|
OFFENSE
|
|
DEFENSE
|
|
TOTAL
|
|
Current Wins
|
|
Current SOS
|
|
TEAM
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|
SOS
|
RANK
|
|
Indiana
|
57
|
15
|
|
27
|
2
|
|
84
|
1
|
|
23
|
2
|
|
0.493
|
18
|
|
Minnesota
|
40
|
3
|
|
44
|
4
|
|
84
|
1
|
|
13
|
15
|
|
0.526
|
3
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
49
|
8
|
|
47
|
7
|
|
96
|
3
|
|
23
|
2
|
|
0.516
|
10
|
|
San Antonio
|
71
|
18
|
|
25
|
1
|
|
96
|
3
|
|
23
|
2
|
|
0.517
|
9
|
|
Charlotte
|
64
|
17
|
|
33
|
3
|
|
97
|
5
|
|
14
|
12
|
|
0.464
|
30
|
|
Portland
|
30
|
1
|
|
68
|
19
|
|
98
|
6
|
|
24
|
1
|
|
0.502
|
15
|
|
LA Clippers
|
39
|
2
|
|
60
|
12
|
|
99
|
7
|
|
20
|
6
|
|
0.512
|
12
|
|
Toronto
|
48
|
6
|
|
54
|
10
|
|
102
|
8
|
|
11
|
21
|
|
0.520
|
6
|
|
Houston
|
40
|
3
|
|
67
|
18
|
|
107
|
9
|
|
20
|
6
|
|
0.514
|
11
|
|
Detroit
|
49
|
8
|
|
63
|
15
|
|
112
|
10
|
|
14
|
12
|
|
0.501
|
16
|
|
Miami
|
55
|
11
|
|
60
|
12
|
|
115
|
11
|
|
22
|
5
|
|
0.475
|
26
|
|
Atlanta
|
71
|
18
|
|
45
|
5
|
|
116
|
12
|
|
16
|
10
|
|
0.478
|
23
|
|
Denver
|
48
|
6
|
|
68
|
19
|
|
116
|
12
|
|
14
|
12
|
|
0.508
|
13
|
|
Sacramento
|
50
|
10
|
|
66
|
17
|
|
116
|
12
|
|
8
|
26
|
|
0.530
|
2
|
|
Chicago
|
72
|
21
|
|
47
|
7
|
|
119
|
15
|
|
11
|
21
|
|
0.481
|
22
|
|
Washington
|
73
|
22
|
|
46
|
6
|
|
119
|
15
|
|
12
|
17
|
|
0.469
|
28
|
|
New Orleans
|
41
|
5
|
|
80
|
26
|
|
121
|
17
|
|
12
|
17
|
|
0.496
|
17
|
|
Memphis
|
58
|
16
|
|
65
|
16
|
|
123
|
18
|
|
12
|
17
|
|
0.518
|
8
|
|
Golden State
|
74
|
23
|
|
52
|
9
|
|
126
|
19
|
|
17
|
8
|
|
0.523
|
5
|
|
Dallas
|
56
|
13
|
|
81
|
27
|
|
137
|
20
|
|
16
|
10
|
|
0.508
|
13
|
|
Phoenix
|
56
|
13
|
|
81
|
27
|
|
137
|
20
|
|
17
|
8
|
|
0.520
|
6
|
|
Cleveland
|
78
|
25
|
|
61
|
14
|
|
139
|
22
|
|
10
|
23
|
|
0.476
|
25
|
|
Orlando
|
85
|
28
|
|
56
|
11
|
|
141
|
23
|
|
8
|
26
|
|
0.483
|
20
|
|
Brooklyn
|
55
|
11
|
|
89
|
29
|
|
144
|
24
|
|
9
|
24
|
|
0.482
|
21
|
|
New York
|
74
|
23
|
|
70
|
22
|
|
144
|
24
|
|
9
|
24
|
|
0.484
|
19
|
|
Boston
|
79
|
26
|
|
70
|
22
|
|
149
|
26
|
|
12
|
17
|
|
0.474
|
27
|
|
LA Lakers
|
83
|
27
|
|
76
|
24
|
|
159
|
27
|
|
13
|
15
|
|
0.526
|
3
|
|
Philadelphia
|
91
|
30
|
|
68
|
19
|
|
159
|
27
|
|
8
|
26
|
|
0.477
|
24
|
|
Milwaukee
|
86
|
29
|
|
76
|
24
|
|
162
|
29
|
|
6
|
30
|
|
0.468
|
29
|
|
Utah
|
71
|
18
|
|
103
|
30
|
|
174
|
30
|
|
8
|
26
|
|
0.539
|
1
|
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team
down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the
highest correlation to team success. One
aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to our
NFL ratings that are best when higher.
