To show how I apply statistics and power ratings to various
matchups here is a look at each of the three conference tournaments tipping off
today.
|
SEED
|
TEAM
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
RATING
|
|
2
|
Manhattan
|
135
|
105
|
240
|
56
|
-0.016
|
236
|
106
|
129.0
|
|
1
|
Iona
|
145
|
59
|
204
|
173
|
0.073
|
219
|
131
|
127.0
|
|
3
|
Quinnipiac
|
152
|
74
|
226
|
91
|
-0.055
|
214
|
136
|
126.0
|
|
4
|
Canisius
|
156
|
53
|
209
|
150
|
-0.028
|
203
|
158
|
125.0
|
|
5
|
Siena
|
118
|
71
|
189
|
228
|
0.008
|
190
|
181
|
123.5
|
|
11
|
Niagara
|
126
|
54
|
180
|
253
|
0.029
|
185
|
192
|
123.0
|
|
10
|
Fairfield
|
64
|
106
|
170
|
282
|
0.048
|
178
|
208
|
122.0
|
|
6
|
Marist
|
105
|
69
|
174
|
271
|
0.009
|
176
|
214
|
122.0
|
|
8
|
Rider
|
119
|
57
|
176
|
265
|
-0.024
|
172
|
221
|
121.0
|
|
9
|
Monmouth
|
107
|
86
|
193
|
214
|
-0.112
|
171
|
222
|
121.0
|
|
7
|
Saint Peter's
|
87
|
96
|
183
|
243
|
-0.116
|
162
|
244
|
120.0
|
There are my ratings for each MAAC team this season. Manhattan has performed the best from this
conference on both a non-SOS adjusted (#56) and SOS-adjusted (#106) basis this
season. Despite that the Jaspers head
into this conference tournament as the #2 seed behind #1 Iona, with #3
Quinnipiac also in the mix for the only bid this conference will receive to the
NCAA Tournament.
Examining tonight’s action in the opening round:
Rider -3 vs. Monmouth: my ratings suggest this should be
closer to a PK game, and since typically underdogs are better bets on neutral
courts I would lean towards Monmouth in this game from a strict statistical
perspective – but you also must recognize other variables come into play when
deciding on a selection. Rider won both
regular season meetings, but is 1-0-1 ATS pushing a 6pt home win in late
January. These teams haven’t met since
that matchup, and based on other variables Monmouth seems to have solid value
here.
St. Peter’s -2.5 vs. Fairfield: my ratings suggest this game
should be Fairfield -2 so we have about 4.5 “value points” here. St. Peter’s won both regular season matchups
between these teams but both victories came by just 1 point, with the road team
covering as an underdog in each matchup.
Fairfield not only has the value, but also some strong situational data
supporting them as a play this evening.
Marist -4 vs. Niagara: my ratings suggest this should be
Niagara -1 so we have about 5 value points here. Considering Niagara has performed better on a
non-SOS adjusted & SOS adjusted basis suggests there is clear value on the
Purple Eagles tonight. These teams split
their regular season matchups with the home team winning & covering each
game. Marist has enjoyed the statistical
edge on their meetings this season however – which shows why handicapping is
more of an art vs. a science – what should you weigh more, season performance
or performance in head to head matchups when talking statistics?
*Always remember regular season contests between teams plays
a big part in potential outcomes in the conference tournament, as does how well
or poorly a team is playing at this moment.
But using power ratings are usually a strong guide as deviations of more
than 4 points are suggestive of value by itself.
