Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
11
|
SEA
|
49.3
|
3
|
47.8
|
2
|
97.1
|
1
|
31
|
12
|
||||
9
|
CAR
|
46.9
|
7
|
48.1
|
1
|
95.0
|
2
|
32
|
10
|
||||
10
|
DEN
|
54.6
|
1
|
39.4
|
18
|
94.0
|
3
|
25
|
(4)
|
||||
7
|
DET
|
49.0
|
4
|
43.3
|
10
|
92.3
|
4
|
28
|
(8)
|
||||
9
|
NO
|
47.8
|
6
|
43.8
|
8
|
91.5
|
5
|
29
|
3
|
||||
8
|
CIN
|
41.5
|
13
|
47.4
|
3
|
88.9
|
6
|
26
|
(1)
|
||||
9
|
KC
|
43.0
|
11
|
42.4
|
12
|
85.4
|
7
|
27
|
14
|
||||
8
|
SF
|
39.7
|
20
|
44.6
|
7
|
84.3
|
8
|
5
|
6
|
||||
7
|
ARI
|
38.0
|
23
|
44.8
|
5
|
82.7
|
9
|
7
|
(1)
|
||||
3
|
WAS
|
45.8
|
9
|
36.5
|
21
|
82.3
|
10
|
16
|
(3)
|
||||
2
|
HOU
|
39.0
|
21
|
42.8
|
11
|
81.8
|
11
|
12
|
(12)
|
||||
5
|
TEN
|
40.7
|
16
|
40.5
|
17
|
81.2
|
12
|
22
|
2
|
||||
6
|
CHI
|
48.6
|
5
|
32.5
|
27
|
81.1
|
13
|
19
|
7
|
||||
5
|
SD
|
50.0
|
2
|
30.7
|
29
|
80.7
|
14
|
12
|
(5)
|
||||
7
|
PHI
|
46.3
|
8
|
34.2
|
25
|
80.5
|
15
|
23
|
7
|
||||
5
|
PIT
|
39.8
|
19
|
40.7
|
16
|
80.5
|
15
|
31
|
(4)
|
||||
9
|
NE
|
41.7
|
12
|
38.6
|
19
|
80.3
|
17
|
18
|
6
|
||||
5
|
GB
|
45.6
|
10
|
33.4
|
26
|
79.0
|
18
|
13
|
(4)
|
||||
4
|
BUF
|
37.2
|
24
|
41.7
|
13
|
78.9
|
19
|
15
|
2
|
||||
6
|
MIA
|
35.8
|
25
|
41.7
|
14
|
77.5
|
20
|
24
|
2
|
||||
6
|
BAL
|
31.7
|
30
|
45.7
|
4
|
77.4
|
21
|
18
|
(3)
|
||||
8
|
IND
|
41.1
|
15
|
35.5
|
24
|
76.5
|
22
|
8
|
6
|
||||
4
|
CLE
|
32.2
|
29
|
43.5
|
9
|
75.7
|
23
|
20
|
(9)
|
||||
5
|
STL
|
38.3
|
22
|
36.5
|
21
|
74.8
|
24
|
4
|
8
|
||||
5
|
NYG
|
33.4
|
28
|
40.8
|
15
|
74.2
|
25
|
12
|
(11)
|
||||
7
|
DAL
|
41.5
|
13
|
32.4
|
28
|
73.9
|
26
|
9
|
12
|
||||
5
|
NYJ
|
28.6
|
31
|
44.7
|
6
|
73.3
|
27
|
21
|
(18)
|
||||
4
|
OAK
|
35.4
|
26
|
37.6
|
20
|
73.0
|
28
|
14
|
(2)
|
||||
3
|
TB
|
34.9
|
27
|
35.5
|
23
|
70.4
|
29
|
1
|
10
|
||||
3
|
ATL
|
40.1
|
17
|
29.4
|
31
|
69.5
|
30
|
6
|
(9)
|
||||
3
|
MIN
|
39.9
|
18
|
28.6
|
32
|
68.5
|
31
|
3
|
(9)
|
||||
3
|
JAC
|
26.0
|
32
|
30.0
|
30
|
56.1
|
32
|
2
|
(4)
|
||||
Seattle is the newly minted #1 team in the performance
ratings, the first time all season they have reached the pinnacle – matter of
fact it’s the first time they have reached the top spot since I started these
ratings. The Seahawks are easily the
most balanced of the contenders checking in at #3 offensively along with #2
defensively. Over the last three weeks
they have posted an average game grade of 115, dominating their opponents with
an average margin of victory at 24 points.