We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be
over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups
could produce more or less points.
Biggest movers
over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking: MIA +5, SA+4,
CLE +4, DET +3, NO (6), TOR (4)
Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the
win/loss column through yesterday’s games (12/26), here are a few teams to be
both bullish and bearish on:
Bullish (looking
for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested
statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 2nd
consecutive week
Bearish (opposite
of Bullish comments above): Phoenix for 2nd consecutive week
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
HOME
|
ROAD
|
|
TEAM
|
Power Rating
|
Power Rating
|
|
Indiana
|
117.5
|
113.0
|
|
Minnesota
|
116.0
|
113.0
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
115.9
|
111.4
|
|
San Antonio
|
114.9
|
111.4
|
|
Charlotte
|
113.3
|
111.3
|
|
Portland
|
115.1
|
111.1
|
|
LA Clippers
|
115.0
|
111.0
|
|
Toronto
|
112.6
|
110.6
|
|
Houston
|
113.4
|
109.9
|
|
Detroit
|
111.3
|
109.3
|
|
Miami
|
112.9
|
108.9
|
|
Atlanta
|
112.2
|
108.7
|
|
Denver
|
111.2
|
108.7
|
|
Sacramento
|
110.7
|
108.7
|
|
Chicago
|
110.8
|
108.3
|
|
Washington
|
110.8
|
108.3
|
|
New Orleans
|
110.6
|
108.1
|
|
Memphis
|
109.8
|
107.8
|
|
Golden State
|
110.9
|
107.4
|
|
Dallas
|
109.4
|
105.9
|
|
Phoenix
|
109.4
|
105.9
|
|
Cleveland
|
108.2
|
105.7
|
|
Orlando
|
107.4
|
105.4
|
|
Brooklyn
|
107.0
|
105.0
|
|
New York
|
107.0
|
105.0
|
|
Boston
|
106.3
|
104.3
|
|
LA Lakers
|
105.5
|
103.0
|
|
Philadelphia
|
105.0
|
103.0
|
|
Milwaukee
|
104.6
|
102.6
|
|
Utah
|
103.0
|
101.0
|
These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Let’s
examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can
identify some teams to target:
Oklahoma City (-9)
@ Charlotte: my power ratings suggest this # should be CHA -2 so we
have a definite opportunity here to take advantage of value in this #. What’s more in this matchup is we are playing
on a home barking dog, even better. One
area to remember is even though the Bobcats rank well in our ratings they have
played the 30th toughest schedule to date – which is certainly
inflating their numbers & performance some.
Even considering that point this is probably too many points, especially
with the public currently backing the Thunder.
Detroit (-3.5) @
Orlando: my power ratings suggest this # should be DET -2, right on
target.
Milwaukee @
Brooklyn (-5): my power ratings suggest this # should be BRO -4.5,
right on target.
Toronto (-2) @ New
York: my power ratings suggest this # should be TOR -3.5, right on
target.
Washington @
Minnesota (-6): my power ratings suggest this # should be MIN -7.5,
right on target.
Denver @ New
Orleans (-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -2, right
on target.
LA Lakers @ Utah
(-4): my power ratings suggest this # should be about a Pick, but there
is certainly some built in adjustment for the Lakers missing many of their injured
All Stars, who have played some and contributed this season. Because of the significant injury factor with
the Lakers we would not use this variance as potential value.
Miami (-7.5) @
Sacramento: my power ratings suggest this # should be about SAC -2 so
we have another opportunity to fade one of the best teams in the NBA as a “bigger
than they should be” road favorite. The
Kings check in right behind the Heat in performance to date, but their
performance has come against the 2nd toughest schedule in the NBA,
while the Heat have cruised playing one of the easiest schedules thanks to
residing in the Eastern Conference. The
Kings have definite value tonight as another barking home dog.
