Here is our second installment of the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday January 25 (SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings; DUN = Dunkel Index Rankings):
ADJ RATINGS
|
||||||||
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
KP
|
BPI
|
RPI
|
SAG
|
DUN
|
|
Kentucky
|
399.9
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Kansas
|
395.9
|
2
|
11
|
10
|
1
|
10
|
18
|
|
Butler
|
385.5
|
3
|
22
|
25
|
17
|
17
|
32
|
|
Villanova
|
383.7
|
4
|
7
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
6
|
|
Duke
|
379.4
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
4
|
8
|
|
Baylor
|
374.9
|
6
|
15
|
19
|
16
|
16
|
19
|
|
Arizona
|
372.4
|
7
|
4
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
|
VCU
|
360.4
|
8
|
18
|
18
|
4
|
21
|
17
|
|
Wisconsin
|
355.3
|
9
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
5
|
3
|
|
Wichita State
|
351.9
|
10
|
9
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
20
|
|
Utah
|
348.2
|
11
|
5
|
9
|
11
|
7
|
11
|
|
Louisville
|
347.8
|
12
|
14
|
11
|
18
|
12
|
10
|
|
Gonzaga
|
347.7
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
|
Virginia
|
346.5
|
14
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
|
West Virginia
|
338.4
|
15
|
16
|
14
|
15
|
14
|
13
|
|
Florida
|
335.6
|
16
|
36
|
33
|
23
|
|||
Oklahoma State
|
332.6
|
17
|
29
|
34
|
31
|
29
|
||
North Carolina
|
331.4
|
18
|
10
|
6
|
10
|
9
|
7
|
|
Xavier
|
331.1
|
19
|
24
|
22
|
32
|
26
|
||
Providence
|
327.2
|
20
|
20
|
30
|
||||
San Diego State
|
327.0
|
21
|
26
|
35
|
27
|
33
|
||
Oklahoma
|
325.2
|
22
|
12
|
20
|
30
|
18
|
14
|
|
Brigham Young
|
322.6
|
23
|
24
|
|||||
South Carolina
|
321.1
|
24
|
36
|
|||||
Georgetown
|
318.6
|
25
|
23
|
17
|
12
|
22
|
||
North Carolina State
|
317.8
|
26
|
30
|
36
|
||||
Michigan State
|
312.7
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
24
|
28
|
||
UCLA
|
309.8
|
28
|
||||||
Iowa
|
309.6
|
29
|
30
|
|||||
Stanford
|
309.1
|
30
|
31
|
31
|
32
|
32
|
35
|
|
Arkansas
|
309.0
|
31
|
32
|
22
|
35
|
26
|
||
Illinois
|
307.6
|
32
|
||||||
Arizona State
|
307.6
|
33
|
||||||
Iowa State
|
307.3
|
34
|
25
|
23
|
21
|
20
|
15
|
|
Ohio State
|
303.3
|
35
|
20
|
15
|
15
|
12
|
||
Texas
|
302.2
|
36
|
17
|
26
|
25
|
19
|
21
|
|
I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week &
will continue that format going forward.
Why? I figured there are 32
automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so
including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it
takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.
Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI
Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of other five sources:
#37 Seton Hall (DUN #27)
#40 Georgia (KP #28, BPI #21, RPI #24)
#41 Texas A&M (RPI #35)
#45 Ole Miss (KP #34)
#48 Davidson (KP #33, BPI #34, SAG #29)
#50 Miami, FL (SAG #25)
#56 Cincinnati (KP #32, RPI #28, DUN #31)
#58 Maryland (KP #30, BPI #24, RPI #14, SAG #23, DUN #16)
#66 SMU (KP #21, BPI #28, RPI #19, SAG #27, DUN #22)
#68 Syracuse (DUN #34)
#69 Indiana (RPI #31, SAG #34, DUN #33)
#72 Colorado State (RPI #29)
#75 Dayton (BPI #29, RPI #26, DUN #25)
#79 Northern Iowa (KP #19, BPI #16, RPI #23, SAG #28)
#90 LSU (KP #35, BPI #36)
#148 Notre Dame (KP #13, BPI #12, RPI #36, SAG #11, DUN #9)
Let’s take a closer look at Notre Dame as they are a big
time outlier compared to the polls, other power indices & record. If you followed my NCAAF SBPI this season you
will most likely draw comparisons between these Fighting Irish and the Florida
State Seminoles, who I had ranked in the mid-50s most of the season – much
lower obviously than any other poll or power index. Why is ND checking in so low? Strength of schedule is the culprit no
doubt. I think the better question is to
ask Ken Pomeroy how he can have the Irish ranked #13 with the following
metrics, per his site:
Irish offense ranked #1 vs. the 173rd toughest
schedule of opponent’s defense
Irish defense ranked #153 vs. the 284th toughest
schedule of opponent’s offense
DOES THAT EQUAL Irish overall #13 vs. the 255th toughest
schedule?
I do not see how those metrics add up to his ranking. And since his website is really the only one
of the five sources I compare my metrics to that offers up some numbers/support
behind their rankings I cannot compare others to mine. But it’s seems fairly obvious to me his
support does not equal the ranking he gives Notre Dame.
New this week, but an analysis we showed in our NCAAF SBPI
articles that people enjoyed, is the variance report that shows team’s movement
over the last week. Today we will show
team’s that had a 50 spot or greater change in their ranking inclusive of all
conferences:
Team
|
18-Jan
|
25-Jan
|
Change
|
Prairie View A&M
|
176
|
257
|
(81)
|
Texas Christian
|
293
|
213
|
80
|
Southern
|
134
|
209
|
(75)
|
DePaul
|
200
|
134
|
66
|
Akron
|
191
|
136
|
55
|
Lamar
|
155
|
210
|
(55)
|
Idaho
|
194
|
247
|
(53)
|
North Carolina Central
|
72
|
125
|
(53)
|
Northern Colorado
|
297
|
244
|
53
|
Texas Tech
|
215
|
162
|
53
|
USC Upstate
|
216
|
269
|
(53)
|
Wagner
|
140
|
193
|
(53)
|
Norfolk State
|
129
|
179
|
(50)
|
As we can see most of the big moves were in the lower level
conferences where a very strong or weak performance can impact a team’s full
season metrics typically more than higher level conference teams. With that point in mind here is another matrix
that isolates Power 6 conference moves over the last week – we will show the
Top 10 changes only (it’s just coincidence all ten of these teams improved in
their ranking; that will not be the case each week):
Team
|
18-Jan
|
25-Jan
|
Change
|
DePaul
|
200
|
134
|
66
|
Texas Tech
|
215
|
162
|
53
|
Washington
|
182
|
133
|
49
|
Northwestern
|
169
|
126
|
43
|
Mississippi State
|
232
|
190
|
42
|
Nebraska
|
160
|
118
|
42
|
USC
|
205
|
165
|
40
|
Pittsburgh
|
96
|
57
|
39
|
LSU
|
128
|
90
|
38
|
Virginia Tech
|
281
|
243
|
38
|
Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by
conference:
RANK
|
CONFERENCE
|
AVG RATING
|
TOP 36
|
1
|
BE
|
304.9
|
5
|
2
|
B12
|
303.9
|
7
|
3
|
ACC
|
276.6
|
5
|
4
|
SEC
|
275.6
|
4
|
5
|
B10
|
273.5
|
5
|
6
|
P12
|
268.5
|
5
|
7
|
WCC
|
253.6
|
2
|
8
|
A10
|
240.1
|
1
|
9
|
MVC
|
228.7
|
1
|
10
|
HORIZON
|
221.3
|
|
11
|
AAC
|
215.0
|
|
12
|
MAC
|
211.7
|
|
13
|
MWC
|
209.6
|
1
|
14
|
BIG WEST
|
203.9
|
|
15
|
IVY
|
196.5
|
|
16
|
CUSA
|
193.9
|
|
17
|
OVC
|
189.1
|
|
18
|
SOCON
|
182.1
|
|
19
|
BIG SOUTH
|
179.5
|
|
20
|
SUN BELT
|
178.3
|
|
21
|
CAA
|
178.1
|
|
22
|
SOUTHLAND
|
175.0
|
|
23
|
SUMMIT
|
175.0
|
|
24
|
BIG SKY
|
173.1
|
|
25
|
PATRIOT
|
166.0
|
|
26
|
MAAC
|
164.3
|
|
27
|
WAC
|
161.8
|
|
28
|
NEC
|
159.1
|
|
29
|
AMER EAST
|
157.6
|
|
30
|
INDEPENDENT
|
154.3
|
|
31
|
ASUN
|
153.3
|
|
32
|
MEAC
|
148.1
|
|
33
|
SWAC
|
135.4
|
For this week, and moving forward, I have added in a new
column to this portion of the article that shows the average rating of every
team in a conference. To further clarify
these figures, for example, the Big East, whom retains the #1 spot again, has
an average rating of 304.9 for the 10 teams in their conference. By looking at the first matrix in this
article we can see that 304.9 average rating would fall between the 34th
best team in country Iowa State & the 35th best team in the
country Ohio State. The Big 12 remains
right on the heels of the Big East for the top conference in the country
according to SBPI, falling just 1.0 short of taking over that spot. What is the biggest driver between these two
conferences? The bottom of the Big 12,
namely Texas Tech (#162) & TCU (#213) are both rated well below the worst
Big East team DePaul (#134). In addition
the 2nd worst Big East team is Creighton, who checks in at #65 with
Marquette just one spot ahead of the Blue Jays at #64. So measuring top to bottom the Big East is
the strongest conference in the country – a lot of which is driven by only
having one awful team in the SBPI while many other conferences have multiple
teams below DePaul.
Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10,
BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:
ADJ RATINGS
|
||||||||
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
KP
|
BPI
|
RPI
|
SAG
|
DUN
|
|
VCU
|
360.4
|
8
|
18
|
18
|
4
|
21
|
17
|
|
Wichita State
|
351.9
|
10
|
9
|
13
|
13
|
13
|
20
|
|
Gonzaga
|
347.7
|
13
|
3
|
3
|
9
|
3
|
4
|
|
San Diego State
|
327.0
|
21
|
26
|
35
|
27
|
33
|
||
Brigham Young
|
322.6
|
23
|
24
|
|||||
Yale
|
294.6
|
39
|
||||||
Illinois State
|
288.4
|
42
|
||||||
Saint Mary's
|
280.7
|
46
|
||||||
Davidson
|
279.2
|
48
|
33
|
34
|
29
|
|||
Boise State
|
274.5
|
49
|
||||||
Old Dominion
|
272.3
|
52
|
||||||
Temple
|
272.2
|
53
|
||||||
Tulsa
|
270.3
|
54
|
||||||
Cincinnati
|
269.4
|
56
|
32
|
28
|
31
|
|||
Stephen F. Austin
|
266.5
|
60
|
||||||
La Salle
|
260.8
|
62
|
||||||
George Washington
|
260.1
|
63
|
||||||
Southern Methodist
|
259.1
|
66
|
21
|
28
|
19
|
27
|
22
|
|
Western Kentucky
|
259.0
|
67
|
||||||
Cleveland State
|
257.3
|
70
|
||||||
Examining this group closer as far as NCAA Tournament
at-large bids go it’s very unlikely any teams outside the Top 5 (VCU, Wichita
State, Gonzaga, San Diego State & BYU) would earn an at-large bid should
they lose in their conference tournament – especially if that loss came before
the championship game. And of those five
the top 3 are locks to be dancing with or without the automatic bid; San Diego
State would be likely to earn a bid but not a lock should they lose in their
conference tournament; BYU likely needs to at least reach the championship game
in the WCC Tournament to feel good about their chances. Keep in mind there is of course a lot of
games to be played – but for these teams to earn at-large bids a lot of their
work, for good or bad, was completed in the OOC portion of their schedule.
Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Basketball
SBPI:
ADJ RATINGS
|
||
Team
|
SUM
|
RANK
|
Nicholls State
|
106.9
|
342
|
Liberty
|
105.3
|
343
|
UMBC
|
103.8
|
344
|
Stetson
|
103.3
|
345
|
Maine
|
95.8
|
346
|
Kennesaw State
|
92.7
|
347
|
Grambling State
|
92.0
|
348
|
Central Connecticut State
|
88.0
|
349
|
Florida A&M
|
63.3
|
350
|
Central Arkansas
|
54.7
|
351
|
Only change to the bottom ten teams this week was Nicholls
State moving down to #342 from #325 replacing Texas A&M CC who rose from
#342 to #339 this week. Last week
Nicholls State lost to Texas A&M CC at home by 3, lost to Sam Houston State
62-39 at home but beat Central Arkansas (lowest ranked team in college
basketball each of last two editions) by 10 on road.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
No comments:
Post a Comment