The SportsBoss: 2014 NCAA Tournament – Title & Regional Odds using SBPI Simulations

Here is an update on where each team’s odds stand according to running 1,000 simulations with the SBPI as the determining variable

First looking at winning the championship:

	TOURNEY	SWEET 16
TEAM	WIN TITLE %	WIN TITLE %	REGION	SEED	SBPI RANK
ARIZONA	22.6%	15.5%	WEST	1	2
FLORIDA	17.5%	40.2%	SOUTH	1	1
VILLANOVA	11.2%	N/A	EAST	2
DUKE	6.5%	N/A	SOUTH	3
LOUISVILLE	5.3%	7.9%	MIDWEST	4	4
VIRGINIA	5.2%	4.7%	EAST	1	12
TENNESSEE	4.4%	10.9%	MIDWEST	11	3
VCU	3.2%	N/A	SOUTH	5
MICHIGAN	2.1%	1.9%	MIDWEST	2	15
KANSAS	1.6%	N/A	SOUTH	2
BAYLOR	1.1%	2.0%	WEST	6	11
SYRACUSE	0.9%	N/A	SOUTH	3
UCLA	0.2%	0.7%	SOUTH	4	22
MEMPHIS	0.2%	N/A	EAST	8
PROVIDENCE	0.2%	N/A	EAST	11
OKLAHOMA	0.2%	N/A	WEST	5
KENTUCKY	0.2%	1.8%	MIDWEST	8	14
GONZAGA	0.1%	N/A	WEST	8
CREIGHTON	0.1%	N/A	WEST	3
OREGON	0.1%	N/A	WEST	7
BYU	0.1%	N/A	WEST	10
WISCONSIN	N/A	5.8%	WEST	2	6
MICHIGAN ST	N/A	3.6%	EAST	4	17
SAN DIEGO ST	N/A	2.6%	WEST	4	13
IOWA ST	N/A	1.7%	EAST	3	23
UCONN	N/A	0.4%	EAST	7	32
DAYTON	N/A	0.3%	SOUTH	11	35
STANFORD	N/A	N/A	SOUTH	10	34

Stanford is the only team that is still alive that won zero of our 1,000 simluations.

Next let’s take a look at each region – first up EAST:

	START	SWEET 16
TEAM	WIN %	WIN %	SEED
VILLANOVA	43.2%	N/A	2
VIRGINIA	24.7%	33.0%	1
MICHIGAN STATE	12.8%	33.6%	4
CINCINNATI	6.1%	N/A	5
IOWA STATE	4.5%	20.3%	3
PROVIDENCE	3.7%	N/A	11
NORTH CAROLINA	2.8%	N/A	6
UCONN	1.0%	13.1%	7
MEMPHIS	0.6%	N/A	8
GEORGE WASHINGTON	0.4%	N/A	9
HARVARD	0.1%	N/A	12
ST. JOSEPHS	0.1%	N/A	10
COASTAL CAROLINA	0.0%	N/A	16
DELAWARE	0.0%	N/A	13
UNC CENTRAL	0.0%	N/A	14
MILWAUKEE	0.0%	N/A	15

This appears to be the most up-for-grabs region with every team having at least a 13.1% chance at reaching the Final Four.

Next up let’s examine the SOUTH:

	START	SWEET 16
TEAM	WIN %	WIN %	SEED
FLORIDA	41.9%	77.4%	1
OHIO STATE	18.3%	N/A	6
VCU	13.8%	N/A	5
KANSAS	10.4%	N/A	2
PITT	6.2%	N/A	9
SYRACUSE	6.0%	N/A	3
UCLA	1.9%	9.3%	4
COLORADO	0.7%	N/A	8
STANFORD	0.7%	7.8%	10
NEW MEXICO	0.1%	N/A	7
ALBANY	0.0%	N/A	16
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN	0.0%	N/A	12
TULSA	0.0%	N/A	13
DAYTON	0.0%	5.5%	11
WESTERN MICHIGAN	0.0%	N/A	14
EASTERN KENTUCKY	0.0%	N/A	15

Florida remains the clear-cut leader in the South as the #1 team in the country. The winner on Florida vs. UCLA wins approximately 86 out of every 100 simulations.

Third we will examine the WEST:

	START	SWEET 16
TEAM	WIN %	WIN %	SEED
ARIZONA	48.5%	46.0%	1
WISCONSIN	21.1%	26.3%	2
SAN DIEGO STATE	14.1%	13.5%	4
BAYLOR	7.2%	14.2%	6
CREIGHTON	3.7%	N/A	3
OREGON	1.9%	N/A	7
OKLAHOMA	1.7%	N/A	5
OKLAHOMA STATE	0.9%	N/A	9
BYU	0.4%	N/A	10
GONZAGA	0.3%	N/A	8
NORTH DAKOTA STATE	0.1%	N/A	12
NEBRASKA	0.1%	N/A	11
WEBER ST	0.0%	N/A	16
NEW MEXICO STATE	0.0%	N/A	13
UL LAFAYETTE	0.0%	N/A	14
AMERICAN	0.0%	N/A	15

This region has moved the least compared to the other three with the top 4 that were projected before the tournament remaining the only 4 alive currently; the only big move was Baylor nearly doubling their chance at reaching the Final Four.

Last up here is the breakdown of the MIDWEST:

	START	SWEET 16
TEAM	WIN %	WIN %	SEED
DUKE	27.6%	N/A	3
LOUISVILLE	26.2%	33.9%	4
MICHIGAN	16.0%	13.0%	2
TENNESSEE	15.6%	36.2%	11
KENTUCKY	5.3%	16.9%	8
WICHITA STATE	3.7%	N/A	1
ST LOUIS	1.9%	N/A	5
KANSAS STATE	1.6%	N/A	9
ARIZONA STATE	0.8%	N/A	10
UMASS	0.5%	N/A	6
TEXAS	0.5%	N/A	7
NC STATE	0.3%	N/A	12
CAL POLY	0.0%	N/A	16
MANHATTAN	0.0%	N/A	13
MERCER	0.0%	N/A	14
WOFFORD	0.0%	N/A	15