It’s
never too early to take a look at the upcoming college football season! With that in mind here is our second
conference & division analysis – today we examine the SEC West.
The SEC
West division is typically among the best, if not right at the top, of
divisions in college football. Certainly
having Alabama in it helps as the Tide always finds itself near the top of the
rankings, but schools like LSU & Auburn typically reside in the Top 15ish,
while the other four have all had their moments & posted a Top 20 team
within the last five years. There really
is no annual weak link; combine that with Alabama & you have the makings of
a difficult division.
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2017
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2016 OFF
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2017
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2016 DEF
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2017
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2016
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SCHOOL
|
OFF RS
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RATING
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RANK
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DEF RS
|
RATING
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RANK
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TOT RS
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RATING
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RANK
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ALABAMA
|
6
|
143.7
|
2
|
5
|
163.7
|
1
|
11
|
307.4
|
1
|
|
LSU
|
6
|
109.5
|
31
|
5
|
146.1
|
5
|
11
|
255.6
|
7
|
|
AUBURN
|
8
|
114.5
|
23
|
7
|
115.6
|
14
|
15
|
230.1
|
13
|
|
ARKANSAS
|
7
|
110.0
|
29
|
6
|
76.3
|
51
|
13
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186.3
|
39
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|
TEXAS A&M
|
5
|
104.4
|
38
|
7
|
79.7
|
45
|
12
|
184.1
|
41
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MISSISSIPPI
|
5
|
101.8
|
44
|
6
|
60.6
|
78
|
11
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162.4
|
60
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|
MISSISSIPPI STATE
|
7
|
104.5
|
37
|
6
|
47.5
|
97
|
13
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152.0
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70
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Here is a summary in bullet form of some of the division
wide trends that stand out:
·
Somewhat counterintuitive to what you would
think the schools in this division are strong offensively – last season each of
the seven ranked inside the Top 44 offenses in the country.
·
Five of the seven schools return their QB; however
both Texas A&M and Ole Miss should be in decent shape with Jake Hubenak
(Jr.) and Shea Patterson (So.) returning respectively after getting some action
last year.
·
Defense is what separates these teams into their
usual tiers; Alabama, LSU & Auburn are more times than not in the mix deep
into the season – and it’s not a coincidence those three ranked inside the Top
14 defenses in the country last year while the other four schools ranked 45+.
·
Just ONE team (Auburn) returns more than the average
13.4 returning starters; they return 15 (8/7) including transfer Baylor QB
Jarrett Stidham.
·
This division houses FIVE potentially “elite”
units: Alabama offense and defense, LSU defense, Auburn offense and defense.
·
Three teams ranked in the SBPI Top 13 last
season & I expect more of the same from Alabama, LSU & Auburn in 2017.
·
The West division has won the SEC Championship nine
straight seasons.
Way too early projected order of finish (school, odds to
win national championship, odds to win SEC):
1.
Alabama
(+340, -230): of course the Tide check in at the top as they have won
the division & SEC Championship Game in each of the last three seasons and
four of the last five (they are one shy of tying Florida at 12 SEC Championship
Game appearances). Their running game
will be very effective once again, and although they are replacing half of
their defense that has NEVER been a problem since Saban has been in
Tuscaloosa. Bama does open in Atlanta
vs. FSU – but as we have seen annually they typically face a good team in their
opener and hammer them thoroughly – will this year be any different? In conference play they have four road games –
Vandy, TAMU, MSU, Auburn – which is very light outside the finale. Look for Alabama to have a maximum of one
loss heading onto the Plains on Saturday November 25th.
2.
Auburn
(30/1, 7/1): they had a lot of trouble scoring points last year,
especially when facing ranked teams as they posted an 8-5 record that included
2-4 vs. ranked teams. In their five
losses they scored 13, 16, 7, 12 and 19 points – clearly not getting the job
done. Due to that, and no blue chip QB
on the roster, they made a move for former Baylor QB Jarrett Stidham – who has
the best arm & most talent Auburn has had since Cam Newton was on the
Plains. The biggest question there is
can Stidham’s game fit into what Auburn is trying to do offensively? If he performs as he did in their Spring game
the answer is a resounding yes! The
Tigers travel to Clemson in Week 2 for a titanic battle – a win there and they
certainly control their own destiny.
Even with a loss in Death Valley if they win out they also likely
control their destiny. Their four
conference road games are at Missouri in late September then a streak of THREE
STRAIGHT roadies in late October/early November (with one bye mixed in) against
LSU, Arkansas and Texas A&M. At
least the LSU game comes at the beginning of that stretch but that won’t be
easy, even with the aforementioned bye coming before they travel to College
Station. Hosting Alabama in the finale
will have an impact on the SEC West title & likely the CFB Playoff.