Phoenix @ Golden
State (-6): my power ratings suggest this # should be GS -5, right on
target.
Remember, although there were only two games we identified
as having value this evening there are many other ways you should be
handicapping NBA games, which would present further opportunities this evening.
Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical
buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end. The SU projected wins are based on the same
statistics as the Performance Ratings but plugged into a tested regression
formula weighting each statistic/metric on their true impact on wins:
|
Current Wins
|
|
ATS Wins
|
|
Projected Wins
|
|
TEAM
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|
Wins
|
RANK
|
|
Indiana
|
23
|
2
|
|
20
|
1
|
|
60.21
|
2
|
|
Minnesota
|
13
|
15
|
|
15
|
11
|
|
46.53
|
12
|
|
Oklahoma City
|
23
|
2
|
|
16
|
8
|
|
54.53
|
5
|
|
San Antonio
|
23
|
2
|
|
16
|
8
|
|
57.98
|
3
|
|
Charlotte
|
14
|
12
|
|
17
|
5
|
|
41.06
|
18
|
|
Portland
|
24
|
1
|
|
18
|
4
|
|
49.25
|
6
|
|
LA Clippers
|
20
|
6
|
|
19
|
3
|
|
54.73
|
4
|
|
Toronto
|
11
|
21
|
|
12
|
20
|
|
43.97
|
14
|
|
Houston
|
20
|
6
|
|
17
|
5
|
|
49.04
|
7
|
|
Detroit
|
14
|
12
|
|
14
|
15
|
|
48.35
|
9
|
|
Miami
|
22
|
5
|
|
13
|
16
|
|
61.92
|
1
|
|
Atlanta
|
16
|
10
|
|
17
|
5
|
|
43.55
|
15
|
|
Denver
|
14
|
12
|
|
12
|
20
|
|
42.57
|
16
|
|
Sacramento
|
8
|
26
|
|
9
|
29
|
|
31.56
|
23
|
|
Chicago
|
11
|
21
|
|
10
|
27
|
|
32.70
|
22
|
|
Washington
|
12
|
17
|
|
15
|
11
|
|
40.39
|
19
|
|
New Orleans
|
12
|
17
|
|
11
|
22
|
|
45.66
|
13
|
|
Memphis
|
12
|
17
|
|
9
|
29
|
|
37.32
|
20
|
|
Golden State
|
17
|
8
|
|
13
|
16
|
|
48.30
|
10
|
|
Dallas
|
16
|
10
|
|
15
|
11
|
|
47.44
|
11
|
|
Phoenix
|
17
|
8
|
|
20
|
1
|
|
48.94
|
8
|
|
Cleveland
|
10
|
23
|
|
11
|
22
|
|
29.58
|
25
|
|
Orlando
|
8
|
26
|
|
13
|
16
|
|
30.11
|
24
|
|
Brooklyn
|
9
|
24
|
|
11
|
22
|
|
25.33
|
26
|
|
New York
|
9
|
24
|
|
10
|
27
|
|
42.47
|
17
|
|
Boston
|
12
|
17
|
|
15
|
11
|
|
34.83
|
21
|
|
LA Lakers
|
13
|
15
|
|
16
|
8
|
|
25.10
|
27
|
|
Philadelphia
|
8
|
26
|
|
11
|
22
|
|
18.40
|
29
|
|
Milwaukee
|
6
|
30
|
|
11
|
22
|
|
19.73
|
28
|
|
Utah
|
8
|
26
|
|
13
|
16
|
|
16.76
|
30
|
This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years
at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings
but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular
season. Based on these projections as of
12/26 the playoffs would set up like this:
Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 58-24
#2 LA Clippers 55-27
#3 Oklahoma City 55-27
#4 Portland 49-33
#5 Houston 49-33
#6 Phoenix 49-33
#7 Golden State 48-34
#8 Dallas 47-35
Eastern Conference
#1 Miami 62-20
#2 Indiana 60-22
#3 Detroit 48-34
#4 Toronto 44-38
#5 Atlanta 44-38
#6 New York 42-40
#7 Charlotte 41-41
#8 Washington 40-42
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