2015 NCAA Tournament Bracketology – Projected Field thru action on 01/29/15

This is our second installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament and comes as January winds down over this coming weekend.  

Before jumping into this week’s breakdown let’s take a quick look back comparing my projected field last week with ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.  Setting aside automatic bids & focusing on at-large teams Lunardi had in the following:

• Tulsa: in my “Next Five Out”
• Wyoming: not in my analysis at all meaning I have 43 teams ahead of them for an at-large bid
• Louisiana Tech: also not in my analysis, see Wyoming comment

To summarize I have Tulsa on the fringes of earning an at-large while the other two teams are not even on my radar as far as earning an at-large bid.

Here are the three teams I had in:

• Washington: in Lunardi’s “Next Four Out”
• Davidson: in Lunardi’s “First Four Out”
• BYU: not on Lunardi’s list

When I look at each set of three teams I would certainly lean towards my selections (I guess that’s fairly obvious since it is my bracketology) over his, but would be interested in hearing from others who disagree with me, him, or have any comments overall on those six teams.

Now that we briefly looked back at last week’s differences (which we will do every week) let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection!  Below we breakdown each conference into three buckets initially (with a fourth bucket “life support” coming in our next installment along with a more detailed breakdown – see last year’s Bracketology entries to get a feel for next week’s template): 

1) Automatic Bid

2) Looking Good [teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]

3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]

**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference**

**To add some color to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through action on Thursday January 29.  For one bid leagues I will also show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not selected as my automatic bid entrant to give a feel for their competition**

**Last key to remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them later out of blue.  Leveraging that idea further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not want to slide teams down levels, only up.  Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a level at this point in the season**

America East: Stony Brook #111 (Albany #218)

American Athletic: SMU #69

                Looking Good: Cincinnati #55

                Need Wins: Temple #48, Tulsa #62, Memphis #141, UConn #99

Atlantic Ten: VCU #8

                Need Wins: Davidson #42, Dayton #58, George Washington #64, Rhode Island #93

ACC: Virginia #12

                Looking Good: Duke #1, North Carolina #18, Louisville #9, Notre Dame #112

                Need Wins: Miami #60, NC State #34, Syracuse #47, Clemson #87, Pittsburgh #61

Atlantic Sun: North Florida #166 (Florida Gulf Coast #205)

Big 12: Kansas #2

                Looking Good: Iowa State #35, West Virginia #14, Oklahoma #20, Texas #27

                Need Wins: Baylor #7, Oklahoma State #21, Kansas St. #49

Big East: Villanova #4

                Looking Good: Butler #5, Providence #24, Georgetown #25

                Need Wins: Seton Hall #37, Xavier #11, St. John’s #59

Big Sky: Eastern Washington #211 (Northern Arizona #137)

Big South: High Point #123 (Gardner-Webb #106)

Big Ten: Wisconsin #10

                Looking Good: Maryland #52, Indiana #56

                Need Wins: Ohio State #31, Michigan State #28, Iowa #32, Illinois #36, Michigan #43, Purdue #57, Nebraska #118, Penn State #127, Minnesota #44

Big West: Long Beach State #82 (UCSB #72)

Colonial: William & Mary #102 (Northeastern #163)

Conference USA: Old Dominion #63 (Western Kentucky #73)

                If OLD DOMINION does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid.  The Monarchs have gone 2-0 vs. Top 50 RPI teams: win over RPI #38 LSU on a neutral court & a home win over RPI #4 VCU.  They have also gone 3-1 vs. RPI #51-100 for a total mark of 5-1 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.

Horizon: Cleveland State #66 (Green Bay #84)

Ivy: Yale #39 (Harvard #89)

MAAC: Iona #173 (Canisius #151)

MAC: Bowling Green #124 (Buffalo #65)

MEAC: North Carolina Central #142 (Norfolk State #215)

Missouri Valley: Wichita State #15

                If WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field.  The Shockers are currently 7-2 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.