QB Russell Wilson has posted a QB rating of 131+ in each of his last
three outings, and has not been below a rating of 91 in any of their last seven
games. With home field advantage in the
NFC playoffs all but officially sealed up after last night’s win over the
Saints, the Seahawks are clearly the cream of the NFC crop and will be tough to
take out in Seattle – they also rank #2 in home performance (for the second
straight season) averaging a grade of 107.1 (only trail New Orleans’ average grade
of 108.3, making it all the more important picking up that win on MNF) & #2
in home points margin at +18.7 (only trail Denver’s mark of +20.0). Carolina checks in at #2, and my performance
ratings have been bullish on the Panthers almost the entire season – way before
many other bloggers, analysts and handicappers picked up on their dominance (my
ratings have had the Panthers inside the Top 3 in each of the last 8
weeks! Carolina is buoyed by a stifling
defense that checks in at #1 in the NFL driven by a rushing defense ranked #3. Carolina has only posted a negative TOM in 2
games all season – and those games make up 2 of their 3 losses on the season! During their current 8 game win streak they
are outscoring their opponents by an average score of 26-12, showcasing that dominant
defense. Over their final 4 games of the
regular season they will face the Saints twice, along with a pair of games
against lowly Atlanta & NY Jets; they will likely need a sweep of the
Saints to win the NFC South since they currently have the same # of divisional
losses as New Orleans (2nd tiebreaker after head to head), but have
one more loss in conference games. The
first matchup between these two heavyweights will take place on SNF this
week. Denver has slipped to #3, their 2nd
straight week out of the top spot which they held for 9 consecutive weeks since
Wk3 action. However, when you adjust
these ratings for SOS the Broncos are definitely #2, and possibly ahead of even
Seattle who has played the 2nd weakest schedule in the NFL to
date. Denver continues to own the #1
offense in the NFL largely driven by the #1 passing game, but their defense has
slipped some in recent weeks – some of which has been driven by injuries. Over the first 6 weeks of the season Denver
posted an average grade of 103.1 including four 100+ grades with their lowest
mark during that time a 97.0 in their Wk5 win at Dallas; over their last 6
games they have posted an average grade of just 84.8, with only one game graded
over an 89 (a 98.0 in their home win over Washington in Wk8). Keep an eye on their injured defensive
players, along with weather in their last quarter of the season as their
passing game slips some when the temperature drops. Next up are the Lions, who have busted into
the Top 5 for the 2nd time this season (they were ranked #2 after
Wk1’s win over Minnesota). A huge reason
for their big jump into the Top 5 was last week’s destruction of the Green Bay
Packers – they graded to a 143.5, which is the top performance of any team in
any game this entire season! Besides
their Wk11 mark of 72.0 in a road loss at Pittsburgh they are averaging a grade
of 111.1 over their last 5 contests, and have posted a winning grade (any mark
over 80.0 in a game) in 9 of their 12 games this season. The biggest reason they only have 7 wins when
they should have at least 9 with their rating is a (8) TOM, proving once again
turnovers are one of the top two key statistics to winning NFL games. Rounding out the Top 5 are the New Orleans
Saints, who are coming off EASILY their worst performance of the season with a
grade of just 41.5 in last night’s big loss in Seattle. Before that game they only posted a losing
grade once all season – and that rating was a solid 76.0 in a road loss at
Chicago Wk5. The Saints have been
perhaps the most consistent team in the league this season, which is solid when
it comes to regular season play; but their ceiling also doesn’t appear to be as
high compared to some of the other notable contenders, which could be an issue
when the playoffs commence and they will be facing the best teams in the
NFL. What also is a potential big deal
come January is the fact they will likely NOT have home field advantage in the
NFC – we all know they typically do not play their best offensive ball outside
the dome, but overall as a team they check in at just #19 in road performance
this season versus the 5th easiest slate of road contests! Among the playoff contenders in both
conferences that average road grade is “bested” by only the Cowboys who check
in at #31 in road performance – but at least that has come against the toughest
slate of road contests to date. The
Saints have been outscored on the road by an average of (3.7ppg), while Dallas
is almost identical at (4.3ppg). One
final note on the ratings this week and applicable going forward – we have
touched on it before but TOM is absolutely critical to success, but also could
raise flags for good or bad when applied.
What I mean by that is we can see the top 2 teams SEA & CAR have
posted a combined TOM of +22, while the #3 & #4 teams have posted a
combined (12) TOM; if those teams TOM were to flip or just better/worsen
slightly we could see a big time trickle-down effect to their performance, for
good or bad.
