26
|
73.5
|
20
| ||
BUF
|
46.0
|
12
|
26.5
|
27
|
72.5
|
21
| ||
CAR
|
25.5
|
28
|
41.5
|
17
|
67.0
|
22
| ||
STL
|
34.0
|
20
|
30.5
|
20
|
64.5
|
23
| ||
GB
|
34.0
|
20
|
30.0
|
21
|
64.0
|
24
| ||
MIA
|
18.0
|
31
|
42.5
|
15
|
60.5
|
25
| ||
CIN
|
34.5
|
19
|
20.5
|
30
|
55.0
|
26
| ||
IND
|
26.0
|
27
|
28.5
|
25
|
54.5
|
27
| ||
NO
|
29.5
|
24
|
25.0
|
28
|
54.5
|
27
| ||
PIT
|
29.0
|
25
|
25.0
|
28
|
54.0
|
29
| ||
NYG
|
33.0
|
22
|
20.5
|
30
|
53.5
|
30
| ||
TEN
|
27.5
|
26
|
16.0
|
32
|
43.5
|
31
| ||
CLE
|
11.0
|
32
|
29.0
|
23
|
40.0
|
32
| ||
As we see according to my numbers the Eagles actually played the best Wk1, scoring a very high 118.5 @ CLE. Just how high is that rating? Over the last three years, here are the top ratings for an entire season: 2011 HOU/97.4, 2010 SD/97.5, and 2009 GB/98.2. That being said, comparing 16 games of performance isn’t the best barometer to gauge how solid a one game rating is, so let’s examine the best one game performances LY and see where this one fits in. For the entire 2011 season, the top one game performance was HOU in Wk7, when they graded to a 143.5 in a 41-7 pasting of TEN in Nashville. PHI’s 118.5 would slide into the #14 spot LY. So while it was a solid week, it was nothing out of the ordinary or even spectacular. Surely after seeing and reading about that you must be wondering why did PHI struggle so much only winning this game 17-16 if they rated so highly in this statistical measure? Drilling down more on the numbers shows the Eagles weren’t solid in their offensive passing game – Michael Vick really struggled with 4 INT, and a 49.5 QBR – a QBR that low also obviously impacts many of my other passing metrics that drive a QBR. The good and possibly lucky part as it turns out for the Eagles is they faced a Browns team that was starting a rookie QB – which led to the Birds playing to a grade of 70 defensively – a grade that would have been #5 LY – obviously very solid. Defensively PHI picked up the maximum 5pts per category in 11 of the 16, and graded 4 in another 2 – so 13 of the 16 categories they graded 4 or 5. The only areas they struggled some was with their rushing defense, specifically, yards per rush and total rushing yards. PHI has a lot of work to do if they are going to challenge in the NFC this season, which is exactly what I projected them to do. Next up, DEN graded a 106.0 in their home win over PIT – the Broncos had not reached that level since Wk13 of the 2009 season, which was a 44-13 road win over KC when they put up a 115.5. Do you think that Peyton Manning signing is paying off yet? DEN was one of only four teams that I shifted one of my two power ratings for following their opener, as it’s hard to argue with that kind of performance, especially when it comes against PIT. The Redskins also deserve a mention, considering they took care of the Saints as 8pt underdogs in the Superdome behind rookie QB Robert Griffin III. Most figured the Skins would have a solid defense in 2012, but I don’t know many who figured that offense could be so successful this early in one of the toughest NFL environments. The Skins offense posted a 60 grade, #3 in the NFL for the week, basically exclusively driven by RG3’s passing performance as he graded a perfect 5 in five of the six strictly passing categories, only missing perfection by a 4 grade with 2 TD passes. WAS’s passing offense as a unit graded to #2 in the NFL after Wk1, only behind ATL as Matt Ryan posted a perfect 5 in all six categories, with the difference being 3 TD passes to Griffin’s 2. How about the NYJ? This team failed to score a TD during the entire preseason with their first unit, yet blew up in Wk1 scoring 48pts in their win over BUF. Their offense graded out to #4 in the entire league based on that performance, which was their best offensive grade since Wk4 of the 2010 season, ironically enough also against BUF, when they beat the Bills in Orchard Park 38-14. A rookie QB many were high on heading into this season was Seahawks starter Russell Wilson, after he played extremely well in the preseason and took the starting role away from FA signee Matt Flynn. In his opener @ ARI (a defense that I rated #15 LY – but they were #6 vs. pass), he struggled mightily with a 0 or 1 grade in four of six categories, along with a 2 in another – the only area he graded well was INT (based on only throwing 1). SEA’s pass game is ranked #29 in the NFL after Wk1, and with games coming up versus playoff contenders DAL & GB, it could continue to be rough for the rookie, although both will be at home. One of the biggest disappointments of Wk1 has to be the Chiefs, whom many picked to win the AFC West or earn a Wild Card berth this season behind a very strong defense, the healthy return of a few impact players (RB Jamal Charles & S Eric Berry to name two), and new head coach Romeo Crennell. It didn’t go as smooth as expected in their home opener vs. ATL, losing 40-24. The most disappointing aspect of the blowout loss was certainly their defense that was shredded and left them ranked #26 in the NFL. The Chiefs do not have enough firepower offensively (especially their passing game) to get into shoot-outs, even in the comfy confines of Arrowhead Stadium. Keep an eye on their defense