Using my performance ratings that I blog about on a weekly basis let’s examine a few angles on a game by game basis.
First, here are the top ten one game performances thru Wk14 of the 2012 season:
- DEN Wk4 vs. OAK: 137
- CHI Wk5 @ JAC: 136
- DEN Wk8 vs. NO: 135
- SF Wk5 vs. BUF: 134
- SEA Wk14 vs. ARI: 132
- HOU Wk7 vs. BAL: 128
- NYJ Wk6 vs. IND: 124
- SF Wk4 @ NYJ: 123
- HOU Wk2 @ JAC: 122
- WAS Wk11 vs. PHI: 122
From this list we can see the top three teams (DEN, SF, HOU) in my performance ratings all show up twice, consuming 60% of the top ten games to date.
Based on that information we know the ten worst performances of the season thus far were the opponents of the above games. The only opponent from that list who appears twice is JAC – which is no coincidence considering the Jaguars are currently playing to a grade of 59.9, slotting them at #32 in the NFL, which is in line with previous season’s lowest team.
Also of note when examining the performance ratings on a game by game basis here are the teams that have not reached the triple digit mark in any one game this season:
- Cleveland Browns: Top grade 94 Wk14 vs. KC. Lowest grade 40 Wk1 vs. PHI
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Top grade 95 Wk12 vs. TEN. Lowest grade 24 Wk5 vs. CHI
- New Orleans Saints: Top grade 97 Wk11 @ OAK. Lowest grade 26 Wk8 @ DEN
- Arizona Cardinals: Top grade 97 Wk7 @ MIN. Lowest grade 28 Wk14 @ SEA
Lastly, using the performance ratings, here are the teams that won the grading system in a game the least amount of times:
- Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans: 2
- Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals: 3
- Cleveland Browns: 4
Currently the Arizona Cardinals own the longest streak of not winning the performance grading system – their last 81+ grade in a game was Wk7 in Minnesota – a game they wound up losing 21-14.
Now let’s perform an analysis on key stats for each team – I will glance over each team’s page in my NFL 2012 file, and show what metrics stand out as potential indicators to success or failure. All records listed below are ATS unless otherwise noted. To give a feel for each metric here is the average, or 16th ranked value for each stat which can help you gauge how tough or easy it is to reach some of the levels discussed below:
|
#16 (Average)
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Yards per Rush
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4.20
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Rushing Yards
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112.3
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Rush Attempts
|
26.9
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First Downs Rushing
|
6.0
|
First Downs
|
19.5
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Yards per Pass Attempt
|
6.49
|
Completion %
|
61.1%
|
Completions
|
21.7
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Pass Attempts
|
34.9
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Passing Yards
|
235.5
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Sacks
|
2.1
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INT
|
0.9
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Passing TD
|
1.5
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QB Rating
|
84.03
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Yards per Play
|
5.50
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3rd & 4th Down Conversions
|
5.5
|
3rd & 4th Down Attempts
|
14.2
|
Conversion %
|
38.5%
|
- Arizona Cardinals (5-7-1): 0-4 as favorite. 2-5 on grass.
- Atlanta Falcons (7-5-1): 4-0 with positive turnover margin (TOM). 4-1-1 on grass. 2-0 as underdog. 8-1 rushing for 59+ yards.
- Baltimore Ravens (5-7-1): 0-4 with negative sack margin (SM). 0-3 with negative TOM. Played 6 games on turf & 7 on grass, ATS margin (ATSM) on turf +5.4 & grass (2.6). 2-6 making 2 or less sacks.
- Buffalo Bills (6-7): 1-6 with negative TOM. 0-4 with 120 or less rushing yards. 0-4 facing 31+ rush attempts. 0-4 allowing yards per pass attempt (YPA) of 6.0+. In 6 wins 22 sacks; in 7 losses just 10. 3-0 with 2+ INT made. 0-3 allowing 3+ TD passes.
- Carolina Panthers (6-7): 1-6 with negative SM. 0-3 with negative TOM. 5-1 rushing for 113+ yards. 22 or less rush attempts in 6 of 7 losses, 27+ in 6 wins. 1-7 with 8 or less first downs rushing. 1-4 throwing 1+ INT. 5-1 winning TOP. 3-0 making 3+ sacks.
- Chicago Bears (6-7): 0-5 with negative TOM. 5-2 with 20+ first downs. 3-1 with 20+ completions. 6-2 with 135+ passing yards. In 7 losses 27 sacks allowed, in 6 wins 11. 6-3 throwing 0/1 INT. 6-2 winning TOP. 5-1 facing 20 or less rush attempts. 1+ INT made in all 6 wins. 1-3 allowing 2+ TD passes.
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-6-1): 0-5-1 with 0 or negative SM. 7-1-1 scoring 20+ points. Only allowed more than 13 points in 1 win. 4-0 with 29+ rush attempts. Won TOP in 6 of 7 wins/push. 3+ sacks made in all 6 wins.
- Cleveland Browns (8-4-1): 3-1-1 in division games. 3-1 as underdog of 7+. 5-1 with positive TOM. 6-2 on grass. 7-1-1 rushing for 85+ yards. 6-0 with 28+ rush attempts. 7-1 with 36 or less pass attempts. 3-0 winning TOP. 1-4 facing 34+ rush attempts. 5-1-1 making 2+ sacks. 3-0 making 2+ INT.
- Dallas Cowboys (5-8): 0-5 as home favorite. 0-6 at home. 3-15 as home favorite since 2010. 2-12 at home since 2011. 1-5 with negative TOM. 4-1 rushing for 66+ yards. 4-1 with 25+ rush attempts. 0-3 throwing 2+ INT. 1-7 allowing 93+ rushing yards. 0-8 facing 24+ rush attempts.
- Denver Broncos (7-6): covered standard 6pt teaser in all 13 games. YPA of 7.4+ in all 7 wins, 7.2 or lower in all 6 losses. 0-3 with 40+ pass attempts. 2-5 allowing 2+ sacks. Triple digit QBR in 6 of 7 wins (only win that wasn’t triple digits was last week’s vs. OAK where Peyton Manning posted 90.7 QBR), 0-4 when QBR is 89 or less. 0-3 allowing opponent to rush for 92+ yards. 5-2 making 3+ sacks. 4-1 winning TOP.
- Detroit Lions (5-8): 1-5 with negative TOM. 2-5 on turf. 1-6 making 0 INT. Covered 12 of 13 Sweetheart Teasers, one they didn’t cover was a push.
- Green Bay Packers (7-6): 0-3 with negative TOM. YPA of 6.3 or less in 5 of 6 losses. 3-1 passing for 280+ yards. 2+ TD passes in 5 of 7 wins. 5-1 winning TOP. 1-4 facing 29+ rush attempts. 1-3 allowing 24+ completions. 4-0 making 2+ INT.
- Houston Texans (8-5): 0-4 with 0 or negative SM. 1-4 with 0 or negative TOM. Allowed 31+ points in 4 of 5 losses. 2-5 when throwing 1+ INT. 0-3 allowing 317+ passing yards.
- Indianapolis Colts (9-4): 8-2 L10 games. 54.0% or lower completions in all 4 losses. 44+ pass attempts in all 4 losses. 7-2 winning TOP. 0-3 facing 30+ rush attempts. 0-3 allowing 22+ first downs.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6-7): 5-1 as road underdog, 1-5 as home underdog, 1-6 at home. 1-6 when SM is (2) or worse. 0-4 with negative TOM. Have not scored more than 18 in any loss. 4-1 rushing for 86+ yards. 6-2 with 19+ rush attempts. 4-0 with 216+ passing yards. 1-6 throwing 1+ INT. 3-1 throwing 2+ TD passes. 0-7 allowing 138+ rushing yards. 1-7 facing 30+ rush attempts. 4-1 making 2+ sacks.
- Kansas City Chiefs (5-8): 1-5 with negative SM. 3-1 with 0 or positive TOM (they have not been + in one game all season). 3-1 rushing for 152+ yards. 5-1 with 31+ rush attempts. 4-1 with 28 or less pass attempts. 3-0 with 33:12+ TOP. 3-1 allowing 103 or less rushing yards. 4-1 allowing YPA of 7.0 or less. Average opponent QBR in 8 losses 110.2, in 5 wins 82.6.
- Miami Dolphins (5-7-1): 7-14 as home favorite since 2008. 1-4 with SM 0 or negative. 5-1-1 with 27+ rush attempts. 4-1 with YPA 5.7+. 4-1 with 60.0%+ completions. 1-4 with 36+ pass attempts. 2-6-1 passing for 201 yards or less. 2-7-1 allowing 83+ rushing yards. 4-0 facing 21 or less rush attempts. 4-0 holding opponent to 4.9 or less YPA. 1-5 when opponent has 60.6%+ completions. 4-1-1 making 1+ INT. 4-1-1 holding opponent to QBR 76.9 or less.
- Minnesota Vikings (5-7-1): 1-4 as favorite. 2-9 as favorite L2yrs. 1-5 on road. 5-1-1 with positive SM. 4-0 with positive TOM. 0-3 on grass. 4-0-1 allowing 22 or less points. 0-5 rushing for 145 or less yards. 4-0 with 30+ rush attempts. 4-1 allowing 0/1 sack. 3-1 with 31:33+ TOP. 4-1 allowing 112 or less rushing yards. 5-0-1 facing 29 or less rush attempts. 5-1-1 allowing 5 or less first downs rushing. 3-0-1 when opponent has 5.6 or less YPA.
- New England Patriots (8-4-1): all 4 losses came as favorite, 3 of the 4 as home favorite of 7+. NE has been + TOM in 10 of 13 games; the other 3 were 0. 1-4-1 with YPA of 6.6 or less. 0-3 with 42+ pass attempts. 5-1 with 298+ passing yards. 3-0 allowing 0 sacks. 1-2-1 throwing an INT; in 9 other games Brady has 0 INT. 5-0 with 3+ TD passes. 0-4-1 with QBR of 97.4 or less. QBR in 8 wins 116.1, in 4 losses and 1 push 82.5. 3-0 with 2+ INT made.
- New Orleans Saints (6-7): 2-7 with 0 or negative SM. 4-1 with 25+ rush attempts. 6-1 with YPA 6.7+, 0-6 with 6.6 or lower. 6-0 with 63.5%+ completions, 0-7 with 63.4% or lower. 3-1 with 336+ passing yards. 0-5 throwing 2+ INT. 6-0 with QBR 86.0+, 0-7 with 85.9 or worse. 6-1 with YPP 5.9+, 0-6 with 5.8 or lower. 5-0 allowing 123 or less rushing yards, 1-7 allowing 124+. 0-5 facing 30+ rush attempts, 6-2 facing 29 or less. 2-7 allowing 7+ first downs rushing. 1-4 allowing YPA 7.9+. 6-2 facing 34+ passing attempts, 0-5 facing 33 or less.
- New York Giants (6-6-1): 9-18 as home favorite since 2009. 2-0 as road underdog. 6-2 as road underdog since 2011. 0-3 with negative SM. 0-3-1 with 0 or negative TOM. 5-1 with +2 or better TOM. 0-4-1 rushing for 102 or less yards. 1-5-1 with 27 or less rush attempts, 5-1 with 29+. 0-3-1 with 38+ pass attempts. 1-3 throwing 2+ INT. 4-0 with 97.0+ QBR. 1-4-1 allowing 117+ rushing yards. 0-4-1 facing 27+ rush attempts. 0-4 allowing 7+ first downs rushing. 0-4-1 allowing 63.0%+ completions. 5-0 facing 31+ pass attempts. 1-5-1 with 0/1 INT made. 0-5-1 allowing QBR 85.0+.
- New York Jets (7-6): 9-4 as road favorite since 2009. 3-0 with positive TOM. 6-1 with 30+ rush attempts. 7-1 with 4.5+ YPA. 5-2 with 130+ passing yards. 4-0 allowing 0/1 sack. 5-1 with 63.7+ QBR. 5-1 with 4.7+ YPP. 0-3 allowing 7.6+ YPA. 0-3 facing 27 or less pass attempts. 1-5 making 0 INT. 6-2 allowing QBR of 72.0 or less. 5-2 winning TOP 31:18+.
- Oakland Raiders (3-10): 0-4 as favorite. 10-5 as road underdog L2yrs. 0-8 with negative TOM. 3-1 rushing for 100+ yards. 1-8 with YPA 7.4 or less. 1-10 with 69.6% or less completions. 1-9 with 34+ pass attempts. 1-9 with 95.0 or less QBR. 0-4 with 5.4 or less YPP. 1-7 allowing 3.1+ yards per rush. 0-7 allowing 103+ rushing yards. 0-9 facing 23+ rush attempts. 1-8 allowing 18+ first downs. 0-4 allowing 7.7+ YPA. 5 INT made in 3 wins, 4 in 10 losses. 1-5 allowing 2+ TD passes. 1-10 allowing QBR 64.0+. 1-7 allowing 5.7+ YPP.
- Philadelphia Eagles (3-9-1): 0-5 at home, have not been above .500 at home since 2008. Thrown 0 INT in 4 wins/push. Since Wk1 they have only made 3 INT, 0 in L7gms. Allowed triple digit QBR in 6 of L7 games, missing that mark in last week’s win over TB.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7-1): 12-5-1 as underdog since 2008 including 2-1-1 this year. 3-0 on turf for ATSM of +7.8; 2-7-1 on grass for ATSM of (3.7). 2-7 with yards per rush 4.4 or less. 3-0 with 137+ rushing yards. 1-6 with 95 or less rushing yards. 26+ rush attempts in all 5 wins. 0-6-1 with 67.5% or less completions. 3-1 with 40+ pass attempts. 1-6 allowing 94+ rushing yards. 0-4 facing 24+ rush attempts. 5-2-1 allowing 5.0 or less YPA. 0-5-1 allowing 19+ completions. 0-4 allowing 178+ passing yards. 0-6-1 allowing 69.3+ QBR.
- San Diego Chargers (6-7): despite sub .500 record they have covered 12 of 13 Sweetheart Teasers. 1-5 with negative TOM. 0-3 with 19 or less rush attempts. 1-5 with 5.0 or less YPA. 4-1 with completions above 64.0%. 2-7 with 34+ pass attempts. 1-4 with 0/1 TD pass. 4-1 with 89.2+ QBR. 1-3 allowing 127+ rushing yards. 1-4 facing 26+ rush attempts. Allowed YPA 5.9 or less in 5 of 6 wins (other 6.2 in last week’s win over PIT).
- Seattle Seahawks (9-4): 6-0 at home. 6-1 as underdog, winning 5 of 7 SU. 0-3 as road favorite. 0-4 as road favorite since 2010. Covered every 3tm/10pt teaser and 12 of 13 standard 6pt teasers. 5-0 with 35+ rush attempts. 8-2 with 6+ first downs rushing. 5-1 with 20+ first downs. 6-1 with 6.8+ YPA. 5-1 with 96.8+ QBR. 6-1 throwing 0 INT. 3-0 throwing 3+ TD passes. 7-1 allowing 5.3 or less YPA. 4-1 facing 37+ pass attempts. 5-0 making 3+ sacks.
- San Francisco Forty Niners (8-5): 0 or negative SM in all 5 losses. 0-3 with negative TOM. 6-1 with positive TOM. 5-1 with 5.5+ yards per rush. 0-5 with 5.5 or less YPA, 8-0 with 5.6+. 4-0 with 72.1%+ completions. 0-3 with 32+ pass attempts.
- St Louis Rams (9-4): negative TOM in all 4 losses. 6-0 with 0 or positive TOM. Average score in losses: 11.5-31.3. 4-0 with 115+ rushing yards. 9-0 with 24+ rush attempts. 3-0 with 20+ first downs. 4-0 with 6.7+ YPA. 4-1 with 39+ pass attempts. 6-0 with QBR 78.7+. 0-3 allowing 6.7+ YPA. 0-3 allowing 108.8+ QBR.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3-1): covered every 3tm/10pt teaser. 5-0 as road underdog. 12-5 as road underdog since 2010. 5-1 rushing for 99+ yards. 4-1 with 26+ rush attempts. 5-1 with 6+ first downs rushing. 6-2 with 18+ first downs. 5-1 with YPA 7.4+. 6-1 with QBR 81.7+. 5-1 allowing 3.0 or less yards per rush.
- Tennessee Titans (4-9): 2-6 on road. 2-8 with 0 or negative TOM. 3-0 with 21+ first downs. 3-1 when throwing 0 INT. 3-1 with QBR 81.0+. 3-1 with 9+ 3rd/4th down conversions. 3-0 facing 26 or less rush attempts.
- Washington Redskins (8-5): 4-1 as road underdog. 1-3 rushing for 152 or less yards. 0-3 with 29 or less rush attempts. 1-3 with 19 or less first downs. 0-5 with YPA 7.4 or less, 8-0 with 7.5+. 1-4 with 29+ pass attempts. 197 or less passing yards in all 5 losses. 0-5 with QBR 94.7 or less, 8-0 with 94.8+. 0-4 with YPP 6.3 or less, 8-1 with 6.4+. 1-3 allowing yards per rush 4.8+. 0-3 allowing 118+ rushing yards. 2-5 facing 27+ rush attempts.
There is a team by team breakdown showing specific stats that are solid indicators for each team. I have kept off this summary some trends that are clear but work counter-intuitive to the impact said statistic should have on the impact of a game – such as the NYJ are 6-2 with 4.0 or less yards per rush. That is spurious correlation, which means there is a relationship between the two but it’s is more random instead of one being a driver of the other. We can see some clear high level trends to target based on the information above, such as how key Robert Griffin III’s play is to the success of the Washington Redskins. We all know their defense struggles some, especially versus the pass, but the key driver of their ATS success has to do with their offense, and more specifically, how well they are passing the ball – look no further than the QBR metric I call out.
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