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
NW
|
42
|
1
|
AW
|
52
|
2
|
AN
|
65
|
3
|
NN
|
66
|
5
|
NS
|
66
|
5
|
NE
|
76
|
6
|
AS
|
77
|
7
|
AE
|
83
|
8
|
For the first time in quite some time this season the AFC
West no longer resides at the top of the pecking order – the NFC West has
reached the pinnacle, and by a wide margin at that. That huge jump to secure the top of the
divisional rankings was largely driven by the Arizona Cardinals who have gone
from consistently being ranked in the low 20s all the way up to currently 9th! That dramatic drive up the rankings has come
from the Cardinals averaging a robust 99.8 grade over their last 5 weeks in which
they have gone 4-1 ATS & SU. The AFC
West hasn’t fallen very far, just to #2; but all four of the divisions teams
have dropped in the ratings over the last month or so including the once
unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs who have dropped 3 straight after opening their
season with 9 wins. The AFC East remains
the lowest rated division while the NFC East, which often found itself at the
bottom of the divisional ratings, has jumped up to 6th.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk13. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
NE
|
11.33
|
4.67
|
PHI
|
8.99
|
7.01
|
|
MIA
|
7.87
|
8.13
|
DAL
|
8.70
|
7.30
|
|
NYJ
|
6.71
|
9.29
|
NYG
|
6.75
|
9.25
|
|
BUF
|
6.07
|
9.93
|
WAS
|
5.17
|
10.83
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
CIN
|
10.67
|
5.33
|
DET
|
9.64
|
6.36
|
|
BAL
|
7.67
|
8.33
|
CHI
|
8.33
|
7.67
|
|
PIT
|
7.25
|
8.75
|
GB
|
7.34
|
8.66
|
|
CLE
|
5.68
|
10.32
|
MIN
|
4.86
|
11.14
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
IND
|
10.22
|
5.78
|
NO
|
11.50
|
4.50
|
|
TEN
|
7.00
|
9.00
|
CAR
|
11.50
|
4.50
|
|
JAC
|
3.84
|
12.16
|
TB
|
4.58
|
11.43
|
|
HOU
|
3.75
|
12.25
|
ATL
|
4.53
|
11.47
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
DEN
|
13.15
|
2.85
|
SEA
|
13.66
|
2.34
|
|
KC
|
11.10
|
4.90
|
SF
|
10.38
|
5.62
|
|
SD
|
6.86
|
9.14
|
ARI
|
8.89
|
7.11
|
|
OAK
|
5.66
|
10.34
|
STL
|
6.36
|
9.64
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
#6 MIA @ #3 CIN
|
#6 SF @ #3 DET
|
|||||
#5 KC @ #4 IND
|
#5 CAR @ #4 PHI
|
|||||
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
#2 NE
|
#2 NO
|
|||||
Obviously, as the weeks continue to go by the playoff
picture becomes more and more secure.
But, looking back at my week by week projections of the playoffs, they
have been very solid this season as they have been the last 5 years. In the AFC current projection three of those
six teams have been in my projected playoff picture every week this year (DEN,
NE, CIN); KC has been in the playoffs 12 of 13 weeks (only left off following
Wk1), IND has been projected in 10 of the 13 weeks, leaving just the 6th
seed that has seen significant movement.
In the current version Miami holds down that spot (6th week
the Dolphins have been a projected playoff team), while Oakland, NY Jets and
Houston have also been projected to be the 6th seed since Wk5. In the NFC it’s the same story as three of
the six teams have been a projected playoff team the entire season (SEA, NO,
SF); DET has been included in 10 of the 13 weeks while Carolina and
Philadelphia have been in and out of the projections. Carolina had been battling mostly GB for one
of two NFC wild cards, but since Rodgers has been injured Carolina has more of
a stranglehold on that spot. Philadelphia & Dallas have been exchanging
the NFC East crown all season - Philly has been the projected winner of the
division after the first two weeks and the last four weeks; Dallas was the
projected winner the remaining weeks. One last note this week on the 1st pick in the 2014 NFL Draft - amazingly the Houston Texans, who were projected to be a Super Bowl contender by many this offseason, are currently in position to have that pick; it is likely the game on TNF between them and the Jaguars will decide that selection.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:
1
|
DEN
|
2
|
SEA
|
3
|
CAR
|
4
|
NO
|
5
|
SF
|
6
|
DET
|
7
|
CIN
|
8
|
NE
|
9
|
KC
|
10
|
ARI
|
11
|
CHI
|
12
|
NYG
|
13
|
WAS
|
14
|
TEN
|
14
|
SD
|
16
|
PIT
|
17
|
IND
|
18
|
PHI
|
18
|
MIA
|
20
|
STL
|
21
|
DAL
|
22
|
BAL
|
23
|
GB
|
24
|
HOU
|
25
|
BUF
|
26
|
OAK
|
27
|
TB
|
28
|
NYJ
|
28
|
CLE
|
28
|
ATL
|
31
|
MIN
|
32
|
JAC
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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