in the next few weeks as if we do not see a turnaround, it will be a long season for KC with their tough schedule – and it must start this week @ BUF, in a game that features a pair of 0-1 teams, both of which have designs on playing January football this season. How about the Panthers? There is no doubt it was a tough spot, opening week in Tampa, facing a Bucs team off a disasterous 2011 campaign, with many new pieces including a new coaching staff – but 10 points? Last year CAR’s offense was ranked #4 in my performance ratings, and I discussed this summer if they continued to play that well offensively (which I saw no reason wouldn’t happen as Newton enters his 2nd season under center after breaking many passing records as a rookie), and picked up a few more healthy games played on defense, they would contend for a playoff berth and possibly the NFC South crown. An opening week loss to TB, a division rival, on the road, isn’t a true disaster. But should we be concerned with their offense? Last week it was #28 in the NFL, and posted that rating vs. a defense that was dead last in 2011? A closer look at the game statistically shows their running game did them in as they graded 0 in all four rushing only categories, which obviously puts them dead last in the NFL. This week they should get RB Jonathan Stewart back, which can only help – but they will be facing an angry NO team in a battle of 0-1 teams. It’s tough to say “must win” this early, but one of these teams will be in a big hole at 0-2 to start season – and if CAR loses, they would also fall to 0-2 in division play. GB opened their season getting stomped out by the Niners in Lambeau 30-22 in a game that was not as close as the final score indicates. The Packers offense is what did them in, as LY’s #4 defense SF got the better of LY’s #3 offense GB. I have been extremely bearish on the Pack all summer, and while the way this game went down surprised even me, SF is a lot better team than almost anyone gives it credit for. This week GB faces a key divisional battle vs. rival CHI, and off the short week, it will be interesting to see what the Packers offense looks like Thursday night facing another strong defense that is ranked #8 off last week’s results (but facing rookie QB Andrew Luck and the Colts at home isn’t that solid a barometer), and was ranked #10 LY. Last team that needs a mention are the defending champ NYG, whom check in at #30 in performance ratings following their 24-17 opening home loss to DAL on Wednesday night. What went wrong in their opener? Pass defense was the major culprit, as the G-Men graded 0 in five of the six pass only categories – the only area they didn’t grade 0 was INT because they were able to pick off one. What’s good for NYG? Over their next 5 they do not face a team that is ranked inside the Top 12 of passing offenses based on last week’s games (and based on LY’s none of the five was Top 14 in passing offense). The NYG could certainly turn things around over the next handful of weeks, but as my readers know, I projected them to go 5-11/last place in NFC East this season, so I am not expecting any spectacular or a huge turnaround.
Next up, the last analysis for the week, here are my projected standings after Wk1. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
| |
NE
|
10.12
|
5.88
|
PHI
|
9.68
|
6.32
| |
NYJ
|
9.14
|
6.86
|
DAL
|
9.12
|
6.88
| |
BUF
|
7.39
|
8.61
|
WAS
|
8.45
|
7.55
| |
MIA
|
6.45
|
9.55
|
NYG
|
7.02
|
8.98
| |
AFC North
|
NFC North
| |||||
BAL
|
9.42
|
6.58
|
DET
|
9.58
|
6.42
| |
PIT
|
9.04
|
6.96
|
GB
|
9.15
|
6.85
| |
CIN
|
7.07
|
8.93
|
CHI
|
8.38
|
7.62
| |
CLE
|
4.95
|
11.05
|
MIN
|
7.02
|
8.98
| |
AFC South
|
NFC South
| |||||
HOU
|
11.30
|
4.70
|
ATL
|
8.93
|
7.07
| |
TEN
|
6.50
|
9.50
|
NO
|
7.99
|
8.01
| |
IND
|
5.45
|
10.55
|
CAR
|
7.93
|
8.07
| |
JAC
|
5.25
|
10.76
|
TB
|
6.75
|
9.25
| |
AFC West
|
NFC West
| |||||
DEN
|
9.66
|
6.34
|
SF
|
10.37
|
5.63
| |
SD
|
9.03
|
6.97
|
ARI
|
7.72
|
8.29
| |
OAK
|
7.01
|
8.99
|
SEA
|
7.00
|
9.00
| |
KC
|
6.84
|
9.16
|
STL
|
6.31
|
9.69
| |
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
| |||||
#6 PIT @ #3 DEN
|
#6 DAL @ #3 DET
| |||||
#5 NYJ @ #4 BAL
|
#5 GB @ #4 ATL
| |||||
#1 HOU
|
#1 SF
| |||||
#2 NE
|
#2 PHI
| |||||
For this week’s projected standings I only adjusted the major performance power rating of four teams – typically week to week they are between 5-8 changes – but since only one game has been played (it is never a good idea to react to one game), I stuck with only four adjustments to teams whose rating I felt was incorrect over the long haul of the season. Also of note, please remember, this exercise does not calibrate the standings – for more information on what that topic, click link above.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order I have the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process:
1
|
HOU
|
2
|
NE
|
3
|
SF
|
4
|
BAL
|
5
|
PIT
|
6
|
GB
|
6
|
DEN
|
8
|
PHI
|
9
|
NO
|
10
|
NYJ
|
10
|
ATL
|
12
|
DAL
|
13
|
SD
|
14
|
DET
|
14
|
CAR
|
16
|
WAS
|
17
|
CHI
|
18
|
NYG
|
19
|
SEA
|
19
|
OAK
|
21
|
ARI
|
22
|
BUF
|
23
|
KC
|
23
|
CIN
|
25
|
STL
|
26
|
MIN
|
27
|
MIA
|
28
|
TEN
|
29
|
TB
|
30
|
JAC
|
31
|
IND
|
32
|
CLE
|
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