                Need Wins: Northern Iowa #76

Mountain West: San Diego State #33

                If SAN DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field.  The Shockers are currently 6-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams including a signature win over RPI #11 Utah earlier in the season.

                Need Wins: Colorado State #80

Northeast: St. Francis NY #170 (St. Francis PA #189)

Ohio Valley: Murray State #113 (Eastern Kentucky #75)

Pac 12: Arizona #6

                Looking Good: Utah #13

                Need Wins: Stanford #22, Washington #134, Oregon St. #126, Oregon #96, UCLA #23

Patriot: Bucknell #213 (Holy Cross #188)

SEC: Kentucky #3

                Looking Good: Arkansas #30, Georgia #45

                Need Wins: LSU #95, Texas A&M #40, Ole Miss #46, Tennessee #81, Alabama #54, Florida #16

Southern: Wofford #110 (Chattanooga #140)

Southland: Stephen F. Austin #68 (Sam Houston State #101)

SWAC: Texas Southern #203 (Southern #229)

Summit: South Dakota State #169 (Oral Roberts #86)

Sun Belt: Georgia Southern #159 (Georgia State #135)

West Coast: Gonzaga #17

                If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool. 

                Need Wins: St Mary’s #53, BYU #26

WAC: New Mexico State #107 (Chicago State #227)

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32

LOOKING GOOD: 17 (up from 15 last week with West Virginia & Georgia added)

Currently I project 49 of the 68 bids are earned.  

NEED WINS: 43 (two added this week were Clemson & Penn State)

That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 19 open bids. 

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference): 

Temple (LAST FIVE IN)

Davidson

Dayton

Miami, Fla

NC State

Syracuse

Baylor

Oklahoma State

Seton Hall

Xavier (LAST FIVE IN)

Ohio State

Michigan State

Iowa

Northern Iowa (LAST FIVE IN)

Colorado State (LAST FIVE IN)

Stanford

LSU

Texas A&M

Ole Miss (LAST FIVE IN)

FIRST FIVE OUT – alphabetical order by conference:

Tulsa

Illinois

Michigan

St. Mary’s

BYU

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

ACC (8)

B12 (7)

BE (6): lost St. John’s

B10 (6)

SEC (6): added Texas A&M and Ole Miss

P12 (3): lost Washington

A10 (3)

AAC (3): added Temple

MWC (2)

MVC (2)

**Additional team that fell off from last week was BYU, moving the WCC to a 1-bid conference**

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NCAAB 2015: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] through Sunday January 25

Here is our second installment of the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday January 25 (SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings; DUN = Dunkel Index Rankings):

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK		KP	BPI	RPI	SAG	DUN
Kentucky	399.9	1		1	1	2	1	1
Kansas	395.9	2		11	10	1	10	18
Butler	385.5	3		22	25	17	17	32
Villanova	383.7	4		7	8	6	8	6
Duke	379.4	5		8	7	7	4	8
Baylor	374.9	6		15	19	16	16	19
Arizona	372.4	7		4	5	5	6	5
VCU	360.4	8		18	18	4	21	17
Wisconsin	355.3	9		6	4	8	5	3
Wichita State	351.9	10		9	13	13	13	20
Utah	348.2	11		5	9	11	7	11
Louisville	347.8	12		14	11	18	12	10
Gonzaga	347.7	13		3	3	9	3	4
Virginia	346.5	14		2	2	3	2	2
West Virginia	338.4	15		16	14	15	14	13
Florida	335.6	16		36	33			23
Oklahoma State	332.6	17		29		34	31	29
North Carolina	331.4	18		10	6	10	9	7
Xavier	331.1	19		24	22	32	26
Providence	327.2	20				20	30
San Diego State	327.0	21		26	35	27	33
Oklahoma	325.2	22		12	20	30	18	14
Brigham Young	322.6	23						24
South Carolina	321.1	24						36
Georgetown	318.6	25		23	17	12	22
North Carolina State	317.8	26			30		36
Michigan State	312.7	27		27	27		24	28
UCLA	309.8	28
Iowa	309.6	29						30
Stanford	309.1	30		31	31	32	32	35
Arkansas	309.0	31			32	22	35	26
Illinois	307.6	32
Arizona State	307.6	33
Iowa State	307.3	34		25	23	21	20	15
Ohio State	303.3	35		20	15		15	12
Texas	302.2	36		17	26	25	19	21