3.
LSU
(20/1, 5.5/1): Ed Orgeron got the job – but was that the right
move? Time will tell but it certainly
was a popular one in the locker room as Coach O is a player’s coach – but will
that translate to championships, which LSU expects? My opinion is no. These Tigers have five road games in conference
play – Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama & Tennessee which is
decent in division but facing both UF & UT on the road in cross-over action
is a tough draw. Despite “returning”
their starting QB there are still tons of questions at that spot – and no clear
answer as to if anyone on the roster can play that position at a high enough
level to challenge the best in college football – or the best in their own
division which includes Hurt & Stidham.
LSU is clearly a step behind the two above them in my projection – and
not sure when or if that changes with Orgeron on the sideline.
4.
Arkansas
(250/1, 50/1): no team has consistently won fewer games than their SBPI
would suggest than the Razorbacks – when will that change? They have a couple of critical metrics
seemingly pointing in a favorable direction heading into the 2017 campaign –
but we have seen that before & it did not pan out. Their clear issue is defense – in particular
allowing far too many points versus what their statistics suggest they should
allow. In last year’s six losses they
allowed 49, 45, 56, 38, 28 and 35 points – you just cannot win big games
against good teams consistently with those points allowed. Their slate has four road games (SCAR, BAMA,
MISS, LSU), two neutral games (Florida A&M and Texas A&M) along with
six home games. Facing both Alabama and
LSU on the road will be too much to overcome as far as winning the division –
but a 3rd place finish is attainable and should be considered a
strong season should they accomplish that.
A finish in the standings of 5th or worse has to start
pushing Bielema towards that hot seat.
5.
Texas
A&M (100/1, 42/1): the Aggies are one of only two SEC West teams
(Ole Miss) who do not return their starting QB from last season – although both
QBs taking the reigns played a decent amount last year. A&M lost four of their last five &
five of their last seven last season – a theme we have seen from Sumlin’s team
too often over the years. In a stacked
SEC West they are clearly at least one cut, if not two (Alabama should be on
it’s own tier shouldn’t it?) behind the elite of the division – nothing this
year should change that as the Aggies are still stuck being a 7/8 win team. They have a slightly easier slate than Miss
State (and get the Bulldogs in College Station) and thus get the edge for 5th
in the division.
6.
Mississippi
State (300/1, 50/1): MSU returns a lot offensively with 7 starters back
in the fold including exciting dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald who brings back
memories of former MSU QB Dak Prescott – but can he bring the wins? What is holding the Dogs back is their
defense that ranked 97th in my SBPI last season & returns just 6
starters this year. Even with a terrible
defense their TOM was +7 which is solid – and even more cause for concern in
2017 as that figure is likely to take a step back towards even. With road games at Georgia, Auburn, Arkansas
and Texas A&M (the latter two being teams they will be battling for 4th
in the West) it’s tough to see them bettering last year’s finish which was tied
for 5th with Arkansas at 3-5.
7.
Ole
Miss (100/1, 66/1): the Rebels lose star QB Chad Kelly (drafted by the
Broncos) which makes it tough to see them escaping the West’s basement in
2017. Along with Alabama & LSU they
return just 11 starters (fewest in the SEC) which is well below the average of
13.4 across the country. They also had a
slightly favorable TOM in 2016 which is likely to take a turn for the worse as
they break in a young QB seeing his first full season duty. They open SEC play with back to back road
games against Alabama & Auburn – brutal.
It’s a clear uphill battle for the Rebels to just escape last place in
their division.
To summarize, as I sit in my office in mid June, I see the
SEC West as still one of the best divisions in the Power 5 conferences – at
least amongst top 3 teams with Alabama, Auburn and LSU. I see four tiers here because, after all,
Alabama probably does deserve their own tier:
Leader of the
Pack: Alabama
Contender:
Auburn (worthy of a wager on winning the national championship & SEC)
Middle of Pack:
LSU, Arkansas & Texas A&M
Bottom: Mississippi
State & Ole Miss
Alabama is a clear choice to return to the CFB Playoff and
challenge for the national championship (what else is new?) while neighbor
Auburn is a strong “sleeper” as they do host the Tide this year in the Iron
Bowl finale; how well Stidham plays on the Plains will determine the Tigers’
fate. LSU is always dangerous because of
their pure talent – but they still need some help offensively to become a
serious threat for the CFBP this season.
The bottom four teams should rank between 40-60 in the SBPI by season’s
end.
Be back soon with a Big Ten preview!
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