New Orleans Saints: the Saints face a very back ended schedule as far as opponent strength goes when using my 2011 performance stats as the indicator – of their first 7 games six are vs. teams ranked #13 or worse (including four vs. teams ranked #20 or worse) with only one vs. the top ten (@ GB in Wk4); over their final 9 games five are vs. top 8 teams while only one opponent was ranked below #16! Talk about a definitive split between opponent strength! The Saints also face no back to back divisional contests, but do face one team off a bye, their trip to DEN on MNF in Wk7. They do however have a pair of back to back road games, first in Wks 7&8 (TB, DEN) which immediately follows their bye in Wk6, then in Wks 13&14 (ATL, NYG) which is offset by bookending their season with home games, and one midseason B2B home set in Wks 9&10. Weather should not be a factor in any of their road games as far as cold or snow goes, outside a small chance of in Wk14 at NYG. The Saints remain a Super Bowl contender, and will likely remain one as long as Drew Brees is under center, and with that comes primetime action – this year NO has a pair of SNF games, along with one each of MNF & TNF. Their SNF & MNF trio comes in a 5 week, 4 game stretch from Wks 5-9: Wk5 host SD on SNF, Wk6 BYE, Wk7 @ TB, Wk8 @ DEN on SNF (Broncos are coming off their bye) and Wk9 host PHI on MNF. That certainly is not a bad layout as the pair of short weeks comes before their bye, and before a MNF game; however following the PHI MNF contest they do host ATL in a key NFC South battle – and short weeks aren’t preferred prior to divisional contests, but the good news is they will be very familiar with their opponent so the shorter prep time will not be a grave impact. On the other hand, their lone TNF game doesn’t come at a great time – it actually comes right in the middle of a brutal, very key three game stretch from Wks 12-14: SF, @ ATL on TNF, @ NYG. What stands out to me is both of their short weeks that could have an impact are both leading up a Falcons game – and ATL obviously remains one of the key rivals for NO. That is certainly a topic to keep an eye on. Overall it’s pretty clear what NO faces this year – easy opponents early, tougher late, spread out divisional contests, and not any expected terrible weather which should all equal being in the mix for the NFC South at the very least. Just keep a special eye on the ATL games as they both will be impacted by short weeks.
Carolina Panthers: the Panthers have one of the toughest slates of divisional action early in the season across the entire NFL as they will play 3 of their opening 4 vs. NFC South teams, @ TB in Wk1, hosting NO in Wk2, @ ATL in Wk4 with a game hosting the G-Men thrown in for good measure in Wk3. Following a rather early bye in Wk6, CAR doesn’t play another division game till Wk11, and then plays one every 3 weeks finishing up @ NO Wk17. Three of their final five games will be against the AFC West, two of which are on the road in SD and KC. CAR does not face any teams off a bye, nor any 3 straight home or road games all season. Cam Newton has certainly brought a new wave of excitement to the franchise, and the NFL has recognized that featuring CAR twice in primetime – Wk3 hosting NYG on TNF (which will not be easy at all and is a big time sandwich game as CAR will be coming off a pair of divisional contests in the opening two weeks including hosting NO in their home opener the week prior, and faces a road trip to ATL the following week – but at least they will get some 10 days to prepare for that one), and Wk12 travelling to PHI for a MNF showdown of Vick vs. Newton. Following their bye week, as things stand now, they will play nine of eleven at 1pm, along with the MNF’er with PHI, and a late start when they visit SD in Wk15. However, they could certainly see some of their second half games get flexed to the national, late time slot, with possibilities including hosting DEN in Wk10, hosting ATL in Wk14, and @ NO to close the season. In one last tidbit of favorable scheduling, CAR only plays two games outside the eastern time zone: @ KC and @ DEN – so no trips to the west coast. With a schedule that will be in the top third of the league as far as opponent strength, it will take an upgrade of play by both Newton and their defense to truly challenge NO and possibly ATL for the NFC South crown. But with a talented bright young star under center, the future appears to be bright for CAR, and they just might make us throw on our sunglasses this year!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: the 2011 campaign was a true disaster for the Bucs, as they certainly had bigger plans coming off a successful 2010 season – but it wasn’t meant to be as the schedule toughened, some bounces they got in 2010 didn’t go their way, and Josh Freeman didn’t play nearly as well – which all led to the firing of HC Raheem Morris. It’s a fresh start down in Tampa, but sadly for them the schedule will only get tougher in 2012 as using my initial power ratings their schedule checks in @ #3 this year, evenly balanced in strength between home and road. But taking a closer look at their schedule reveals one important piece of information – most of a schedules perceived strength or weakness using numbers and/or power ratings is a team’s division – not including NFC South teams, TB only plays two games vs. top 15 teams from a year ago - @ DAL and hosting PHI. The reason that is pointed out is divisional matchups tend to be closer, tighter games because team’s are so familiar with each other – so even the best teams often lose to the worst teams in the same division because of this level of familiarity – they know how to handle each other from both offensive and defensive perspectives. The Bucs have a nice layout of their divisional games this coming season, only once facing back to back rivals Wks 11&12 @ CAR and hosting ATL. They also appear to have avoided any potentially brutal weather, with the small chance we could see something nasty in DEN Wk13. With last year’s slip comes the lack of night games, as the Bucs only have one TNF game, Wk8 @ MIN – that will not be an easy trip as that contest is off hosting NO, a game in which the Saints come in off their bye. Overall this isn’t a brutally awful schedule, but with all the changes TB had this offseason including in my opinion an extremely questionable HC hiring, and the struggles they endured last year, it may be too much to overcome in hopes of challenging for a playoff berth.
Atlanta Falcons: along with the Philadelphia Eagles, ATL appears to have the toughest slate in the NFL as far as layout goes. Three times this year the Falcons will face a team that is coming off a bye week, which is second only to PHI – at least when ATL travels to PHI in Wk8 both teams will be coming off bye’s, which essentially lowers that figure’s impact. In a definite scheduling oddity, the Falcons open the season with three straight vs. the AFC West, and complete their portion of the inter-conference schedule by Wk6! After a decently placed bye in Wk7, the schedule, especially from a division games perspective, really heats up. Wks 10-14 features four divisional matchups, with a visit from ARI sandwiched in between. What’s more, three of those four divisional contests are on the road, with the only home game a visit from the Saints. The ten games after the bye week feature almost exclusively teams thinking playoffs, and no AFC teams – increasing the importance of each and every game. Along with the 5 divisional contests ATL faces PHI, DAL, ARI, NYG, and DET – again, all teams that have designs on making the playoffs. Yikes. Talk about an absolute deathtrap that lasts ten weeks! In one more oddity they play no back to back home or road games, alternating home and away each week starting with a Wk1 road game. ATL will be featured four times in primetime, including a pair of TNF games, along with one each of MNF and SNF. Their lone MNF game comes in Wk2 hosting DEN, then off the short week they must travel across the country to battle with SD in Wk3. That will be extremely tough, especially considering they are not very familiar with the Chargers. As far as their TNF duo goes, they host NO in Wk13 which is off a trip to TB; and they travel to DET to face the Lions off a home game vs. NYG. As if ATL didn’t have enough scheduling oddities discussed above, the last and final one is they are currently only scheduled to play one 4pm start all season. Summing it all up, I find it hard to visualize ATL making a push towards a playoff berth this season with all they will have to overcome scheduling wise. They may start strong, but the brutality of their last 2.5 months will eventually catch up with them.Check back tomorrow for our final installment, the NFC West.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to share any comments you may have with me here on the blog, or via email.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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