On the eve of this BIG DANCE tipping off tomorrow afternoon
(I do not really count these “First Four” games) let’s examine odds for winning
both the championship & each region.
I have played out the NCAA Tournament 1,000 times using my
SBPI ratings and here are the results, first looking at winning the
championship:
|
TEAM
|
WIN TITLE %
|
REGION
|
SEED
|
SBPI RANK
|
ODDS [X/1]
|
|
ARIZONA
|
22.6%
|
WEST
|
1
|
2
|
8
|
|
FLORIDA
|
17.5%
|
SOUTH
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
|
VILLANOVA
|
11.2%
|
EAST
|
2
|
3
|
35
|
|
DUKE
|
6.5%
|
SOUTH
|
3
|
4
|
18
|
|
LOUISVILLE
|
5.3%
|
MIDWEST
|
4
|
9
|
8
|
|
VIRGINIA
|
5.2%
|
EAST
|
1
|
7
|
18
|
|
TENNESSEE
|
4.4%
|
MIDWEST
|
11
|
6
|
115
|
|
VCU
|
3.2%
|
SOUTH
|
5
|
11
|
90
|
|
MICHIGAN
|
2.1%
|
MIDWEST
|
2
|
13
|
30
|
|
KANSAS
|
1.6%
|
SOUTH
|
2
|
17
|
10
|
|
BAYLOR
|
1.1%
|
WEST
|
6
|
16
|
75
|
|
SYRACUSE
|
0.9%
|
SOUTH
|
3
|
15
|
18
|
|
UCLA
|
0.2%
|
SOUTH
|
4
|
23
|
45
|
|
MEMPHIS
|
0.2%
|
EAST
|
8
|
34
|
125
|
|
PROVIDENCE
|
0.2%
|
EAST
|
11
|
20
|
225
|
|
OKLAHOMA
|
0.2%
|
WEST
|
5
|
27
|
75
|
|
KENTUCKY
|
0.2%
|
MIDWEST
|
8
|
21
|
50
|
|
GONZAGA
|
0.1%
|
WEST
|
8
|
55
|
125
|
|
CREIGHTON
|
0.1%
|
WEST
|
3
|
30
|
35
|
|
OREGON
|
0.1%
|
WEST
|
7
|
25
|
100
|
|
BYU
|
0.1%
|
WEST
|
10
|
51
|
500
|
The SBPI gave us 21 possible winners of the upcoming NCAA
Tournament, and the matrix above is sorted by winning %. Here is how those 21 teams break down by
region:
EAST (4), SOUTH (6), WEST (7), MIDWEST (4)
Although the West has the most teams FOUR of those SEVEN are
projected to win the championship just once out of 1,000 simulations, and
another projected to win twice (Oklahoma).
Two of the top four teams are from the South region in Florida &
Duke. And only Arizona, Florida &
Villanova were projected to win at least 100 of 1,000 simulations – making that
trio the favorites using this analysis.
Next let’s take a look at each region, once again sorted by
winning % - first up EAST:
|
TEAM
|
WIN %
|
SEED
|
ODDS [X/1]
|
|
VILLANOVA
|
43.2%
|
2
|
4
|
|
VIRGINIA
|
24.7%
|
1
|
3
|
|
MICHIGAN
STATE
|
12.8%
|
4
|
2.5
|
|
CINCINNATI
|
6.1%
|
5
|
18
|
|
IOWA
STATE
|
4.5%
|
3
|
6
|
|
PROVIDENCE
|
3.7%
|
11
|
33
|
|
NORTH
CAROLINA
|
2.8%
|
6
|
14
|
|
UCONN
|
1.0%
|
7
|
16
|
|
MEMPHIS
|
0.6%
|
8
|
25
|
|
GEORGE
WASHINGTON
|
0.4%
|
9
|
50
|
|
HARVARD
|
0.1%
|
12
|
50
|
|
ST.
JOSEPHS
|
0.1%
|
10
|
50
|
|
COASTAL
CAROLINA
|
0.0%
|
16
|
N/A
|
|
DELAWARE
|
0.0%
|
13
|
N/A
|
|
UNC
CENTRAL
|
0.0%
|
14
|
N/A
|
|
MILWAUKEE
|
0.0%
|
15
|
N/A
|
Villanova is projected to win the East region 432 of the
1,000 simulations, and considering they are the third favorite odds wise (behind
Virginia & Michigan State) they may hold some value. Also considering if they were to reach the
Regionals in NYC at MSG they would have a certain home-court advantage of sorts. Cincinnati ranks ahead of Iowa State, while
Providence at 33/1 seems to also have value.
Of the 16 teams in the region just 4 were not projected to win it at
least one simulation.