|
SEED
|
TEAM
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
RATING
|
|
1
|
Wichita State
|
149
|
146
|
295
|
7
|
0.059
|
312.5
|
31
|
138.0
|
|
3
|
Northern Iowa
|
125
|
90
|
215
|
133
|
0.225
|
263.3
|
78
|
132.0
|
|
2
|
Indiana State
|
113
|
104
|
217
|
127
|
0.080
|
234.4
|
107
|
128.5
|
|
5
|
Illinois State
|
105
|
90
|
195
|
204
|
0.137
|
221.8
|
128
|
127.0
|
|
8
|
Drake
|
100
|
97
|
197
|
196
|
0.113
|
219.2
|
130
|
127.0
|
|
4
|
Missouri State
|
112
|
90
|
202
|
182
|
0.049
|
211.9
|
141
|
126.0
|
|
6
|
Southern Illinois
|
104
|
96
|
200
|
187
|
0.040
|
208.1
|
148
|
125.5
|
|
7
|
Bradley
|
81
|
104
|
185
|
239
|
-0.039
|
177.8
|
210
|
122.0
|
|
9
|
Evansville
|
88
|
64
|
152
|
322
|
0.066
|
162.1
|
243
|
120.0
|
|
10
|
Loyola (IL)
|
68
|
90
|
158
|
310
|
-0.042
|
151.3
|
261
|
119.0
|
Here is the way the MVC looks to us this season. Wichita State has been the biggest story of
the college basketball season posting an undefeated 31-0 mark to date – but how
good a team are they really is what people want to know? In our model they rate 7th best on
a non-SOS adjusted basis, but when taking into account strength of schedule we
slide them down to 31st. Too
far a drop? Perhaps, but that is what
the model shows. We do show they are
approximately 6 points better than the 2nd best MVC team, Northern
Iowa, and 9.5 points better than the 3rd MVC team, Indiana State –
which are extremely big variances amongst teams in the same conference.
Examining tonight’s action in the opening round:
Drake -2.5 vs. Evansville: we have this # closer to Drake
-7, suggesting some value on the Bulldogs tonight. These teams split their regular season
matchups with each home team prevailing and covering.
Bradley -2.5 vs. Loyola Chicago: we have this # at Bradley
-3, right on target with current #’s.
Bradley has won & covered both regular season meetings.
|
SEED
|
TEAM
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
SOS
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
RATING
|
|
2
|
Brigham Young
|
164
|
64
|
228
|
82
|
0.293
|
294.7
|
52
|
136.0
|
|
4
|
Saint Mary's
|
141
|
113
|
254
|
25
|
0.155
|
293.2
|
53
|
136.0
|
|
1
|
Gonzaga
|
139
|
103
|
242
|
50
|
0.178
|
285.1
|
56
|
135.0
|
|
3
|
San Francisco
|
149
|
80
|
229
|
78
|
0.208
|
276.6
|
66
|
134.0
|
|
8
|
Pacific
|
133
|
77
|
210
|
148
|
0.243
|
261.1
|
80
|
132.0
|
|
6
|
San Diego
|
97
|
110
|
207
|
157
|
0.128
|
233.5
|
109
|
128.5
|
|
10
|
Loyola Marymount
|
128
|
58
|
186
|
234
|
0.250
|
232.6
|
110
|
128.5
|
|
9
|
Santa Clara
|
120
|
82
|
202
|
182
|
0.141
|
230.5
|
112
|
128.5
|
|
7
|
Portland
|
140
|
75
|
215
|
133
|
0.054
|
226.7
|
117
|
128.0
|
|
5
|
Pepperdine
|
113
|
62
|
175
|
268
|
0.146
|
200.6
|
162
|
124.5
|
Lastly for today here is the WCC, which actually has 5 teams
ranked in the Top 80 teams in the country.
We also see more variability here where team record/rating may not tie
into their true performance – for example Pepperdine is the #5 seed yet
according to our model they have played the worst basketball in the entire conference
this season. Right now this conference
has Gonzaga who is a lock for a bid, any BYU who is currently clearly on the
right side of the bubble but may have to avoid a first round loss in this
tournament to secure their spot. The
remaining teams would need to win the conference’s automatic bid, and judging
by the ratings above it seems St. Mary’s (although it’s been a down year for
the Gaels), San Francisco and possibly Pacific may have a shot at making that
run.
Examining tonight’s action:
Portland -3.5 vs. Loyola Marymount: we would set this #
closer to a PK, suggesting there is some value on backing the Lions in this
one. Portland has won and covered both
regular season matchups, and the public is currently backing the Pilots making
a stronger case for a Marymount selection here.
Pacific -2 vs. Santa Clara: this # is very close to our
Pacific -3.5 line. These teams split in
the regular season with each winning & covering on their homecourt.
*Remember, as the postseason is upon us most games will be
taking place on neutral courts. The
public will typically back a lot of small favorites not understanding that
neutral courts often result in closer games when teams are equally focused mentally
and emotionally. Do not be afraid to
buck the public and back underdogs that are getting no love.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment