Sunday, January 26, 2014

GOLF SELECTIONS WK4

Last week's results:


Humana Challenge
Howell III 33/1 : T58
Overton 66/1 : T38

Volvo Tournament of Champions
Harrington 66/1 : MC
Quiros 80/1 : T31


This week's selections on the PGA Tour (we passed on European Tour's Qatar Masters):

Farmers Insurance Open

To Win:
Watson 33/1
Hoffman 80/1

Top American without Woods
1/2* Snedeker 11/1
1/2* Perez 45/1


**As a reminder all selections are for 1* to track results easier unless otherwise noted


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Thursday, January 16, 2014

GOLF SELECTIONS Wk3

Last week's results:

Sony Open
Howell III 20/1 : T8
Gay 40/1 : T32

Volvo Tournament of Champions
Uihlein 28/1 : 34th
Aiken 66/1 : T8


This week's selections on both the PGA & European Tour:

Humana Challenge
Howell III 33/1
Overton 66/1

Abu Dhabi Championship
Harrington 66/1
Quiros 80/1


**As a reminder all selections are for 1* to track results easier unless otherwise noted


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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

NFL 2013: Divisional Playoffs Sunday

Here were the two write-ups and selections that were sent to clients on Sunday 1/12:

3* Panthers : I would wait to put this in as line currently sits at a Pick, and public is still all over SF so never know - this line may get back up to +2.5 where I would suggest hook to get +3 in what should be a close game.  My summary: this line is off IMO, and we have already seen some movement with Carolina money pushing this down towards a pick.  I set this # at CAR favored by more than a FG, but figured it would be adjusted some because of the public's love affair with SF - but this was too much of a move.  I also typically like to take teams that are seeking revenge in the same season like SF is here, but think Carolina matches up well against SF negating that some.  In the first matchup between these teams neither team did much offensively, and there was a 0 TOM - so no impact there obviously.  What we did see is Kaepernick under pressure a ton, and he was outplayed by Newton in the Stick - hard to see a scenario where CK outplays Newton in Carolina this Sunday, especially through the air.  Both teams will struggle moving the ball, turnovers will be of the utmost importance (SF is way overdue for a bad TOM game), but I look for the Carolina defense to make a few big plays and be the difference.  Also of note is 3rd downs - Carolina's offense ranks 4th while SF's defense is 5th; on flip side SF's offense is 15th while Carolina's defense is 10th - considering both teams are extremely strong on both sides of the ball in first downs rushing (which shows success on early downs as well as physicality picking up short 3rd downs running the ball) expect the QB who plays better to lead his team to the win - both QBs can and will run the rock, who does it better especially on 3rd downs could be the difference.  I have the Panthers rated higher in my performance ratings, and the difference in this game will be the Panthers defense vs. the Niners offense.

4* Broncos : I am all over Denver in this game.  I set this # above 10 in all my models, but only one of the models shows a variance above 3pts which is the cut-off for showing value.  One thing to remember about the earlier meeting between these teams in Denver was both DRC & Welker missed the game for Denver - they will both be back as will Champ Bailey.  San Diego's defense is just bad, there arent many ways around that.  They are yielding 4.5ypc, 7.2yppa - two areas Denver will take advantage of.  Expect a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno setting up passing plays down the field; on flip side the Broncos will stack the box against the Chargers rushing attack and make Rivers beat their man to man coverage - a coverage that will now have DRC and Bailey in there compared to 2nd stringers last time around.  SD is easily the least efficient team remaining in the playoffs checking in at just 24th in the NFL in yards per point offensively; Denver is #1 in that area, and doesn't figure to be impacted negatively in any way in this game because they are at home, and have Welker back in the slot.  Losing to the Bolts actually helps Denver in this spot as does losing to the Ravens last season - expect Denver to play extremely well.

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Sunday, January 12, 2014

NFL 2013: Divisional Playoffs Saturday

I only had a play on one of the two games, but look at my write-up supporting the Patriots that went to my clients:

Patriots : I really like the favorite here.  Despite the Colts winning last week on a miracle comeback the better team went home, and the Colts continue to get "lucky" winning games they shouldn't....that will be tough sledding in NE this weekend.  Both offenses do have an edge so I expect alot of points, but give the edge to NE as they have faced the 2nd toughest schedule of opponent defenses, are at home, and have the better QB - especially in the playoffs.  One area defensively NE is solid in is pass defense checking in at #8, and that will be the difference Saturday night.  No team is more efficient in the red zone and goal to go situations than New England, and scoring TDs versus kicking FGs will be key.  Indianapolis has not performed well in my ratings again this season, was blown out in the KC game according to my ratings, continues to have poor TOM but wins games - hard to figure out.  But in this spot I feel the Patriots will really have alot of success running the ball with Blount against the Colts 25th ranked rush defense (which the Chiefs would have done last week and advanced had Charles not been injured early), setting up the play action pass...but make no mistake, this will be a grind it out affair for the Pats probably running the ball 30+ times.  New England wins and covers in a high scoring shootout.

