This is our first installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes a couple weeks into conference play.
Before jumping into this season’s breakdown let’s take a
look back at last year’s first installment which we published on January 8
& did very well projecting the field, especially considering how early it
was posted. The one area we struggled
some were the smaller conferences: there were 22 conferences that received one
bid & we only projected 10 of the 22 correct – that area of a bracketology
is clearly the toughest. After those 22
teams are accounted for we are left with 46 open bids & we nailed 36 of
those 46 – here are more details on the 10 we missed (teams in italic &
bold we included in our projection but they missed field):
SMU: in our “first five out” category meaning they
narrowly missed our field
St. Joseph’s: earned the A10 automatic bid
Florida State: missed field
Georgetown: missed field
Providence: earned the Big East automatic bid
Minnesota: missed field
Stanford: in our “first five out” category
California: in our “first five out” category
Missouri: missed field
Arkansas: missed field
BYU: in our “first five out” category
To summarize four of our “first five out” teams wound up
earning a bid; two teams earned their conference’s automatic bid otherwise
there is a good chance they would have missed field; and five teams we
projected in did not earn a bid. Considering
this projection was posted 2 months in advance of Selection Sunday those
results are excellent – add in fact that our final bracketology of last year
only missed on one team & this exercise proves valuable.
Now that we have some context on last year let’s jump into
the 2015 projection! Below we breakdown
each conference into three buckets initially (with a fourth bucket
“life support” coming in February as the picture continues to sort itself out):
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference**
**For this edition,
to add some more color to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through
action on Thursday January 22. For one
bid leagues I will also show the SBPI ranking of the 2nd team in the
conference to give a feel for their competition**
**Last key to
remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my
breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme
longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them
later out of blue. Leveraging that idea
further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them
up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not
want to slide teams down levels, only up.
Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a
level at this point in the season**
America East: Stony
Brook #77 (Albany #201)
American Athletic:
Cincinnati #47
Looking Good: SMU #53
Need Wins: Tulsa #47, Temple #56, UConn
#100, Memphis #131
Atlantic Ten: VCU
#8
Need Wins: Davidson #41, Dayton
#75, George Washington #54, Rhode Island #74
ACC: Virginia #11
Looking Good: Duke #7, North
Carolina #17, Louisville #14, Notre Dame #174
Need Wins: Miami #59, NC State #24,
Syracuse #78, Pittsburgh #70
Atlantic Sun: North
Florida #136 (Northern Kentucky #191)
Big 12: Kansas #2
Looking Good: Iowa State #30,
Oklahoma #23, Texas #35
Need Wins: West Virginia #16, Baylor
#9, Oklahoma State #18, Kansas St. #60
Big East: Villanova
#4
Looking Good: Butler #3, Providence
#19, Georgetown #26
Need Wins: Seton Hall #38, Xavier
#15, St. John’s #64
Big Sky: Eastern
Washington #170 (Northern Arizona #127)
Big South: Gardner-Webb
#101 (Coastal Carolina #113)
Big Ten: Wisconsin
#13
Looking Good: Indiana #82, Maryland
#52
Need Wins: Michigan State #31, Iowa
#29, Ohio State #36, Illinois #40, Michigan #58, Nebraska #132, Minnesota #42
Big West: Long
Beach State #81 (UCSB #62)
Colonial: William
& Mary #109 (Hofstra #165)
Conference USA: Old
Dominion #61 (Western Kentucky #55)
If OLD
DOMINION does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large
bid. The Monarchs have gone 2-0 vs. Top
50 RPI teams including a win over LSU on a neutral court & a home win over VCU.
Horizon: Cleveland
State #57 (Green Bay #90)
Ivy: Yale #28
(Harvard #68)
MAAC: Iona #146
(Canisius #175)
MAC: Buffalo #85
(Toledo #79)
MEAC: North
Carolina Central #95 (Norfolk State #163)
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State #6
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Need Wins: Northern Iowa #86
Mountain West: San
Diego State #22
Need Wins: Colorado State #71
Northeast: St.
Francis NY #159 (St. Francis PA #158)
Ohio Valley: Murray
State #123 (Morehead State #84)
Pac 12: Arizona #5
Looking Good: Utah #12
Need Wins: Stanford #25, Washington
#143, Oregon State #108, UCLA #32, Oregon #106
Patriot: Colgate
#183 (Holy Cross #142)
SEC: Kentucky #1
Looking Good: Arkansas #27
Need Wins: Georgia #39, LSU #103, Tennessee
#96, Texas A&M #44, Ole Miss #43, Alabama #51, South Carolina #34, Florida
#20
Southern: Wofford
#98 (Chattanooga #125)
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin #69 (Sam Houston State #111)
SWAC: Texas Southern
#179 (Southern #189)
Summit: Oral
Roberts #120 (South Dakota State #152)
Sun Belt: Georgia
Southern #114 (Georgia State #122)
West Coast: Gonzaga
#10
If GONZAGA
does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.
Need Wins: BYU #21, St
Mary’s #48
WAC: New Mexico
State #91 (Chicago State #190)
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 15
Currently I project 47
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 43
That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 21 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 21 open bids this is the way I see it
currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference
alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference):
Davidson
Dayton
Miami, Fla
NC State
Syracuse (last five IN)
West Virginia
Baylor
Oklahoma State (last five IN)
Seton Hall
Xavier (last five IN)
St. John’s (last five IN)
Michigan State
Iowa
Ohio State
Northern Iowa
Colorado State (last five IN)
Stanford
Washington
Georgia
LSU
BYU
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order by conference:
George Washington
Illinois
Michigan
Oregon State
UCLA
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 47 bids in 11 conferences; 21 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
ACC (8)
B12 (7)
BE (7)
B10 (6)
P12 (4)
SEC (4)
A10 (3)
AAC (2)
MWC (2)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)
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