Next up let’s examine the SOUTH:
|
TEAM
|
WIN %
|
SEED
|
ODDS [X/1]
|
|
FLORIDA
|
41.9%
|
1
|
1.5
|
|
OHIO
STATE
|
18.3%
|
6
|
14
|
|
VCU
|
13.8%
|
5
|
9
|
|
KANSAS
|
10.4%
|
2
|
4
|
|
PITT
|
6.2%
|
9
|
14
|
|
SYRACUSE
|
6.0%
|
3
|
5.5
|
|
UCLA
|
1.9%
|
4
|
10
|
|
COLORADO
|
0.7%
|
8
|
50
|
|
STANFORD
|
0.7%
|
10
|
40
|
|
NEW
MEXICO
|
0.1%
|
7
|
12
|
|
ALBANY
|
0.0%
|
16
|
N/A
|
|
STEPHEN
F. AUSTIN
|
0.0%
|
12
|
N/A
|
|
TULSA
|
0.0%
|
13
|
N/A
|
|
DAYTON
|
0.0%
|
11
|
N/A
|
|
WESTERN
MICHIGAN
|
0.0%
|
14
|
N/A
|
|
EASTERN
KENTUCKY
|
0.0%
|
15
|
N/A
|
This region is projected to be even more wide open than the
East as Florida is the favorite but the Gators are not projected to win as
often as Villanova; in addition this region has three other schools projected
to win the region at least 10% of the time, and just below them are Syracuse
& Pitt who are both certainly not going to be an easy out. There is a ton of value in this region if you
believe Florida will lose prior to reaching the Final Four. This region also has just ten of the sixteen
teams projected to win the region at least once in 1,000 simulations.
Third we will examine the WEST:
|
TEAM
|
WIN %
|
SEED
|
ODDS [X/1]
|
|
ARIZONA
|
48.5%
|
1
|
1.75
|
|
WISCONSIN
|
21.1%
|
2
|
4.25
|
|
SAN
DIEGO STATE
|
14.1%
|
4
|
10
|
|
BAYLOR
|
7.2%
|
6
|
14
|
|
CREIGHTON
|
3.7%
|
3
|
4.25
|
|
OREGON
|
1.9%
|
7
|
14
|
|
OKLAHOMA
|
1.7%
|
5
|
16
|
|
OKLAHOMA
STATE
|
0.9%
|
9
|
12
|
|
BYU
|
0.4%
|
10
|
66
|
|
GONZAGA
|
0.3%
|
8
|
18
|
|
NORTH
DAKOTA STATE
|
0.1%
|
12
|
50
|
|
NEBRASKA
|
0.1%
|
11
|
40
|
|
WEBER
ST
|
0.0%
|
16
|
N/A
|
|
NEW
MEXICO STATE
|
0.0%
|
13
|
N/A
|
|
UL
LAFAYETTE
|
0.0%
|
14
|
N/A
|
|
AMERICAN
|
0.0%
|
15
|
N/A
|
Arizona is the clear cut favorite in this region projected
to advance to the Final Four nearly 50% of the simulations. There seems to be some value on San Diego
State & Baylor, while Creighton is tied for the 2nd most likely
school to win the West according to Vegas but according to my simulations they
are projected to win just 37 of 1,000 – 5th best in the region. Somewhat surprising may be the fact Oklahoma
State is projected to win just 9 simulations – no value at all on the Cowboys.
Last up here is the breakdown of the MIDWEST:
|
TEAM
|
WIN %
|
SEED
|
ODDS [X/1]
|
|
DUKE
|
27.6%
|
3
|
3.5
|
|
LOUISVILLE
|
26.2%
|
4
|
1.6
|
|
MICHIGAN
|
16.0%
|
2
|
5.5
|
|
TENNESSEE
|
15.6%
|
11
|
25
|
|
KENTUCKY
|
5.3%
|
8
|
12
|
|
WICHITA
STATE
|
3.7%
|
1
|
4
|
|
ST
LOUIS
|
1.9%
|
5
|
20
|
|
KANSAS
STATE
|
1.6%
|
9
|
33
|
|
ARIZONA
STATE
|
0.8%
|
10
|
50
|
|
UMASS
|
0.5%
|
6
|
40
|
|
TEXAS
|
0.5%
|
7
|
33
|
|
NC
STATE
|
0.3%
|
12
|
35
|
|
CAL
POLY
|
0.0%
|
16
|
N/A
|
|
MANHATTAN
|
0.0%
|
13
|
N/A
|
|
MERCER
|
0.0%
|
14
|
N/A
|
|
WOFFORD
|
0.0%
|
15
|
N/A
|
Both of tonight’s “First Four” games take place in this region
thus I have advanced the higher rated team in each game according to the
SBPI. Of course anyone that follows
college basketball has heard how Wichita State was done no favors by the
committee who seemingly stacked their region – and my simulation further
supports that point. Look no further
than the #1 seed Shockers are just the 6th favorite to advance to
the Final Four from this region – wow, much lower than the other three #1
seeds. What’s more Duke won the most simulations,
which is somewhat surprising considering many are boasting about Louisville’s
chances at reaching another Final Four.
What you really want to search for here and in other
probability analyses that are posted around the internet is value – big variances
in projected winning % compared to a school’s odds. For example, going back to the last matrix on
the Midwest, Wichita State is listed at 4/1 to reach the Final Four from this
region; but my simulation shows they are the 6th most likely team to
do such, meaning there doesn’t seem to be a lot of value on the Shockers. And the same is true for teams in a
vice-versa situation such as Ohio State, who is the 2nd most likely
team to advance to the Final Four from the South region according to our
simulation, yet they are listed as long 14/1 odds to do so.
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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