I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week & will continue that format going forward.  Why?  I figured there are 32 automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of other five sources:

#37 Seton Hall (DUN #27)

#40 Georgia (KP #28, BPI #21, RPI #24)

#41 Texas A&M (RPI #35)

#45 Ole Miss (KP #34)

#48 Davidson (KP #33, BPI #34, SAG #29)

#50 Miami, FL (SAG #25)

#56 Cincinnati (KP #32, RPI #28, DUN #31)

#58 Maryland (KP #30, BPI #24, RPI #14, SAG #23, DUN #16)

#66 SMU (KP #21, BPI #28, RPI #19, SAG #27, DUN #22)

#68 Syracuse (DUN #34)

#69 Indiana (RPI #31, SAG #34, DUN #33)

#72 Colorado State (RPI #29)

#75 Dayton (BPI #29, RPI #26, DUN #25)

#79 Northern Iowa (KP #19, BPI #16, RPI #23, SAG #28)

#90 LSU (KP #35, BPI #36)

#148 Notre Dame (KP #13, BPI #12, RPI #36, SAG #11, DUN #9)

Let’s take a closer look at Notre Dame as they are a big time outlier compared to the polls, other power indices & record.  If you followed my NCAAF SBPI this season you will most likely draw comparisons between these Fighting Irish and the Florida State Seminoles, who I had ranked in the mid-50s most of the season – much lower obviously than any other poll or power index.  Why is ND checking in so low?  Strength of schedule is the culprit no doubt.  I think the better question is to ask Ken Pomeroy how he can have the Irish ranked #13 with the following metrics, per his site:

Irish offense ranked #1 vs. the 173^rd toughest schedule of opponent’s defense

Irish defense ranked #153 vs. the 284^th toughest schedule of opponent’s offense

DOES THAT EQUAL Irish overall #13 vs. the 255^th toughest schedule?

I do not see how those metrics add up to his ranking.  And since his website is really the only one of the five sources I compare my metrics to that offers up some numbers/support behind their rankings I cannot compare others to mine.  But it’s seems fairly obvious to me his support does not equal the ranking he gives Notre Dame.

New this week, but an analysis we showed in our NCAAF SBPI articles that people enjoyed, is the variance report that shows team’s movement over the last week.  Today we will show team’s that had a 50 spot or greater change in their ranking inclusive of all conferences:

Team	18-Jan	25-Jan	Change
Prairie View A&M	176	257	(81)
Texas Christian	293	213	80
Southern	134	209	(75)
DePaul	200	134	66
Akron	191	136	55
Lamar	155	210	(55)
Idaho	194	247	(53)
North Carolina Central	72	125	(53)
Northern Colorado	297	244	53
Texas Tech	215	162	53
USC Upstate	216	269	(53)
Wagner	140	193	(53)
Norfolk State	129	179	(50)

As we can see most of the big moves were in the lower level conferences where a very strong or weak performance can impact a team’s full season metrics typically more than higher level conference teams.  With that point in mind here is another matrix that isolates Power 6 conference moves over the last week – we will show the Top 10 changes only (it’s just coincidence all ten of these teams improved in their ranking; that will not be the case each week):

Team	18-Jan	25-Jan	Change
DePaul	200	134	66
Texas Tech	215	162	53
Washington	182	133	49
Northwestern	169	126	43
Mississippi State	232	190	42
Nebraska	160	118	42
USC	205	165	40
Pittsburgh	96	57	39
LSU	128	90	38
Virginia Tech	281	243	38

Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by conference:

RANK	CONFERENCE	AVG RATING	TOP 36
1	BE	304.9	5
2	B12	303.9	7
3	ACC	276.6	5
4	SEC	275.6	4
5	B10	273.5	5
6	P12	268.5	5
7	WCC	253.6	2
8	A10	240.1	1
9	MVC	228.7	1
10	HORIZON	221.3
11	AAC	215.0
12	MAC	211.7
13	MWC	209.6	1
14	BIG WEST	203.9
15	IVY	196.5
16	CUSA	193.9
17	OVC	189.1
18	SOCON	182.1
19	BIG SOUTH	179.5
20	SUN BELT	178.3
21	CAA	178.1
22	SOUTHLAND	175.0
23	SUMMIT	175.0
24	BIG SKY	173.1
25	PATRIOT	166.0
26	MAAC	164.3
27	WAC	161.8
28	NEC	159.1
29	AMER EAST	157.6
30	INDEPENDENT	154.3
31	ASUN	153.3
32	MEAC	148.1
33	SWAC	135.4

For this week, and moving forward, I have added in a new column to this portion of the article that shows the average rating of every team in a conference.  To further clarify these figures, for example, the Big East, whom retains the #1 spot again, has an average rating of 304.9 for the 10 teams in their conference.  By looking at the first matrix in this article we can see that 304.9 average rating would fall between the 34^th best team in country Iowa State & the 35^th best team in the country Ohio State.  The Big 12 remains right on the heels of the Big East for the top conference in the country according to SBPI, falling just 1.0 short of taking over that spot.  What is the biggest driver between these two conferences?  The bottom of the Big 12, namely Texas Tech (#162) & TCU (#213) are both rated well below the worst Big East team DePaul (#134).  In addition the 2^nd worst Big East team is Creighton, who checks in at #65 with Marquette just one spot ahead of the Blue Jays at #64.  So measuring top to bottom the Big East is the strongest conference in the country – a lot of which is driven by only having one awful team in the SBPI while many other conferences have multiple teams below DePaul.

Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10, BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK		KP	BPI	RPI	SAG	DUN
VCU	360.4	8		18	18	4	21	17
Wichita State	351.9	10		9	13	13	13	20
Gonzaga	347.7	13		3	3	9	3	4
San Diego State	327.0	21		26	35	27	33
Brigham Young	322.6	23						24
Yale	294.6	39
Illinois State	288.4	42
Saint Mary's	280.7	46
Davidson	279.2	48		33	34		29
Boise State	274.5	49
Old Dominion	272.3	52
Temple	272.2	53
Tulsa	270.3	54
Cincinnati	269.4	56		32		28		31
Stephen F. Austin	266.5	60
La Salle	260.8	62
George Washington	260.1	63
Southern Methodist	259.1	66		21	28	19	27	22
Western Kentucky	259.0	67
Cleveland State	257.3	70

Examining this group closer as far as NCAA Tournament at-large bids go it’s very unlikely any teams outside the Top 5 (VCU, Wichita State, Gonzaga, San Diego State & BYU) would earn an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tournament – especially if that loss came before the championship game.  And of those five the top 3 are locks to be dancing with or without the automatic bid; San Diego State would be likely to earn a bid but not a lock should they lose in their conference tournament; BYU likely needs to at least reach the championship game in the WCC Tournament to feel good about their chances.  Keep in mind there is of course a lot of games to be played – but for these teams to earn at-large bids a lot of their work, for good or bad, was completed in the OOC portion of their schedule.

Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Basketball SBPI:

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK
Nicholls State	106.9	342
Liberty	105.3	343
UMBC	103.8	344
Stetson	103.3	345
Maine	95.8	346
Kennesaw State	92.7	347
Grambling State	92.0	348
Central Connecticut State	88.0	349
Florida A&M	63.3	350
Central Arkansas	54.7	351

Only change to the bottom ten teams this week was Nicholls State moving down to #342 from #325 replacing Texas A&M CC who rose from #342 to #339 this week.  Last week Nicholls State lost to Texas A&M CC at home by 3, lost to Sam Houston State 62-39 at home but beat Central Arkansas (lowest ranked team in college basketball each of last two editions) by 10 on road.

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com

Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com

Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015