Not bad.  Will post Sunday's writeups once games are over, win or lose.

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Friday, January 10, 2014

NBA 2013-2014: Performance Ratings, Power Ratings & Projected Playoff Seeds thru 01/09/14


OFFENSE
DEFENSE
TOTAL
Current Wins
Current SOS
TEAM
SUM
RANK
SUM
RANK
SUM
RANK
Wins
RANK
SOS
RANK
Minnesota
38
2
44
6
82
1
17
13
0.513
6
Indiana
61
14
24
1
85
2
28
1
0.488
20
Toronto
48
9
45
7
93
3
17
13
0.524
3
Portland
30
1
64
15
94
4
27
3
0.499
16
LA Clippers
43
5
54
11
97
5
25
6
0.511
10
Oklahoma City
50
10
47
8
97
5
27
3
0.513
6
Houston
39
3
62
14
101
7
23
8
0.512
9
San Antonio
66
16
37
2
103
8
28
1
0.514
5
Charlotte
69
18
41
3
110
9
15
16
0.479
26
Denver
44
6
67
17
111
10
18
12
0.509
12
Memphis
47
8
67
17
114
11
15
16
0.523
4
Sacramento
45
7
69
19
114
11
11
28
0.534
1
Chicago
74
24
42
4
116
13
15
16
0.485
21
Golden State
73
23
43
5
116
13
24
7
0.508
13
Miami
52
12
64
15
116
13
27
3
0.478
27
Atlanta
70
21
50
9
120
16
19
11
0.476
28
Washington
69
18
51
10
120
16
16
15
0.474
29
Phoenix
53
13
70
20
123
18
21
9
0.508
13
New Orleans
40
4
86
29
126
19
15
16
0.513
6
Cleveland
77
25
55
12
132
20
12
25
0.481
24
Brooklyn
51
11
82
27
133
21
14
20
0.495
18
Detroit
66
16
71
21
137
22
14
20
0.485
21
Orlando
82
28
56
13
138
23
10
29
0.498
17
Dallas
64
15
77
24
141
24
20
10
0.510
11
New York
69
18
72
22
141
24
13
23
0.494
19
LA Lakers
79
27
78
25
157
26
14
20
0.508
13
Boston
77
25
82
27
159
27
13
23
0.481
24
Philadelphia
92
30
73
23
165
28
12
25
0.485
21
Utah
71
22
95
30
166
29
12
25
0.530
2
Milwaukee
90
29
78
25
168
30
7
30
0.468
30
               
Similar to my NFL Performance Ratings these break each team down using the metrics & statistics I have tested and found to be of the highest correlation to team success.  One aspect to keep in mind is the ratings above are best when lower compared to NFL ratings that are best when higher.  We can use these ratings numerous ways, identifying teams that may be over or under valued, or also for total players identifying which matchups could produce more or less points. 

Biggest movers over last 7 days as measured by Overall Performance Ranking: DEN +7, SAC +7, WAS +5, BRO +3, DAL (4), NO (4), DET (6), ATL (7)

Based on these ratings & how teams have performed in the win/loss column through yesterday’s games (01/09), here are a few teams to be both bullish and bearish on:

Bullish (looking for teams whose true performance has not led to as many victories as suggested statistically): Minnesota, Toronto, and Charlotte for 4th consecutive week; Chicago for 2nd consecutive week; Denver, Memphis & Sacramento newly minted bulls.

Bearish (opposite of Bullish comments above): Phoenix for 4th consecutive week; Dallas for 2nd consecutive week.

Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the Performance Rankings as a base:

HOME
ROAD
TEAM
Power Rating
Power Rating
Minnesota
115.5
113.0
Indiana
117.1
112.6
Toronto
113.5
111.5
Portland
114.8
111.3
LA Clippers
114.9
110.9
Oklahoma City
114.9
110.9
Houston
113.8
110.3
San Antonio
113.6
110.1
Charlotte
111.1
109.1
Denver
111.5
109.0
Memphis
110.5
108.5
Sacramento
110.5
108.5
Chicago
110.8
108.3
Golden State
111.8
108.3
Miami
112.3
108.3
Atlanta
111.2
107.7
Washington
109.7
107.7
Phoenix
110.8
107.3
New Orleans
109.9
106.9
Cleveland
108.5
106.0
Brooklyn
108.4
105.9
Detroit
107.3
105.3
Orlando
107.2
105.2
Dallas
107.8
104.8
New York
106.8
104.8
LA Lakers
104.5
102.5
Boston
104.3
102.3
Philadelphia
103.4
101.4
Utah
103.3
101.3
Milwaukee
103.0
101.0

These are actually Power Ratings that can be used when handicapping nightly matchups.  Let’s examine each of tonight’s games using the ratings above & see if we can identify some teams to target – since we commenced this analysis two weeks ago these plays have gone 5-0:

Washington @ Indiana (-9): my power ratings suggest this # should be IND -9.5, right on target.
Detroit (-2.5) @ Philadelphia: my power ratings suggest this # should be DET -2, right on target.
Houston (-3) @ Atlanta: my power ratings suggest this # should be ATL -1, so we have value on the Hawks tonight.  Keep in mind however that according to my performance ratings above the Hawks fell the furthest of any NBA team in the last week, suggesting they are not playing solid basketball right now.
Phoenix @ Memphis (-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MEM -3, right on target.
Charlotte @ Minnesota (-9.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be MIN -6.5 leaving it on the fringe of a value play.  Considering how big this line is, and how well Charlotte rates in my performance ratings above I will officially NOT call this a value play (also considering I prefer to have a greater than 3pt variance between line & my ratings; I also expect this # to drop as the day goes on).
Dallas (-2) @ New Orleans: my power ratings suggest this # should be NO -5, suggesting a lot of value on Pelicans here.  Also considering the Mavericks are a bear team, and the fact New Orleans rates higher than Dallas, is at home, and is listed as an underdog here and we are backing the Pelicans.
Miami (-5) @ Brooklyn: my power ratings suggest this # should be a Pick so we have a lot of value on the Nets here.  But with emotional levels being so key when handicapping any nightly sports, and the Heat are coming off a loss last night, it’s tough to back the underachieving Nets in this spot.
Chicago (-4) @ Milwaukee: my power ratings suggest this # should be CHI -5, right on target.
Cleveland @ Utah (-2.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be CLE -2.5 so we have 5pts of value on the Cavaliers here.  Keep an eye on injuries in this game before making a final decision.
Orlando @ Sacramento (-7.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be SAC -5.5, right on target.
Boston @ Golden State (-11.5): my power ratings suggest this # should be GS -9.5, right on target.
LA Lakers @ LA Clippers (-11): my power ratings suggest this # should be LAC -12.5, right on target.

Lastly let’s take a look at wins by team in three critical buckets: SU to date, ATS to date & SU projected at season’s end:
Current Wins
ATS Wins
Projected Wins
TEAM
Wins
RANK
Wins
RANK
Wins
RANK
Minnesota
17
13
19
8
50.42
7
Indiana
28
1
23
2
58.80
1
Toronto
17
13
20
5
48.60
10
Portland
27
3
21
4
48.56
11
LA Clippers
25
6
22
3
53.50
4
Oklahoma City
27
3
19
8
53.03
5
Houston
23
8
18
13
47.04
12
San Antonio
28
1
19
8
58.75
2
Charlotte
15
16
20
5
36.20
20
Denver
18
12
16
17
43.24
14
Memphis
15
16
14
25
42.36
15
Sacramento
11
28
13
28
32.73
22
Chicago
15
16
14
25
33.98
21
Golden State
24
7
18
13
51.89
6
Miami
27
3
16
17
57.92
3
Atlanta
19
11
20
5
41.01
17
Washington
16
15
19
8
40.46
18
Phoenix
21
9
24
1
49.18
8
New Orleans
15
16
13
28
42.19
16
Cleveland
12
25
16
17
30.99
24
Brooklyn
14
20
16
17
28.75
26
Detroit
14
20
14
25
40.31
19
Orlando
10
29
15
22
29.38
25
Dallas
20
10
19
8
48.74
9
New York
13
23
15
22
43.90
13
LA Lakers
14
20
18
13
21.61
28
Boston
13
23
17
16
31.13
23
Philadelphia
12
25
15
22
22.11
27
Utah
12
25
16
17
20.13
29
Milwaukee
7
30
12
30
19.85
30

Of note from this matrix is the middle column – this entire matrix is sorted according to where the team’s stacked up in the Performance Ratings above – with that mind we can see the top nine teams in performance are all within the top 8 of ATS winners in the NBA besides Houston – keep an eye on the Rockets making an ATS run if they maintain the same level of play.  Last week the only outlier we mentioned were the Raptors, whom we expected to go on a successful ATS run – they have now won 8 straight games against the #.

This formula has proved to be very accurate over the years at projecting not only the order at which teams will finish in the standings but also the actual wins teams will wind up with come the end of the regular season (estimated to have an error of +/- 6 wins).  Based on these projections as of 01/02 the playoffs would set up like this:

Western Conference
#1 San Antonio 59-23
#2 LA Clippers 54-28
#3 Oklahoma City 53-29
#4 Golden State 52-30
#5 Minnesota 50-32
#6 Phoenix 49-33
#7 Dallas 49-33
#8 Portland 49-33

Eastern Conference
#1 Indiana 59-23
#2 Miami 58-34
#3 Toronto 49-33
#4 New York 44-38
#5 Atlanta 41-41
#6 Washington 40-42
#7 Detroit 40-42
#8 Charlotte 36-46

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