Here is our fourth installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss
Power Index]. As a reminder this model
uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness &
efficiency in key statistical areas. New
this season I have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the
ratings to better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are
better scores (if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA
where lower grades were better). Here is
where each team stands through last night’s action:
Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide
some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or
lower than expected.
Memphis:
the Grizzlies remain in the top spot for the fourth consecutive installment of
the SBPI although during interim periods since last published various teams
have captured that top spot for a few days.
Toronto: despite
owning the best record in the Eastern Conference for a large portion of the
first half of the season the Raptors defense has forced a slip down to 5th
overall, and 3rd in the East trailing Chicago & Atlanta.
Golden State:
although the Warriors have the top record in the NBA they check in at #12 in
the ratings. GS does rate tops in
offensive EFG% & 2nd in defensive EFG% which is key to their
current record; however they do not perform at a high level in many other
areas, and could be in trouble in a playoff series when their shots aren’t
falling as they do not have much wiggle room to lean on other areas of strength
such as rebounding or turnovers.
Western
Conference: of the top 16 teams in the above ratings 11 are from the
West (almost unchanged from last edition).
New York: the
Knicks have been at the bottom in each edition, and I am not aware of another
ratings system that had anyone other than the Sixers in the bottom spot for
much of the first 2+ months of the season.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
Team
|
Home PR
|
Away PR
|
|
Golden
State
|
115.3
|
110.8
|
|
Atlanta
|
116.4
|
112.4
|
|
Portland
|
114.4
|
110.4
|
|
Washington
|
114.9
|
110.9
|
|
Memphis
|
116.5
|
113.0
|
|
Toronto
|
115.6
|
112.1
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
115.6
|
112.1
|
|
New
Orleans
|
113.9
|
110.4
|
|
San
Antonio
|
114.7
|
111.7
|
|
Dallas
|
114.2
|
111.2
|
|
Houston
|
114.6
|
111.6
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
113.3
|
110.3
|
|
Denver
|
113.3
|
110.3
|
|
Phoenix
|
110.1
|
107.6
|
|
Chicago
|
115.0
|
112.5
|
|
Cleveland
|
113.9
|
111.4
|
|
Milwaukee
|
110.3
|
107.8
|
|
Sacramento
|
111.3
|
109.3
|
|
Indiana
|
110.8
|
108.8
|
|
Boston
|
109.9
|
107.9
|
|
Brooklyn
|
107.9
|
105.9
|
|
Charlotte
|
111.7
|
109.7
|
|
Miami
|
109.1
|
107.1
|
|
Utah
|
113.0
|
111.0
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
109.1
|
107.1
|
|
Orlando
|
106.5
|
104.5
|
|
Detroit
|
112.0
|
110.0
|
|
Minnesota
|
109.9
|
107.9
|
|
New
York
|
100.5
|
98.5
|
|
Philadelphia
|
107.1
|
105.1
|
These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. As always
let’s take a look at Thursday night’s action using the above ratings:
New York at Milwaukee (-7): the above ratings would set this
at MIL -12 as the Knicks are one of the worst teams in this model’s
history. The pure edge in the ratings is
offset some by the fact the Bucks are currently 3rd best in ATS
performance this season while the Knicks are tied with the Cavaliers for worst
(those will eventually regress towards mean).
Oklahoma City (-1.5) at Houston: my ratings have this game
about HOU -4 but most of those #’s are obviously derived from the bulk of the
season where the Thunder did not have Westbrook or Durant in the lineup – hence
really making their total season rating above less than ideal to use in
handicapping their games from a pure line value perspective.
Cleveland (-6) at LA Lakers: my ratings have this game about
CLE -2.5 but again, both of these teams ratings have been impacted to some
degree by the absence of Lebron James & Kobe Bryant.
Now that we are roughly halfway through the season here is
our initial Pythagorean Theorem analysis of the season (1st section
shows SU record to date; second section shows what their full season record
would be using my regression formula; final section is where I take their SU
record to date, apply their regression win % to remaining games, and show what
I project their final season record to be):
|
SU RECORD
|
REGRESS
|
PROJECTED END OF SEASON
|
|||||||||
|
TEAM
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
||
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
26
|
13
|
66.7%
|
58
|
24
|
71.2%
|
57
|
25
|
69.1%
|
||
|
San
Antonio
|
24
|
16
|
60.0%
|
49
|
33
|
59.8%
|
49
|
33
|
59.9%
|
||
|
Miami
|
17
|
22
|
43.6%
|
32
|
50
|
38.9%
|
34
|
48
|
41.1%
|
||
|
Golden
State
|
31
|
5
|
86.1%
|
71
|
11
|
86.1%
|
71
|
11
|
86.1%
|
||
|
OklahomaCity
|
18
|
19
|
48.6%
|
40
|
42
|
49.2%
|
40
|
42
|
48.9%
|
||
|
Dallas
|
27
|
13
|
67.5%
|
63
|
19
|
77.3%
|
59
|
23
|
72.5%
|
||
|
Toronto
|
26
|
12
|
68.4%
|
56
|
26
|
67.9%
|
56
|
26
|
68.1%
|
||
|
Phoenix
|
23
|
18
|
56.1%
|
50
|
32
|
60.8%
|
48
|
34
|
58.4%
|
||
|
Washington
|
27
|
12
|
69.2%
|
52
|
30
|
63.6%
|
54
|
28
|
66.3%
|
||
|
Houston
|
27
|
12
|
69.2%
|
54
|
28
|
65.8%
|
55
|
27
|
67.5%
|
||
|
Memphis
|
27
|
11
|
71.1%
|
52
|
30
|
63.1%
|
55
|
27
|
66.8%
|
||
|
Indiana
|
15
|
25
|
37.5%
|
33
|
49
|
39.8%
|
32
|
50
|
38.7%
|
||
|
Minnesota
|
6
|
31
|
16.2%
|
19
|
63
|
23.7%
|
17
|
65
|
20.3%
|
||
|
New
York
|
5
|
35
|
12.5%
|
20
|
62
|
24.1%
|
15
|
67
|
18.4%
|
||
|
Portland
|
30
|
9
|
76.9%
|
53
|
29
|
64.0%
|
58
|
24
|
70.2%
|
||
|
Charlotte
|
15
|
25
|
37.5%
|
37
|
45
|
45.2%
|
34
|
48
|
41.5%
|
||
|
Chicago
|
26
|
14
|
65.0%
|
41
|
41
|
50.3%
|
47
|
35
|
57.5%
|
||
|
Brooklyn
|
16
|
23
|
41.0%
|
30
|
52
|
36.8%
|
32
|
50
|
38.8%
|
||
|
New
Orleans
|
19
|
19
|
50.0%
|
42
|
40
|
51.6%
|
42
|
40
|
50.8%
|
||
|
Detroit
|
14
|
25
|
35.9%
|
39
|
43
|
48.2%
|
35
|
47
|
42.3%
|
||
|
Atlanta
|
31
|
8
|
79.5%
|
55
|
27
|
67.3%
|
60
|
22
|
73.1%
|
||
|
Denver
|
18
|
20
|
47.4%
|
37
|
45
|
45.1%
|
38
|
44
|
46.2%
|
||
|
Cleveland
|
19
|
20
|
48.7%
|
34
|
48
|
41.9%
|
37
|
45
|
45.2%
|
||
|
Sacramento
|
16
|
22
|
42.1%
|
28
|
54
|
33.7%
|
31
|
51
|
37.6%
|
||
|
Boston
|
13
|
24
|
35.1%
|
40
|
42
|
48.7%
|
35
|
47
|
42.6%
|
||
|
Orlando
|
15
|
27
|
35.7%
|
28
|
54
|
34.3%
|
29
|
53
|
35.0%
|
||
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
12
|
27
|
30.8%
|
31
|
51
|
37.5%
|
28
|
54
|
34.3%
|
||
|
Utah
|
13
|
26
|
33.3%
|
28
|
54
|
34.2%
|
28
|
54
|
33.8%
|
||
|
Milwaukee
|
20
|
19
|
51.3%
|
44
|
38
|
53.5%
|
43
|
39
|
52.5%
|
||
|
Philadelphia
|
7
|
31
|
18.4%
|
13
|
69
|
15.3%
|
14
|
68
|
16.8%
|
||
Based on those records here are my current playoff
projections:
EASTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Atlanta [60-22] vs. #8 Detroit [35-47]
#2 Toronto [56-26] vs. #7 Boston [35-47]
#3 Washington [54-28] vs. #6 Cleveland [37-45]
#4 Chicago [47-35] vs. #5 Milwaukee [43-29]
We can expect Cleveland to obviously improve upon their
currently projected record based on the assumption Lebron James plays a bulk of
their final 43 games. Boston may also
finish worse than their projected 7th seed based on trading Rajon
Rondo, while Detroit could improve upon their final projected record based on
their hot streak since trading Josh Smith.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Golden State [71-11] vs. #8 Phoenix [48-34]
#2 Dallas [59-23] vs. #7 San Antonio [49-33]
#3 Portland [58-24] vs. #6 Memphis [55-27]
#4 LA Clippers [57-25] vs. #5 Houston [55-27]
The obvious team left out from above is the Oklahoma City
Thunder – although I have their projected final record at just 40-42, per my
comment above that should vastly improve with both Durant & Westbrook in
the lineup. But make no mistake about it
– they have A LOT of ground to pick up on Phoenix to take away their playoff
spot. Golden State is not likely to post
71 wins although the math currently says they will – I would expect somewhere
in low to mid 60s as far as wins for the Warriors. We can see, much like last year, the Suns at
48-34 are the 8th seed in the East – a team with such a record would
be the 4th seed in the East – huge difference.
WORST FIVE RECORDS
#30 Philadelphia 14-68
#29 New York 15-67
#28 Minnesota 17-65
#27 Utah 28-54
#26 LA Lakers 28-54
Thanks for reading.
In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article
approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football
winds down we will post this article more frequently.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
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